BV1AL7B6bE9T · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:05,759 大家好 2 00:00:08,339 --> 00:00:10,640 我们继续分析美股 3 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,119 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 4 00:00:14,119 --> 00:00:17,800 随后分析大盘指数和热门股票 5 00:00:18,649 --> 00:00:22,969 美银敲响AI牛市警钟 6 00:00:23,609 --> 00:00:25,449 AI热潮退潮 7 00:00:25,449 --> 00:00:26,910 转向防御 8 00:00:26,910 --> 00:00:31,500 美国银行策略主管REDDLER警告 9 00:00:31,500 --> 00:00:33,960 若AI交易开始退潮 10 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:42,729 投资者应将目光转向必需消费品和制药等此前被冷落的防御性板块 11 00:00:42,729 --> 00:00:46,509 这些行业的底层商业逻辑依然有效 12 00:00:46,509 --> 00:00:49,390 有助于规避下行风险 13 00:00:49,390 --> 00:00:52,170 巨额资本支出遭质疑 14 00:00:52,170 --> 00:00:55,950 市场对AI能否成为高利润业务 15 00:00:55,950 --> 00:01:00,450 以支撑其庞大的资本支出持怀疑态度 16 00:01:00,450 --> 00:01:06,629 一旦超大规模云服务商质疑自身是否创造了价值 17 00:01:06,629 --> 00:01:08,989 并决定削减支出 18 00:01:08,989 --> 00:01:14,349 许多防御性板块将迎来蓄势待发的机遇 19 00:01:14,989 --> 00:01:17,810 AI经济效益持续恶化 20 00:01:17,810 --> 00:01:22,209 AI业务的经济效益正面临双重挤压 21 00:01:22,209 --> 00:01:24,670 一方面服务价格上涨 22 00:01:24,670 --> 00:01:27,409 促使客户限制使用量 23 00:01:27,409 --> 00:01:29,000 另一方面 24 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,959 低成本开源模型的大量涌现 25 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:37,799 破坏了维持高利润率所必需的市场稀缺性 26 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,349 终端用户付费意愿承疑 27 00:01:41,349 --> 00:01:45,670 巨额资本支出最终需由终端用户买单 28 00:01:45,670 --> 00:01:50,549 但当前用户的定价能力和付费意愿存疑 29 00:01:50,549 --> 00:01:54,650 他认为目前的盈利预期过于乐观 30 00:01:54,650 --> 00:01:57,409 若客户转向廉价模型 31 00:01:57,409 --> 00:02:01,650 AI产业链将面临严峻考验 32 00:02:02,959 --> 00:02:05,659 芯片股业绩提振信心 33 00:02:05,659 --> 00:02:07,519 尽管面临质疑 34 00:02:07,519 --> 00:02:11,770 AI产业链的做多力量并未完全消退 35 00:02:11,829 --> 00:02:15,389 在纳斯达克100指数重挫后 36 00:02:15,389 --> 00:02:22,088 美光科技和高通等芯片巨头发布了强劲的利好业绩展望 37 00:02:22,088 --> 00:02:26,889 正帮助市场短暂重振对AI需求的信心 38 00:02:27,889 --> 00:02:30,650 市场面临结构性重估 39 00:02:30,969 --> 00:02:34,610 华尔街对AI市场的担忧正在加剧 40 00:02:34,610 --> 00:02:39,050 随着AI投入产出比面临压力 41 00:02:39,050 --> 00:02:42,810 测试市场可能迎来结构性重估 42 00:02:42,810 --> 00:02:46,909 一旦主要科技巨头率先削减AI支出 43 00:02:46,909 --> 00:02:53,030 整个AI板块的估值逻辑将面临全面重构 44 00:02:55,500 --> 00:03:00,539 核心PCEE飙升与美联储政策转向 45 00:03:01,498 --> 00:03:05,180 核心通胀创近年新高 46 00:03:05,180 --> 00:03:13,229 剔除食品和能源的核心PCE物价指数5月同比上涨3.4% 47 00:03:13,229 --> 00:03:15,610 环比上涨0.3% 48 00:03:15,610 --> 00:03:17,759 均符合市场预期 49 00:03:17,759 --> 00:03:22,650 这一数据创下2023年10月以来的最高水平 50 00:03:22,650 --> 00:03:27,780 进一步印证了当前物价持续攀升的严峻趋势 51 00:03:27,780 --> 00:03:30,960 整体通胀触及3年高位 52 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,169 经季节性调整后 53 00:03:33,169 --> 00:03:36,930 包含所有品类的整体PCE物价指数 54 00:03:36,930 --> 00:03:40,419 同比通胀率达到4.1% 55 00:03:40,419 --> 00:03:44,439 为2023年4月以来最高水平 56 00:03:44,439 --> 