高认知买股票，低认知买彩票

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今天我们聊一个非常现实的问题

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股票和彩票为什么把购买彩票当成发财路径

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是一种极其愚蠢的行为

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很多人说买彩票是买希望

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但更准确的说

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他是在用真实的钱

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购买一个几乎不可能兑现的幻觉

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股票和彩票表面上都有不确定性

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但本质完全不同

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股票买的是企业现金流

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产业趋势和认知优势

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彩票买的是随机号码

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极低概率和负期望

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彩票首先不是投资

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它从统计学意义上就是一个长期亏钱的游戏

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你每买一张彩票

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不是在提高自己的财富能力

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而是在把钱交给一个对你不利的概率系统

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彩票的期望值可以简单理解为

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每个奖项的奖金乘以对应中奖概率

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再减去购买彩票的成本

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如果这个结果长期为负

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那么买的越多就越接近亏钱的数学结果

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很多人误以为彩票是高风险

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高收益

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其实不是真正的高风险

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高收益

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至少要有合理的赔率补偿

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彩票的问题是绝大多数人承担了确定性亏损

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却只换来一个极低概率的幻想

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股票不同股票不是纯随机抽奖

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而是对企业盈利

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行业周期

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估值水平

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资金流向和市场情绪的综合判断

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他有风险

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但他允许你通过学习慢慢提高胜率

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股票最核心的优势叫认知杠杆

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你研究的越深

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越能避开垃圾资产

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你理解周期越好

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越能在恐慌中低吸

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你纪律越强

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越能控制回撤

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你复盘越多

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越能优化下一次交易

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一个投资者在买股票前可以研究财报

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商业模式

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竞争格局

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估值技术面

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成交量

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期权仓位和市场情绪

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他不是闭着眼睛抽号码

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而是在做一组概率判断

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当然股票不保证赚钱

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但股票的错误可以复盘系统

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可以改进仓位

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可以调整策略

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可以优化

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彩票不行

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你买错号码

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没有任何可学习的东西

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彩票最坏的地方不是亏掉几十块钱

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而是训练了一种失败者心态

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不想学习

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不想积累

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不想承担过程

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只想让命运突然奖励自己

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这种心态会让人误以为财富不是靠认知技能

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资源

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纪律和时间积累来的

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而是靠某一天突然走运来的

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问题是万一不是策略

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真正的财富积累通常很枯燥

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你要学习行业研究公司

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等待机会

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控制仓位

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忍受波动

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复盘错误

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而彩票给人的感觉很轻松

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今天不努力没关系

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万一明天中了大奖呢

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从玄学角度讲

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买彩票同样说不通

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一个真正命好的人

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可能不需要靠彩票翻身

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一个自认为命不好的人

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更不应该继续把人生压在运气上

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命不好的人最该做的事情是减少对运气的依赖

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学习投资

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提升技能

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扩大信息源

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积累本金

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提高判断力

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这些才是在改变自己的概率分布

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股票和彩票最大的差别是一个有进化路径

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一个没有进化路径

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股票投资者可以从乱买进化到看财报

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从追涨杀跌进化到理解估值

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从满仓梭哈进化到仓位管理

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一个成熟投资者会逐步建立自己的交易系统

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他会理解支撑压力

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会看成交量

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会判断趋势

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会使用止损

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会知道什么时候该买

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什么时候该卖

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什么时候

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什么都不做

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彩票玩家几乎没有进化空间

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今天买一张

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明天再买一张

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本质没有区别

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10年前靠运气

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10年后还是靠运气

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这就是两者的根本分水岭

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股票奖励长期学习者

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彩票奖励极少数幸运者

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股票市场虽然残酷

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但他至少尊重认知

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彩票市场不在乎你是谁

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也不在乎你努力与否

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更深一层看股票买的是资产

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好公司会创造产品

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产生收入

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积累利润

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分配股息

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或者通过增长推动估值重估

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彩票买的是一张纸

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背后没有生产力

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也没有现金流

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投资股票可以做风险管理

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你可以分批买入

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可以设止损

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可以用仓位控制

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可以只买优质资产

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可以等待好价格

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彩票没有风险管理

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只有中或者不中

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对成熟投资者来说

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股票市场还有很多工具

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你可以买指数

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可以买龙头

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可以卖cover call收权利金

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也可以在想接骨的位置卖

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Cash secure put

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工具越多

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前提越是需要认知和纪律

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买彩票看起来只是小钱

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但最大成本不是票价

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而是机会成本

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他让你习惯把改变命运寄托给随机事件

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而不是寄托给学习行动

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复利和资产积累

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所以彩票本质上是概率税

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它看起来门槛低

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实际上成本很高

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他不断用少数人中奖的故事

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吸引多数人持续下注

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但我们也要说清楚

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股票不是魔法

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也不是赌场里稳赢的

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一边不会学习的人冲进去追涨杀跌

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同样会亏钱

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股票之所以优于彩票

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是因为它提供了可学习

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可复盘

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可优化的路径

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所以判断一个行为是不是值得做

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要看四件事

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是否有正期望

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是否能复盘纠错

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是否能积累资产

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彩票基本全都不满足

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如果你真的想发财

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不要去买彩票

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你可以先存下本金

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学习财报研究指数基金

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研究优质公司

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研究买点和卖点

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建立自己的交易纪律

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真正想改变命运的人

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不应该去购买幻想

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而应该去拥有资产

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资产会产生现金流

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认知会产生复利

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而彩票只会产生幻觉

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最后一句话

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彩票是把钱交给运气

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股票是把钱交给认知企业和时间

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前者奖励极少数幸运者

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后者长期奖励

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愿意学习承受波动并持续优化决策的人

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