中概股是价值观的体现

1
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无论是腾讯阿里拼多多啊

2
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还是携程还是唯品会

3
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离去年的高点都几乎腰斩了啊

4
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尤其是拼多多呢

5
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现在账上爬了4000多个亿啊

6
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市值的只有1000亿多一点点

7
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按照他年化1000亿利润的话

8
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3~4倍的PE1吧

9
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那很多兄弟说

10
00:00:19,170 --> 00:00:20,890
为什么中概跌这么多呢

11
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你看携程也是啊

12
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也都是个位数的P1

13
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那到底是公司企业文化经营

14
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还是他的管理哪个地方出问题了吗

15
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其实呢任何一个公司他的今天的状态啊

16
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肯定有原因的啊

17
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没有无缘无故的爱

18
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也没有无缘无故的恨

19
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就像当时大润发的创始人黄明端啊

20
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走的时候说句话

21
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说时代淘汰了

22
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我们连句话都没有打过啊

23
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连个招呼都没有打

24
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他为什么就这么惨呢

25
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难道互联网真的不行了吗

26
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他明明是所有的AI的最终的买单者啊

27
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无论是这个数据中心都是他们买单的啊

28
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AI大模型啊都是他们投资或他们自己做的啊

29
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还是说他们的用户啊

30
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都是他们哈所有数据库啊都都来自他们

31
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那为什么他作为一个又出钱又出力啊

32
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还要出产品的人

33
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他就不被市场待见呢

34
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这本质上啊就是风格的问题

35
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他也不是这个企业本身没有价值价值有

36
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但是呢这是一个拼认知的时代

37
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就大家认为你不行

38
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哎不是也不是说你现在真不行了哈

39
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就认为你不行

40
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虽然说你赚了很多钱

41
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现在还是很赚钱啊

42
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商业模式还是很好

43
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但是大家就觉得你就是老了

44
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你就不顶用了啊

45
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你不代表未来的趋势了

46
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但是呢他们自身的问题是什么呢

47
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就他们的价值观确实有问题啊

48
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这中概啊我有一个算一个啊

49
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这算是他对他的一个很好的奖励

50
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他不是惩罚啊

51
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是奖励

52
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是他过去的时候他傲慢啊

53
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然后呢冷漠啊

54
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特别像拼多多这种啊

55
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然后呢像阿里这种是吧

56
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烧钱砸外卖的

57
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这对他短视的一个惩罚而已啊

58
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你就想去年那他不把钱砸到AI上

59
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拼命的烧这个外卖

60
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像十块钱一单的生意是不可能赚到钱的

61
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十块钱一单送到家

62
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你的固定的成本就要七八块

63
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你哪来的钱呀

64
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你不可能赚到钱

65
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其实客单价不做到30以上

66
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外卖都赚不到钱的

67
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所以本质上这个生意他本身开始注定了是输的

68
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那他为什么还要干呢是吧

69
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第二个呢就是压榨

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压榨呢是中概共同的特点

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因为我们做了16年商家

72
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这16年我们感受到一点是在2015年之前

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当市场竞争良性的时候

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大家还能谈点情怀

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像阿里当时确实有情怀啊

76
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京东当时也是也要保护商家啊

77
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然后呢啊腾讯共享嘛

78
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那时候直接就不参与电商了

79
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我们最早的时候做这个拍拍拍卖商城啊

80
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或者卖给京东

81
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当时呢就这样了

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大家还是属于良性竞争

83
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那个时候呢还能平衡到商家

84
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消费者供应商

85
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但是到了15年之后啊

86
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拼多多一撒出来味道全变了啊

87
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拼多多的那些招数都是一些下三滥招数

88
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这还是当年跟黄征当时在步步高的时候啊

89
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我们做串货嘛

90
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好正那好的

91
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没学会

92
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他妈坏的全学会了

93
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这个是真的

94
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各位其实这个人啊

