【Couch Investor】我卖飞了Palantir，现在决定把它买回来

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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在今天的视频中

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我们将讨论Palantir公司

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Palantir是一个我多年前持有的头寸

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我大约在一年半前卖出

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股价一度涨至每股200美元

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随后下跌了50%，上周我首次买入

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在一年半的时间里

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我以每股107美元买入

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现在持有约100股

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我之前解释了为何最初卖出

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问题所在

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或许完全清仓是错误的

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这个头寸本不该清仓

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应该止盈了

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或许赚取了很多利润

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然后让剩余部分继续持有

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错误决策

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好的

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这次我多支付了约50%

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时隔一年半后重新买入

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当初卖出的主要原因是

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当时确实有增长

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实现了盈利

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但未达到超高速增长

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为了认为

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这里的溢价是合理的

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后来一个季度或两个季度后

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我们迎来了加速增长

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为何现在重新买入

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尽管目前仍处于

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我认为的高位溢价

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嗯

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我将解释

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在今天的视频中

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我们将分析定价指标

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回顾过去几个季度的变化

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当然还会分析DCF模型

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相关资料将在Google Drive免费提供

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访问谷歌网盘

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所有DCF分析同样免费

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链接将在下方置顶评论中

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现在我要强调的是，Palantir今日绝非便宜

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好的

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如果你尚未持有Palantir

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不必强行买入该股

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当初我卖出时

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随着股价不断攀升

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我说过最终会重新买入

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最终股价涨至120美元

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一百七十五

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甚至达到了

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两百美元当时可以买到

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但我说

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我是否愿意支付这个代价呢

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于是我等待了

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我等待着

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我等待着，幸运的是

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它在大约五十个百分点左右暴跌

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过去一年里

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已经上涨了15.6%

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并且经历了约4%

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8%左右的回撤

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即使有这回撤

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正如你所知

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这从来不是低价股对吧

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现在已成为市值2750亿美元的公司

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万亿市值

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前向市盈率130倍

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而当前67倍显然低得多

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如果采用第四季度市盈率

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同时考虑两年EPS增长率或预期增速

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得出的PEG比率接近1

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对我来说PEG比率接近1

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对于这家高利润率企业

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伴随疯狂增长

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上下利润线

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我认为这是本轮AI周期的最大赢家之一

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从资本开支角度看

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Palantir并无资本开支周期

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当前正经历AI应用推广周期

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因此在我看来

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我心想

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或许这是个信号

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或许现在该重新布局Palantir了

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因为Palantir是我长期关注的公司

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之前也曾持有过

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曾以十美元、七美元买入

