BV1VJ786XEEt · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,160 大家好 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,279 我们继续分析美股 3 00:00:10,279 --> 00:00:13,359 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 4 00:00:13,359 --> 00:00:16,960 随后分析大盘指数和热门股票 5 00:00:23,289 --> 00:00:26,410 大幅降低算力成本 6 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,059 芯片发布与成本优势 7 00:00:36,939 --> 00:00:38,100 Diala panel 8 00:00:39,340 --> 00:00:41,500 首批样品已投入测试 9 00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:44,939 该芯片专为AI任务优化 10 00:00:44,939 --> 00:00:49,609 相比传统GPU可节省约50%的成本 11 00:00:49,609 --> 00:00:53,130 旨在通过硬件优化提升竞争力 12 00:00:53,130 --> 00:00:56,179 并降低运营开销 13 00:00:56,500 --> 00:00:59,598 部署计划与算力规模 14 00:00:59,598 --> 00:01:02,779 最终版芯片将于今年晚些时候 15 00:01:02,779 --> 00:01:07,409 部署至微软等合作伙伴的大型数据中心 16 00:01:07,409 --> 00:01:09,390 博通CEO预计 17 00:01:09,390 --> 00:01:12,269 双方明年的芯片部署规模 18 00:01:12,269 --> 00:01:17,140 将超越此前预测的1.3几瓦算力 19 00:01:17,140 --> 00:01:22,959 以应对当前极其旺盛的AI算力需求 20 00:01:23,998 --> 00:01:26,659 供应链多元化战略 21 00:01:26,659 --> 00:01:30,980 为缓解对英伟达芯片的高度依赖 22 00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:34,459 并满足AI服务激增的需求 23 00:01:34,459 --> 00:01:38,510 opp i正积极扩大供应商来源 24 00:01:38,510 --> 00:01:40,790 公司不仅自研芯片 25 00:01:40,790 --> 00:01:44,379 还与AAMD及SARAH 26 00:01:44,379 --> 00:01:50,099 systems等厂商签署了数10亿美元的合作协议 27 00:01:50,099 --> 00:01:52,299 以保障算力供应 28 00:01:52,299 --> 00:01:54,650 资本市场积极反馈 29 00:01:54,650 --> 00:01:58,230 受首款定制芯片发布及合作 30 00:01:58,230 --> 00:02:00,469 前景向好的消息提振 31 00:02:00,469 --> 00:02:03,329 资本市场反应积极 32 00:02:04,900 --> 00:02:06,480 芯片融资安排 33 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,460 针对巨额硬件投入的资金来源 34 00:02:09,460 --> 00:02:13,079 OpenAI硬件负责人拒绝透露细节 35 00:02:13,079 --> 00:02:17,179 称融资将在最终订单确定后敲定 36 00:02:17,179 --> 00:02:19,009 博通则重申 37 00:02:19,009 --> 00:02:23,009 已与阿波罗全球管理和黑石集团 38 00:02:23,009 --> 00:02:25,810 设立了专门的芯片融资工具 39 00:02:25,810 --> 00:02:27,900 以提供支持 40 00:02:27,900 --> 00:02:30,659 全站基础设施战略 41 00:02:31,979 --> 00:02:34,860 jella panel芯片的推出 42 00:02:34,860 --> 00:02:41,560 标志着OpenAI正从模型层向底层硬件延伸 43 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,199 构建全站基础设施 44 00:02:44,199 --> 00:02:46,459 通过自主设计芯片 45 00:02:46,459 --> 00:02:51,538 OpenAI希望更好地掌控算力成本与性能 46 00:02:51,538 --> 00:02:57,169 为未来AI服务的规模化普及奠定坚实基础 47 00:02:59,659 --> 00:03:01,460 摆脱台积电依赖 48 00:03:01,460 --> 00:03:06,060 苹果借英特尔代工破局产能瓶颈 49 00:03:06,870 --> 00:03:09,590 战略逻辑与产能需求 50 00:03:09,590 --> 00:03:12,689 苹果转向英特尔采购芯片 51 00:03:12,689 --> 00:03:16,090 旨在解决台积电因AI芯片 52 00:03:16,090 --> 00:03:19,629 需求激增而导致的产能瓶颈 53 00:03:19,629 --> 00:03:24,349 这一合作不仅有助于缓解IPHONE的销售制约 54 00:03:24,349 --> 00:03:28,349 也是苹果寻求制造产能多元化 55 00:03:28,349 --> 00:03:32,030 