1
00:00:00,540 --> 00:00:03,560
前两天分享的视频确实有点小情绪啊
2
00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:07,059
确实被一些价值观很差的人影响了心情啊
3
00:00:07,059 --> 00:00:09,019
本来呢啊我就讲嘛
4
00:00:09,019 --> 00:00:11,740
我说我分享投资呢就5年的时间啊
5
00:00:11,740 --> 00:00:12,880
现在已经4年多了
6
00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,179
就没打算这个事呢
7
00:00:14,179 --> 00:00:16,109
一直按照过去的方式去做
8
00:00:16,109 --> 00:00:17,730
本身我是做电商的啊
9
00:00:17,730 --> 00:00:19,870
做了16年电商啊
10
00:00:19,870 --> 00:00:22,829
到现在呢啊自己有自己的家电品牌啊
11
00:00:22,829 --> 00:00:24,870
有酒茶保健品品牌啊
12
00:00:24,870 --> 00:00:26,339
海外呢还有好几个品牌
13
00:00:26,339 --> 00:00:28,379
其实呢巴菲特说过一句话啊
14
00:00:28,379 --> 00:00:29,820
就像创业一样投资
15
00:00:29,820 --> 00:00:31,219
像投资一样创业
16
00:00:31,219 --> 00:00:32,740
因为那你懂公司
17
00:00:32,740 --> 00:00:33,939
你才能拿得住啊
18
00:00:33,939 --> 00:00:35,539
你才能买到合理的价格
19
00:00:35,539 --> 00:00:37,039
你才了解这个公司的管理层
20
00:00:37,039 --> 00:00:38,348
还有没有股东回报
21
00:00:38,348 --> 00:00:40,789
所以实际上我的研究逻辑呢
22
00:00:40,789 --> 00:00:42,709
就是通过深入行业哈
23
00:00:42,709 --> 00:00:43,829
比如说我做家电的
24
00:00:43,829 --> 00:00:45,709
那我对美的九阳苏泊尔啊
25
00:00:45,709 --> 00:00:47,299
先锋格力艾美特啊
26
00:00:47,299 --> 00:00:50,329
海尔海信TCL那比较熟悉
27
00:00:50,329 --> 00:00:51,549
因为你做这么多年呢
28
00:00:51,549 --> 00:00:53,590
你对他行业非常了解啊
29
00:00:53,590 --> 00:00:55,750
对他的这个数据后面的财务数据
30
00:00:55,750 --> 00:00:57,829
后面的一些真实的经营情况啊
31
00:00:57,829 --> 00:00:58,990
能看出来啊
32
00:00:58,990 --> 00:01:00,149
再比如说保健品啊
33
00:01:00,149 --> 00:01:01,070
保健品这个行业呢
34
00:01:01,070 --> 00:01:03,588
其实我是从做IP开始啊
35
00:01:03,588 --> 00:01:04,929
我就研究这个行业
36
00:01:04,929 --> 00:01:06,349
实际上研究完之后呢
37
00:01:06,349 --> 00:01:07,429
就发现了啊
38
00:01:07,429 --> 00:01:09,469
就是跨境保健品嘛还是个增长赛道
39
00:01:09,469 --> 00:01:11,430
这也是为什么当很多兄弟说权哥啊
40
00:01:11,430 --> 00:01:12,709
能不能买买套那杯件
41
00:01:12,709 --> 00:01:13,590
我说不要碰他
42
00:01:13,590 --> 00:01:14,549
那杯件真的啊
43
00:01:14,549 --> 00:01:15,510
你可以看我所有的分享
44
00:01:15,510 --> 00:01:17,500
我都说那时候我分享创投币建的时候
45
00:01:17,500 --> 00:01:18,920
创汇价还200多个亿啊
46
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:19,700
没记错的话
47
00:01:19,700 --> 00:01:20,680
就两百三十十个亿吧
48
00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:22,969
那现在应该是很要攒了吧
49
00:01:22,969 --> 00:01:24,849
那当时我说你要是买特色配件
50
00:01:24,849 --> 00:01:26,670
你可以看一下这个建河啊
51
00:01:26,670 --> 00:01:27,890
AHA是国际控股嘛
52
00:01:27,890 --> 00:01:28,950
因为逻辑很简单嘛
53
00:01:28,950 --> 00:01:29,930
因为AHA是国际控股
54
00:01:29,930 --> 00:01:32,159
他是汤那边的两倍的销售额
55
00:01:32,159 --> 00:01:34,700
但是股价呢只有汤那边的1/3啊
56
00:01:34,700 --> 00:01:36,879
要不就是啊糖尿病院高估了啊
57
00:01:36,879 --> 00:01:38,819
要不就是建河呢低估了
58
00:01:38,819 --> 00:01:42,060
那这个逻辑你从财报简单的一算就知道
59
00:01:42,060 --> 00:01:43,099
那不可能
60
00:01:43,099 --> 00:01:44,900
那你这个差距这么大啊
61
00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:46,329
只有别人的1/3嘛
62