00:03:48,060 其环比增速加快至0.4% 57 00:03:48,060 --> 00:03:50,439 虽略低于预期 58 00:03:50,439 --> 00:03:53,580 但整体通胀压力依然显著 59 00:03:53,580 --> 00:03:56,219 且居高不下 60 00:03:57,460 --> 00:04:00,680 地缘冲突加剧通胀扩散 61 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:08,219 美联储通常将核心通胀视为衡量长期物价走势的更优指标 62 00:04:08,219 --> 00:04:14,729 当前通胀上行主要源于伊朗地缘冲突推高能源价格 63 00:04:14,729 --> 00:04:20,439 且这种通胀压力正逐步向经济各个领域扩散 64 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,470 消费与收入双双超预期 65 00:04:27,470 --> 00:04:30,389 尽管通胀数据居高不下 66 00:04:30,389 --> 00:04:34,240 居民消费支出表现却好于预期 67 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:38,430 个人消费支出环比增长0.7% 68 00:04:38,430 --> 00:04:42,149 个人收入环比上涨0.7% 69 00:04:42,149 --> 00:04:44,620 大幅高于预期值 70 00:04:44,620 --> 00:04:47,500 个人储蓄率升至3% 71 00:04:47,500 --> 00:04:52,220 消费增速成功跑赢当月通胀水平 72 00:04:54,079 --> 00:04:56,980 美联储释放政策收紧信号 73 00:05:01,079 --> 00:05:02,899 物价稳定 74 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,980 官员们取消了年内降息预期 75 00:05:05,980 --> 00:05:08,360 并释放加息可能 76 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,779 美联储将全力稳物价 77 00:05:15,779 --> 00:05:16,500 政策 78 00:05:16,500 --> 00:05:22,610 声明中相关降息前瞻措辞已被全部删除 79 00:05:22,970 --> 00:05:26,040 美国经济展现较强韧性 80 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,600 一季度GDP年化增速上修至2.1% 81 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:32,990 优于市场预期 82 00:05:33,470 --> 00:05:41,079 同时最新一周首次申领失业救济金人数降至21.5万人 83 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:43,000 好于预期 84 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,019 多项数据同步表明 85 00:05:45,019 --> 00:05:46,860 尽管面临通胀压力 86 00:05:46,860 --> 00:05:50,589 美国经济整体仍具较强韧性 87 00:05:52,779 --> 00:05:56,620 苹果罕见全球大涨价 88 00:05:57,730 --> 00:06:00,949 史无前例的全线产品涨价 89 00:06:00,949 --> 00:06:09,529 苹果公司宣布在全球范围内上调这些产品等多条产品线的价格 90 00:06:09,529 --> 00:06:17,428 这是苹果现代历史上首次对多个产品类别同时进行全面提价 91 00:06:17,428 --> 00:06:21,608 打破了以往仅对个别机型微调的惯例 92 00:06:21,608 --> 00:06:24,459 引发市场高度关注 93 00:06:24,980 --> 00:06:29,220 AI扩张引爆存储芯片短缺 94 00:06:29,500 --> 00:06:35,709 苹果官方将此次涨价归咎于AI数据中心的快速扩张 95 00:06:35,709 --> 00:06:40,559 导致内存芯片和存储器需求异常激增 96 00:06:40,559 --> 00:06:41,858 公司坦言 97 00:06:41,858 --> 00:06:49,279 从未见过某种零部件价格以如此快的速度出现如此大幅度的上涨 98 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:53,879 供应链面临前所未有的成本压力 99 00:06:55,639 --> 00:06:58,560 核心产品线价格大幅上调 100 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,168 多款核心设备涨幅显著 101 00:07:02,528 --> 00:07:10,470 这些产品都上调高配版及顶配机型的价格涨幅更为惊人 102 00:07:10,870 --> 00:07:14,189 IPHONE等核心设备暂免涨价 103 00:07:14,189 --> 00:07:16,149 尽管成本飙升 104 00:07:16,149 --> 00:07:19,319 苹果此次并未上调IPHONE 105 00:07:19,319 --> 00:07:22,819 apple watch及airports的售价 106 00:07:22,819 --> 00:07:25,439 不过苹果在声明中暗示 107 00:07:25,439 --> 00:07:29,939 未来可能会对更多产品做进一步的价格调整 108 00:07:29,939 --> 00:07:34,379 显示出成本压力仍在持续积聚 109 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:39,069 