BV1CcTR61EFR · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:05,879 --> 00:00:06,639 大家好 2 00:00:06,639 --> 00:00:09,339 今天是7月6号星期一 3 00:00:09,339 --> 00:00:11,320 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:13,400 感谢您为视频点赞 5 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:16,149 转发打赏好 6 00:00:16,149 --> 00:00:19,969 我们先看下今天盘前的市场的表现 7 00:00:19,969 --> 00:00:25,390 那么纳指期货目前延续了周五啊给的一个小反弹哈 8 00:00:25,390 --> 00:00:27,309 那目前还是根小阳线 9 00:00:27,309 --> 00:00:33,469 在技术面上呢啊今天你可能要去再次测试一下下方的这个水平支撑位 10 00:00:33,469 --> 00:00:35,850 或者在这里继续无序震荡 11 00:00:35,850 --> 00:00:38,590 那目前东湖双方是一个震荡行情啊 12 00:00:38,590 --> 00:00:39,679 是一个震荡行情 13 00:00:39,679 --> 00:00:43,579 所以呢大家大家啊应该保持开放的思路 14 00:00:43,579 --> 00:00:46,000 我们说震荡行情它其实也可以涨的呀 15 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,628 他不是说一定会跌是吧 16 00:00:48,628 --> 00:00:50,969 我们把这些趋势线先扔一边去的话 17 00:00:50,969 --> 00:00:53,808 实际上它在这里震荡的对吧 18 00:00:53,808 --> 00:00:55,048 震荡表明什么 19 00:00:55,048 --> 00:00:58,759 表明当前市场不知道要走多头趋势 20 00:00:58,759 --> 00:01:00,960 还是要恢复到下跌趋势 21 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,710 或者给一个大的回撤啊 22 00:01:03,710 --> 00:01:06,539 其实给大的回撤呢也有好处 23 00:01:06,539 --> 00:01:13,198 但是坏处就是很多朋友可能会面临这个账户的这个盈利的一个回调 24 00:01:13,198 --> 00:01:14,450 这种风险哈 25 00:01:14,450 --> 00:01:15,909 回撤的概率高嘛 26 00:01:15,909 --> 00:01:18,950 嗯理论上概率应该是在增加哈 27 00:01:18,950 --> 00:01:21,129 不过呢我们说美股啊 28 00:01:21,129 --> 00:01:22,920 一切皆有可能对吧 29 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,819 嗯所以我们也我们刚才就说要保持开放的思路 30 00:01:26,819 --> 00:01:27,620 他愿意涨呢 31 00:01:27,620 --> 00:01:28,930 不拒绝对吧 32 00:01:28,930 --> 00:01:30,409 到时候我们把这些趋势线一划 33 00:01:30,409 --> 00:01:33,170 止损点一定他如果空头太过强势 34 00:01:33,170 --> 00:01:38,009 那我们就知道对于相当多的这个暴涨股来说 35 00:01:38,009 --> 00:01:39,709 适当中等回调啊 36 00:01:39,709 --> 00:01:41,509 也是可以接受的啊 37 00:01:41,509 --> 00:01:43,129 如果你是一个波段交易者 38 00:01:43,129 --> 00:01:47,390 你可能会动态的做一些减仓的一些应对是吧 39 00:01:47,390 --> 00:01:49,310 那我们看到一些重要的新闻呢 40 00:01:49,310 --> 00:01:53,909 也是让我们关注说下半年何去何从啊 41 00:01:53,909 --> 00:01:57,299 普遍华尔街普遍乐观看涨啊 42 00:01:57,299 --> 00:02:00,180 下半年是一个比较宽的时间段哈 43 00:02:00,180 --> 00:02:03,280 这个普遍看涨是最终的一个看涨 44 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:07,689 但过程呢可能不会说从现在开始就直接暴涨啊 45 00:02:07,689 --> 00:02:12,569 说要建议关注人工智能的验证和分散投资 46 00:02:12,569 --> 00:02:13,689 关注是啥呀 47 00:02:13,689 --> 00:02:15,810 最热门的人工智能领域 48 00:02:15,810 --> 00:02:21,479 它到底能不能有一些啊好的动向出来 49 00:02:21,479 --> 00:02:25,710 比如说还要不要继续增加这个资本投入哈 50 00:02:25,710 --> 00:02:29,949 另外呢就是有没有一些盈利性的项目给我们看一看啊 51 00:02:29,949 --> 00:02:31,270 或者说已经出来了 52 00:02:31,270 --> 00:02:35,659 也就是商业化的一个阶段性的一个利好是吧 53 00:02:35,659 --> 00:02:36,360 没有的话 54 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,969 可能市场可能有一有一些宽幅震荡的可能性 55 00:02:40,289 --> 00:02:44,229 第二个呢就是他认为的这个投资策略呢 56 00:02:44,229 --> 00:02:46,430 还是要适当的分散应对哈 57 00:02:46,430 --> 00:02:49,270 就是说不能过于的去压住个别股票 58 00:02:49,270 --> 00:02:55,530 因为你也不知道AI这个东西对部分行业或者企业有什么样的影响哈 59 00:02:55,530 --> 00:02:57,689 那如果赌对了也利好影响 60 00:02:57,689 --> 00:02:58,330 那还行 61 00:02:58,330 --> 00:03:00,009 如果赌方向堵反了 62 00:03:00,009 --> 00:03:02,169 那就有可能对吧被套 63 00:03:02,169 --> 00:03:07,500 所以我们的关注的焦点就是说还有一个就是说政策的动向 64 00:03:07,500 --> 00:03:09,500 第二个呢就是行业的这个动向 65 00:03:09,500 --> 00:03:11,250 第三个就是投资的手法 66 00:03:11,250 --> 00:03:15,120 要要要适当的控制一下风险哈 