00:01:46,329 --> 00:01:48,170
那实际上呢最终的结果呢
63
00:01:48,170 --> 00:01:49,609
也是验证了我的观点哈
64
00:01:49,609 --> 00:01:52,010
就是我分享HH国控制的时候
65
00:01:52,010 --> 00:01:53,519
应该在11块多啊
66
00:01:53,519 --> 00:01:55,340
现在的话大概是15块左右吧
67
00:01:55,340 --> 00:01:56,400
那当然了呃
68
00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,700
国际控股呢一度跌到了十块钱左右啊
69
00:01:58,700 --> 00:02:00,049
就这个体验也不好
70
00:02:00,049 --> 00:02:01,890
但是呢整个保健品行业
71
00:02:01,890 --> 00:02:04,489
包括消费品行业呢体验都不好
72
00:02:04,489 --> 00:02:04,730
买
73
00:02:04,730 --> 00:02:06,540
AHA的国际股算是好的啊
74
00:02:06,540 --> 00:02:08,020
实际上我分享的逻辑是
75
00:02:08,020 --> 00:02:09,180
因为我从事这个行业
76
00:02:09,180 --> 00:02:12,300
我才能知道哈他的销售数据啊
77
00:02:12,300 --> 00:02:14,360
他的实际的品牌的占有率啊
78
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:15,400
产品的竞争力啊
79
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,939
包括这个赛道的啊估值啊高低啊
80
00:02:17,939 --> 00:02:21,489
啊财报的透明度就是很多东西呢别人看不到哈
81
00:02:21,489 --> 00:02:23,008
比如说负债率太高啊
82
00:02:23,008 --> 00:02:27,399
再比如说啊这个公司里面的这个啊应收账款啊
83
00:02:27,399 --> 00:02:28,959
啊包括他的营销费用啊
84
00:02:28,959 --> 00:02:30,539
啊到底哪个数据啊
85
00:02:30,539 --> 00:02:33,159
能够验证这个公司是有这种反转的可能性
86
00:02:33,159 --> 00:02:36,180
都是通过常年的做生意才能感觉到的啊
87
00:02:36,180 --> 00:02:37,099
跑了很多供应商啊
88
00:02:37,099 --> 00:02:39,990
在美国做了这几年投资哈
89
00:02:39,990 --> 00:02:43,430
哈在美国这一年呢跑了几十家保健品工厂啊
90
00:02:43,430 --> 00:02:46,209
包括啊基本上头部的那些品牌的代工厂啊
91
00:02:46,209 --> 00:02:47,370
咱都去过啊
92
00:02:47,370 --> 00:02:49,490
通过给他们工厂里的研发人员聊呢
93
00:02:49,490 --> 00:02:52,389
也知道哪些公司的产品啊是能够持续的啊
94
00:02:52,389 --> 00:02:53,650
包括政策的影响
95
00:02:53,650 --> 00:02:57,729
实际上这个呢就是巴菲特讲的像投资一样创业
96
00:02:57,729 --> 00:02:58,770
和创业一样投资
97
00:02:58,770 --> 00:03:01,550
你说如果说你脱离了一个行业
98
00:03:01,830 --> 00:03:03,689
脱离了这个公司的经营
99
00:03:03,689 --> 00:03:06,219
我们想去跟踪他其实并不容易
100
00:03:06,219 --> 00:03:07,340
因为你比如说啊
101
00:03:07,340 --> 00:03:09,000
你看我是原来步步高出来啊
102
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,539
做了十几年的手机
103
00:03:10,539 --> 00:03:13,120
再也是为什么我对小米啊分析小米的时候
104
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:14,580
我能讲到它的重点啊
105
00:03:14,580 --> 00:03:16,099
就是啊手机销量
106
00:03:16,099 --> 00:03:17,120
手机占有率啊
107
00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,520
包括这个家电的竞争格局哈
108
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:23,270
包括呢这个啊小米的这个啊资源的分配情况啊
109
00:03:23,270 --> 00:03:25,030
甚至包括我通过自己做IP呢啊
110
00:03:25,030 --> 00:03:26,250
我也能够预测出来哈
111
00:03:26,250 --> 00:03:28,669
雷老板的这个IP的最终的结局
112
00:03:28,669 --> 00:03:31,689
实际上我在两年前我分享这个小米造车的时候
113
00:03:31,689 --> 00:03:34,150
我说啊造车呢肯定是个负资产啊
114
00:03:34,150 --> 00:03:35,990
那个时候呢大家骂声一片啊
115
00:03:35,990 --> 00:03:38,610
就大家觉得你凭什么说小米是负资产嘛
116
00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:40,830
那那汽车一个几10万哈
117
00:03:40,830 --> 00:03:42,830
他对这个手机的品牌帮助很大
118
00:03:42,830 --> 00:03:44,030