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他的意识里面

96
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潜意识里面代表了他的想法

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这个想法呢代表他的行为

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所以拼多多

99
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他今天他这个走势

100
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其实就是他过去那一招不灵的

101
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什么时候压榨式的东西有效果呢

102
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就是成长期啊

103
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然后呢零和博弈的时候对吧

104
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这个蛋糕啊

105
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蛋糕参与蛋糕分配的人没反应过来的时候

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今天那一招肯定走不通了

107
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为啥嘞

108
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它会于下滑期

109
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所有东西都在下滑

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你首先消费能力在下滑对吧

111
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然后严重的供大于求

112
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然后呢这些供应的人呢面临着补税

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这个税为什么影响很大呢

114
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大家想这互联网赚什么钱

115
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就是广告费

116
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广告费靠谁啊

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大牌子像苹果啊

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茅台啊

119
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他不需要砸什么广告费啊

120
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他不可能需要给你投流的

121
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砸钱的全是我们这种小商家

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但小商家一补税没有钱砸砸广告了

123
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这就是最大的问题对吧

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然后呢你你平台对吧

125
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你你给了茅台苹果流量

126
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他不需要给你砸一毛钱用

127
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你都都收的很少

128
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那那这些小商家呢没有钱了

129
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所以带来的结果是你这个水啊

130
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你这个池塘的水没了

131
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所以他面临的问题

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他广告收入下滑很严重

133
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它的毛利一定会下降的

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所以拼多多后来说他要做这个新品母

135
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但心灵母这个事情呢又回到一个原点啊

136
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就是它很难

137
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它和线下的coco沃尔玛不一样啊

138
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沃尔玛COSTCO他们有会员费

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你看cos o它是啊

140
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他这个商品只有几个点的毛利啊

141
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但是他的会员费一年上百亿美金

142
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他赚的就是会员费

143
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包括然包括沃尔玛的这个山姆会员店也是

144
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那为什么你拼多多

145
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你做这个对吧

146
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自主品牌就很难呢

147
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九天保证你客单价很高

148
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还是那句话

149
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你在国内科内亚低于30

150
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你就赚不到钱

151
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但是呢你跟他价很高

152
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你往上比如说你做任何高科端的都有品牌

153
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都有心智

154
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消费者也不傻

155
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对不对

156
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那如果这些做品牌的那性价比比你高

157
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为什么要买你

158
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人家专业做这个行业的也不容易

159
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那cos o沃尔玛

160
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是因为他做的更多的是这种小东西啊

161
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吃的喝的啊

162
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包括这些饮料啊

163
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调味品啊

164
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它不一样

165
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所以呢你没法做大件

166
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那小件呢哼别人呢又又又发现赚不到钱

167
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也不见得跟你配合

168
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所以呢本质上互联网做品牌这个事儿

169
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本身就有问题

170
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本身这个事就就很难

171
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所以呢新品母呢这个事还是要挂个问号

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那tom这个事呢

173
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就是面临着全球的地地缘政治罚款对吧

174
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你会发现赚的没罚的多

175
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这个事该怎么破局呢

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就是一个问题

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你怎么对商家

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商家怎么对

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你

180
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为什么拼多多那一套在国外和国内很难两样呢

181
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因为做跨界的这帮商家

182
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他还是比较理性的

183
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这些人呢第一有实力

184
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第二品牌思维比较强

185
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他不会为了配合你的平台

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去像国内商家一样挤破脑袋

187
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国内那是没有底线

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是因为他没办法

189