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二十美元、三十美元

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一路涨至七十美元

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当然我卖出后它继续上涨

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所以好吧

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我不得不以高出50%的价格买入

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这没问题

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或许吧

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因为我之前清仓Palantir

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让我有机会买入Nebula

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让我有机会买入美光科技

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当然这些股票为我带来了巨大收益

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所以帕兰提尔

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如果我们看看这里几个指标

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其实这里有很多指标

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当然所有这些数据在财政AI上都可以查看

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描述下方也有链接和图钉评论

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使用可享15%折扣

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如果你使用的话

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如果你是新用户

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前两周可免费获得财政Pro

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那我们看到什么

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总收入增长

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看看这个

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这不是温和增长

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而是增长加速

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顺便说这数据是按季度统计

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如果看商业收入

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同样故事增长在加速

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政府收入

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同样总客户数增加

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我们已突破千人大关

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但没错

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这里增长率在下降

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这其实没问题

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尤其是看净美元留存率

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达到150%

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所以我不太担心

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好吧

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他们并未扩大客户账户

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或未加速增长

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呃

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这种增长

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我认为30%左右

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约1%的增长仍很出色

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尤其是已达千人规模后

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当净美元留存率约150%

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现在这样应该没问题

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再看运营利润率

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不同于许多其他公司

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这家公司增长极快且盈利能力提升

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你知道在不确定某些SaaS公司

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是否选择像ServiceNow这种极端案例

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不过我认为ServiceNow仍会表现优异

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或ServiceNow

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或Adobe

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或SAP等

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如今我们处于这种环境

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市场不确定这些公司能否生存或商业模式变化

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即未来利润可能不及过去十年

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在这样的市场中

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嗯 是的

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我宁愿支付更多来拥有一个属于自己的企业

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很明显他们将成为巨大的赢家

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这很清楚，因为我们看到增长正在加速

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通常当我们看到许多公司增长加速时

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可能以牺牲利润率为代价

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没错

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这是以部分利润为代价的

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嗯

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这里

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这就是

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完全相反

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当然我们观察到2021年左右

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即使到2024年末

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看运营利润率上升

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并向右移动

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自由现金流利润率也上升

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并向右移动

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这里确实有小幅下滑

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但仍达5.1%

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过去12个月5%

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毛利率

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84.1%

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1%

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净利润率

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43.9%

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同时经营现金流也增加

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并向右移动

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对我来说

