【NaNa说美股】20260706又给美股打鸡血了

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是7月6号

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周一资金过节归来

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重新回流高贝塔成长板块

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美股整体交丑重新恢复了活跃

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AI硬件情绪更是明显回暖

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三大股指全线收涨

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半导体AI硬件

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金融以及大科技呢

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成为推动指数上行的主要力量

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川普今天在推原型

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这个办公室内

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为纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克敲钟

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高调表示

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美股即将迎来新一轮大涨

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并且鼓励美国家庭继续投资

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不要急于套现离场哈

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虽然这种讲话更多属于政治宣传了

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但是在当前这个市场本就处于乐观氛围之下呢

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也确实起到了情绪放大器的作用

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作为AI交易情绪风向标的费城半导体指数

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今天反弹了2.17%

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上周meta卖算力的风波影响正在逐渐的消退

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市场呢重新开始关注AI资本开支长期增长逻辑

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但是技术面上

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非曼指数目前仍运行在多条短期均线下方

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短线虽然开始修复哈

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但是还不能说全面转强

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暂时咱们以技术性修复来看待

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至于后面能不能够演变为趋势反转呢

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还有待观察

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全天成交量相比上周明显缩减哈

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导致今天盘中涨势呢失去了动力

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一些逢低资金重新开始布局AI硬件了

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但是真正要重新恢复强势

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还是需要指数重新站稳短期均线

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并且突破前高压力区

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明天周二

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三星电子将公布财报

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华尔街预计

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公司季度利润将会实现551亿美元哈

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达到去年同期的18倍

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这个数字太炸裂了

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将会进一步确认HBM存储需求依旧强劲

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并且提振这个存储板块的情绪

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而届时我们可能看到更大金额的资金重新流入

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看涨

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从从估值来看

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目前呢非办指数远期市盈率大约为26倍

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高于它自己过去10年平均值的约19倍

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也接近2024年创下约30倍的历史高位

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嗯相比之下

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目前纳值100元期市盈率约为23倍

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标普500呢约20倍

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因此整个半导体板块的估值依然是偏贵的

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不过真真正的问题并不是板块整体

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而是它内部的估值严重分化

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比如像那个软银旗下的arm

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远期市盈率超过140倍

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英特尔呢大约100倍

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市场给予他们极高的成长溢价

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而像那个龙头英伟达远期市盈率却只有19

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被海已经跌到2018年以来的最低水平

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也远低于过去10年约36倍的平均

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这个估值嗯

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像美观科技它的远期市盈率也是很低的

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不同的这个周期属性

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市场给予的估值体系也完全不同

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标普500指数今天呢沿着5日均线继续走高

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再次向7600点整数关口发起挑战

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今年每一次盘中回踩

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都能看到被资金迅速的承接

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目前整个美股市场正处于近两年来少见的平静

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窗口

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还没有宏观大雷呃

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交易员们呢都在度假或者是在看球赛

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市场成交量相对温和

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这反而有利于指数在低波动环境中缓慢创新高

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因为当这个波动低的时候呢

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就相当于呃市场处于逢低买入的一个环境哈

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然而指数表面是很平静啦

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但是市场内部却在经历剧烈的风格轮动

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由于近期成长股高贝塔

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还有价值股之间风格切换的比翻书还要快哈

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而且就反复的这个切换

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让那些依赖趋势交易的量化基金

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遭遇了自2023年以来最大的回撤

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标普多空动量

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这个策略指数呢已经连续两周下跌

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超过3%

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创下3年来最大跌幅

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同时不少基本面型的对冲基金

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也因为主动降低杠杆

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导致科技板块成为过去一周

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资金流出最明显的行业之一

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这也解释了为什么近期啊有很多的AI股票

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虽然公司基本面没有发生什么变化

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比如像存储板块对吧

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它还是非常的这个供应紧缺

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但是呢股价出现频繁的大涨大跌

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因为当前这个AI板块的波动率

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甚至已经超过了当年的互联网泡沫时期了

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这让那些嗯风险价值模型管理资金

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以及追涨杀跌的散户

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都被迫不断的止盈或者止损

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有的时候节奏踩过队就两头挨打

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反正就导致这个市场短线波动的进一步放大

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所以咱们看QQ哈

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都已经失去了方向

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两个月来呢一直宽幅震荡

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来回的拉扯