降低单一供应链依赖的必然战略选择 56 00:03:33,189 --> 00:03:36,530 漫长周期与信任考验 57 00:03:36,530 --> 00:03:41,019 先进芯片的制造过程极其漫长且严苛 58 00:03:41,019 --> 00:03:45,179 从复杂系统级芯片设计到量产 59 00:03:45,179 --> 00:03:47,649 至少需要两年多时间 60 00:03:47,649 --> 00:03:51,308 由于英特尔缺乏代工过往业绩 61 00:03:51,308 --> 00:03:57,989 苹果此举面临巨大的商业与财务风险 62 00:03:57,989 --> 00:04:03,709 被业内形容为需要巨大信任飞跃的闪婚 63 00:04:05,159 --> 00:04:08,000 政策推动与资本背书 64 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:13,039 这笔潜在交易契合了美国重建本土芯片制造 65 00:04:13,039 --> 00:04:14,530 的宏大计划 66 00:04:14,530 --> 00:04:18,569 得益于政府持股及英伟达的巨额投资 67 00:04:18,569 --> 00:04:21,420 英特尔成为关键支柱 68 00:04:21,420 --> 00:04:26,149 在特朗普政府的关税与激励措施推动下 69 00:04:32,759 --> 00:04:36,000 工艺选择与量产预期 70 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,779 关于苹果将采用的制造工艺 71 00:04:38,779 --> 00:04:40,589 业内存在分歧 72 00:04:40,589 --> 00:04:42,430 部分分析师认为 73 00:04:42,430 --> 00:04:47,930 苹果会采用更成熟的18AP工艺 74 00:04:47,930 --> 00:04:49,850 以确保可靠性 75 00:04:49,850 --> 00:04:51,350 另有观点指出 76 00:04:51,350 --> 00:04:55,939 其可能选择更先进的14A工艺 77 00:04:55,939 --> 00:04:58,019 无论哪种初期量产 78 00:04:58,019 --> 00:05:02,879 大概率将推迟至2027年底甚至更晚 79 00:05:04,519 --> 00:05:07,980 低风险是谁与对冲策略 80 00:05:07,980 --> 00:05:09,500 为控制风险 81 00:05:09,500 --> 00:05:12,730 苹果极可能采取对冲策略 82 00:05:12,730 --> 00:05:18,649 先让英特尔代工Macbook air等非关键低端组件 83 00:05:18,649 --> 00:05:21,959 而非最核心的旗舰芯片 84 00:05:21,959 --> 00:05:24,319 通过这种低风险试水 85 00:05:24,319 --> 00:05:28,100 苹果可以逐步验证英特尔的制造能力 86 00:05:28,100 --> 00:05:31,269 再决定是否扩大合作范围 87 00:05:31,509 --> 00:05:34,459 良率挑战与市场预期 88 00:05:34,459 --> 00:05:38,600 英特尔历来面临芯片良率不佳的顽疾 89 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,589 而苹果对良率有着极其严苛的标准 90 00:05:42,589 --> 00:05:45,750 尽管英特尔近期取得长足进步 91 00:05:45,750 --> 00:05:50,500 但投资者对其能否完美执行仍存疑虑 92 00:05:50,500 --> 00:05:53,220 业内呼吁适度降低预期 93 00:05:53,220 --> 00:05:57,220 认为其兑现承诺仍需实践 94 00:05:59,379 --> 00:06:02,120 高通发布数据中心CPU 95 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:07,300 与meta达成多代战略合作 96 00:06:08,350 --> 00:06:10,750 达成数据中心战略合作 97 00:06:10,750 --> 00:06:16,279 高通公司宣布与科技巨头meta达成重要合作 98 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:21,339 meta已同意在其基础设施中采用 99 00:06:21,339 --> 00:06:24,680 高通新款数据中心处理器 100 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:25,600 这一合作 101 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,879 标志着高通在蓬勃发展的AI设备市场中 102 00:06:29,879 --> 00:06:32,319 成功站稳脚跟 103 00:06:32,319 --> 00:06:35,759 首款定制芯片亮相 104 00:06:36,259 --> 00:06:38,680 作为此次合作的核心 105 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,680 meta将在其设施中部署 106 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:47,069 高通专为数据中心打造的dragon fly c 107 00:06:47,069 --> 00:06:51,790 1000芯片及后续产品 108 00:06:51,790 --> 00:06:57,470 这款微处理器计划于2028年正式推向市场 