成本转嫁致股价盘中重挫 110 00:07:39,069 --> 00:07:41,350 随着涨价消息的公布 111 00:07:41,350 --> 00:07:44,870 市场担忧消费者需求可能受到抑制 112 00:07:44,870 --> 00:07:48,129 苹果股价一度重挫6.2% 113 00:07:48,129 --> 00:07:53,120 创下自2025年4月以来的最大日内跌幅 114 00:07:53,120 --> 00:08:02,158 投资者正在重新评估硬件成本上涨对苹果整体盈利能力的潜在冲击 115 00:08:02,478 --> 00:08:05,779 承认无法继续内部消化成本 116 00:08:05,779 --> 00:08:07,759 苹果发言人表示 117 00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:12,548 公司此前一直在努力为客户消化涨价影响 118 00:08:12,548 --> 00:08:17,410 但目前已到了必须上调部分产品价格的时候 119 00:08:17,410 --> 00:08:21,459 尽管深知这不是消费者乐见的消息 120 00:08:21,459 --> 00:08:24,779 苹果正全力寻找解决方案 121 00:08:24,779 --> 00:08:29,649 但短期内仍需向终端市场转嫁成本 122 00:08:29,970 --> 00:08:32,470 好我们看一下今天市场的表现 123 00:08:32,470 --> 00:08:35,950 纳指期货收涨0.6%左右 124 00:08:35,950 --> 00:08:40,889 我们看到啊这个幅度呢跟我们这个K线图不是完全匹配啊 125 00:08:40,889 --> 00:08:43,750 我们以啊当前的K线为主啊 126 00:08:43,750 --> 00:08:48,460 那么当前呢是收出具有下影线的一根阴线的感觉哈 127 00:08:48,659 --> 00:08:52,899 那么跟昨天的这个尾盘拉起来的K线好 128 00:08:52,899 --> 00:08:54,379 正好反着 129 00:08:54,590 --> 00:08:55,629 昨天是绿的 130 00:08:55,629 --> 00:08:56,649 今天是红的 131 00:08:56,649 --> 00:08:59,190 我们看一下5分钟图 132 00:09:01,039 --> 00:09:07,559 那么市场呢在昨天盘后美光发布财报之后选择了上行 133 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,710 那么今天呢亚欧时段呢选择了进一步上涨啊 134 00:09:11,710 --> 00:09:13,610 但后续呢又有所回落哈 135 00:09:13,610 --> 00:09:17,159 但回落之后大部分的美股时段都是横盘哈 136 00:09:17,159 --> 00:09:19,419 所以这个位置呢是有分歧的 137 00:09:19,419 --> 00:09:22,600 再次形成了一个震荡的感觉 138 00:09:23,090 --> 00:09:25,610 那么按照这根下跌渲染为界的话 139 00:09:26,809 --> 00:09:29,960 突破回调止跌是有这种感觉的 140 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:34,179 所以下一个交易时段如果有强劲拉升的表现就没问题了 141 00:09:34,179 --> 00:09:37,059 但如果有强劲暴跌的表现呢 142 00:09:37,220 --> 00:09:38,620 那就有问题了 143 00:09:38,620 --> 00:09:41,340 那就要跌到下方的值上去 144 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,080 说空头一定会赢吗 145 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:45,860 不一定多头一定会赢吗 146 00:09:45,860 --> 00:09:46,879 也不一定 147 00:09:46,879 --> 00:09:50,000 因为今天美股时段过于的犹豫哈 148 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,710 多头考虑到这里空投也有一定的力度 149 00:09:54,789 --> 00:09:58,039 所以这个位置是一个中性区域哈 150 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:03,840 好中性区域就意味着今天没有给出倾向哈 151 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:09,450 你看他是额空头的这种实体 152 00:10:09,450 --> 00:10:11,549 但是呢又有一定的下影线 153 00:10:11,549 --> 00:10:14,350 这里呢又有一个上涨趋势线作为支撑 154 00:10:14,350 --> 00:10:17,789 所以这个位置呢往下跌没跌成功 155 00:10:17,789 --> 00:10:20,909 往上止跌略微小成功哈 156 00:10:20,909 --> 00:10:22,509 但这也多头不强 157 00:10:23,330 --> 00:10:24,960 就是这样 158 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:29,320 所以我们应该继续看明天的K线的倾向啊 159 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,179 所以这是两天的一个震荡行情是吧 160 00:10:33,820 --> 00:10:35,980 唉罗素罗素还好 161 00:10:35,980 --> 00:10:38,659 唉罗素毕竟是往上走嘞 162 00:10:39,730 --> 00:10:40,730 道指也是啊 163 00:10:40,730 --> 00:10:42,490 道指虽然冲高回落啊 164 00:10:42,490 --> 00:10:44,590 但终究还是在趋势线的上方 165 00:10:44,590 --> 00:10:49,139 而且也不是说哦现在还判断不了顶对吧 166 00:10:49,139 --> 00:10:51,919 只靠这一根就长上影线的K线 167 00:10:51,919 --> 00:10:54,519 判断顶部还是有一定的难度的 168 00:10:54,519 --> 00:10:56,470 再观察一下 169 00:10:58,759 --> 00:11:02,600 啊标普今天是收出了阴线这种感觉哈 170 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:04,639 所以大家一定要注意哈 171 00:11:04,639 --> 00:11:08,909 嗯看看明天会不会继续延续跌势 172 00:11:08,909 --> 00:11:12,070 我们看一下5分钟图 173 00:11:14,860 --> 00:11:16,299 这里震荡了吧 174 00:11:17,379 --> 00:11:18,379 我们应该怎么样 175 00:11:18,379 --> 00:11:20,059 我们应该画好下跌趋势线啊 176 00:11:21,139 --> 00:11:22,139 如果这么画的话 177 00:11:22,139 --> 00:11:23,870 下行的概率也有 178 00:11:25,190 --> 00:11:27,769 说标普和纳指还是有一定的不一样的 179 00:11:27,769 --> 00:11:28,450 是的哈 180 00:11:28,450 --> 00:11:30,549 成分股不一样 181 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,120 呃这是这个 182 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:35,700 我们看一下黄金 183 00:11:36,019 --> 00:11:38,419 黄金今天是在4100带哈 184 00:11:38,419 --> 00:11:40,019 不断的震荡 185 00:11:40,460 --> 00:11:41,620 多头强吧不强 186 00:11:42,659 --> 00:11:46,078 我们看一下5分钟图嗯 187 00:11:46,798 --> 00:11:48,999 摸到了这根长的下影啊 188 00:11:48,999 --> 00:11:51,078 这个这个下跌趋势线哈 189 00:11:51,078 --> 00:11:53,139 所以货多头就犹豫了 190 00:11:53,139 --> 00:11:54,850 我们看到啊 191 00:11:54,850 --> 00:11:57,309 大部分美股时段都是犹豫的K线 192 00:11:57,309 --> 00:11:59,669 所以看明天能不能往上突破 193 00:11:59,669 --> 00:12:02,200 或者是继续延续跌势哈 194 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,879 对4000这个关口是一个重要的关口 195 00:12:04,879 --> 00:12:07,639 跌破的话就麻烦了啊 196 00:12:09,620 --> 00:12:12,019 好我们看一下市场整体的表现 197 00:12:14,980 --> 00:12:17,808 嗯半导体微涨 198 00:12:17,808 --> 00:12:19,509 互联网是微跌 199 00:12:19,509 --> 00:12:21,149 消费电子大跌哈 200 00:12:21,149 --> 00:12:23,740 主要是苹果大跌 201 00:12:24,100 --> 00:12:25,580 软件还是下地哈 202 00:12:26,779 --> 00:12:29,419 然后航空航天是微跌 203 00:12:30,009 --> 00:12:31,090 半导体设备 204 00:12:31,090 --> 00:12:33,610 这个是大涨或者是材料哈 205 00:12:33,610 --> 00:12:36,539 半导体设备与材料呃 206 00:12:36,539 --> 00:12:38,000 这个汽车制造V底 207 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,519 计算机硬件上涨大涨 208 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,480 应用软件下跌 209 00:12:47,179 --> 00:12:49,259 好其他的不是我们关注的哈 210 00:12:50,419 --> 00:12:55,960 好我们看下领涨的那么存储概念今天是延续了大涨哈 211 00:12:55,960 --> 00:13:00,460 所以所以我们的大盘就被这些驱动着哈 212 00:13:00,620 --> 00:13:02,600 嗯我们先看一下这两个吧 213 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:04,899 我们先看一下闪迪 214 00:13:05,279 --> 00:13:05,740 唉 215 00:13:05,740 --> 00:13:08,080 闪迪今年是大幅的天空高开 216 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,440 在这震啊震啊震唉 217 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:11,519 又收了起来 218 00:13:11,519 --> 00:13:14,519 前天上涨22%左右哈 219 00:13:14,519 --> 00:13:17,039 强不强强能猜顶吗 220 00:13:17,039 --> 