67 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,539 嗯我们看一下他的这个摘要哈 68 00:03:17,539 --> 00:03:22,349 他说美股上一个季度表现强劲 69 00:03:22,349 --> 00:03:24,810 标普和纳指分别都上涨了 70 00:03:24,810 --> 00:03:27,789 为6年来最佳的季度表现 71 00:03:27,789 --> 00:03:32,250 刚才我们也看到这个K线图也是啊直勾勾的往上涨对吧 72 00:03:32,250 --> 00:03:34,409 表现最好 73 00:03:34,889 --> 00:03:37,770 所以啊第二点他说华尔街普遍乐观 74 00:03:37,770 --> 00:03:44,270 预计标普500指数未来12个月将上涨21%年底目标哦 75 00:03:44,270 --> 00:03:47,250 这儿呢平均要到7700点左右哈 76 00:03:47,250 --> 00:03:53,199 第三呢策略师警告要警惕这个热门的行业哈 77 00:03:53,199 --> 00:03:54,759 所以这就是标题哈 78 00:03:54,759 --> 00:03:57,560 说建议关注人工智能的这个成果啊 79 00:03:57,560 --> 00:03:59,530 或者投资的一个验证 80 00:03:59,530 --> 00:04:01,210 要注意控制风险哈 81 00:04:01,210 --> 00:04:05,789 适当的嗯好这是一个整体的一个评估哈 82 00:04:05,789 --> 00:04:09,569 呃下半年的难度应该会比上半年要更大啊 83 00:04:09,569 --> 00:04:11,300 因为经过暴涨之后 84 00:04:11,300 --> 00:04:14,439 获利了结的盘子可能会出来 85 00:04:14,439 --> 00:04:17,160 会有一些减仓或者是大动作出现啊 86 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,810 后续的交易难度应该是在增加 87 00:04:19,810 --> 00:04:21,930 有人说之前的交易难度也很大呀 88 00:04:21,930 --> 00:04:25,178 这样这样真的对于个股来说就非常的复杂 89 00:04:25,178 --> 00:04:27,579 然后这个陡峭的拉升也很难啊 90 00:04:27,579 --> 00:04:28,978 因为不敢追高 91 00:04:28,978 --> 00:04:30,980 没错你说对了 92 00:04:30,980 --> 00:04:32,100 什么样的行情 93 00:04:32,100 --> 00:04:33,480 其实交易难度都很大啊 94 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,550 嗯好对于纳指来说 95 00:04:36,550 --> 00:04:38,430 我们就要关注这片咯是吧 96 00:04:38,430 --> 00:04:39,910 我们画的这个收敛三角形 97 00:04:39,910 --> 00:04:41,410 它是怎么着呢 98 00:04:41,410 --> 00:04:44,579 目前目前是一个局部震荡哈 99 00:04:44,579 --> 00:04:50,100 所以我们啊要继续观察空头或者是多头的一个动向啊 100 00:04:50,838 --> 00:04:52,338 我们看一下小盘股 101 00:04:52,338 --> 00:04:54,999 你看罗素他其实也是一个局部小震荡 102 00:04:54,999 --> 00:04:57,798 但如果你是这个画个框啊 103 00:04:57,798 --> 00:05:01,470 大概画一下你就知道又开始震荡了对吧 104 00:05:01,470 --> 00:05:06,048 这震荡他这是筑顶呢还是还是上涨中继继续涨呢 105 00:05:06,249 --> 00:05:07,488 市场是不知道的 106 00:05:07,488 --> 00:05:08,809 你我也是不知道的 107 00:05:08,809 --> 00:05:10,848 因为市场不知道都已经写在这了 108 00:05:10,848 --> 00:05:12,608 他给你用图给你画出来了 109 00:05:12,608 --> 00:05:14,709 K线就表明暂时不知道 110 00:05:14,709 --> 00:05:16,709 所以如果横了半天 111 00:05:16,709 --> 00:05:18,310 最后啪嚓掉下来了 112 00:05:18,310 --> 00:05:20,980 就知道又要来一个回调是吧 113 00:05:20,980 --> 00:05:22,180 他横了半天 114 00:05:22,180 --> 00:05:24,918 这就是应该再去测试这根长的趋势线哈 115 00:05:24,918 --> 00:05:26,319 他想摸到这个趋势线 116 00:05:26,319 --> 00:05:28,999 看一看大家愿不愿意再维持多头趋势 117 00:05:28,999 --> 00:05:30,550 如果不愿意呢 118 00:05:30,550 --> 00:05:32,230 啪嚓就掉下来了是吧 119 00:05:32,230 --> 00:05:35,629 所以啊这周啊看看这篇的表现 120 00:05:36,870 --> 00:05:40,459 道指呢道指愿意找啊是吧 121 00:05:40,459 --> 00:05:42,199 所以暂时是这样的哈 122 00:05:42,199 --> 00:05:44,540 把这趋势线再大概画一根 123 00:05:44,540 --> 00:05:48,310 当然这个陡峭趋势线呢不是说用它来止盈哈 124 00:05:48,310 --> 00:05:50,949 也可以长线趋势线为为界啊 125 00:05:50,949 --> 00:05:52,509 去判断最终的风险 126 00:05:52,509 --> 00:05:57,220 你看今天到欧洲早期时代还是微涨的这种状态是吧 127 00:05:57,220 --> 00:05:59,019 有说这三个不一样了哈 128 00:05:59,019 --> 00:06:02,089 嗯标普也是哈 129 00:06:02,089 --> 00:06:04,850 标普不完全是纯科技股哈 130 00:06:04,850 --> 00:06:06,620 但是科技股的权重比较大 131 00:06:06,620 --> 00:06:08,000 目前呢也要观察 132 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,040 因为科技股刚才我们看到纳指是这个是一个收敛的状态是吧 133 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:13,870 哎大概是这样 134 00:06:13,870 --> 00:06:16,870 我们东风商帮呢也要观察这片的一个表现 135 00:06:16,870 --> 00:06:19,670 是我们把长的曲线线扔一边去啊 136 00:06:19,670 --> 00:06:22,189 就说这片才是一个局部震荡了吧 137 00:06:22,189 --> 00:06:25,980 咱咱们暂时按照这个纳指的一个画法哈 138 00:06:25,980 --> 00:06:29,199 纳指期货的一个画法是看看接下来能不能创新高啊 139 00:06:29,199 --> 00:06:31,298 还是继续震荡啊是吧 140 00:06:31,298 --> 00:06:34,199 对这篇也是我们要关注的重点哈 141 00:06:34,199 --> 00:06:37,139 这一周特别是上半周哈 142 00:06:38,298 --> 00:06:42,329 好这是啊这几个哈 143 00:06:42,329 --> 00:06:45,170 那我们简单看一下黄金啊 144 00:06:45,170 --> 00:06:48,730 黄金符合我们多头局部小反弹的一个预期 145 00:06:48,730 --> 00:06:50,110 你看既然是反弹 146 00:06:50,110 --> 00:06:55,399 自然会有一些啊短线或者是日内交易者不断的高抛低吸是吧 147 00:06:55,399 --> 00:06:58,949 你看啊到现在呢又有点上影线哈 148 00:06:58,949 --> 00:07:02,370 表明在上行过程中再次遇到了一些局部的小阻力区哈 149 00:07:02,370 --> 00:07:03,600 有一些回调 150 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,800 我们看一下5分钟图嗯 151 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:11,339 大概呢就是市场认为啊这波反弹呢到了中间这一片儿哈 152 00:07:11,339 --> 00:07:12,540 有所小回落 153 00:07:12,540 --> 00:07:13,788 是这个图啊 154 00:07:13,788 --> 00:07:17,418 同时呢我们看到我们局部画出来的上涨趋势线 155 00:07:17,418 --> 00:07:19,619 被它向下向下突破下来了 156 00:07:19,619 --> 00:07:21,499 说突破下来一定走强空头吗 157 00:07:21,499 --> 00:07:22,199 不一定啊 158 00:07:22,199 --> 00:07:27,079 也可能是在啊4200点这一片震荡啊 159 00:07:27,079 --> 00:07:28,759 诶震荡上去再调回来 160 00:07:28,759 --> 00:07:29,740 这样是吧 161 00:07:29,740 --> 00:07:31,779 所以今天看看它能不能收上去 162 00:07:31,779 --> 00:07:32,639 如果掉下来呢 163 00:07:32,639 --> 00:07:33,959 就要去找下一个支撑位了 164 00:07:33,959 --> 00:07:35,660 在这里是吧 165 00:07:37,379 --> 00:07:38,819 好这是黄金 166 00:07:38,819 --> 00:07:40,220 黄金整体是牛是吧 167 00:07:40,220 --> 00:07:42,680 不是我们说的牛市啊 168 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,180 这大概你不对吧 169 00:07:44,180 --> 00:07:45,420 你好几个月不是牛市了 170 00:07:45,420 --> 00:07:46,908 基本上也就不是了哈 171 00:07:46,908 --> 00:07:47,788 这好几个月 172 00:07:47,788 --> 00:07:49,348 这这这这已经半年了哈 173 00:07:49,348 --> 00:07:50,389 从1月底到现在 174 00:07:50,389 --> 00:07:51,639 这正好半年 175 00:07:51,639 --> 00:07:53,480 所以这半年不是牛市哈 176 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:54,740 接下来是不是啊 177 00:07:54,740 --> 00:07:56,120 我估计也有点难度 178 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,600 上方套牢的人非常多哈 179 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,839 好这是这个好 180 00:08:03,839 --> 00:08:06,279 我们看一下热门股票有什么动向没有 181 00:08:06,279 --> 00:08:08,660 哎我们看哈 182 00:08:08,660 --> 00:08:11,560 我们大概浏览一下先好 183 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,040 那我们浏览到下边来 184 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,040 我们就先看一下闪迪 185 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,279 闪迪这个图 186 00:08:16,279 --> 00:08:20,800 他其实是真正的强势的向下突破了一下上涨趋势线啊 187 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,560 不管你是这么画趋势线还是这么画趋势线是吧 188 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:26,439 这个强劲的向下破位呢 189 00:08:26,439 --> 00:08:30,959 至少让我们感受到了市场它要给回调对吧 190 00:08:30,959 --> 00:08:32,960 或者是一个横盘洗盘啊 191 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,019 就像之前这些横盘一样 192 00:08:35,019 --> 00:08:38,789 那究竟这一次是哪一次是怎么样的一个洗盘啊 193 00:08:38,789 --> 00:08:41,440 毕竟我们大家还需要再观察一下啊 194 00:08:41,799 --> 00:08:43,500 他这里有一个置顶的消息 195 00:08:43,500 --> 00:08:46,960 说这个内存的涨价周期见顶了吗 196 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:52,490 美银称三大利空仍未改写这个供需啊 197 00:08:52,490 --> 00:08:54,330 什么叫没改写供需啊 198 00:08:54,330 --> 00:09:00,679 首先供需是供不应求哈啊但是呢过程中面临三大利空哈 