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是的

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花了很长时间才重新投资Palantir

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但我认为价格合理

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这不是满仓配置

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甚至不是我组合中的大仓位

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现在约占2%左右

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但对我个人而言

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这很合理

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当我完全清仓时

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是的

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股价确实上涨了

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我感觉自己像个笨蛋

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但正如我所说

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用这笔钱买入其他股票

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那些股票表现优异

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Palantir过去一年半的表现

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但我感觉卖掉了优质业务

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离开优质业务

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因错误原因离开

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我想他并不出色

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这就是我重新入场的原因

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当我们进行评估测试时

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我们可以看到以下内容

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我们现在可以看到这一点

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Palantir的合理支付价格

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基于我自己的假设

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这些都是我的假设

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对某些人来说可能显得过于激进

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对其他人来说可能并不算激进

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这就是你可以使用这张表格并完成所需操作的原因

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为了获得你想要的可能结果

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或者你不想得到的结果

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因此我们每股大约得到131美元

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即12点

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现在有4%的上涨空间

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我正在设置

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当然是一头 bulls（牛市）

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一个基准和一个熊市情景

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所以如果我们查看

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让我现在展示这些假设

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基准情况为50%

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30%牛市和20%熊市

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老实说你甚至可以降低熊市情景

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但为了讨论方便和保守起见

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我们就这样设定

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因此对于Palantir

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你可能会说

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哦这个

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这些太疯狂了

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疯狂的数字

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当然

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这是一家屡超预期的公司

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一次又一次

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即使我们查看未来的市盈率和预期每股收益增长

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这就是市场预期的

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而市场总是错误

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但错误

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因为公司业绩超预期

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所以是的

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从收入来看

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今年增长80%

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我认为这并非不可能

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明年增长70%

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我认为这并非不可能

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然后我们是的

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增长率正在下降

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但这仍将是一家快速增长的公司

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我在此设定2035财年15%增长

246
00:08:55,789 --> 00:08:56,909
我不知道会发生什么

247
00:08:56,909 --> 00:08:59,940
正好九年之后

248
00:08:59,940 --> 00:09:01,799
但这些是我的假设

249
00:09:01,799 --> 00:09:06,820
我认为这家公司能维持这样的增长率多年

250
00:09:06,820 --> 00:09:07,990
许多年后

251
00:09:07,990 --> 00:09:10,950
我也在这里查看一年的边际空间

252
00:09:10,950 --> 00:09:11,210
十

253
00:09:11,210 --> 00:09:12,570
这里五十个百分点

254
00:09:12,570 --> 00:09:13,129
用于基础

255
00:09:13,129 --> 00:09:13,710
用于子弹

256
00:09:13,710 --> 00:09:15,500
五二然后用于熊市

257
00:09:15,500 --> 00:09:16,899
这正是事物所在

258
00:09:16,899 --> 00:09:19,059
也许这家公司行不通

259
00:09:19,059 --> 00:09:20,220
所以是四五

260
00:09:21,259 --> 00:09:23,710
当我们查看所有数据

261
00:09:23,710 --> 00:09:27,090
可以看到财政三年五期的营收

262
00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:29,850
预计将达到约九十亿八千

263
00:09:29,850 --> 00:09:31,750
七十五亿美元

264
00:09:31,750 --> 00:09:33,289
四十九点三

265
00:09:33,289 --> 00:09:34,929
七亿美元左右

266
00:09:34,929 --> 00:09:36,850
这里约四十点

267
00:09:36,850 --> 00:09:39,330
七十三亿美元自由现金流

268
00:09:39,330 --> 00:09:40,730
基础情形下

269
00:09:40,730 --> 00:09:41,830
乐观情形下

270
00:09:41,830 --> 00:09:43,409
这里就在这里

271
00:09:43,409 --> 00:09:43,789
顺便说一句

272
00:09:43,789 --> 00:09:46,049
不要触碰这些数字

273
00:09:46,049 --> 00:09:48,190
只修改蓝色数字

274
00:09:48,190 --> 00:09:50,070
在此假设下