00:13:19,480 不能说纳指为什么就不跌呢 221 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,240 我们再看一下纳指 222 00:13:22,029 --> 00:13:24,289 就是因为有个别图才支楞着啊 223 00:13:24,289 --> 00:13:26,789 但也不是所有的图都支棱住了 224 00:13:26,789 --> 00:13:30,230 刚才我们看到很多行业也是下跌的对吧 225 00:13:30,230 --> 00:13:31,809 我们再看一下闪迪 226 00:13:31,809 --> 00:13:32,669 还可以吧 227 00:13:33,750 --> 00:13:36,720 我们看一下它的5分钟图什么感觉好 228 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,240 跳空高开之后给了一波回调诶 229 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,080 回调止跌止跌止跌诶 230 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,059 可以在这区域做多是吧 231 00:13:44,059 --> 00:13:47,279 嗯啊这是闪迪 232 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:54,200 然后是美光一样哈 233 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:55,860 美国也是一样的 234 00:13:55,860 --> 00:13:58,559 全天收涨15%以上哈 235 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,570 可以加5分钟嗯 236 00:14:01,570 --> 00:14:03,110 一样的形态哈 237 00:14:03,110 --> 00:14:05,230 大幅跳空高开回调 238 00:14:05,230 --> 00:14:07,289 止跌止跌止跌止跌止跌 239 00:14:07,289 --> 00:14:09,909 做赌对 240 00:14:10,389 --> 00:14:12,110 是不是盘后又有什么事儿啊 241 00:14:12,110 --> 00:14:13,590 有什么财报什么的 242 00:14:13,590 --> 00:14:16,149 纳指期货还在涨啊 243 00:14:17,220 --> 00:14:18,799 好我们先看图吧 244 00:14:18,799 --> 00:14:21,580 另外就是这个应用材料 245 00:14:21,580 --> 00:14:23,500 这个我们看一下啊 246 00:14:23,500 --> 00:14:26,669 嗯还是大涨啊 247 00:14:26,669 --> 00:14:28,669 这里虽然说有所回调 248 00:14:28,669 --> 00:14:29,750 这个回调啊 249 00:14:29,750 --> 00:14:31,590 但是他没有选择继续跌啊 250 00:14:31,590 --> 00:14:33,429 选择了上涨 251 00:14:34,269 --> 00:14:37,870 好吧我们的这个其实长线趋势线一直都有效 252 00:14:37,870 --> 00:14:40,190 只不过有时候会有一些回调啊 253 00:14:40,190 --> 00:14:43,245 但是个别图片他就是不使劲 254 00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:44,750 我稍微给点回调啊 255 00:14:44,750 --> 00:14:46,029 他就直接上去了 256 00:14:46,029 --> 00:14:49,159 这种走法是最难做的啊 257 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:54,159 嗯然后是科雷哎呀 258 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:55,480 后来这个也是啊 259 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:56,480 你趋势线画好 260 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:57,580 直升区画好 261 00:14:57,580 --> 00:14:58,879 今天是手掌啊 262 00:14:58,879 --> 00:15:00,200 今天是手掌 263 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,940 我看下5分钟都是什么感觉啊 264 00:15:02,940 --> 00:15:03,879 一样的哈 265 00:15:03,879 --> 00:15:07,039 天空高开回落止跌对吧 266 00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:11,278 质地这里止跌再止跌拉升上去回落 267 00:15:11,278 --> 00:15:13,038 弱势再出现阳线 268 00:15:13,038 --> 00:15:17,458 继续做多回落止跌回落指止跌止跌拉升 269 00:15:17,458 --> 00:15:20,409 那么下午盘主要是高位横盘 270 00:15:20,409 --> 00:15:23,850 我看到尾盘最后一根黑线还是阳线哈 271 00:15:27,700 --> 00:15:28,539 还有谁呀 272 00:15:29,740 --> 00:15:31,980 好其他的就是我们不喜欢的哈 273 00:15:31,980 --> 00:15:35,940 我们看一下这个热门列表 274 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,509 