109 00:06:57,470 --> 00:07:02,910 将为meta的下一代服务器集群提供算力支撑 110 00:07:05,079 --> 00:07:07,379 顺应AI算力支出浪潮 111 00:07:07,379 --> 00:07:09,980 此次合作消息的公布 112 00:07:09,980 --> 00:07:13,949 恰逢高通在纽约举办的一系列活动 113 00:07:14,050 --> 00:07:17,410 高通正密集发布一系列新产品 114 00:07:17,410 --> 00:07:21,908 旨在抓住人工智能算力支出激增的历史机遇 115 00:07:21,908 --> 00:07:26,209 希望在这一轮AI基础设施建设的浪潮中 116 00:07:26,209 --> 00:07:28,079 分得一杯羹 117 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,600 压铸AI终端设备普及 118 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:36,389 高通的战略眼光并未局限于云端 119 00:07:36,389 --> 00:07:40,850 而是随着人工智能逐渐走出数据中心 120 00:07:40,850 --> 00:07:43,839 并融入日常生活压铸 121 00:07:43,839 --> 00:07:47,079 未来将有更多类型的终端设备 122 00:07:47,079 --> 00:07:50,418 需要支持AI技术的芯片 123 00:07:50,418 --> 00:07:55,579 从而构建从云端到边缘的完整生态 124 00:07:56,339 --> 00:07:58,360 摆脱单一业务依赖 125 00:07:58,360 --> 00:07:59,540 长期以来 126 00:07:59,540 --> 00:08:03,740 高通的营收高度依赖智能手机业务 127 00:08:03,740 --> 00:08:06,399 此次进军数据中心市场 128 00:08:06,399 --> 00:08:10,350 涉及推动业务多元化布局的关键一步 129 00:08:10,350 --> 00:08:17,930 旨在拓展汽车机器人和数据中心等高增速赛道 130 00:08:17,930 --> 00:08:21,490 以降低对单一市场的依赖 131 00:08:21,730 --> 00:08:23,889 应对市场短期波动 132 00:08:23,889 --> 00:08:28,699 尽管高通在AI硬件领域取得重大突破 133 00:08:28,699 --> 00:08:34,480 但受整体市场环境即资金流向影响 134 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:35,940 消息公布当日 135 00:08:35,940 --> 00:08:38,568 高通股价出现下跌 136 00:08:38,568 --> 00:08:40,288 不过长远来看 137 00:08:40,288 --> 00:08:42,149 与meta的深度绑定 138 00:08:42,149 --> 00:08:45,708 有望为其未来几年的数据中心业务 139 00:08:45,708 --> 00:08:49,370 带来数10亿美元的收入 140 00:08:49,769 --> 00:08:52,350 好我们看一下今天市场的表现 141 00:08:59,570 --> 00:09:04,350 正好摸到了我们所画的这根平缓的上涨趋势线 142 00:09:04,350 --> 00:09:05,429 摸到之后 143 00:09:05,429 --> 00:09:08,070 它没有能有效跌破 144 00:09:08,070 --> 00:09:10,230 相反呢有所反弹 145 00:09:10,230 --> 00:09:13,009 不过呢由于今天仍旧是阴线哈 146 00:09:13,009 --> 00:09:15,129 我们还没有看到真正的阳线 147 00:09:15,129 --> 00:09:17,929 所以多头呢还要进一步谨慎哈 148 00:09:17,929 --> 00:09:21,350 那么后续呢也完全有可能继续微微震荡下行啊 149 00:09:21,350 --> 00:09:24,299 到下方的这个水平支撑位 150 00:09:24,299 --> 00:09:26,740 不过也可以不跌继续涨 151 00:09:26,740 --> 00:09:29,419 我们看一下5分钟图 152 00:09:32,289 --> 00:09:34,169 我们刚才画的日线图的趋势线 153 00:09:34,169 --> 00:09:36,830 就这么一连就到这这片对吧 154 00:09:36,830 --> 00:09:42,759 我们现在应该把局部的下跌小曲先给他画一根 155 00:09:44,099 --> 00:09:46,859 好那么接下来我们就观察这片是往下走一走 156 00:09:46,859 --> 00:09:49,119 你还是直接上去是吧 157 00:09:49,119 --> 00:09:50,219 也可以直接上去吗 158 00:09:50,219 --> 00:09:51,750 当然可以 159 00:09:52,190 --> 00:09:53,970 这个回撤这个形态呀 160 00:09:53,970 --> 00:09:55,730 什么样的形态都有啊 161 00:09:55,730 --> 00:09:58,490 我们再看一下日线好 162 00:09:58,490 --> 00:10:01,099 他在这指见完全不要感到意外 163 00:10:01,099 --> 00:10:02,078 为什么呢 164 00:10:02,078 --> 00:10:04,958 因为我们之前说在横向阻力区 165 00:10:04,958 --> 