199 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,840 我看看他又搞什么搞什么幺蛾子哈 200 00:09:05,259 --> 00:09:12,190 呃这个什么你这啊这里有三大绿化啊 201 00:09:12,190 --> 00:09:15,710 meta被曝计划对外出租AI算力啊 202 00:09:15,710 --> 00:09:16,940 这是一个 203 00:09:16,940 --> 00:09:21,318 然后长鑫存储可能进入苹果IPHONE的供应链 204 00:09:21,318 --> 00:09:22,198 啥意思呀 205 00:09:22,198 --> 00:09:25,859 就是中国的供应商进入到美国的供应链啊 206 00:09:25,859 --> 00:09:28,700 也就是说这什么意思呢 207 00:09:28,700 --> 00:09:33,529 也就是说冲击了美美国企业的这个额利润空间吗 208 00:09:33,529 --> 00:09:35,470 或者说收入空间是吧 209 00:09:35,470 --> 00:09:36,889 市场叫市占率啊 210 00:09:36,889 --> 00:09:39,419 被被被被摊薄了 211 00:09:39,419 --> 00:09:41,279 或者说被削弱了 212 00:09:41,279 --> 00:09:46,600 然后韩国又公布约800万亿韩元的半导体和存储投资计划 213 00:09:48,250 --> 00:09:51,350 但不足以证明AI周期已经反转了 214 00:09:51,750 --> 00:09:56,389 嗯这个这这三点我看的不是太清晰啊 215 00:09:56,759 --> 00:09:57,580 好吧 216 00:09:57,580 --> 00:09:59,919 说这里有一个呃问题 217 00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:00,759 对市场来说 218 00:10:00,759 --> 00:10:02,820 股价回调背后的问题很直接 219 00:10:02,820 --> 00:10:05,740 说AI需求是不是开始被证伪 220 00:10:05,740 --> 00:10:09,519 供给会不会突然就放大嗯 221 00:10:09,519 --> 00:10:11,940 嘶美银给出的乐观啊 222 00:10:11,940 --> 00:10:14,700 答案呢是偏谨慎乐观的好 223 00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:18,929 短期的价格和出口数据仍支持内存景气上行 224 00:10:18,929 --> 00:10:22,149 但投资者已经不再只看涨价 225 00:10:22,149 --> 00:10:25,029 而是开始追问涨价能维持多久 226 00:10:25,029 --> 00:10:27,549 嗯好这是第一点哈 227 00:10:27,549 --> 00:10:29,750 这是说meta算力出租 228 00:10:29,750 --> 00:10:32,889 其实这个SPACEX也是搞算力出租的对吧 229 00:10:32,889 --> 00:10:34,929 他有一个业务啊 230 00:10:34,929 --> 00:10:37,169 说不等于AI订单已经削减 231 00:10:38,169 --> 00:10:41,529 但是需需求应该是等于吧 232 00:10:41,529 --> 00:10:44,799 怎么不等于呢啊我卖他 233 00:10:44,799 --> 00:10:47,879 我都不愿意用那么多算力去搞AI了 234 00:10:47,879 --> 00:10:48,559 我要出租了 235 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:49,879 说明供大于求了 236 00:10:49,879 --> 00:10:55,279 算力这个啊更像苹果的谈判筹码 237 00:10:55,279 --> 00:11:00,480 苹果要和比如说美国或者说其他的这个韩国企业去谈判 238 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:01,159 啥意思呢 239 00:11:01,159 --> 00:11:02,279 压低价格的意思 240 00:11:02,279 --> 00:11:03,860 你得给我降价是吧 241 00:11:03,860 --> 00:11:05,000 这个对不对 242 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:05,600 企业来说 243 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:09,299 对美国的这些啊芯片企业来说不是一件利好哈 244 00:11:09,299 --> 00:11:10,059 你要降价 245 00:11:10,059 --> 00:11:12,559 因为中国这边更便宜哈 246 00:11:13,759 --> 00:11:17,139 好好这个啊 247 00:11:17,139 --> 00:11:19,559 这个800万亿韩元的这个投资计划 248 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,289 不是未来两年的新增工具哈 249 00:11:23,610 --> 00:11:28,750 好吧说很容易被市场误读为这个新一轮的大扩产哈 250 00:11:28,750 --> 00:11:31,250 不知道了哈啊 251 00:11:31,250 --> 00:11:34,250 那么消息面呢总是会挖掘一些迹象哈 252 00:11:34,250 --> 00:11:36,730 但是技术面不会骗人对吧 253 00:11:36,730 --> 00:11:38,769 所以很多人不是太喜欢消息面 254 00:11:38,769 --> 00:11:41,210 但知道一下消息面会有一点帮助哈 255 00:11:41,210 --> 00:11:42,940 但技术面最直接了 256 00:11:42,940 --> 00:11:44,659 你就是一根大阴线下来了 257 00:11:44,659 --> 00:11:47,360 看看今天能不能反弹起来是吧 258 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:48,360 那如果能反弹起来 259 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:49,440 那就是宽幅震荡了 260 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:50,120 那也可以啊 261 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,309 他也算是一种洗盘模式哈 262 00:11:52,309 --> 00:11:54,470 我们不是说为了为了看大空 