投资新手到投资高手的转变

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今天这期视频

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我们聊一个普通投资者必须完成的转变

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从权威崇拜到第一性原理思考

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投资博主和投研机构可以作为信息源

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但不能成为你的大脑

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很多人做投资最大的亏损不是来自市场

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而是来自对权威的崇拜

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看到财经大V说看多就觉得自己错过了时代

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看到投研机构说看空

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就觉得产业逻辑已经崩塌

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真正成熟的投资者必须先完成一次

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曲妹你要明白

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投资博主也好

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投研机构也好

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本质上都不是神与机构

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他们也是市场参与者

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也要赚钱

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也可能有立场

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仓位

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客户流量

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产品和利益链条

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如果你看不懂这一点

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你就很容易从学习投资变成被别人观点牵着走

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你以为自己在吸收信息

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其实可能只是把自己的判断权交给了别人

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投资博主的本质是内容生产者

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投研机构的本质是信息生产者

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券商分析师和基金经理

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也都是金融服务链条上的商业参与者

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他们都可以提供价值

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但他们首先都要活下去

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他们需要流量

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需要订阅

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需要客户需要影响力

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需要把自己的认知

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数据渠道和判断转化成商业收益

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这不一定是坏事

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知识变现本身没有问题

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一个人研究的足够深

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讲的足够清楚

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帮助别人少走弯路

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他通过课程会员咨询广告和付费社群赚钱

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这是合理的

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投研机构也一样

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如果他真的有产业调研能力

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有数据优势

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有专业团队

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他靠研究报告

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数据库

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客户服务

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问题不在于他们赚钱

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问题在于你不能忘记他们在赚钱

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你不能把一个正在赚钱的商业主体

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想象成一个只为散户点灯的圣人

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市场里确实存在一种健康的供应关系

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一个投资博主长期看好某个产业

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自己有研究也有仓位

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他把产业逻辑讲出来

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帮助更多人理解这个行业

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如果他的判断是对的

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他自己赚钱

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观众也可能赚钱

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一个投研机构长期深耕某条产业链

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通过研究赚钱

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同时也把部分信息和框架释放给市场

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如果研究质量足够高

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市场因为它更快理解新方向

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投资者也获得更完整的信息

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这同样可以是共赢

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但更常见的问题是

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很多人并不是在帮助你理解产业

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而是在短期操控你的情绪

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他们不一定关心公司有没有长期价值

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不一定关心行业有没有真实需求

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他们关心的是今天的观点能不能制造波动

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典型套路就是先抛出一个极端观点

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再包装成独家消息

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再用几个专业词汇制造门槛

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然后让市场开始恐慌或者亢奋

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看多的时候

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仿佛行业马上改变

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人类文明

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看空的时候

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仿佛产业链明天就要归零

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真正的研究不是这样

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真正的研究会告诉你条件

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概率

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时间表

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风险点和反证标准

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情绪操控只需要告诉你一句话

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快跑或者快上车

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比投研机构更危险的

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其实是很多没有自己思考能力的假投资博主

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他们既没有产业调研

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也没有财报阅读能力

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既不懂技术路线

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也不懂商业模式

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但他们很懂流量

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他们看到一份研报就立刻搬运

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看到一个大V观点就马上复述

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看到一个外网截图

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就开始装作发现了惊天秘密

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转发一张图

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摘抄两句话

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加一句

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这事不简单

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再补一句

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懂得都懂

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这不是分析

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这是情绪二次加工

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原本一份研报只是一个机构的判断

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经过无数博主转发剪辑和标题党包装以后

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就变成了市场共识

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普通投资者最容易分不清五件事

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什么是事实

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什么是观点

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什么是推测

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什么是利益表达

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什么是情绪操控

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分不清这些就会把别人的立场当成自己的判断

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以CPU争议为例

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有投研观点看空CPU量产节奏

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被大量转发后引发市场恐慌

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但随后英伟达相关高管公开反驳

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强调

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CPU产品交付计划并不存在延期

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这个案例的重点不是某个机构一定对或一定错