00:10:08,389 在这根上涨趋势线之间收敛震荡 166 00:10:08,389 --> 00:10:09,870 或者是这震一震 167 00:10:09,870 --> 00:10:11,389 最后还是选择向上 168 00:10:11,389 --> 00:10:13,828 这种可能性也要考虑的 169 00:10:13,828 --> 00:10:18,389 事实上这种可能性的概率要远高于走熊市哈 170 00:10:18,389 --> 00:10:22,950 要远高于啊继续下跌这种模式对吧 171 00:10:22,950 --> 00:10:26,440 嗯说下跌下来就能抬上去吗 172 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:27,899 有可能啊 173 00:10:27,899 --> 00:10:29,940 嗯所以干脆就不低哈 174 00:10:29,940 --> 00:10:32,480 直接涨上去也是完全有可能的 175 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,340 所以这个收敛震荡是比较中性偏小 176 00:10:35,340 --> 00:10:37,299 乐观的一个预期哈 177 00:10:38,318 --> 00:10:43,658 好不过呢我们应该啊进一步提高警惕 178 00:10:43,658 --> 00:10:48,059 因为很多图表啊都有一种视觉上的顶部架构啊 179 00:10:48,059 --> 00:10:52,909 所以震荡下行的情况也要考虑到好 180 00:10:52,909 --> 00:10:55,429 这是科技股还行吧 181 00:10:55,429 --> 00:10:59,360 最后你看这个收跌的情况有所收敛哈 182 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,799 下跌0.5%左右嗯 183 00:11:01,799 --> 00:11:02,840 空头强吧 184 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:04,340 没有那么强啊 185 00:11:04,340 --> 00:11:05,259 没有那么强 186 00:11:05,259 --> 00:11:06,620 他为什么没那么讲 187 00:11:06,620 --> 00:11:09,370 因为整体大趋势还是多头 188 00:11:09,610 --> 00:11:11,809 空头认为当前也是回撤级别的 189 00:11:11,809 --> 00:11:13,850 所以他赚一点就跑了 190 00:11:14,259 --> 00:11:18,339 我们看到这里这三根阳线也是很非常的强势哈 191 00:11:18,339 --> 00:11:20,739 那么相对于这三根大阳线来说 192 00:11:21,938 --> 00:11:24,099 当前更像是一个回调 193 00:11:24,340 --> 00:11:27,860 今天盘后应该是有这个美光的财报哈 194 00:11:27,860 --> 00:11:29,500 嘿嘿弹起来了 195 00:11:29,500 --> 00:11:32,828 我们先看一下美光的情况吧 196 00:11:32,869 --> 00:11:34,528 嗯没有吧 197 00:11:34,528 --> 00:11:35,969 现在还没发布吧 198 00:11:35,969 --> 00:11:37,570 看一眼啊 199 00:11:38,250 --> 00:11:39,289 还没有发布 200 00:11:40,330 --> 00:11:42,289 公布第三季度创纪录的业绩 201 00:11:43,370 --> 00:11:46,450 哎呀看看好吧 202 00:11:46,450 --> 00:11:48,929 那就是说业绩上还可以啊 203 00:11:48,929 --> 00:11:52,870 嗯不要一位投资者称不要错过美国 204 00:11:52,870 --> 00:11:54,539 嗯好了 205 00:11:54,539 --> 00:11:56,340 回到我们的大盘吧 206 00:11:56,340 --> 00:11:57,899 那么这样的话 207 00:11:57,899 --> 00:12:03,080 那这根K线在是这个刚收盘一分钟不到 208 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:03,919 就弹起来了 209 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,639 猛吧嗯咱们再看一下5分钟图啊 210 00:12:08,639 --> 00:12:11,320 就这篇直接给你弄起来了 211 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:12,000 那么这样的话 212 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:16,559 全天收跌的情况不到0.1%哈 213 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,889 现在拉起来了吧 214 00:12:19,169 --> 00:12:22,110 好所以我们说说什么来着 215 00:12:22,110 --> 00:12:23,889 可能说收敛震荡 216 00:12:23,889 --> 00:12:26,450 这个情形是比较中性的一个预期 217 00:12:26,450 --> 00:12:28,629 中性就是说不倾向于过跌 218 00:12:28,629 --> 00:12:30,190 也不倾向于过涨啊 219 00:12:30,190 --> 00:12:31,409 在这里震一震 220 00:12:31,409 --> 00:12:33,330 在这个角三角内部啊 221 00:12:33,330 --> 00:12:35,029 震一震好 222 00:12:35,029 --> 00:12:36,429 看来有这种情况 223 00:12:36,429 --> 00:12:38,549 但是呢也要看到下一个交易日 224 00:12:38,549 --> 00:12:40,169 能收出阳线才行哈 225 00:12:40,169 --> 00:12:44,240 待我如果接下来一个时段还是收出强势的阴线 226 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,159 那就要去摸这个支撑区才可以反弹了 227 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:50,899 我们看下罗素 228 00:12:50,899 --> 00:12:52,840 罗素今天人家收阳线哈 229 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:53,480 不用理睬 230 00:12:54,759 --> 00:12:55,879 到指也是一样 231 00:12:55,879 --> 00:12:57,759 是阳线 232 00:12:58,649 --> 00:13:00,269 那么标普啊 233 00:13:00,269 --> 00:13:04,740 这个除了科技股有所小颓废之外啊 234 00:13:04,740 --> 00:13:07,940 那么标普基本上就是十字星K线了对吧 235 00:13:07,940 --> 00:13:10,639 因为其他的成分股是首涨 236 00:13:10,639 --> 00:13:12,360 而这个科技股微跌 237 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,399 我们再看一下纳指哈 238 00:13:14,399 --> 00:13:15,360 微微的吧 239 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,580 嗯好 240 00:13:17,580 --> 00:13:19,159 我们看一下黄金哈 241 00:13:19,159 --> 00:13:21,759 今天的黄金是创了新低哈 242 00:13:21,759 --> 00:13:23,000 创了什么的新低 243 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,049 就这一波震荡下行的新低 244 00:13:26,049 --> 00:13:27,450 跌破了4000点 245 00:13:27,450 --> 00:13:28,789 又有所反弹啊 246 00:13:28,789 --> 00:13:31,929 所以这片啊如果后续没有强势的大阳线 247 00:13:31,929 --> 00:13:33,789 估计就悬了 248 00:13:33,789 --> 00:13:37,149 就往下走了好吧 249 00:13:37,149 --> 00:13:38,820 这是黄金 250 00:13:47,370 --> 00:13:49,049 也就是说继续往下跌落 251 00:13:49,049 --> 00:13:50,110 跌到这片了 252 00:13:50,110 --> 00:13:51,669 六七十的样子啊 253 00:13:51,669 --> 00:13:54,129 震荡就可以了 254 00:13:55,500 --> 00:13:59,460 那么这样的话对于后续美联储降息是有帮助的 255 00:13:59,460 --> 00:14:01,980 至少是不加息对吧 256 00:14:01,980 --> 00:14:05,599 哎这个可以把这通胀往下砸一砸 257 00:14:05,839 --> 00:14:08,239 好我们的纳指还在收场哈 258 00:14:08,239 --> 00:14:11,318 好我们看下市场整体的情况吧 259 00:14:11,870 --> 00:14:16,120 嗯由于这个四点啊就收盘哈 260 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,379 所以很多图都是收跌的 261 00:14:18,379 --> 00:14:21,350 但实际上盘后纳指还在反弹啊 262 00:14:21,350 --> 00:14:24,849 所以明天盘前可能会有所跳空高开 263 00:14:27,489 --> 00:14:30,909 软件基础设施微下跌的幅度大一点 264 00:14:31,190 --> 00:14:34,100 然后其他全都微涨微跌哈 265 00:14:34,500 --> 00:14:36,399 今天领涨板块也无所谓 266 00:14:36,399 --> 00:14:37,860 好我们回到我们的 267 00:14:38,899 --> 00:14:41,100 回到我们的热门列表 268 00:14:42,250 --> 00:14:43,610 这里 269 00:14:45,879 --> 00:14:49,159 好我们先看一下谁捏 270 00:14:49,850 --> 00:14:51,370 我们再看一下美光吧 271 00:14:51,370 --> 00:14:53,490 看看有没有什么积极的进展 272 00:14:54,929 --> 00:14:57,570 嗯这里有数字了哈 273 00:14:58,339 --> 00:14:59,658 我们先看一下 274 00:15:01,778 --> 00:15:06,240 哎呀这个这我都不知道从哪看了哈好吧 275 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:07,000 先看这个吧 276 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:12,279 