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随着Q2财报季正式临近

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市场焦点也开始逐渐从宏观转向企业盈利

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目前市场以至于其标普500企业

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Q2盈利同比将会增长大约25%

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非常的乐观

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其中半导体与能源行业

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预计贡献接近一半的增长

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德银是最乐观的哈

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认为盈利增速有机会达到29%以上

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这个当下美国经济呢依旧保持任性

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而AI资本开支持续扩张

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是支撑这个美股企业盈利走强的重要推动力量

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只要企业盈利增速一直的这个提高上调

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那就没有问题

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现在估值是不能扩张

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只能靠盈利来扩张了

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与此同时

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国际油价继续走弱

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随着中东原油出口迅速速的恢复

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市场交易逻辑已经从此前的供应紧张

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转向未来供给过剩担忧了

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沙特啊

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今天宣布

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再次下调了面向亚洲市场的官方原有售价

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不过另一边哈

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10年期美债收益率很奇怪

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依然牢牢维持在4.5%附近

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始终没有明显的回落

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这个高利率环境仍然限制着成长股的估值

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进一步扩张哈

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QQ之所以没有一直走高

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这可能也是最大的原因嗯

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个股与板块方面

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今天盘前最大的新闻就是科技圈自媒体生命

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analysis在X平台上连发了六条推文

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言之凿凿的称英伟达下一代AI计算架构呃

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那个开宝由于PCB中版制造难度过高

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将推迟到2028年推出

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并表示呢这将导致rubin ultra出现产品空档

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AAMD和谷歌将迎来逆袭良机哈

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可以有更多的这个追赶的时间

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消息公布之后

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股价就集体重挫了

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而呢借此东风

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再加上高盛唱多助攻

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将目标价从450美元

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一下子提高到了640美元

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股价今天原地起飞

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盘中一度暴涨超过10%

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而在英伟达否认了

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关于这个产品延期的传闻之后

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AAMD涨幅虽然有所回落

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但最终仍然收涨6.6%

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从资金流向来看

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大量短线资金借助消息快速切换到AMD

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进行事件驱动交易

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属于典型的事件催化型的放量上涨

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而相比之下呢

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英伟达嘿这个衰仔哈再次成为视察呃

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情绪的宣泄对象

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过去几年

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从那个information到simi analysis

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各种关于供应链小作文产品延期的消息

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那是层出不穷啊

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虽然公司第一时间回应称

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产品路线图没有受到任何影响

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一切按计划推进

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但是股价全天依旧跟吃了苍蝇一样的

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平淡加恶心

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这种小作文吧其实屡见不鲜

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市场上也并非说真的相信这些传闻啦

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嗯而是在这个股价连续几年大涨之后

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市场对于任何可能影响未来增长预期的消息

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都变得异常的敏感

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即便只是未经证实的供应链传闻哈

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也足以让部分资金选择观望

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股价今天全天都围绕均价线反复的这个震荡

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既没有出现明显的恐慌性抛售

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也没有看到强力资金主动拉升

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这说明机构目前仍处于

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等待更多基本面验证的阶段哈

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呃其实说实话

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华尔街早就已经不把这个英伟达

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当成AI印钞机来看待

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而是当成了整体AI板块的宏观对冲工具

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就像那个甲骨文一样

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越来越多的资金呢采取做多AI半导体

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做空英伟达的配对交易模式

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用英伟达来对冲整个AI板块风险

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毕竟因为它盘子够大

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波动的也相对稳定

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不容易出现那种震惊的逼空行情哈

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拿来当盾牌最合适

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这个够厚

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而一些中小AI公司呢更容易受到资金的追捧

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一旦逼空了

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非常恐怖

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嗯而且那个老黄高调说好的1000亿美元的回购

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也完全看不到任何动静哈

212
00:09:46,759 --> 00:09:49,919
不知道是不是想等到股价跌到165美元

213
00:09:49,919 --> 00:09:51,289
才出手回购呢

214
00:09:51,289 --> 00:09:54,490
博通今天是AI硬件板块的另一大亮点

215
00:09:54,490 --> 00:09:58,078
公司宣布与苹果续签长期合作协议

216
00:09:58,078 --> 00:10:00,399
股价盘出一度上涨约6%

217
00:10:00,399 --> 00:10:04,110
不过呢在初级月线附近的压力后逐渐回落

218
00:10:04,110 --> 00:10:05,570
最终涨幅收窄

219
00:10:05,570 --> 00:10:09,169
月均线附近聚集了大量的前期套牢筹码

220
00:10:09,169 --> 00:10:12,169
所以这个短线回落也比较正常嗯

221
00:10:12,169 --> 00:10:14,409
根据提交给sec的文件哈

222
00:10:14,409 --> 00:10:16,409
宝通将继续与苹果合作

223
00:10:16,409 --> 00:10:17,809
到2031年

224
00:10:17,809 --> 00:10:22,899
为苹果未来多个产品平台呢开发定制嗯

225
00:10:22,899 --> 00:10:23,720
AI芯片

226
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,379
这意味着苹果未来自研AI芯片战略

227
00:10:26,379 --> 00:10:28,320
依然是高度依赖于博通

228
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:36,440
算力租赁板块在上经历了上周集体暴跌之后啊