然后当时我说的很直白
119
00:03:44,030 --> 00:03:47,349
我说汽车这个行业的竞争啊比手机激烈多了
120
00:03:47,349 --> 00:03:49,909
你手机现在头部的就那么几家对吧
121
00:03:49,909 --> 00:03:51,289
那全球第一的三星
122
00:03:51,289 --> 00:03:53,289
那利润第一的是苹果对吧
123
00:03:53,289 --> 00:03:55,169
然后下面有VIVOOPPO小米啊
124
00:03:55,169 --> 00:03:57,129
华为荣耀实际上就那么几家
125
00:03:57,129 --> 00:03:59,009
那传音呢其实竞争力也不强
126
00:03:59,009 --> 00:04:00,810
那如果小米豪华做手机的话
127
00:04:00,810 --> 00:04:02,569
它的估值其实比现在还要高
128
00:04:02,569 --> 00:04:04,550
但是呢你的精力一旦分散了
129
00:04:04,550 --> 00:04:06,349
因为手机也好
130
00:04:06,349 --> 00:04:07,509
家电也好啊
131
00:04:07,509 --> 00:04:08,590
然后汽车也好
132
00:04:08,590 --> 00:04:10,189
都是竞争最激烈的行业
133
00:04:10,189 --> 00:04:11,629
我们做家电出身啊
134
00:04:11,629 --> 00:04:12,509
做手机这么多年
135
00:04:12,509 --> 00:04:13,500
做数码产品
136
00:04:13,500 --> 00:04:15,379
就是非常了解这个行业的竞争程度
137
00:04:15,379 --> 00:04:17,009
因为我们自己也做品牌嘛
138
00:04:17,009 --> 00:04:18,949
基本上竞争是无孔不入的
139
00:04:18,949 --> 00:04:22,110
而且头部的品牌呢都是三五十年的沉淀
140
00:04:22,110 --> 00:04:23,548
实力非常强
141
00:04:23,548 --> 00:04:26,189
就他们通过做工厂呢又能控制品质
142
00:04:26,189 --> 00:04:27,329
又能控制成本
143
00:04:27,329 --> 00:04:30,569
其实小米在这个供应链上沉淀是远远不足的
144
00:04:30,569 --> 00:04:33,389
而且随着这个IP的热度下滑
145
00:04:33,389 --> 00:04:34,689
还有两面性哈
146
00:04:34,689 --> 00:04:36,129
比如说哎你好的时候
147
00:04:36,129 --> 00:04:38,069
大家都会说你哎牛逼啊
148
00:04:38,069 --> 00:04:38,750
雷老板牛逼
149
00:04:38,750 --> 00:04:40,750
但当你但凡是不好的时候
150
00:04:40,750 --> 00:04:42,050
你的缺点也会被放大
151
00:04:42,050 --> 00:04:44,548
所以实际上我在去年年初
152
00:04:44,548 --> 00:04:45,588
包括前年我就说过
153
00:04:45,588 --> 00:04:48,629
我说雷老板那个IP会不会反噬城里的米粉
154
00:04:48,629 --> 00:04:49,490
会变成米黑
155
00:04:49,490 --> 00:04:51,810
实际上这个事也就过了一年就就反转了
156
00:04:51,810 --> 00:04:54,050
包括我分享了很多这个消费的个股啊
157
00:04:54,050 --> 00:04:57,430
都是基于自己从业这么多年的一个深度思考
158
00:04:57,430 --> 00:04:59,790
而不是说基于打单的炒股的逻辑啊
159
00:04:59,790 --> 00:05:02,189
实际上炒股呢我不是很擅长啊
160
00:05:02,189 --> 00:05:04,660
你特别是就玩这个科技的哈
161
00:05:04,660 --> 00:05:05,439
我的逻辑很简单
162
00:05:05,439 --> 00:05:07,740
就是便宜好公司买的便宜很讲道理
163
00:05:07,740 --> 00:05:08,529
多少钱回本
164
00:05:08,529 --> 00:05:11,410
我所有的这个逻辑呢都是基于这个观点啊
165
00:05:11,410 --> 00:05:13,488
就是你你同类的公司
166
00:05:13,488 --> 00:05:15,009
我买全球最好的对吧
167
00:05:15,009 --> 00:05:16,968
比如说你啊买这个GPU啊
168
00:05:16,968 --> 00:05:19,009
那那英伟达肯定最好买手机啊
169
00:05:19,009 --> 00:05:19,769
苹果最好啊
170
00:05:19,769 --> 00:05:21,220
买这个收车引擎啊
171
00:05:21,220 --> 00:05:22,060
大模型哎
172
00:05:22,060 --> 00:05:24,019
谷歌哈综合最强对吧
173
00:05:24,019 --> 00:05:25,860
买酒哈茅台最好啊
174
00:05:25,860 --> 00:05:26,740
买中概啊
175
00:05:26,740 --> 00:05:28,550
买那腾讯啊最好啊
176
00:05:28,550 --> 00:05:30,430
拼多多呢哈哈最低估啊
177
00:05:30,430 --> 00:05:34,540
再比如说这个哈买这个硬件类的是吧
178
00:05:34,540 --> 00:05:35,680
那你就买的便宜嘛
179
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:36,639
你算算回本嘛
180
00:05:36,639 --> 00:05:37,800