263 00:11:54,470 --> 00:11:55,830 而他看大空我没有啊 264 00:11:55,830 --> 00:11:58,909 因为他毕竟整体氛围还是一个多头的氛围啊 265 00:11:58,909 --> 00:12:00,328 那么今天就看啊 266 00:12:00,328 --> 00:12:03,279 看接下来几个交易日是在高位横盘洗盘 267 00:12:03,279 --> 00:12:07,080 这种乐观的洗牌模式还是偏震荡下行的对吧 268 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:11,289 哎所以我现在我们先画一个这个我们先画个啥呢 269 00:12:11,289 --> 00:12:12,210 换一个支撑位啊 270 00:12:12,210 --> 00:12:13,830 看一看今天哦 271 00:12:13,830 --> 00:12:15,490 今天买家已经天空高开了啊 272 00:12:15,490 --> 00:12:18,480 可见这个反弹的需求应该还是有的啊 273 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:22,389 因为要证明一下DOTA要想拖住自己嘛 274 00:12:22,389 --> 00:12:24,049 他就必须得往上拉升哈 275 00:12:24,049 --> 00:12:25,710 形成横盘洗盘是吧 276 00:12:25,710 --> 00:12:27,210 那如果DOTA支楞不住哈 277 00:12:27,210 --> 00:12:28,799 必定是有些什么事哈 278 00:12:28,799 --> 00:12:30,799 基本面的一个稍微的小恶化 279 00:12:30,799 --> 00:12:32,909 会引发一个更深一点的回调 280 00:12:32,909 --> 00:12:34,590 那究竟会怎么样呢 281 00:12:34,590 --> 00:12:38,480 这片需要接下来几根K线的一个验证是吧 282 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,590 嗯理论上长线的这个大波段已经基本结束哈 283 00:12:42,590 --> 00:12:43,990 即便是后续震荡呢 284 00:12:43,990 --> 00:12:45,509 也要再找震荡止跌的架构 285 00:12:45,509 --> 00:12:47,090 再去重新做多是吧 286 00:12:47,090 --> 00:12:49,950 所以每一波有每一波的做法 287 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,149 啧我们看一下啊 288 00:12:53,149 --> 00:12:55,809 特斯拉特斯拉也是一个局部震荡行情 289 00:12:55,809 --> 00:13:00,129 目前没有什么呃特别好的一个利好消息面啊 290 00:13:00,129 --> 00:13:05,299 因为它他其实也面临着这个增长疲软的这种窘境哈 291 00:13:06,539 --> 00:13:08,490 呃好吧 292 00:13:09,769 --> 00:13:11,049 这个没什么重点啊 293 00:13:11,049 --> 00:13:12,169 那目前是一个震荡啊 294 00:13:12,169 --> 00:13:14,970 看看啊今天震荡会怎么样 295 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,809 我们看一下戴尔 296 00:13:18,809 --> 00:13:20,690 戴尔也是一个高位震荡哈 297 00:13:20,690 --> 00:13:22,690 他没有跌破我们的最终的支撑位哈 298 00:13:22,690 --> 00:13:26,860 就是我们的常见趋势线肯定是啊最陡峭的缺肯定是被破了啊 299 00:13:26,860 --> 00:13:30,340 但接下来能不能强劲的往下形成一个空头大突破 300 00:13:30,340 --> 00:13:31,929 突破这个支撑位呢 301 00:13:31,929 --> 00:13:33,649 形成更深一点回调呢 302 00:13:33,649 --> 00:13:35,029 这篇要看啊 303 00:13:35,029 --> 00:13:37,370 这篇要看嗯 304 00:13:38,620 --> 00:13:40,580 这华人街又有个什么画啊 305 00:13:40,580 --> 00:13:42,499 看一眼啊 306 00:13:42,499 --> 00:13:43,558 风散了去哈 307 00:13:43,558 --> 00:13:47,318 说一级瓦工厂成本约1000亿美元 308 00:13:47,318 --> 00:13:50,519 说AI的成本持续抬升 309 00:13:51,649 --> 00:13:54,289 AI的成本持续抬升 310 00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:56,528 为啥呢 311 00:13:56,528 --> 00:13:59,708 理论上AI的成本应该下降才对呀 312 00:14:01,028 --> 00:14:02,708 单位产出啊 313 00:14:02,708 --> 00:14:09,859 比如说你原来生成一个这个网友的这个生成一个答案吧 314 00:14:09,859 --> 00:14:11,938 你要消耗多少的 315 00:14:11,938 --> 00:14:14,899 这个成本现在应该降下来点会更好吧 316 00:14:14,899 --> 00:14:17,100 它为什么还会要增再增加呢 317 00:14:17,100 --> 00:14:19,909 我感觉不是太理解哈 318 00:14:20,149 --> 00:14:22,509 因为虽然供不应求啊 319 00:14:22,509 --> 00:14:24,470 但是供应量也是越来越多了呀 320 00:14:24,470 --> 00:14:28,720 除非这个需求量远快于这个供给量啊 321 00:14:28,919 --> 00:14:30,620 也有可能对吧 322 00:14:30,620 --> 00:14:32,720 这个真实数据没人去统计啊 323 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,649 都是他自己张嘴就说好 324 00:14:35,649 --> 00:14:36,330 那对于戴尔来说 325 00:14:36,330 --> 00:14:38,250 我们要关注这片能不能支棱柱是吧 326 00:14:39,330 --> 00:14:40,590 支棱柱它就是好横 327 00:14:40,590 --> 00:14:42,009 这个叫高位横盘洗盘 328 00:14:42,009 --> 00:14:44,004 然后继续找哈 329 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:47,039 