229
00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,409
今天迎来了明显的修复

230
00:10:38,409 --> 00:10:40,950
像LRE呢大涨了13%

231
00:10:40,950 --> 00:10:44,820
主要因为ENTROPIC正在寻求至少1.4G瓦

232
00:10:44,820 --> 00:10:46,659
澳洲数据中心容量

233
00:10:46,659 --> 00:10:50,000
而这个IRE呢被列入潜在的合作名单

234
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:51,399
消息刺激之下哈

235
00:10:51,399 --> 00:10:52,980
大量资金重新回流

236
00:10:52,980 --> 00:10:55,960
此前跌幅较大的AI基础设施板块

237
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,440
属于典型的超跌反弹走势

238
00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,700
可能也有部分空头回补的原因

239
00:11:00,700 --> 00:11:03,100
cove今天上涨了5.8%

240
00:11:03,100 --> 00:11:05,299
反弹力度虽然不及ARE

241
00:11:05,299 --> 00:11:08,440
但是呢技术形态出现了一定的改善

242
00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,799
这是股价上你就跌破了这个通道下沿之后

243
00:11:11,799 --> 00:11:14,840
今天立即重新站回到通道内部

244
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:16,720
如果未来几天能够站稳

245
00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:17,659
不再跌破

246
00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:22,379
那或许有机会复制前面那几轮这个反弹走势

247
00:11:22,379 --> 00:11:24,299
往通道上沿冲击

248
00:11:24,299 --> 00:11:25,039
反之

249
00:11:25,039 --> 00:11:28,389
要是一再一次跌破这个通道下沿

250
00:11:28,389 --> 00:11:31,470
那意味着中期趋势的真正转弱了哈

251
00:11:31,470 --> 00:11:32,529
要完犊子了

252
00:11:32,529 --> 00:11:35,009
股价要加速下行嗯

253
00:11:35,009 --> 00:11:38,129
存储板块今年整体属于弱修复

254
00:11:38,129 --> 00:11:41,200
因为美观科技这个龙头虽然收窄

255
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,179
但是反弹力度呢明显落后于多数AI硬件股票

256
00:11:45,179 --> 00:11:47,580
SNDK表现同样偏弱

257
00:11:47,580 --> 00:11:49,509
这长得有气无力的

258
00:11:49,509 --> 00:11:55,340
而希捷STX西部数据WDC涨幅就相对更好呃

259
00:11:55,340 --> 00:11:58,899
可能有部分机构正在兑现此前涨幅最大的

260
00:11:58,899 --> 00:12:00,840
这个美观与SMDK的利润

261
00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,999
将资金呢暂时切换到其他存储或设备公司等

262
00:12:04,999 --> 00:12:09,019
这个周五韩国的SK海力士登陆美股后新机会哈

263
00:12:09,019 --> 00:12:10,480
不过目前来看

264
00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,899
这种资金轮动是更偏短期的

265
00:12:13,899 --> 00:12:16,679
并没有改变整个HBM产业链

266
00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,789
供需紧张的大逻辑

267
00:12:18,789 --> 00:12:20,870
市场呢现在密切关注

268
00:12:20,870 --> 00:12:24,129
明天周二三星电子即将公布的季度财报

269
00:12:24,129 --> 00:12:28,419
投资者希望通过三星管理层对于HBM的展望

270
00:12:28,419 --> 00:12:33,470
进一步验证这个AI存储需求是否仍在持续扩张

271
00:12:33,470 --> 00:12:36,809
目前全球存储行业最大的核心矛盾

272
00:12:36,809 --> 00:12:39,240
仍然是供应严重短缺

273
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:43,159
而AI驱动的结构性需求增长呢远未结束哈