那实在算不出来
181
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:39,519
那压住这个赛道的话
182
00:05:39,519 --> 00:05:40,718
就从增速啊
183
00:05:40,718 --> 00:05:42,358
包括他的这个估值方面啊
184
00:05:42,358 --> 00:05:43,278
增速最快啊
185
00:05:43,278 --> 00:05:44,358
护城河最深啊
186
00:05:44,358 --> 00:05:45,098
估值最便宜
187
00:05:45,098 --> 00:05:46,778
那你实在看不懂货币周期
188
00:05:46,778 --> 00:05:47,999
看不到这个分红的话
189
00:05:47,999 --> 00:05:49,519
那你就赌这个啊
190
00:05:49,519 --> 00:05:50,899
这个里面风险最小的嘛
191
00:05:50,899 --> 00:05:51,540
就要我说
192
00:05:51,540 --> 00:05:52,899
那你一个好公司买的便宜
193
00:05:52,899 --> 00:05:54,860
你肯定比买贵风险要小得多对吧
194
00:05:54,860 --> 00:05:56,019
你的胜率高很多
195
00:05:56,019 --> 00:05:57,579
那这个呢是概率逻辑啊
196
00:05:57,579 --> 00:05:59,918
就我们做确定性呢是回本逻辑
197
00:05:59,918 --> 00:06:01,798
那你但凡是没有那么熟的话
198
00:06:01,798 --> 00:06:02,718
你这概率对吧
199
00:06:02,718 --> 00:06:04,238
我亏的概率多高啊
200
00:06:04,238 --> 00:06:05,338
比我赢的概率80%
201
00:06:05,338 --> 00:06:06,358
那我亏了20%
202
00:06:06,358 --> 00:06:07,278
你可以尝试
203
00:06:07,278 --> 00:06:07,870
对不对
204
00:06:07,870 --> 00:06:09,509
所以呢你不想错过机会
205
00:06:09,509 --> 00:06:10,899
你就可以用这个方法嘛
206
00:06:10,899 --> 00:06:13,660
但是分享过程里面呢其实也有很多的杂音啊
207
00:06:13,660 --> 00:06:16,100
实际上这也是为什么我现在对讲个股呢
208
00:06:16,100 --> 00:06:18,230
其实是不太有兴趣对吧
209
00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:20,689
一个是自己呢确实啊收益不错啊
210
00:06:20,689 --> 00:06:24,629
第二个呢就是那总是希望有些人能够理解哈
211
00:06:24,629 --> 00:06:25,290
能听懂
212
00:06:25,290 --> 00:06:28,990
而不是说你被一个没有听懂的人天天啊干扰呀
213
00:06:28,990 --> 00:06:31,230
包括这个之前讲到新能源汽车啊
214
00:06:31,230 --> 00:06:32,529
讲到这个小米啊
215
00:06:32,529 --> 00:06:33,569
蔚来小鹏啊
216
00:06:33,569 --> 00:06:34,310
比亚迪的时候
217
00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:36,129
你看我去年讲这个赛道的时候啊
218
00:06:36,129 --> 00:06:37,129
其实我平常很多时候
219
00:06:37,129 --> 00:06:40,160
我说如果啊今年进入存量市场
220
00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,019
那就会和家电一样对吧
221
00:06:42,019 --> 00:06:43,379
就是增收不增利
222
00:06:43,379 --> 00:06:44,920
而且呢这个投入越大啊
223
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:45,649
利润越低
224
00:06:45,649 --> 00:06:47,389
实际上新能源汽车去年到现在
225
00:06:47,389 --> 00:06:49,410
新势力这些基本上都要涨两三折
226
00:06:49,410 --> 00:06:50,129
三四折
227
00:06:50,129 --> 00:06:52,589
但是在这个行业的投资人很多啊
228
00:06:52,589 --> 00:06:55,370
就是很多人就会过来啊啊羞辱啊
229
00:06:55,370 --> 00:06:55,850
辱骂呀
230
00:06:55,850 --> 00:06:57,180
然后骚扰呀
231
00:06:57,180 --> 00:06:58,779
实际上这个过程呢其实我也想过啊
232
00:06:58,779 --> 00:07:00,680
如果说哎不去分享这东西呢
233
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,120
其实呢我省心很多啊
234
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:02,560
当然了
235
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,639
你说那你要去分享啊是吧
236
00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:05,480
去得罪人
237
00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:06,680
这个也不是我的初心啊