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而是市场情绪传播速度非常快

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更值得警惕的是

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一个机构可能同时拥有研究影响力和产品

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合作利益

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一份研究报告可以影响市场情绪

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一个产品合作

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又可能享受行业关注度带来的商业价值

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而真正承担波动的人

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往往是没有判断能力的散户

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你以为自己在跟随专业

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实际上可能只是站在情绪传导链的最后一环

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前面的人赚流量

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赚订阅

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赚影响力

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赚产品

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而你最后拿真金白银去承接波动

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所以我不是说投资博主不能看投研机构

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不能信研报

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不能读大V观点不能参考

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恰恰相反

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成熟投资者一定要广泛获取信息

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你要看多头的逻辑

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也要看空头的逻辑

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要看产业研究

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也要看财务数据

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要看技术趋势

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也要看商业兑现

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要看公司叙事

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也要看真实订单

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但你关注这些人的目的

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不是为了找一个投资跌

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不是为了让他告诉你买什么卖什么

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不是为了让他替你承担亏损

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更不是为了让他的观点覆盖你的思考

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你关注投资博主应该是为了丰富信息来源

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你阅读投研报告

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应该是为了学习分析框架

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你听不同人的观点

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应该是为了训练自己的判断力

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真正有价值的博主不是永远喊对涨跌的人

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而是能让你知道他为什么这么判断

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真正有价值的研报不是结论最刺激的研报

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而是能清楚展示假设数据风险和反证条件

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如果一个人只给你结论

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却不给你推理过程

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你要小心

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如果一个人只制造情绪

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却不提供验证方法

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你要小心

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如果一个人永远用内部消息

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大资金动向

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懂得都懂来包装观点

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你更要小心

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投资最重要的不是听见答案

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而是知道答案是怎么来的

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真正的投资最后一定要回到第一性原理

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所谓第一性原理就是不要先问谁看多了

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而是先问最底层的问题

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这个产业解决了什么真实问题

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这个需求是真需求还是资本市场编出来的概念

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客户愿不愿意付钱

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成本能不能下降

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技术路线能不能规模化

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能你还要继续问公司有没有壁垒

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行业空间够不够大

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竞争格局会不会恶化

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现在的估值透支了多少

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未来如果我判断错了什么信号能证明我错了

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比如你看AI不能只看人工智能是未来这种口号

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你要看算力需求是不是真的增长

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云厂商资本开支是否持续

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芯片服务器

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光模块

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交换机存储

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电力和散热哪一环是真瓶颈

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比如你看CPU

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不能因为某个机构一句看空就觉得行业完了

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也不能因为英伟达一句推进不变

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就觉得所有公司都要暴涨

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你要问CPU到底解决什么问题

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是功耗问题还是带宽问题

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是数据中心内部互联问题

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还是交换机架构升级问题

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你还要问现有可插拔光模块还能撑多久

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CPU的良率成本维护和供应链成熟度

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什么时候能达到商业化条件

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哪些公司是真受益

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哪些公司只是蹭概念

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这就是第一性原理

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他不迷信权威

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不迷信研报

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不迷信博主

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不迷信短期涨跌

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他只关心一件事

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真实世界到底会不会发生改变

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投资要赚大钱

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靠的不是天天追消息

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而是提前看见真实需求

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看准产业方向

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在市场还没有完全定价的时候布局

228
00:09:26,220 --> 00:09:29,639
然后用足够长的时间陪他兑现

229
00:09:30,149 --> 00:09:32,469
短期市场靠情绪投票

230
00:09:32,469 --> 00:09:34,729
长期市场靠产业称重

231
00:09:34,729 --> 00:09:37,269
如果你只跟着博主情绪走

232
00:09:37,269 --> 00:09:38,980
你会每天焦虑

233
00:09:38,980 --> 00:09:41,299
如果你只跟着研报结论跑

234
00:09:41,299 --> 00:09:43,980
你会不断被反复打脸

235
00:09:44,419 --> 00:09:47,000
建立自己的第一性原理框架之后

236
00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:47,980
别人看空

237
00:09:47,980 --> 00:09:50,019
你会问他的假设是什么

238
00:09:50,019 --> 00:09:51,000
别人看多

239
00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,009
你会问他的证据够不够

240
00:09:53,009 --> 00:09:54,070
别人恐慌

241
00:09:54,070 --> 00:09:56,529
你会问长期需求是否变化

242
00:09:56,529 --> 00:09:57,509
别人狂热

243
00:09:57,509 --> 00:10:00,610
你会问估值是否已经透支

244
00:10:01,129 --> 00:10:04,370
按下买入键的人是你承受回撤的人

245
00:10:04,370 --> 00:10:06,169
是你承担后果的人

246
00:10:06,169 --> 00:10:07,099
也是你

247
00:10:07,099 --> 00:10:11,519
所以不要把自己的大脑交给任何权威嗯

248
00:10:11,568 --> 00:10:15,879
投资真正的进步是从崇拜权威开始走向

249
00:10:15,879 --> 00:10:16,820
理解逻辑

250
00:10:16,820 --> 00:10:20,039
从追逐观点开始走向验证事实

251
00:10:20,039 --> 00:10:22,059
从被市场情绪操控

252
00:10:22,059 --> 00:10:26,000
走向用第一性原理判断真实需求

253
00:10:26,379 --> 00:10:27,899
看清产业方向

254
00:10:27,899 --> 00:10:29,019
提前投资

255
00:10:29,019 --> 00:10:30,080
长期持有

256
00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:31,059
不断验证

257
00:10:31,059 --> 00:10:32,320
不断修正

258
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:36,159
这才是普通人真正应该建立的投资能力

259
00:10:36,159 --> 00:10:38,759
本视频只做投资认知分享

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00:10:38,759 --> 00:10:41,059
不构成任何投资建议

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