嗯第三季度的营收是414.6亿 277 00:15:12,279 --> 00:15:15,929 预估的值是356.9亿 278 00:15:15,929 --> 00:15:17,690 大大超出预期 279 00:15:17,690 --> 00:15:19,730 嗯好嘞 280 00:15:19,730 --> 00:15:23,179 第四季度的这个指引 281 00:15:23,179 --> 00:15:26,809 大概是在490到510亿之间哈 282 00:15:26,809 --> 00:15:28,509 好了就这样吧 283 00:15:28,509 --> 00:15:31,929 我们看到盘后呢还在大幅的拉涨啊 284 00:15:31,929 --> 00:15:36,009 嗯那么这样的话还跌吗 285 00:15:36,009 --> 00:15:36,990 对吧 286 00:15:36,990 --> 00:15:39,830 你看有些公司出财报是往下砸 287 00:15:39,830 --> 00:15:41,049 比如说博通 288 00:15:42,169 --> 00:15:44,350 比如说微软嗯 289 00:15:44,350 --> 00:15:46,350 但是美观这个确实强哈 290 00:15:46,350 --> 00:15:50,970 我们之前有一个新闻是说你不是弄AI吗 291 00:15:50,970 --> 00:15:54,990 AI最基本的还是存储需求 292 00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:57,309 就说大量的这种AI需求啊 293 00:15:57,309 --> 00:16:00,259 最终还是要把数据存起来是吧 294 00:16:00,259 --> 00:16:04,340 所以存储需求是指数级的不断的暴涨 295 00:16:04,610 --> 00:16:05,769 好嘞 296 00:16:07,330 --> 00:16:09,369 我看下他今天5分钟图啊 297 00:16:09,369 --> 00:16:10,729 他虽然有所谓破位啊 298 00:16:10,729 --> 00:16:12,469 但财报给他驱动上去了 299 00:16:12,469 --> 00:16:13,649 盘后还在涨 300 00:16:13,649 --> 00:16:17,679 这样的话不能看强势的回撤好 301 00:16:17,679 --> 00:16:19,740 也要看明天啊到底会怎么样啊 302 00:16:19,740 --> 00:16:22,740 受限的情况不是太悲观对吧 303 00:16:22,740 --> 00:16:25,820 嗯好我们看一下其他的图表 304 00:16:28,220 --> 00:16:29,399 嗯我们倒着看吧 305 00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:33,289 嗯我们看一下CRWV这个图 306 00:16:33,289 --> 00:16:35,370 今天空头也不是说太强 307 00:16:35,370 --> 00:16:37,350 他实际上还是这个震荡 308 00:16:37,350 --> 00:16:40,339 他这种震荡的手法呢跟这种差不多哈 309 00:16:40,339 --> 00:16:44,298 所以我觉得这这个区域还是这一块这一块啊 310 00:16:44,298 --> 00:16:46,058 还是应该做多对吧 311 00:16:46,058 --> 00:16:48,110 还是应该做多会好一点 312 00:16:48,110 --> 00:16:49,950 盘后也有所上涨啊 313 00:16:49,950 --> 00:16:51,230 因为这个空头啊 314 00:16:51,230 --> 00:16:53,169 他不是一个数值的强趋势 315 00:16:53,169 --> 00:16:54,309 它只是一个横盘 316 00:16:54,309 --> 00:16:55,529 无需震荡是吧 317 00:16:55,529 --> 00:16:59,519 更像是一个啊斜向的一个通道哈 318 00:16:59,519 --> 00:17:02,620 可能还是要看涨好 319 00:17:02,620 --> 00:17:03,820 我们看一下甲骨文 320 00:17:03,820 --> 00:17:08,559 甲骨文这个盘后没有怎么涨对嗯 321 00:17:08,559 --> 00:17:09,799 甲骨文是什么呢 322 00:17:09,799 --> 00:17:11,319 甲骨文是数据库 323 00:17:11,319 --> 00:17:16,009 而这个镁光啊他是存储芯片哈 324 00:17:16,009 --> 00:17:17,450 也不一样啊 325 00:17:17,450 --> 00:17:20,078 甲骨文是软件类的为主 326 00:17:20,078 --> 00:17:21,858 应该是这么理解吧 327 00:17:21,858 --> 00:17:23,199 软件数据库 328 00:17:23,199 --> 00:17:27,799 而数据库呢是比较相对来说成熟的啊 329 00:17:27,799 --> 00:17:29,740 但是存储芯片是硬件啊 330 00:17:29,740 --> 00:17:33,099 他需要真真正正的把这些数据库安在里边 331 00:17:33,099 --> 00:17:38,710 然后这个各种数据啊要存储起来好 332 00:17:38,710 --> 00:17:40,509 甲骨文这个没有能质地哈 333 00:17:40,509 --> 00:17:42,769 今天是一根阴线 334 00:17:43,390 --> 00:17:44,789 我们看一下高通 335 00:17:44,789 --> 