275
00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:50,789
请

276
00:09:50,789 --> 00:09:54,899
乐观情形下十年营收为一百二十

277
00:09:54,899 --> 00:09:55,620
七点

278
00:09:55,620 --> 00:09:55,960
四

279
00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:57,100
八亿美元

280
00:09:57,100 --> 00:09:58,779
这些数字可能显得疯狂

281
00:09:58,779 --> 00:10:02,059
但我们谈论的是十年后

282
00:10:02,059 --> 00:10:03,019
这里我们有

283
00:10:03,019 --> 00:10:04,700
五十六点三

284
00:10:04,700 --> 00:10:07,179
四亿美元左右和五五

285
00:10:07,179 --> 00:10:07,919
刚超过五

286
00:10:07,919 --> 00:10:10,460
五亿美元自由现金流

287
00:10:10,460 --> 00:10:11,779
关于悲观情形

288
00:10:11,779 --> 00:10:12,960
再次提及悲观情形

289
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,019
价格增长大幅放缓

290
00:10:16,019 --> 00:10:18,600
公平价值在Palantir

291
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,019
若悲观情形成立

292
00:10:20,019 --> 00:10:21,710
这里大幅降低

293
00:10:21,710 --> 00:10:23,929
正如许多公司所示

294
00:10:23,929 --> 00:10:26,350
并非因为我极度悲观

295
00:10:26,350 --> 00:10:27,039
哦

296
00:10:27,039 --> 00:10:28,360
他们不再增长了

297
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:28,519
不

298
00:10:28,519 --> 00:10:29,240
你可以观察

299
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:30,559
看看这里的增长率

300
00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:32,750
这些增长率仍然非常出色

301
00:10:32,750 --> 00:10:34,710
但要证明当前股价的合理性

302
00:10:34,710 --> 00:10:36,289
并非为了证明当前股价的合理性

303
00:10:36,289 --> 00:10:37,509
这还不够

304
00:10:37,509 --> 00:10:39,389
但即便十年后

305
00:10:39,389 --> 00:10:42,779
到财年时营收将达到七十二亿美元

306
00:10:42,779 --> 00:10:43,899
二零三五年

307
00:10:43,899 --> 00:10:45,120
二十六点

308
00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:47,820
五十九亿美元左右

309
00:10:47,820 --> 00:10:49,659
二五点

310
00:10:49,659 --> 00:10:53,059
二十九亿美元的自由现金流

311
00:10:53,059 --> 00:10:55,559
然后如果你想看这个

312
00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,139
终端增长率调整

313
00:10:57,139 --> 00:10:58,059
小幅利润率

314
00:10:58,059 --> 00:10:59,600
第十年营收增长

315
00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,299
你会得到这些数字

316
00:11:01,299 --> 00:11:03,519
这使得计算稍微容易些

317
00:11:03,519 --> 00:11:04,539
或许是一个价格

318
00:11:04,539 --> 00:11:05,349
不过确实

319
00:11:05,349 --> 00:11:06,489
你可以调整这些数字

320
00:11:06,489 --> 00:11:08,668
然后所有数据都会更新

321
00:11:08,668 --> 00:11:09,548
如果股价

322
00:11:09,548 --> 00:11:11,809
假设我们进入参数设置

323
00:11:11,809 --> 00:11:14,049
并假设这里为零增长

324
00:11:14,049 --> 00:11:16,159
仅作为极端情况

325
00:11:16,159 --> 00:11:18,120
然后你会看到下行风险

326
00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,879
系统会提示降低持仓

327
00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:21,799
这挺酷的

328
00:11:21,799 --> 00:11:23,809
总的来说

329
00:11:23,809 --> 00:11:25,049
总而言之

330
00:11:25,049 --> 00:11:28,839
我认为我们正在分析一个非常好的企业

331
00:11:28,839 --> 00:11:31,999
可能并非最佳价位

332
00:11:31,999 --> 00:11:35,700
尽管显然存在十二点四%的上涨空间

333
00:11:35,700 --> 00:11:37,919
但也许你想要更多安全边际

334
00:11:37,919 --> 00:11:39,399
这里的安全边际是否合理

335
00:11:39,399 --> 00:11:41,590
尽管在乐观情景下

336
00:11:41,590 --> 00:11:42,929
隐含股价为二百零四美元

337
00:11:42,929 --> 00:11:44,190
隐含股价

338
00:11:44,190 --> 00:11:46,769
此情景基本对应当前状态

339
00:11:46,769 --> 00:11:47,809
一百一十八美元

340
00:11:47,809 --> 00:11:50,490
而悲观情景为五点五美元

341
00:11:50,490 --> 00:11:51,070
所以

342
00:11:51,070 --> 00:11:52,379
当然当你有

343
00:11:52,379 --> 00:11:54,019
实际是二十%的悲观情景

344
00:11:54,019 --> 00:11:54,899
五十基准

345
00:11:54,899 --> 00:11:55,940
三十乐观

346
00:11:55,940 --> 00:11:57,860
此处二十%的悲观情景

347
00:11:57,860 --> 00:12:02,250
当然会拉低加权平均价格

348
00:12:02,250 --> 00:12:03,769
你可以调整这些数值

349
00:12:03,769 --> 00:12:06,330
但这就是我做这个的原因

350
00:12:06,330 --> 00:12:09,690
我之所以现在再次选择这个调色板，原因只有一个

351
00:12:09,690 --> 00:12:15,919
当然价格已经下调了50%，peg比率约为1.3

352
00:12:15,919 --> 00:12:18,940
过去一个季度我们见证了增长加速

353
00:12:18,940 --> 00:12:21,379
根据公司自身的表述

354
00:12:21,379 --> 00:12:25,649
他们认为短期内不会出现放缓迹象，而且第三点

355
00:12:25,649 --> 00:12:27,210
像Palantir这样的公司

356
00:12:27,210 --> 00:12:27,429
他们

357
00:12:27,429 --> 00:12:29,029
他们已经非常明确地表示

358
00:12:29,029 --> 00:12:31,070
一再强调

359
00:12:31,070 --> 00:12:33,289
对他们来说这些模型

360
00:12:33,289 --> 00:12:34,110
他们并不在意

361
00:12:34,110 --> 00:12:35,710
市面上有多少模型

362
00:12:35,710 --> 00:12:36,269
谁胜出

363
00:12:36,269 --> 00:12:37,210
谁落败

364
00:12:37,210 --> 00:12:39,000
他们根本不在乎

365
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:40,399
他们确保的是

366
00:12:40,399 --> 00:12:41,440
如果你是企业

367
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,360
如果需要系统运作

368
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:44,720
我们会让它正常运转

369
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,940
你需要理解数据

370
00:12:46,940 --> 00:12:48,759
但我们不是ChatGPT

371
00:12:48,759 --> 00:12:49,840
我们不是熵模型

372
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,399
顺便提一下

373
00:12:51,399 --> 00:12:54,039
外界存在一个极端的看空观点认为

374
00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:55,539
哦，熵模型或开放

375
00:12:55,539 --> 00:12:58,389
将取代Palantir

376
00:12:58,389 --> 00:12:59,750
这绝不会发生

377
00:12:59,750 --> 00:13:03,870
我认为企业更倾向于多模型并存

378
00:13:03,870 --> 00:13:05,129
当你拥有

379
00:13:05,129 --> 00:13:05,730
让我们称之为

380
00:13:05,730 --> 00:13:08,990
Palantir提供的底层基础设施

381
00:13:08,990 --> 00:13:09,409
P

382
00:13:09,409 --> 00:13:10,690
同时还有Anthology

383
00:13:10,690 --> 00:13:13,980
在此基础上可以叠加他们所说的KLM

384
00:13:13,980 --> 00:13:16,059
或者使用任何你想要的模型

385
00:13:16,059 --> 00:13:18,039
或许某个模型更适合这个场景

386
00:13:18,039 --> 00:13:19,940
另一个模型更适合那个场景

387
00:13:19,940 --> 00:13:23,960
你希望Palantir处于底层基础

388
00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:28,409
你不希望所有资源都聚焦在云和Tropic