238
00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:07,600
没有必要对吧
239
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,050
现在你很舒服的赚钱
240
00:07:09,050 --> 00:07:10,350
干嘛让自己不舒服呢
241
00:07:10,350 --> 00:07:12,560
这个也是我我想了很多事啊
242
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:13,800
就是无论是创业呀
243
00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,959
投资呀啊包括我们人生呀都一模一样对吧
244
00:07:16,959 --> 00:07:18,740
有最好的不想吃好的是吧
245
00:07:18,740 --> 00:07:19,500
能能很能赚钱
246
00:07:19,500 --> 00:07:20,740
就不要跪着赚钱是吧
247
00:07:20,740 --> 00:07:22,100
能能和好人在一块
248
00:07:22,100 --> 00:07:23,379
为什么和垃圾在一块呢是吧
249
00:07:23,379 --> 00:07:24,660
你说我们做投资的目的
250
00:07:24,660 --> 00:07:26,779
不就为了给自己塑造一个好的环境啊
251
00:07:26,779 --> 00:07:28,500
让自己躺着赚钱吗对吧
252
00:07:28,500 --> 00:07:32,529
这也是为什么我不愿意去哈讲那些对吧
253
00:07:32,529 --> 00:07:33,449
这个AI赛道啊
254
00:07:33,449 --> 00:07:36,649
包括啊但凡脱离基本面或者说无法啊
255
00:07:36,649 --> 00:07:38,110
毛估估现金流的公司
256
00:07:38,110 --> 00:07:39,269
我都不敢去讲
257
00:07:39,269 --> 00:07:41,790
因为这个东西呢你你赌概率哈
258
00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:42,470
你赌趋势
259
00:07:42,470 --> 00:07:43,290
你赌情绪
260
00:07:43,290 --> 00:07:44,500
你还是在赌
261
00:07:44,500 --> 00:07:47,220
而不是说真的是你懂懂的话是什么呢
262
00:07:47,220 --> 00:07:47,699
就是跌了
263
00:07:47,699 --> 00:07:49,060
你开心呀对吧
264
00:07:49,060 --> 00:07:49,660
你其实来讲
265
00:07:49,660 --> 00:07:51,790
你看这几年很多好公司啊
266
00:07:51,790 --> 00:07:52,810
实际上被错杀
267
00:07:52,810 --> 00:07:54,529
但跌的时候其实很开心的加仓
268
00:07:54,529 --> 00:07:55,389
没有慌过
269
00:07:55,389 --> 00:07:56,610
那唯一的是什么呢
270
00:07:56,610 --> 00:07:59,009
就是这个行业的模型变掉了是吧
271
00:07:59,009 --> 00:08:01,649
那你像中概似的确确实实太有影响了
272
00:08:01,649 --> 00:08:03,430
比如说那确实是啊
273
00:08:03,430 --> 00:08:05,769
那那这些啊精米面出问题了哈
274
00:08:05,769 --> 00:08:07,290
你要美团阿里竞争的时候
275
00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:08,629
那精品面确实出问题了
276
00:08:08,629 --> 00:08:09,089
对不对
277
00:08:09,089 --> 00:08:10,350
那再比如说那拼多多
278
00:08:10,350 --> 00:08:12,509
他在这个啊在出海的过程里面
279
00:08:12,509 --> 00:08:15,079
那确实是受到这个政策影响很大对吧
280
00:08:15,079 --> 00:08:16,899
你的你的出坏啊
281
00:08:16,899 --> 00:08:17,899
影响越来越大啊
282
00:08:17,899 --> 00:08:20,779
包括你的这个啊这个竞争格局啊
283
00:08:20,779 --> 00:08:21,500
压力越来越大啊
284
00:08:21,500 --> 00:08:23,420
包括这个啊税务合规啊
285
00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:27,629
包括这些啊商家的这种广告费支出啊越来越大
286
00:08:27,629 --> 00:08:29,329
那这个时候呢你会思考一下
287
00:08:29,329 --> 00:08:31,240
就是你要不要调整一下仓位啊
288
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:32,820
调整一下原来的这个策略啊
289
00:08:32,820 --> 00:08:34,580
这个事情也是要考虑的哈
290
00:08:34,580 --> 00:08:38,690
因为任何公司他都要经历这个兴衰啊
291
00:08:38,690 --> 00:08:39,470
起伏啊
292
00:08:39,470 --> 00:08:41,230
你不可能不去琢磨
293
00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:43,679
说哎我这个逻辑有没有变是吧
294
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:44,759