00:17:46,930 高通他其实也是一个横盘 336 00:17:46,930 --> 00:17:50,460 他这块跟刚才那个ZRWV也类似 337 00:17:50,740 --> 00:17:54,140 高通啊本身就是做这个手机啊 338 00:17:54,140 --> 00:17:56,059 汽车那些芯片的哈 339 00:17:56,059 --> 00:17:59,509 现在呢只不过他想在AI领域 340 00:17:59,509 --> 00:18:01,470 看到了未来的一个机会哈 341 00:18:02,710 --> 00:18:05,509 把这个把这个做细做深哈 342 00:18:05,509 --> 00:18:06,599 做精通 343 00:18:06,599 --> 00:18:09,339 所以高通也有可能还是要做多 344 00:18:09,339 --> 00:18:11,240 这片是个横盘震荡哈 345 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,710 看涨的概率高一点 346 00:18:14,269 --> 00:18:16,190 跟那个CRWV类似哈 347 00:18:16,190 --> 00:18:20,970 形态上PENTATER是属于软件应用啊 348 00:18:20,970 --> 00:18:24,259 所以近期的软件应用不行是吧 349 00:18:26,599 --> 00:18:27,539 所以不能踩底 350 00:18:28,539 --> 00:18:30,559 Pattier 351 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,240 我们看下微软也是软件哈 352 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,240 今天没有能收出阳线来 353 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,480 相反又收出了一根阴线哈 354 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,420 这样的话多头还得等 355 00:18:39,420 --> 00:18:41,259 说万一真的掉下去呢 356 00:18:41,259 --> 00:18:42,539 像MEA一样啊 357 00:18:42,539 --> 00:18:44,339 或者或者像奈奈飞一样 358 00:18:44,339 --> 00:18:46,779 那就没办法了 359 00:18:47,759 --> 00:18:49,089 我们继续看啊 360 00:18:49,089 --> 00:18:52,369 我们看一下A2M盘后也是收涨啊 361 00:18:52,369 --> 00:18:54,150 盘后也是跳空往上拉升 362 00:18:54,150 --> 00:18:57,069 这样的话这里横盘无需震荡的概率高一点 363 00:18:57,069 --> 00:18:59,980 好好看下特斯拉 364 00:18:59,980 --> 00:19:01,660 特斯拉也是往下走了 365 00:19:02,819 --> 00:19:04,299 不要抱太大的期望啊 366 00:19:04,299 --> 00:19:06,779 可能也是无序震荡什么的 367 00:19:07,390 --> 00:19:09,589 我们说奈飞这个也是啊往下走了吧 368 00:19:10,950 --> 00:19:12,369 奈飞好 369 00:19:12,369 --> 00:19:14,589 头肩顶往下走 370 00:19:18,319 --> 00:19:23,970 我们这个半导体XXL这个它占这个刚刚好 371 00:19:23,970 --> 00:19:25,710 没有跌破我们的常见趋势线 372 00:19:25,710 --> 00:19:27,450 这跟大盘是一样的啊 373 00:19:27,450 --> 00:19:28,369 往下刺了一下 374 00:19:28,369 --> 00:19:29,109 抬了起来 375 00:19:29,109 --> 00:19:31,170 盘后又大幅的拉涨哈 376 00:19:31,170 --> 00:19:34,089 那么这样的话怎么办对吧 377 00:19:34,089 --> 00:19:37,160 这样的话看一看明天的K线路 378 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:38,819 说今天的空头强吗 379 00:19:38,819 --> 00:19:40,920 很显然不强吧 380 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:42,180 空头不强吧 381 00:19:42,180 --> 00:19:43,680 微跌0.8% 382 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,500 长长的下影线 383 00:19:45,500 --> 00:19:48,759 连一个像样的大阴线都没给啊 384 00:19:48,759 --> 00:19:53,209 所以啊今天也不算是一个重要的决策日 385 00:19:53,209 --> 00:19:56,289 我们说要再看一看来着是吧 386 00:19:56,289 --> 00:19:59,390 我看是meta meta也比较颓废哈 387 00:19:59,390 --> 00:20:03,670 这个这个漂亮的阳线就是不给哈 388 00:20:04,029 --> 00:20:07,029 嗯如果往下掉的话 389 00:20:07,029 --> 00:20:08,789 一定要注意了 390 00:20:09,250 --> 00:20:10,410 我们看一下英伟达 391 00:20:11,490 --> 00:20:13,609 英伟达今天的空头也不是太强 392 00:20:13,609 --> 00:20:16,049 但英伟达有个什么问题呢 393 00:20:16,630 --> 00:20:17,609 竞争啊 394 00:20:17,609 --> 00:20:18,869 竞争的问题啊 395 00:20:18,869 --> 00:20:20,470 各种自研芯片 396 00:20:20,470 --> 00:20:22,410 定制芯片啊 397 00:20:22,410 --> 00:20:23,390 开始来了 398 00:20:23,390 --> 00:20:26,339 去冲击英伟达的市场份额哈 399 00:20:26,740 --> 00:20:27,660 不过啊 400 00:20:27,660 --> 00:20:31,079 咱们这个CPU和GPU领域都是一个增量市场啊 401 00:20:31,079 --> 00:20:34,069 即便冲击呢也是市场份额的一个 402 00:20:34,069 --> 00:20:35,809 也不一定会怎么低啊 403 00:20:35,809 --> 00:20:37,289 市场份额是一个比例 404 00:20:37,289 --> 00:20:38,190 也不一定说 405 00:20:38,190 --> 00:20:42,190 英伟达一定会减少这个市场占有率是吧 406 00:20:42,190 --> 00:20:46,240 嗯好我们看明天能不能收出阳线来啊 407 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:47,880 这边 408 00:20:49,519 --> 00:20:52,680 美光美光盘后大暴涨啊 409 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,039 已经涨了10%了 410 00:20:55,809 --> 00:21:00,809 嗯其他的其他的上面还有一些上场的嘞 411 00:21:00,809 --> 00:21:02,849 我们看下戴尔吧 412 00:21:04,339 --> 00:21:06,140 啊戴尔今天给了阳线啊 413 00:21:06,140 --> 00:21:07,099 昨天就是阳线 414 00:21:07,099 --> 00:21:10,200 表明市场更有可能是高位震荡洗盘 415 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:11,680 而不是走熊市 416 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,400 感受到了没 417 00:21:13,450 --> 00:21:15,930 所以我们每次看这个裸头 418 00:21:15,930 --> 00:21:17,170 你就看这些K线 419 00:21:17,170 --> 00:21:18,730 空头强不强不强 420 00:21:18,730 --> 00:21:20,009 空头持续强不强 421 00:21:20,009 --> 00:21:21,480 更没有 422 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:22,279 那么这样的话 423 00:21:22,279 --> 00:21:23,920 这波回撤就是个横盘回车 424 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,930 目前看起来对吧 425 00:21:25,930 --> 00:21:27,589 你不管怎么画这些趋势线 426 00:21:27,589 --> 00:21:29,130 你就看裸图 427 00:21:29,130 --> 00:21:30,769 你就能感受到啊 428 00:21:30,769 --> 00:21:32,230 原来不想使劲砸 429 00:21:32,230 --> 00:21:33,809 不想使劲砸盘 430 00:21:33,809 --> 00:21:35,900 这样的话就没事 431 00:21:35,900 --> 00:21:37,819 这趋势线呢调不调都行啊 432 00:21:37,819 --> 00:21:39,140 因为震荡行情的时候 433 00:21:39,140 --> 00:21:42,779 趋势不是趋势线不得画是吧 434 00:21:43,420 --> 00:21:47,740 嗯台积电台积电也有这个问题哈 435 00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:51,098 呃这个英特尔对吧 436 00:21:51,098 --> 00:21:53,699 就看英特尔能不能发展起来了 437 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,019 哎呦对吧 438 00:21:55,019 --> 00:21:56,039 这个很难说啊 439 00:21:56,039 --> 00:21:57,140 在技术层面 440 00:21:57,140 --> 00:22:00,269 所以说台积电有一定的这个护城河啊 441 00:22:00,269 --> 00:22:01,670 今天是阳线 442 00:22:01,670 --> 00:22:04,410 盘后也受利好有所往上上涨 443 00:22:04,410 --> 00:22:09,220 嗯确实想画好什么感觉 444 00:22:09,779 --> 00:22:11,759 没什么感觉好嘞 445 00:22:11,759 --> 00:22:14,420 最后欢迎大家去看我们的牛股 446 00:22:14,420 --> 00:22:16,890 和最热美股的分析视频哈 447 00:22:16,890 --> 00:22:19,000 好我们明天再见
评论采集失败
采集完成，该视频无弹幕