389
00:13:28,409 --> 00:13:30,700
或只专注于Chat

390
00:13:30,700 --> 00:13:33,379
GPT、OpenAI或Copilot

391
00:13:33,379 --> 00:13:34,899
不过我们得坦诚

392
00:13:34,899 --> 00:13:38,590
真正使用Copilot的只有被迫使用的用户

393
00:13:38,590 --> 00:13:40,149
但在我看来

394
00:13:40,149 --> 00:13:44,289
在AI时代，必将颠覆许多事物

395
00:13:44,289 --> 00:13:45,769
将彻底改变许多领域

396
00:13:45,769 --> 00:13:46,909
众多行业

397
00:13:46,909 --> 00:13:48,360
众多企业

398
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,320
我认为Palantir处于绝佳位置

399
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:53,779
他们的增长势头非常迅猛

400
00:13:53,779 --> 00:13:56,279
无需花费如此多的钱

401
00:13:56,279 --> 00:14:00,870
这在我看来已经是比其他人巨大的竞争优势

402
00:14:00,870 --> 00:14:02,950
我要向所有人明确说明

403
00:14:02,950 --> 00:14:06,509
我不指望Palantir股价重返两百

404
00:14:06,509 --> 00:14:08,450
短期内或很快就会实现

405
00:14:08,450 --> 00:14:08,830
顺便说一句

406
00:14:08,830 --> 00:14:10,889
如果你看一些技术指标

407
00:14:10,889 --> 00:14:14,639
我们仍处于周线一百下方

408
00:14:14,639 --> 00:14:15,360
这里没错

409
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,039
我们必须尝试重返上方

410
00:14:17,039 --> 00:14:18,120
目前在一百二十

411
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:19,990
这是日线图上的情况

412
00:14:19,990 --> 00:14:23,049
我们仍处于无主之地

413
00:14:23,049 --> 00:14:23,490
所以是的

414
00:14:23,490 --> 00:14:26,309
可能底部在一百零七美元左右

415
00:14:26,309 --> 00:14:29,700
但从技术分析角度看

416
00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:33,360
Palantir仍处于无主之地

417
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,000
股价可能再次回调

418
00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:37,500
跌至一百

419
00:14:37,500 --> 00:14:41,110
甚至可能跌破一百

420
00:14:41,110 --> 00:14:43,269
在两百零七百零六左右

421
00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:45,049
当时严重超卖

422
00:14:45,049 --> 00:14:50,480
但Palantir的情况与其他SaaS公司不同

423
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:52,539
对于Palantir这类公司

424
00:14:52,539 --> 00:14:55,440
增长正在加速

425
00:14:55,440 --> 00:15:01,769
利润率扩张，而其他软件公司有增长

426
00:15:01,769 --> 00:15:04,330
但增长并未加速

427
00:15:04,330 --> 00:15:05,379
或大幅增长

428
00:15:05,379 --> 00:15:08,120
且利润率未扩张

429
00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,059
或保持持平

430
00:15:10,059 --> 00:15:14,379
市场中的问题是那些被惩罚的公司

431
00:15:14,379 --> 00:15:17,950
必须向市场证明AI不会再次颠覆他们

432
00:15:17,950 --> 00:15:21,139
Palantir目前没有这个问题

433
00:15:21,139 --> 00:15:23,240
至少他们没有

434
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:23,659
哦

435
00:15:23,659 --> 00:15:25,379
AI正在颠覆我们的业务

436
00:15:25,379 --> 00:15:26,200
不，对我来说

437
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:31,149
很明显AI是业务表现优异的主要原因