如果变的话
295
00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:45,980
我该怎么调整
296
00:08:45,980 --> 00:08:47,759
但是呢万变不离其宗哈
297
00:08:47,759 --> 00:08:49,960
你所有的这个投资的决策呢
298
00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,240
还是要回到他的基本面哈
299
00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:53,519
继续回到他的行业估值哈
300
00:08:53,519 --> 00:08:54,700
回到他的股东回报率
301
00:08:54,700 --> 00:08:57,889
这个呢是从来不会变的一个东西啊
302
00:08:57,889 --> 00:08:58,529
啊当然了
303
00:08:58,529 --> 00:09:00,070
你说哈分享这么多
304
00:09:00,070 --> 00:09:01,289
我最开心的是什么呢
305
00:09:01,289 --> 00:09:03,330
就是很多兄弟能听懂啊
306
00:09:03,330 --> 00:09:04,049
很认可
307
00:09:04,049 --> 00:09:08,370
但为什么我说以后呢啊这种高收益的打法呢
308
00:09:08,370 --> 00:09:11,070
我也不可能说像过去那么去讲哈
309
00:09:11,070 --> 00:09:13,090
这个东西呢确确实实风险太大了
310
00:09:13,090 --> 00:09:15,828
而且呢你去用心的讲的时候呢
311
00:09:15,828 --> 00:09:17,308
他听不懂人呢
312
00:09:17,308 --> 00:09:19,928
他反而呢会过来哈找麻烦
313
00:09:19,928 --> 00:09:21,849
因为你没必要做那种粗理不套的事
314
00:09:21,849 --> 00:09:24,899
所以我未来呃最多呢也就讲讲思路哈
315
00:09:24,899 --> 00:09:25,759
讲讲思路啊
316
00:09:25,759 --> 00:09:27,480
讲讲这个观点呐
317
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,980
哈讲讲这个行业的分析啊
318
00:09:29,980 --> 00:09:32,830
个股的话肯定会养的越来越少是吧
319
00:09:32,830 --> 00:09:36,909
然后呢这个也就给一些哈哈同道中人是吧
320
00:09:36,909 --> 00:09:39,169
就分享我的一些个人的思考啊
321
00:09:39,169 --> 00:09:41,149
尖锐一点的也只能给那些懂的人讲
322
00:09:41,149 --> 00:09:42,629
因为大部分人实实来讲哈
323
00:09:42,629 --> 00:09:45,440
我我就觉得哈我们目前的竞争格局啊
324
00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:47,240
实话实说非常的恶劣
325
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:48,879
实际上所有的公司啊
326
00:09:48,879 --> 00:09:50,500
我每天收到几百个留言啊
327
00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,940
哈有买了这个做海骨的哈
328
00:09:52,940 --> 00:09:53,779
石头歌技呀
329
00:09:53,779 --> 00:09:55,750
科沃诗呀对吧啊
330
00:09:55,750 --> 00:09:57,909
包括这个买了出海电力的啊
331
00:09:57,909 --> 00:09:59,070
买了出海的消费品的
332
00:09:59,070 --> 00:10:00,480
买了化妆品保健品
333
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,299
买了这些医医美的
334
00:10:02,299 --> 00:10:03,720
很多人找我说
335
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,759
你权哥怎么样估值呢
336
00:10:05,759 --> 00:10:07,250
这个公司到底怎么了呢
337
00:10:07,250 --> 00:10:09,529
实际上不一定这个公式有问题
338
00:10:09,529 --> 00:10:11,570
各位很多时候竞争过度啊
339
00:10:11,570 --> 00:10:12,730
比如咱随便说一个案例吧
340
00:10:12,730 --> 00:10:14,559
啊比如说小家电啊
341
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,519
小家电最近老有兄弟留言说
342
00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:18,129
问我这个石头科技怎么回事
343
00:10:18,129 --> 00:10:20,289
其实石头科技这些公司呢
344
00:10:20,289 --> 00:10:22,610
他还真的不完全是基本面出问题
345
00:10:22,610 --> 00:10:24,289
就就是卷的太严重哈
346
00:10:24,289 --> 00:10:25,990
第二个就出身不好对吧
347
00:10:25,990 --> 00:10:27,269
同样做这个啊
348
00:10:27,269 --> 00:10:28,269
这个吸尘器的哈
349
00:10:28,269 --> 00:10:29,659
做炸锅的呃
350