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只是为了活着啊

190
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类似自己额尔同行领领导来上任

191
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然后呢干了几天

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明天再说

193
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跨境不是跨境

194
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一个周期就好几年了

195
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如果今天你看得远

196
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你可能血本无归

197
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就像我们当时在2020年

198
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面对这个运费一年十倍的时候

199
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我们都撑不住

200
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一年亏500万

201
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所以说你在面对跨境商家的时候

202
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tom那一套其实是不灵的

203
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然后再看一下腾讯啊

204
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快手啊啊抖音啊

205
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他们也面临问题

206
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有监管在监管面前

207
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他的这种所谓的繁荣也是个假象

208
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因为最后他发现他的算法也好

209
00:06:22,529 --> 00:06:24,569
什么反人性的那种机制也好

210
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他发现也很难走得通

211
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就一个监管对吧

212
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就为什么我去年5月份坚决要把腾讯清仓啊

213
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就一条

214
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就因为他无缘无故的封了我20年啊

215
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直播权限封20年

216
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我到今天我都不知道什么原因啊

217
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我都不知道什么原因封的

218
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你要告诉我说我我我违反哪个规则

219
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那就可以封了

220
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对不对

221
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没有原因

222
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所以他这种规则导致的就是所有的参与内容

223
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创作者人是没有安全感的

224
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那实际上很简单道理嘛

225
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投资是一个选选项对吧

226
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都用脚投票

227
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那我可以投你玩嘛

228
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对不对

229
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大家互相不信任嘛

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所以到今天为止

231
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你看大象还在平台上能够活得舒服的

232
00:06:57,759 --> 00:06:58,420
就两类人

233
00:06:58,420 --> 00:06:59,819
第一个哈绝对的品牌

234
00:06:59,819 --> 00:07:02,180
把这个把这些电商作为一个渠道

235
00:07:02,180 --> 00:07:03,928
第二种呢对吧

236
00:07:03,928 --> 00:07:05,728
你你害我我害你嘛对吧

237
00:07:05,728 --> 00:07:06,728
你拼多多也好啊

238
00:07:06,728 --> 00:07:07,889
快手也好是吧

239
00:07:07,889 --> 00:07:09,428
你就没想到跟我们长期共赢

240
00:07:09,428 --> 00:07:11,589
那我们也没有给你长期共赢的想法

241
00:07:11,589 --> 00:07:13,470
所以呢这个平台面临一个什么问题呢

242
00:07:13,470 --> 00:07:16,709
就是你看似在压榨剥削别的商家

243
00:07:16,709 --> 00:07:19,759
但商家很多商家也是在消耗你的品牌

244
00:07:19,759 --> 00:07:21,120
破坏你的品牌心智

245
00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:22,879
那你花了很多很多广告费

246
00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:24,139
好不容易打起来一个口碑

247
00:07:24,139 --> 00:07:25,939
那别人给你砸你牌子了

248
00:07:25,939 --> 00:07:29,069
所以本质上这就是一个零和博弈的过程

249
00:07:29,069 --> 00:07:30,829
所以这就是国内的这电视平台

250
00:07:30,829 --> 00:07:32,220
面临的共同的困境啊

251
00:07:32,220 --> 00:07:34,399
有现实问题就是补税啊

252
00:07:34,399 --> 00:07:38,418
监管啊啊各方面导致他确实是收放不开手脚

253
00:07:38,418 --> 00:07:39,459
那最重要是什么呢

254
00:07:39,459 --> 00:07:40,879
就他自身也没想着

255
00:07:40,879 --> 00:07:42,168
也没想着共赢

256
00:07:42,168 --> 00:07:44,428
所以一个平台呢他考虑不到商家

257
00:07:44,428 --> 00:07:45,889
供应商员工啊

258
00:07:45,889 --> 00:07:47,228
包括消费者共赢的时候

259
00:07:47,228 --> 00:07:49,089
他本身是早晚会出问题的

260
00:07:49,089 --> 00:07:51,149
所以很多兄弟说那中概就不能玩了吗

261
00:07:51,149 --> 00:07:51,550
没有

262
00:07:51,550 --> 00:07:53,769
你看看我之前所有的视频里面讲的是什么呢

263
00:07:53,769 --> 00:07:54,790
可以玩是吧

264
00:07:54,790 --> 00:07:55,370
就两条

265
00:07:55,370 --> 00:07:56,730
第一用利润玩啊

266
00:07:56,730 --> 00:07:57,629
赚了钱就走人

267
00:07:57,629 --> 00:07:58,709
就我经常讲一句话

268
00:07:58,709 --> 00:07:59,850
我说在中概上啊

269
00:07:59,850 --> 00:08:01,550
任何时候赚了钱走人都是对的

270
00:08:01,550 --> 00:08:02,870
你用利润玩嘛无所谓嘛

271
00:08:02,870 --> 00:08:03,269
对不对

272
00:08:03,269 --> 00:08:04,990
因为他也不是说一直跌啊

273
00:08:04,990 --> 00:08:06,149
涨的时候也快

274
00:08:06,149 --> 00:08:09,490
冬盖的特点就是哈哈这个100天哈哈

275
00:08:09,490 --> 00:08:10,310
不是五一百天了

276
00:08:10,310 --> 00:08:12,839
一年里面1%到五的时间是涨的

277
00:08:12,839 --> 00:08:15,220
95%到98的时间是跌的

278
00:08:15,220 --> 00:08:17,139
那你那个时候你只要涨了

279
00:08:17,139 --> 00:08:17,459
赚钱了

280
00:08:17,459 --> 00:08:18,459
你就走是吧

281
00:08:18,459 --> 00:08:19,740
剩下的就开始喋喋不休了

282
00:08:23,470 --> 00:08:25,329
极低的时候参与一下对吧

283
00:08:25,329 --> 00:08:26,209
就观察一下嘛

284
00:08:26,209 --> 00:08:27,129
就对比一下

285
00:08:27,129 --> 00:08:28,610
丰富一下自己的投资阅历

286
00:08:28,610 --> 00:08:32,460
因为为什么这个啊这个在冬干上很难有长久呢

287
00:08:32,460 --> 00:08:35,620
因为这个事情就是啊就是一个心态的问题

288
00:08:35,620 --> 00:08:36,919
他看不远是吧

289
00:08:36,919 --> 00:08:38,220
他也没想到看远

290
00:08:38,220 --> 00:08:38,700
第二个呢

291
00:08:38,700 --> 00:08:39,620
它的商业模式本身呢

292
00:08:39,620 --> 00:08:40,779
它也没有什么创新东西

293
00:08:40,779 --> 00:08:42,139
就是联合博弈过程嘛

294
00:08:42,139 --> 00:08:44,340
就依托我们国内的强大的供应链哈

295
00:08:44,340 --> 00:08:45,139
廉价劳动力哈

296
00:08:45,139 --> 00:08:47,470
以及说这些这些人为了把握了生存

297
00:08:47,470 --> 00:08:48,210
不择手段

298
00:08:48,210 --> 00:08:49,549
解剖投这种心态

299
00:08:49,549 --> 00:08:51,429
本质上还是一个拼效率

300
00:08:51,429 --> 00:08:52,990
而不是拼创新的过程

301
00:08:52,990 --> 00:08:55,460
所以这种繁荣呢它其实是假的

302
00:08:55,460 --> 00:08:57,320
所以最后呢你在玩中盖的时候

303
00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,639
把这些背后的逻辑啊想明白

304
00:08:59,639 --> 00:09:01,799
实际上想套你也很难

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