【NaNa说美股】20260702还让不让人好好过节了？！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是7月2号周四

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美国250周年大庆啊

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结果华尔街呢精准砸崩了美国AI半导体

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大盘看着虽然风平浪静

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标普500今天平收

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纳指收跌0.8%

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老登嗯

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道指甚至还收涨1.14%

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但这不过是资金轮动式避险的障眼法

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昨天meta引发的连锁反应呢迅速蔓延

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并且触发了熔断机制

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三星电子与SK海力士双双重挫

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美股存储板块也跟随全线溃败

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DYM跌近8%闪跌

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SNDK呢跌超14%嗯

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美光科技跌了5.5%

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前几天多同盟还在摇旗呐喊美观冲击2000美元

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转眼间就变成了1000美元保卫战了

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市场情绪变化太快

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在6月下旬

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存储板块就一直在继续狂欢

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和周期见顶的担忧之间反复横跳

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自从苹果炮轰了美光科技之后

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这存储就蔫了哈

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当算力紧缺的蓄势松动

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那估值体系的重构就不可避免

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而苹果这个元凶呢股价却连续大涨

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苹果已经将首款折叠屏IPHONE

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今年的生产准备目标上调到约1000万步

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高于此前预计的700万到800万步

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看来是要大卖嗯

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此外还传出苹果至于两家中国芯片厂商

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长江存储和长鑫存储展开谈判

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计划采购存储芯片用于中国市场部分产品

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这消息也对这个美股存储板块的情绪呢

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造成了沉重打击

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市场担心中国本土存储芯片杀入苹果供应链

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这会威胁美观

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在消费级内存市场的毛利和定价权

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更让华尔街担心

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苹果这个超级金主

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可能在供应链多元化的名义之下

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逐步剔除掉美光科技这个刺头的市场份额

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算利租赁股昨天已经被砸了一轮了

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今天继续滑坡

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IREN呢跌了10.4%

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call waver跌了4.6%

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昨天meta引起的算力过剩担忧还没有消退

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今天软银又宣布计划在美国推出AI云服务

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下一财年就开始出租算力

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这更进一步加剧了市场对这个云计算赛道

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陷入内卷价格战的担忧

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当大厂将合作协议中的算力变成批发商品

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投入市场

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华尔街对这些新兴嗯云服务商

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未来利润率的预期呢便产生了动摇

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也许市场对此存在过度的解读哈

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但这个大家都知道

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金融市场交易的是预期

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而并非现实呀

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在牛鞭效应下

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任何算力可能没那么紧缺的信号

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都足以让这个产业链重新计算估值

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跌到这个50日均线才止跌

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硬件领域正经历痛苦的估值回归

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虽然AI的长期逻辑并没有彻底破碎哈

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五大甲方

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微软

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谷歌

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亚马逊

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meta甲骨文仍在重金善修AI资本开支

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但是短期情绪呢已经开始降温

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指数这边由于大非农爆冷

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美国6月新增就业人口5.7万人

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只有经济学家预期11.3万人的一半

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前值还有17.2万下调到12.9万

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6月失业率呢从4.3%

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下滑到4.2%

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低于预期4.3%

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你想要什么样的数据都可以给你编出来哈

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反正连续这么两份劳动力报告意外爆冷之后呢

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市场就削减了对美联储加息的压注呃

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确实一度提振了这个市场情绪

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美股今天盘出全线走高

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但是由于科技股的拖累

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尤其是存储股跌幅持续扩大

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纳指与标普500呢很快就逆转了

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早盘涨势走低

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标普500指数连续五两天收出十字星哈

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这暴露了美股市场在这个下半年

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新节点上的犹豫与分起

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多头还是信心有点不足啊

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都在等待Q2财报季的最终判决

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当然也可能是深蹲蓄力

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为了这个财报季做准备

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多数机构认为

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在企业强劲基本面的支撑之下

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标普500指数仍有望继续攀高

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嗯但是这个散展呢可能就并非一帆风顺

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其他个股与板块方面

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其他几个巨头的股价都表现相当疲软

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可能也与SPACEX下周即将加入纳指100有关

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跟踪纳指100的指数基金为了挪腾仓位

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被迫对现有巨头进行结构性减持

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这是一种被动的存量资金抽水