00:10:29,659 --> 00:10:30,580
沙特赢家啊
351
00:10:30,580 --> 00:10:31,860
估值的话29倍啊
352
00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:34,360
市值的话一百七八十亿美金对吧
353
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:35,860
那创始人不是收购方
354
00:10:35,860 --> 00:10:36,820
还是人家王旭宁
355
00:10:36,820 --> 00:10:37,750
九阳的创始人
356
00:10:37,750 --> 00:10:38,750
同一个老板啊
357
00:10:38,750 --> 00:10:42,609
那九阳过去的啊是35年跌了八九十%
358
00:10:45,188 --> 00:10:46,288
那同样一个老板呢
359
00:10:46,288 --> 00:10:47,328
如果说做国内的话
360
00:10:47,328 --> 00:10:50,350
可能身价从百亿富豪变成了啊10亿富豪
361
00:10:50,350 --> 00:10:52,169
但是呢因为做了沙特赢家哈
362
00:10:52,169 --> 00:10:55,779
从这个啊几10亿变成了啊七八百亿
363
00:10:55,779 --> 00:10:59,379
所以你说王旭宁人还是那个人是吧
364
00:10:59,379 --> 00:11:00,799
然后供应链还在供应链哈
365
00:11:00,799 --> 00:11:03,049
然后那个啊逻辑和那个逻辑
366
00:11:03,049 --> 00:11:05,299
那为什么这个身价就翻了几十倍呢
367
00:11:05,299 --> 00:11:07,639
本质上来讲他肯定不是企业经营的问题
368
00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:09,100
也是我们可以严格来讲
369
00:11:09,100 --> 00:11:11,340
这个商业模式哈也没有什么变化
370
00:11:11,340 --> 00:11:12,980
然后呢这个老板没什么变化
371
00:11:12,980 --> 00:11:15,409
然后呢这个啊行业的竞争加剧了
372
00:11:15,409 --> 00:11:18,429
但是呢估值的根本在于说第一个你的出身
373
00:11:18,429 --> 00:11:21,519
因为你出在竞争最激烈的国内这个市场啊
374
00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:23,188
无论是科老师啊
375
00:11:23,188 --> 00:11:25,408
追觅哈还是石头科技还是9号
376
00:11:25,408 --> 00:11:27,229
还有一众这个其他的全封之类的
377
00:11:27,229 --> 00:11:28,028
都在跟你竞争
378
00:11:28,028 --> 00:11:30,539
那第二个呢就是你做线上渠道呢
379
00:11:30,539 --> 00:11:31,820
会面临这个问题啊
380
00:11:34,299 --> 00:11:35,639
无论是COSPO2维码
381
00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:37,940
在美国本土呢啊做的很强势
382
00:11:37,940 --> 00:11:40,720
反而呢是因为他线下呢受影响受的小
383
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,340
反而呢线上呢像像亚马逊呐
384
00:11:43,340 --> 00:11:45,809
像这些平台呢对商家影响很大
385
00:11:45,809 --> 00:11:48,289
所以呢你在买入这些出海品牌的时候
386
00:11:48,289 --> 00:11:50,210
你除了考虑它的销售额增速以外
387
00:11:50,210 --> 00:11:54,309
你还要看他的线下的覆盖率和线下的占比
388
00:11:54,309 --> 00:11:56,690
实际上现在的消费品估值啊
389
00:11:56,690 --> 00:11:58,190
线下比线上重要
390
00:11:58,190 --> 00:11:59,549
哎你线上卖的越好
391
00:11:59,549 --> 00:12:00,669
你反而你的估值会越低
392
00:12:00,669 --> 00:12:02,009
因为你是波动太大了
393
00:12:02,009 --> 00:12:03,629
你反而线下占比越高呢
394
00:12:03,629 --> 00:12:04,490
你的估值会越高
395
00:12:04,490 --> 00:12:06,090
因为你稳定哈
396
00:12:06,090 --> 00:12:08,909
然后呢这个消费者心智更强
397
00:12:08,909 --> 00:12:10,929
然后呢没有那么的卷
398
00:12:10,929 --> 00:12:14,950
所以你要从这个渠道角度来讲哈
399
00:12:14,950 --> 00:12:17,509
就是我们讲的这个波特五力模型是吧
400
00:12:17,509 --> 00:12:19,450
然后你要做一个全面的分析
401
00:12:19,450 --> 00:12:21,289
那这就是做消费品的话
402
00:12:21,289 --> 00:12:22,850
实际大家你要去研究哈
403
00:12:22,850 --> 00:12:24,269
你要懂行啊
404
00:12:24,269 --> 00:12:27,110
你还要去从全球不同的视角去看待
405
00:12:27,110 --> 00:12:28,149
这个消费品的估值
406
00:12:28,149 --> 00:12:30,389
所以这个呢也是做投资的时候
407