我们继续看啊 330 00:14:47,039 --> 00:14:48,779 我们看一下美观啊 331 00:14:48,779 --> 00:14:53,100 这个美观这个也是有回调的这种迹象啊 332 00:14:53,100 --> 00:14:58,500 但他应该还是高位横盘震荡的概率高一点呃 333 00:14:58,500 --> 00:15:00,779 看他有个新项目哈 334 00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:02,899 投资93亿美元 335 00:15:02,899 --> 00:15:08,318 美光广岛HBM工厂启动扩建嗯 336 00:15:08,719 --> 00:15:14,458 他说旨在生产包括高带宽存储器在内的先进存储芯片 337 00:15:14,458 --> 00:15:17,850 以满足人工智能浪潮带来的旺盛需求 338 00:15:18,129 --> 00:15:23,059 扩建项目将于2028年夏季左右开始量产出货 339 00:15:23,580 --> 00:15:26,299 以日本呢以拨款高达5000亿日元 340 00:15:26,299 --> 00:15:29,700 以帮助支付相关费用哈 341 00:15:29,970 --> 00:15:30,769 好吧 342 00:15:30,769 --> 00:15:32,909 那现在是2026年7月份啊 343 00:15:32,909 --> 00:15:34,669 到2028年还两年呢 344 00:15:34,669 --> 00:15:36,809 一年半以后啊 345 00:15:37,679 --> 00:15:40,000 好那么中长期的需求应该没变啊 346 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,840 但市场啊应该会有一些洗盘的一个需求哈 347 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:45,399 贴图 348 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:50,960 我们看一下英特尔也是一样哈 349 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,889 英特尔啊也是有点回调这种小需求呃 350 00:15:54,889 --> 00:15:56,049 这里也有个消息面哈 351 00:15:56,049 --> 00:15:59,470 大概看一眼英特尔上调了多款CPU的价格 352 00:15:59,470 --> 00:16:04,730 服务器芯片最高涨超1300美元嗯 353 00:16:04,730 --> 00:16:06,639 我们继续看哈 354 00:16:06,639 --> 00:16:11,179 正式宣布上调部分消费级与服务级处理器的售价 355 00:16:11,179 --> 00:16:15,919 涨幅从数十美元到千余美元不等 356 00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:19,480 消费级的error lake系列调价温和 357 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,769 且仅针对特定的SSKU 358 00:16:21,769 --> 00:16:25,909 更多折射出需求旺盛而非纯粹成本的转嫁 359 00:16:25,909 --> 00:16:29,009 服务器端axon啊 360 00:16:29,009 --> 00:16:31,190 这个芯片涨幅更大 361 00:16:31,190 --> 00:16:39,080 部分型号较发布的价格啊涨超1300美元嗯好吧 362 00:16:40,159 --> 00:16:42,529 涨价说明还在涨价 363 00:16:42,529 --> 00:16:44,009 说明真的是供不应求哈 364 00:16:45,169 --> 00:16:47,210 所以说现在市场会怎么样呢 365 00:16:47,210 --> 00:16:48,820 啧对吧 366 00:16:48,820 --> 00:16:50,299 市场会怎么样呢 367 00:16:50,299 --> 00:16:51,940 所以今天也要看一看哈 368 00:16:51,940 --> 00:16:52,980 空头能不能行啊 369 00:16:52,980 --> 00:16:53,620 空头不能行 370 00:16:53,620 --> 00:16:54,980 就高高位窄幅横盘一下 371 00:16:54,980 --> 00:16:57,799 继续涨哈对吧 372 00:16:57,799 --> 00:16:59,940 如果仅是一个天空空黑上往下砸 373 00:16:59,940 --> 00:17:02,620 那就要测一下下方100这一带的支撑位了 374 00:17:02,620 --> 00:17:05,369 嗯好这是英特尔 375 00:17:05,369 --> 00:17:08,009 所以我们说啊一个是扩建 376 00:17:08,009 --> 00:17:09,539 一个是涨价 377 00:17:09,539 --> 00:17:11,740 另外就是苹果那一端啊 378 00:17:11,740 --> 00:17:15,339 它要通过啊更低廉的这个芯片去谈判哈 379 00:17:15,339 --> 00:17:16,539 压低价格 380 00:17:16,539 --> 00:17:19,059 也就是说他有压低价格的需求 381 00:17:19,059 --> 00:17:21,638 说明公还是不应求的 382 00:17:21,638 --> 00:17:23,838 但是他他嫌太贵了哈 383 00:17:23,838 --> 00:17:26,138 他需要便宜的是吧 384 00:17:26,138 --> 00:17:29,278 另外一个就是meta这个算力的出租 385 00:17:29,750 --> 00:17:32,789 这些消息面都是混在一起的 386 00:17:32,789 --> 00:17:36,599 那可能每一个企业它传递的是不同的信号 387 00:17:36,599 --> 00:17:40,019 那么市场有可能有震荡洗盘的这种可能性嗯 388 00:17:40,089 --> 00:17:42,359 因为没有一致性的预期了 389 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,289 没有一致性的供小于求的预期了 390 00:17:45,289 --> 00:17:47,289 好因为有供过于求啊 391 00:17:47,289 --> 00:17:50,329 有算力出租这种信号开始出现了哈 392 00:17:52,660 --> 00:17:55,619 好看AMDAMD也是啊 393 00:17:55,619 --> 00:17:58,500 要注意这片我们也可以画一个支撑位啊 394 00:17:58,500 --> 00:18:01,239 观察一下这片能不能支棱住强劲往下破 395 00:18:01,239 --> 