我们看一下SOXL 275 00:15:40,909 --> 00:15:42,830 我们一直在观察这个楔形啊 276 00:15:42,830 --> 00:15:44,568 它能不能掉下来哈 277 00:15:44,568 --> 00:15:45,808 他想掉下来 278 00:15:45,808 --> 00:15:46,349 但没有 279 00:15:46,349 --> 00:15:47,308 现在没有 280 00:15:47,308 --> 00:15:50,188 今天这个图收盘价比昨天要高哈 281 00:15:50,188 --> 00:15:52,289 上涨10% 282 00:15:52,409 --> 00:15:53,570 我看他对吧 283 00:15:53,570 --> 00:15:54,509 又上去了 284 00:15:54,509 --> 00:15:58,620 看一下5分钟多嗯 285 00:15:59,100 --> 00:16:01,019 这里跳空高开 286 00:16:01,019 --> 00:16:01,879 大幅回调 287 00:16:01,879 --> 00:16:03,440 止低拉升 288 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:11,710 可能在这片做的会好一点嗯好看热线就可以了 289 00:16:12,470 --> 00:16:14,529 好那么这样的话空头不行啊 290 00:16:14,529 --> 00:16:16,570 我们说空头必须得收跌哈 291 00:16:16,570 --> 00:16:18,990 今天是收涨10% 292 00:16:20,740 --> 00:16:23,600 好下边的这个阿斯迈尔也是啊 293 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:24,639 又上来了 294 00:16:24,639 --> 00:16:29,669 但是啊估计接下来几个交易日可能这里震荡的概率会高一点啊 295 00:16:30,438 --> 00:16:31,639 这是阿斯迈尔 296 00:16:33,359 --> 00:16:35,019 看下高通哎 297 00:16:35,019 --> 00:16:39,059 高通高通今天是大幅天空高开 298 00:16:39,059 --> 00:16:40,340 但是有所回落 299 00:16:40,340 --> 00:16:41,659 全天微涨一点点 300 00:16:41,659 --> 00:16:43,299 收盘价比昨天高一点 301 00:16:43,299 --> 00:16:44,539 是前空投吗 302 00:16:44,539 --> 00:16:46,000 不是说涨啊 303 00:16:46,230 --> 00:16:48,450 我们看一下5分钟头的感觉 304 00:16:48,450 --> 00:16:56,929 嗯啊他还在这个中间这个阻力区和这个支撑区之间进行震荡 305 00:16:56,929 --> 00:16:59,149 所以多头的底线是在下方是吧 306 00:16:59,149 --> 00:17:01,879 止损是在下方就可以了 307 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,839 今天也是大幅跳空高开回落 308 00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:07,140 由于空头过于的强势哈 309 00:17:07,140 --> 00:17:09,730 所以前天也没有去再创新高 310 00:17:09,730 --> 00:17:13,089 而是维持了一个震荡的一个走法 311 00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:17,779 那么日线图的交易者指底线就会在下方 312 00:17:20,858 --> 00:17:25,130 嗯好我们开一个医药股 313 00:17:25,210 --> 00:17:28,109 嗯这个图整体形态上还是多头啊 314 00:17:28,109 --> 00:17:31,700 嗯我们看到近期有一些回调的迹象 315 00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:34,500 但是工头在竖直方向上没有使劲啊 316 00:17:34,500 --> 00:17:37,539 你看多头的强度多强是吧 317 00:17:37,539 --> 00:17:39,599 但目前空头不强诶 318 00:17:39,599 --> 00:17:42,119 多头也可以设定一个新的止损 319 00:17:42,799 --> 00:17:45,279 在这片定一个就可以了 320 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,160 好 321 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:51,259 好我们看下特斯拉 322 00:17:51,259 --> 00:17:51,740 好 323 00:17:51,740 --> 00:17:53,420 特斯拉今天是VD哈 324 00:17:53,420 --> 00:17:54,960 下跌确要画好 325 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,250 这这形态就是震荡行情了 326 00:18:01,319 --> 00:18:03,559 嗯我看下博通 327 00:18:04,970 --> 00:18:07,309 博通今天是收底哈 328 00:18:07,309 --> 00:18:09,809 但是这个支撑区目前还是有效的哈 329 00:18:09,809 --> 00:18:11,490 所以这片非常的关键啊 330 00:18:11,490 --> 00:18:15,740 这个横向支撑位好继续观察啊 331 00:18:15,740 --> 00:18:16,940 如果继续暴跌的话 332 00:18:16,940 --> 00:18:17,839 多头离场 333 00:18:17,839 --> 00:18:19,559 等到更低的位置再说 334 00:18:19,559 --> 00:18:21,140 如果明天是大阳线的话 335 00:18:21,140 --> 00:18:22,299 就没事 336 00:18:22,299 --> 00:18:24,779 看一下5分钟图 337 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,059 好在这个横向区域啊 338 00:18:28,059 --> 00:18:31,150 空头有点犹豫啊 339 00:18:31,150 --> 00:18:32,670 所以明天是大阳线 340 00:18:32,670 --> 00:18:33,630 多头就安全了 341 00:18:33,630 --> 00:18:35,509 如果是大阴线是止损 342 00:18:35,509 --> 00:18:37,150 多头要止损 343 00:18:38,529 --> 00:18:40,569 好我们再看一下日期 344 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:43,920 有人说大阴线也可以有啊 345 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:44,680 当然可以有了 346 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,359 为什么不能有呢 347 00:18:46,819 --> 00:18:48,240 这不就是跌下来的吗 348 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,700 所以说我们说那那句老话 349 00:18:50,700 --> 00:18:53,059 一切皆有可能啊 350 00:18:54,420 --> 00:18:57,849 我们看一下SPACEX额 351 00:18:57,849 --> 00:18:59,109 昨天就是阴线啊 352 00:18:59,109 --> 00:19:00,529 收盘价比这要低 353 00:19:00,529 --> 00:19:01,630 今天又是阴线 354 00:19:01,630 --> 00:19:03,049 收盘价比昨天低 355 00:19:03,049 --> 00:19:05,869 可见这里是一个局部的震荡 356 00:19:06,180 --> 00:19:08,650 我们看一下5分钟图 357 00:19:09,329 --> 00:19:10,089 没错 358 00:19:10,089 --> 00:19:11,710 是一个局部的震荡 359 00:19:11,710 --> 00:19:15,410 有人说哎多头不是进入到下跌帅的右侧吗 360 00:19:15,410 --> 00:19:17,630 怎么不使劲拉升啊 361 00:19:18,109 --> 00:19:19,869 所以说该拉升不拉升哈 362 00:19:19,869 --> 00:19:22,009 大家还要更加的警惕 363 00:19:22,009 --> 00:19:24,529 才这个叫什么来着 364 00:19:24,529 --> 00:19:28,250 要更加的警惕才行啊对吧 365 00:19:28,250 --> 00:19:31,549 你这个突破啊需要一个大呀大的阳线啊 366 00:19:31,549 --> 00:19:32,349 弄上去 367 00:19:32,349 --> 00:19:33,750 但你看这墨迹这么久 368 00:19:33,750 --> 00:19:35,609 这么不使劲不使劲拉升呢 369 00:19:35,609 --> 00:19:37,170 所以明天比较关键 370 00:19:37,170 --> 00:19:38,650 如果继续跌的话 371 00:19:38,650 --> 00:19:40,569 那也没办法是吧 372 00:19:40,569 --> 00:19:41,809 该拉升不拉升 373 00:19:43,170 --> 00:19:45,769 这是今天的感觉哈 374 00:19:46,229 --> 00:19:47,028 可以拉是吗 375 00:19:47,028 --> 00:19:47,588 当然可以 376 00:19:47,588 --> 00:19:49,009 因为空头也没使劲砸 377 00:19:49,009 --> 00:19:51,568 所以这个又又是一个中性区域哈 378 00:19:51,568 --> 00:19:53,960 这个位置是吧 379 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:55,500 我们再看一下日线 380 00:19:55,500 --> 00:19:59,019 所谓中性区域就是你感觉到了它是一个局部的小震荡 381 00:19:59,019 --> 00:20:00,240 震荡行情 382 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,259 他可涨可跌的位置对吧 383 00:20:02,259 --> 00:20:05,099 他如果跌的话也没办法啊 384 00:20:08,220 --> 00:20:10,619 好我们看下英伟达好 385 00:20:10,619 --> 00:20:13,400 英伟达今天是收了一根阴线啊 386 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,220 有一定的下影线 387 00:20:15,220 --> 00:20:19,289 摸到了我们这根长的上涨趋势线哎 388 00:20:19,289 --> 00:20:22,450 所以这个位置理论上还是应该做多 389 00:20:22,450 --> 00:20:25,670 因为我们应该假设大趋势是有效的 390 00:20:25,670 --> 00:20:28,349 但有时候呢趋势会越来越平缓 391 00:20:28,349 --> 00:20:30,450 注意我们的大趋势有效 