00:12:30,389 --> 00:12:32,649
一个非常重要的思考纬度啊
408
00:12:32,649 --> 00:12:34,350
当然了你要买科技啊
409
00:12:34,350 --> 00:12:37,370
这个东西呢啊我们也是啊重投了美股科技嘛
410
00:12:37,370 --> 00:12:39,269
你说这个呢也赚了很多钱嘛
411
00:12:39,269 --> 00:12:40,649
但是我们的逻辑很简单啊
412
00:12:40,649 --> 00:12:42,210
所以沪通河深啊
413
00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:43,429
呃买谁哈
414
00:12:43,429 --> 00:12:45,450
第二个呢就是跌的狠的时候哈
415
00:12:45,450 --> 00:12:46,529
就巴菲特说到啊
416
00:12:46,529 --> 00:12:49,409
那哈这个天上掉掉金子的时候
417
00:12:49,409 --> 00:12:50,570
拿盆来接嘛啊
418
00:12:50,570 --> 00:12:52,129
平时基本上不怎么操作啊
419
00:12:52,129 --> 00:12:53,309
再加点清权策略
420
00:12:53,309 --> 00:12:54,850
就整个逻辑非常简单
421
00:12:54,850 --> 00:12:56,469
还非常舒服啊
422
00:12:56,469 --> 00:12:57,188
讲了那么多呢
423
00:12:57,188 --> 00:13:00,028
就是感谢这么多兄弟呢支持啊
424
00:13:00,749 --> 00:13:03,559
特别是每日看我这个情绪不好啊
425
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,860
被人攻击的时候都站出来哈
426
00:13:05,860 --> 00:13:07,460
为我为我证明啊
427
00:13:07,460 --> 00:13:08,820
为我这个加油的兄弟啊
428
00:13:08,820 --> 00:13:09,299
是非常感谢
429
00:13:09,299 --> 00:13:10,080
非常感谢真的
430
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:11,940
其实来讲分享投资的乐趣也在这个地方
431
00:13:11,940 --> 00:13:13,620
就是你说哈
432
00:13:13,620 --> 00:13:14,460
你说你分享啊
433
00:13:14,460 --> 00:13:15,740
你图什么嘛对吧
434
00:13:15,740 --> 00:13:17,200
没什么赚钱也可以啊
435
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:18,379
还有很多兄弟说强哥
436
00:13:18,379 --> 00:13:19,539
你这个就是为了带货
437
00:13:19,539 --> 00:13:24,100
哎你说做电商的谁不想打品牌对吧
438
00:13:24,100 --> 00:13:27,000
做电商的哪个人不希望免费流量对吧
439
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,240
做电商的哪个人不被平台深深的捆绑对吧
440
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,360
你你说做化妆品保健品的那些人
441
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:33,740
哪个人不拿60%的
442
00:13:33,740 --> 00:13:36,099
到70的营销费用去投流
443
00:13:36,099 --> 00:13:37,379
但是你你有IP
444
00:13:37,379 --> 00:13:38,698
有免费的流量
445
00:13:38,698 --> 00:13:41,359
你比别人节省五六十%的营销费用呀
446
00:13:41,359 --> 00:13:45,200
那这个东西从从这个创业者角度那做
447
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,480
做内容是最好的渠道
448
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,299
但是这个过程呢还能帮助一些人
449
00:13:48,299 --> 00:13:49,240
还能自己赚钱
450
00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:50,129
何乐而不为呢
451
00:13:50,129 --> 00:13:52,169
所以这是一个一箭三雕的事
452
00:13:52,169 --> 00:13:53,529
没有什么坏处啊
453
00:13:53,529 --> 00:13:53,769
当然了
454
00:13:53,769 --> 00:13:55,830
我建议大家都可以去做电商的兄弟
455
00:13:55,830 --> 00:13:57,370
都可以考虑一下做IP啊
456
00:13:57,370 --> 00:14:00,009
都可以通过IP给自己的品牌引流啊
457
00:14:00,009 --> 00:14:00,769
多好的渠道啊
458
00:14:00,769 --> 00:14:01,519
对不对
459
00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:03,919
唉所以呢讲了很多很感谢啊
460
00:14:03,919 --> 00:14:05,860
以后呢更多的分享逻辑啊
461
00:14:05,860 --> 00:14:08,320
尽量的减少个股的分析啊
462
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,440
减少干扰啊