00:18:04,710 我就知道有更宽幅震荡的需需求哈 396 00:18:05,269 --> 00:18:08,210 呃这里有一个新的新闻哈 397 00:18:08,210 --> 00:18:10,990 AAMD跑GLM5.2 398 00:18:10,990 --> 00:18:12,950 成本只要英伟达的一半 399 00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:17,210 嗯就说公不应求 400 00:18:17,210 --> 00:18:19,569 指的是硬件的数量 401 00:18:19,569 --> 00:18:21,390 如果价格往下弄 402 00:18:21,390 --> 00:18:26,750 那就要看数量的增速和价格的减速 403 00:18:26,750 --> 00:18:28,890 他们俩之间能不能乘在一起的时候 404 00:18:28,890 --> 00:18:35,190 还导致整体的市场容量的一个总总收入的一个增长是吧 405 00:18:35,190 --> 00:18:37,579 总啊对吧 406 00:18:37,579 --> 00:18:39,259 那叫什么总金额的一个增长 407 00:18:39,259 --> 00:18:41,039 那这个数现在没人统计哈 408 00:18:41,039 --> 00:18:45,220 不知道好这个降价它也不是一个利好啊 409 00:18:46,339 --> 00:18:47,240 英特尔涨价 410 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,940 AMD有有低成本的这种可能性啊 411 00:18:49,940 --> 00:18:52,670 这好坏交织在一起 412 00:18:52,670 --> 00:18:54,869 还真有可能震荡洗盘啊 413 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:00,319 好我们继续看哈 414 00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:04,640 这个博通博通目前技术面就是回调啊 415 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,779 就是回调嗯 416 00:19:07,589 --> 00:19:10,269 这里没有什么重要的新闻哈 417 00:19:10,269 --> 00:19:13,529 没有什么重要的新闻好吧 418 00:19:13,529 --> 00:19:15,869 只要提防这种回调变成这种模式啊 419 00:19:15,869 --> 00:19:18,089 这篇这种目前止跌了吗 420 00:19:18,089 --> 00:19:18,569 还没有啊 421 00:19:18,569 --> 00:19:20,210 技术面没有止跌哈 422 00:19:20,210 --> 00:19:22,509 我们看看多头回归的一个情况 423 00:19:22,509 --> 00:19:24,150 也有可能突然就止跌啊 424 00:19:24,150 --> 00:19:25,450 就像那个亚马逊一样 425 00:19:25,450 --> 00:19:27,250 突然就来个大阳线 426 00:19:28,239 --> 00:19:28,638 好 427 00:19:28,638 --> 00:19:29,798 我们看下英伟达 428 00:19:29,798 --> 00:19:32,470 英伟达目前也没有真正的止跌哈 429 00:19:32,470 --> 00:19:34,529 你要是按照局部下跌趋势来说 430 00:19:34,529 --> 00:19:36,390 他没没没有到右侧哈 431 00:19:36,390 --> 00:19:37,269 要看一看 432 00:19:37,269 --> 00:19:38,950 你要说按长线趋势线来说 433 00:19:38,950 --> 00:19:41,710 这长线趋势线也是我们主观判断的 434 00:19:41,710 --> 00:19:44,109 它也可以继续跌一下是吧 435 00:19:44,109 --> 00:19:46,849 所以啊目前没有止跌哈 436 00:19:46,849 --> 00:19:49,940 这里有没有重要的新闻嗯 437 00:19:49,940 --> 00:19:52,279 这里又有一个再度爆料的负面新闻啊 438 00:19:52,279 --> 00:19:58,240 说英伟达的caber n v l144机架延迟超12个月 439 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:04,909 因PCB中的中版制造困难啊 440 00:20:05,229 --> 00:20:07,729 所以这个应该是利好还是利坏呢 441 00:20:07,729 --> 00:20:09,730 叫重大延迟啊 442 00:20:09,730 --> 00:20:10,809 仅三个月后 443 00:20:10,809 --> 00:20:12,549 该产品遭遇重大挫折 444 00:20:12,549 --> 00:20:13,769 延迟超12个月 445 00:20:13,769 --> 00:20:15,970 推迟到2028年 446 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,079 我就严重怀疑他不是真正的哈 447 00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:20,700 这个就没有证伪哈 448 00:20:20,700 --> 00:20:21,720 那推迟的话 449 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,559 那就是说它的增量要放到2028年了哈 450 00:20:24,559 --> 00:20:27,159 这一片的不知道啊 451 00:20:27,159 --> 00:20:31,638 这个也要新闻媒体来进一步解读才行是吧 452 00:20:31,638 --> 00:20:35,069 嗯那如果都推迟的话 453 00:20:35,069 --> 00:20:37,549 OpenAI也推迟上市的话 454 00:20:38,210 --> 00:20:42,130 对市场来说不是一件特别利好的一个状况 455 00:20:42,450 --> 00:20:46,170 或者他们的行为已经反映了接下来一段时间的 456 00:20:46,170 --> 00:20:48,089 对于我们投资者来说 457 00:20:48,089 --> 00:20:48,930 交易者来说啊 458 00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:51,220 市场的复杂度在增加哈 459 00:20:51,539 --> 00:20:53,779 英伟达镇目前没有止跌 460 00:20:55,559 --> 00:21:00,159 好我们刚才提到这个亚马逊的走法就突然的就开始震荡了哈 461 00:21:00,159 --> 00:21:02,959 嗯这里有个重要的消息面哈 462 00:21:02,959 --> 00:21:08,759 说亚马逊aw s上调ASIC服务器的出货量啊 463 00:21:08,759 --> 00:21:13,920 交较第三季度上调了这个出货量哈 464 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,460 较原本出货量再拉升两到三成哈 465 00:21:17,460 --> 00:21:18,730 增加了两到三成 466 00:21:18,730 --> 00:21:22,650 意味着aw s对CHINEM3的销售前景是乐观的 467 00:21:22,650 --> 00:21:26,130 CHINEM3也是一个芯片啊 468 00:21:26,299 --> 00:21:31,099 那英伟达推迟亚马逊芯片增加啊 469 00:21:31,099 --> 00:21:34,359 这都是对每个公司的命运都不一样啊 470 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:35,299 影响啊 471 00:21:35,299 --> 00:21:36,680 那么对于亚马逊来说 472 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:44,119 看这片继续震荡的可能性好嗯大家比较关注的是PENTAGER啊 473 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:44,989 我们看一下啊 474 00:21:44,989 --> 00:21:47,828 黑蓝其实这个跟黄金走势类似啊 475 00:21:47,828 --> 00:21:49,368 都是震荡下行的通道 476 00:21:49,368 --> 00:21:52,380 那多头呢做多之后是一个反弹的视角 477 00:21:52,380 --> 00:21:53,460 他愿意反弹到哪儿 478 00:21:53,460 --> 00:21:54,240 反弹到哪儿 479 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:55,819 反弹到这些趋势线的时候 480 00:21:55,819 --> 00:21:57,000 必然会有回调啊 481 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,730 或者横盘洗盘啊 482 00:21:58,730 --> 00:21:59,769 或者反弹的不到 483 00:21:59,769 --> 00:22:01,609 那又又回调一下 484 00:22:01,609 --> 00:22:05,519 总之呢多头在空头的视野范围内哈 485 00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:06,799 势力范围内啊 486 00:22:06,799 --> 00:22:09,599 他的预期应该比右侧要降低哈 487 00:22:09,599 --> 00:22:12,180 因为不是多头的一个背景是吧 488 00:22:12,180 --> 00:22:15,059 所以多头要注意控制风险啊 489 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:23,690 网友问会员问这个ADB怎么看ADBE边上看吧对吧 490 00:22:23,690 --> 00:22:28,009 我把这个下跌趋势线阻力区画一画 491 00:22:29,630 --> 00:22:31,809 看这怎么样 492 00:22:31,809 --> 00:22:32,970 现在也说哎呀 493 00:22:32,970 --> 00:22:35,519 这就是大号版的PLLT2嗯 494 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,859 比那PT2复杂多了哈 495 00:22:38,859 --> 00:22:39,920 凶猛多了啊 496 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,000 PT2至少横盘震荡让你解套啊 497 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,170 这横盘一下一直就是快速下跌 498 00:22:45,170 --> 00:22:47,069 当前你是想抄底哈 499 00:22:47,069 --> 00:22:49,569 其实你现在做多的话也可以啊 500 00:22:49,569 --> 00:22:51,230 但是你是左侧交易者哈 501 00:22:51,230 --> 00:22:53,589 你的预期就是这样一个反弹 502 00:22:53,589 --> 00:22:55,670 如果它掉下来就赶紧跑吧 503 00:22:56,829 --> 00:22:58,079 是不嗯 504 00:22:58,079 --> 00:22:59,759 因为它下行空间也不是不小啊 505 00:22:59,759 --> 00:23:01,079 也可以继续抵啊 506 00:23:01,079 --> 00:23:05,430 我们一般是右侧交易者会比较比较安全哈 507 00:23:05,430 --> 00:23:07,769 左侧交易者只能画局部小多头趋势线啊 508 00:23:07,769 --> 00:23:09,730 你看这里有止跌止跌 509 00:23:09,730 --> 00:23:10,789 OK双层小底哈 510 00:23:10,789 --> 00:23:12,029 做一个局部震荡上行 511 00:23:12,029 --> 00:23:13,910 可以做多之后你要注意啊 512 00:23:13,910 --> 00:23:15,369 这片就开始有阻力区了 513 00:23:15,369 --> 00:23:17,650 这一这一块是吧 514 00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:18,869 一旦看见不妙啊 515 00:23:18,869 --> 00:23:21,099 就要注意风险啊 516 00:23:23,380 --> 00:23:25,940 好最后呢欢迎大家都成为会员哈 517 00:23:25,940 --> 00:23:28,380 因为YOUTUBE的限流非常严重哈 518 00:23:28,380 --> 00:23:31,380 有时候你看不到更好的内容 519 00:23:31,380 --> 00:23:34,140 所以大家花点儿钱成为会员 520 00:23:34,140 --> 00:23:35,940 也可以看一些更多的内容哈 521 00:23:35,940 --> 00:23:37,420 好嘞好 522 00:23:37,420 --> 00:23:38,640 我们盘后再看啊 523 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:39,279 拜拜
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