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那也难怪今天巨头们都不行了哈

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当然苹果除外

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那不一样

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meta昨天刚刚雄起

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今天又萎了

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小撒在内部股东大会上承认

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过去四个月里

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AI智能体的开发速度并没有达到预期

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华尔街原本看好meta转型云计算赛道

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觉得能够带来新的收入

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但是现在这个资本市场开始冷静下来了

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因为云计算业务的毛利率远不如meta的广告主页

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一旦转型的话

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那公司整体利润率大概率会被拉低

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OpenAI呢又想搞事

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据英国金融时报报道

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Open ai

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正讨论让美国政府持有公司5%的股份

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明面上说哈是为了合规审查

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为了大众利益

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但真正目的呢估计是想抱大腿复制英特尔模式

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让政府给他拉人头

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拉资源

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大家还记得去年年底

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OpenAI CFO那句震惊全场的

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借不到钱就找政府兜底啊

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在当时引发了巨震哈

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市场反应非常的强烈

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几个科技巨头总市值

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那时候一夜蒸发了将近4300亿美元

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虽然事后紧急公关说哎这都是误会

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但现在的这个让股计划

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更像是那个策略的升级版

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open m m这个举动呢暴露了耐力不足

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如果公司账面上现金足够支撑未来的算力扩张

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那他完全不需要用

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让渡5%股权给美国政府

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来换取生存保障呀

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这恰恰向市场传递了一个信号

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就是OpenAI

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那个纯AI模型城的商业化变现速度可能快

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要跟不上硬件更新换代的烧钱速度啦

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这订单这个到处发钱不够了

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这让市场呢更担心AI硬件资本开支的鉴定

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英伟达股价冲击200美元关口再次失败哈

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连续三天都没能够站上去嗯

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半导体涨的时候它被吸血

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半导体跌的时候呢

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哎它又是硬件了

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跟着跌

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the information接连爆出了两个利空

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一个呢是on top

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上个月

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试图绕过英伟达

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另一篇报道呢

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是为了不被几个大客户卡脖子扶持

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第三方小弟们

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就那些新兴云产商哈来当制衡巨头们的筹码

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因为达达搞起了AI算力合作计划

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向租售他显卡的那些小弟们提供财务兜底承诺

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如果这些公司无法找到足够的AI开发者

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租用算力

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那英伟达就可以呃

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以约定价格回租那些没有卖出去的这显卡产能

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作为交换呢

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英伟达将会抽取这些云厂商的营收分成

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当初00年CISCO就玩过这个套路哈

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在2000年互联网泡沫破裂前夕

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CISCO是全球市值第一的公司

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无数初创的电信运营商想要买这个CISCO的路由器

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没钱

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为了维持业绩神话

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CICO呢就自己出资或者找银行担保

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借钱给这些小弟公司们

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让他们来买自己的设备

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所以当时CSGO的报表做得非常的漂亮

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营收利润原地起飞

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结果大家都知道了哈

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最后泡沫一破

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这些小弟们全倒了

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路由器呢砸在手里根本卖不出去

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CCO不仅收不回贷款

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还要计提巨额坏账

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股价直接跌到了90%

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现在的英伟达好像也在干同样的事情

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他通过金融手段锁定了短期订单

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财报看起来华丽无比哈

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但本质上是将下游的风险

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全都绑在了自己的身上

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这其实也解释了为什么最近一年来

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英伟达股价就一直涨不动的原因

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市场对英伟达的共识正在发生动摇哈

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任何一个行业

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当行业老大开始扮演

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中央银行和最后贷款人的角色

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那就意味着繁荣啊

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已经到了必须要靠高杠杆和金融

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延伸工具来维持的地步了

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但咱们也得保持理性啦

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因为the information呢是英伟达的老空头了

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每到市场最恐慌的时候

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他们就跳出来精准投放各种利空报道

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所以这些消息中间既有对风险的警示哈

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也有刻意制造恐慌的成分

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00:10:14,110 --> 00:10:17,328
在特斯拉今天的走势也挺讽刺的