392 00:20:30,450 --> 00:20:33,069 不是大趋势线有效对吧 393 00:20:33,069 --> 00:20:34,990 有时候这个趋势线有效 394 00:20:34,990 --> 00:20:37,329 有时候只是趋势有效 395 00:20:37,329 --> 00:20:40,909 但趋势线变平缓或者变陡峭 396 00:20:40,909 --> 00:20:42,828 所以趋势没有变哈 397 00:20:42,828 --> 00:20:47,049 但回调导致的趋势的斜率变了 398 00:20:47,250 --> 00:20:49,650 那么这个位置明天如果有强劲阳线 399 00:20:49,650 --> 00:20:53,230 才表明我画的这根上涨趋势线是有效的哈 400 00:20:53,230 --> 00:20:54,250 真正的有效 401 00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:55,710 如果还是往下跌 402 00:20:55,710 --> 00:20:57,109 趋势变平缓了 403 00:20:57,109 --> 00:20:58,990 变成了宽通道 404 00:20:59,309 --> 00:21:00,609 大拉升大回车 405 00:21:00,609 --> 00:21:02,809 大拉升大回车那种走法 406 00:21:02,809 --> 00:21:04,470 所以大家一起祈祷吧 407 00:21:04,470 --> 00:21:07,390 看看明天能不能给出真正的阳线哈 408 00:21:09,220 --> 00:21:10,819 好我们看下苹果 409 00:21:10,819 --> 00:21:12,980 苹果今天是领地哈 410 00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:15,000 涨价是吧 411 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,019 他很他其实无所谓哈 412 00:21:17,019 --> 00:21:18,200 它回调就回调 413 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,119 就这个位置磨叽了半天 414 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:21,140 终于下来了 415 00:21:21,140 --> 00:21:23,019 嗯对吧 416 00:21:23,019 --> 00:21:24,960 嗯跌呗 417 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,150 看他跌到哪了啊 418 00:21:27,150 --> 00:21:28,730 这边还是回调啊 419 00:21:28,730 --> 00:21:29,630 按照回调去看 420 00:21:30,670 --> 00:21:34,460 但是每次这个形态都不一样哈 421 00:21:35,259 --> 00:21:38,720 所以啊我们也不能去猜真正的底哈 422 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,099 我们还要再观察一下 423 00:21:40,099 --> 00:21:42,119 因为今天空头过于强势啊 424 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,180 所以多头要谨慎一点 425 00:21:44,710 --> 00:21:48,009 这个PLT2这个也是一个领跌股啊 426 00:21:48,009 --> 00:21:49,309 开始了吧 427 00:21:49,309 --> 00:21:50,470 它咋不涨呢 428 00:21:50,470 --> 00:21:54,250 有人说嗯我们之前的计划是在这做多的话 429 00:21:54,250 --> 00:21:55,690 这片定值怎么办 430 00:21:55,690 --> 00:21:57,529 掉下来就先离场对吧 431 00:21:57,529 --> 00:21:59,869 因为下行的空间非常大哈 432 00:21:59,869 --> 00:22:02,349 你看历史上再看是吧 433 00:22:02,349 --> 00:22:03,390 他也可以跌很深啊 434 00:22:04,430 --> 00:22:05,150 它跌到哪了 435 00:22:05,150 --> 00:22:10,029 不知道真的不知道他现在是已经腰斩了哈 436 00:22:10,029 --> 00:22:11,829 200降到100了 437 00:22:11,829 --> 00:22:13,559 这是107哈 438 00:22:13,559 --> 00:22:15,380 最高位是207 439 00:22:15,380 --> 00:22:17,960 已经50%对吧 440 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,039 可以再继续跌一跌嗯 441 00:22:20,039 --> 00:22:20,960 空头强吧 442 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,119 再看一眼啊 443 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,759 空头强嗯 444 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,390 好哎最后呢欢迎大家成为会员哈 445 00:22:29,390 --> 00:22:30,730 绿宝石会员好 446 00:22:30,730 --> 00:22:32,089 我们下一个时段再见 447 00:22:32,089 --> 00:22:32,839 拜拜
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