438
00:15:31,149 --> 00:15:34,110
也是未来预期表现优异的原因

439
00:15:34,110 --> 00:15:36,570
记住商业和政府领域

440
00:15:36,570 --> 00:15:37,549
尤其是政府

441
00:15:37,549 --> 00:15:41,370
我认为该领域可以继续快速增长

442
00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:44,070
甚至商业领域

443
00:15:44,070 --> 00:15:44,289
是的

444
00:15:44,289 --> 00:15:47,549
Palantir市值达两百七十五亿美元

445
00:15:47,549 --> 00:15:53,200
当前收入并不算多

446
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,509
但按当前增速

447
00:15:55,870 --> 00:16:02,029
未来几年收入将大幅增长

448
00:16:02,029 --> 00:16:08,470
如果公司如此盈利且利润率保持高位

449
00:16:08,470 --> 00:16:08,649
是的

450
00:16:08,649 --> 00:16:11,909
我认为这未来会成为一只回购机器

451
00:16:11,909 --> 00:16:13,629
我不认为需要分红

452
00:16:13,629 --> 00:16:18,740
虽然分红问题总是那些突然冒出来的常见问题

453
00:16:18,740 --> 00:16:20,259
比如技术或什么的

454
00:16:20,259 --> 00:16:23,769
但总体来看关于先锋公司

455
00:16:23,769 --> 00:16:25,350
为什么我买它呢

456
00:16:25,350 --> 00:16:28,470
出于我在视频中提到的所有原因

457
00:16:28,470 --> 00:16:29,929
我有点后悔

458
00:16:29,929 --> 00:16:30,149
是的

459
00:16:30,149 --> 00:16:32,370
我完全清仓了仓位

460
00:16:32,370 --> 00:16:33,828
应该止盈了

461
00:16:33,828 --> 00:16:36,548
这正是我之后调整的原因

462
00:16:36,548 --> 00:16:40,259
像美光科技这样的公司途中也获利了结

463
00:16:40,259 --> 00:16:42,600
这次没清仓那个仓位

464
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:43,940
回到Palantir

465
00:16:43,940 --> 00:16:45,639
增长加速

466
00:16:45,639 --> 00:16:47,059
更盈利

467
00:16:47,059 --> 00:16:50,950
看起来他们不会放缓脚步

468
00:16:50,950 --> 00:16:52,509
至于三

469
00:16:52,509 --> 00:16:53,409
我只是喜欢这家公司

470
00:16:53,409 --> 00:16:56,309
这也是我几年前买入的原因

471
00:16:56,309 --> 00:16:59,610
这也是我之后持续关注的原因

472
00:16:59,610 --> 00:17:01,669
所以这毫无悬念

473
00:17:01,669 --> 00:17:04,009
现在回落到我看来

474
00:17:04,009 --> 00:17:07,509
合理的价格就很喜欢抄底

475
00:17:07,509 --> 00:17:08,730
可能在百美元以下

476
00:17:08,730 --> 00:17:10,808
但没等到

477
00:17:10,808 --> 00:17:12,288
差不多就是这样

478
00:17:12,288 --> 00:17:13,088
差不多就是这样

479
00:17:13,088 --> 00:17:17,789
这就是我买入Palantir约十万美元一百股的原因

480
00:17:17,789 --> 00:17:20,130
我现在有一百零一股

481
00:17:20,130 --> 00:17:21,549
因为我保留了一股

482
00:17:21,549 --> 00:17:23,328
仍在追踪

483
00:17:23,328 --> 00:17:26,419
无论公司和股票如何表现

484
00:17:26,419 --> 00:17:29,739
我现在持有Palantir一百零一股

485
00:17:29,739 --> 00:17:33,569
希望这个仓位未来能持续增长

486
00:17:33,569 --> 00:17:35,390
今天视频就到这里

487
00:17:35,390 --> 00:17:37,109
不要被迫买入任何股票

488
00:17:37,109 --> 00:17:38,950
仅仅因为我提到这个

489
00:17:38,950 --> 00:17:41,069
或大家都在谈论它

490
00:17:41,069 --> 00:17:43,049
因为喜欢这家公司而买入股票

491
00:17:43,049 --> 00:17:46,150
因为支付的价格合理

492
00:17:46,150 --> 00:17:47,329
差不多就是这样

493
00:17:47,329 --> 00:17:48,829
下次见大家

494
00:17:48,829 --> 00:17:49,660
再见

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