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00:10:17,328 --> 00:10:19,889
Q2交付了48万辆汽车

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00:10:19,889 --> 00:10:23,100
大幅超过华尔街与期的39.6万辆

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00:10:23,100 --> 00:10:25,419
按理来说是个大大利好哈

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00:10:25,419 --> 00:10:28,129
结果股价直接暴跌了7.5%

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00:10:28,129 --> 00:10:32,549
有分析认为股价在此之前已经累涨了四天

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00:10:32,549 --> 00:10:34,159
消化了大部分预期

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00:10:34,159 --> 00:10:37,240
而且呢投资者已经不把特斯拉当车企看了哈

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00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,828
而是把它当成AI机器人公司

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00:10:39,828 --> 00:10:42,749
昨天马斯克发布了一张与OPTIMUS

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00:10:42,749 --> 00:10:46,539
量产团队在特斯拉工厂内的合照

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00:10:46,539 --> 00:10:50,649
引发了市场对量产进度的广泛的猜测呃

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00:10:50,649 --> 00:10:54,070
但是今天马斯克在X上回应一名用户

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00:10:54,070 --> 00:10:57,250
关于阿基莫斯V3提前量产的猜测时

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就明确表示呃

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00:10:59,110 --> 00:11:02,450
这个OPTIMER是生产初期将会极其缓慢

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00:11:02,450 --> 00:11:03,909
因为一切都是全新的

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00:11:03,909 --> 00:11:05,639
这不像造车那么简单

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00:11:05,639 --> 00:11:07,720
这位外界的乐观预期呢

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00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,200
一下子就踩下了刹车

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好吧

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00:11:09,700 --> 00:11:12,039
这其实都是给下跌后找理由哈

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00:11:12,039 --> 00:11:12,639
各位朋友们

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00:11:12,639 --> 00:11:16,350
核心还是市场现在的容忍度变低了

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00:11:16,350 --> 00:11:18,809
一旦AI蓄势稍有延后

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多头就会找理由清仓

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00:11:20,610 --> 00:11:22,909
比特币这边连续两天反弹

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00:11:22,909 --> 00:11:24,389
美股AI降温

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00:11:24,389 --> 00:11:27,129
资金开始从AI硬件中撤离

241
00:11:27,129 --> 00:11:29,230
回流到了一部分呃

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00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:30,710
加密这一边呃

243
00:11:30,710 --> 00:11:32,049
今天加密概念股

244
00:11:32,049 --> 00:11:33,639
金融股都走的不错

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00:11:33,639 --> 00:11:36,639
高通股价近期也是持续下跌

246
00:11:36,639 --> 00:11:38,659
亚马逊向CNBC透露

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00:11:38,659 --> 00:11:41,259
正在自研消费电子芯片

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00:11:41,259 --> 00:11:41,909
计划

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00:11:41,909 --> 00:11:45,068
2027年起替代外购方案

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00:11:45,068 --> 00:11:48,089
因为亚马逊今年一季度自有现金流

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00:11:48,089 --> 00:11:49,649
只有12亿美元哈

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00:11:49,649 --> 00:11:52,749
呃自研芯片的目的呢是为了降低成本

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00:11:52,749 --> 00:11:56,679
已知此这个公司继续AI基建方面的投入

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00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:58,779
市场担心这会对高通

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00:11:58,779 --> 00:12:03,830
联发科等亚马逊现有供应商们构成长期压力呃

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00:12:03,830 --> 00:12:06,309
就一个大客户可能要失去了行

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00:12:06,309 --> 00:12:08,549
今天我们就说到这里吧

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那祝大家这个接下来常周末愉快

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00:12:11,009 --> 00:12:12,953
我们下次见拜拜

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