274
00:12:43,159 --> 00:12:47,000
只要这个逻辑没有发生根本性的变化

275
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,460
那么整个存储板块中长期的紧气度

276
00:12:50,460 --> 00:12:51,919
依然是值得期待的

277
00:12:51,919 --> 00:12:55,120
所以不用担心这个呃美观与SNDK啦

278
00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,960
只是短线的这个资金流问题而已

279
00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,200
与此同时

280
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,419
SK海力士招股说明书

281
00:13:01,419 --> 00:13:04,519
再次带动半导体设备板块上涨

282
00:13:04,519 --> 00:13:06,679
卖今天涨了3.15%

283
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:07,960
海力士表示

284
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,090
本次的呃募资

285
00:13:10,090 --> 00:13:14,590
主要用于韩国扩产以及采购这个极紫外光刻机

286
00:13:14,590 --> 00:13:18,909
并且计划呢于2027年底前陆续完成交付

287
00:13:18,909 --> 00:13:22,470
虽然扩产计划早在今年3月底就已经提出了

288
00:13:22,470 --> 00:13:25,320
但是随着他的PO融资即将完成

289
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:26,659
市场重新交易

290
00:13:26,659 --> 00:13:28,620
这个长期资本开支逻辑

291
00:13:28,620 --> 00:13:32,539
那作为全球唯一能够量产极紫外光科技的厂商

292
00:13:32,539 --> 00:13:32,899
阿斯麦

293
00:13:32,899 --> 00:13:34,960
当然也就也成为SK海力士

294
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,600
美股上市带来的这一波看涨情绪

295
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,240
重要的受益对象

296
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,879
特斯拉今天股价强势反弹了6.7%

297
00:13:42,879 --> 00:13:46,700
公司宣布欧布taxi正式扩展到迈阿密

298
00:13:46,700 --> 00:13:50,320
这个是它的自动驾驶出租车业务

299
00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:51,720
落地的第五座城市

300
00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,048
不过这个其实无所谓哈

301
00:13:54,048 --> 00:13:55,960
因为今天股价暴涨

302
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:57,139
真正的原因就是

303
00:13:57,139 --> 00:14:01,059
上周公司披露Q2交付数据大幅超出市场预期

304
00:14:01,059 --> 00:14:03,259
股价呢却反而遭遇了大跌

305
00:14:03,259 --> 00:14:06,480
其实大量的这个短期呃

306
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,100
期权多头被恶意收割了哈

307
00:14:09,100 --> 00:14:12,269
所以呃那一批韭菜们收割完了

308
00:14:12,269 --> 00:14:14,429
今天资金就重新回补仓位

309
00:14:14,429 --> 00:14:17,629
再加上技术面触及重要支撑区域后呢

310
00:14:17,629 --> 00:14:19,009
形成超跌反弹

311
00:14:19,009 --> 00:14:22,009
所以就出现这个力度比较大的修复行情

312
00:14:22,009 --> 00:14:23,999
从从成交结构来看

313
00:14:23,999 --> 00:14:26,379
盘中主动买盘持续占优

314
00:14:26,379 --> 00:14:29,359
属于典型的资金回流走势

315
00:14:29,359 --> 00:14:31,539
不愧是华尔街大赌场

316
00:14:31,539 --> 00:14:33,879
太空概念股今天多数走弱

317
00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:36,860
space x明天周二即将加入纳市100了

318
00:14:36,860 --> 00:14:38,799
股价日内呢却高开低走

319
00:14:38,799 --> 00:14:42,980
从盘初涨3%变成盘中跌4%

320
00:14:42,980 --> 00:14:46,919
尾盘最后半小时才重新出现了资金抢筹

321
00:14:46,919 --> 00:14:49,639
把跌幅呢收窄到不足1%

322
00:14:49,639 --> 00:14:51,960
纳入指数带来的被动资金买盘

323
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:53,879
已经被市场提前交易了

324
00:14:53,879 --> 00:14:55,879
同时市场也开始提前消化

325
00:14:55,879 --> 00:14:59,419
未来几个月逐步到来的限售股解禁压力

326
00:14:59,419 --> 00:15:01,340
根据目前的披露安排

327
00:15:01,340 --> 00:15:04,899
space x预计将在7月底到8月初

328
00:15:04,899 --> 00:15:06,620
公布第二季度财报

329
00:15:06,620 --> 00:15:10,120
届时普通员工以及早期机构投资者呢

330
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,779
将会迎来首批大约20%的股份解禁

331
00:15:13,779 --> 00:15:18,340
随后8月到10月份还将分阶段继续释放股份

332
00:15:18,340 --> 00:15:21,970
直到这个年底完成全部普通股东解禁

333
00:15:21,970 --> 00:15:25,529
而马斯克本人以及核心大股东们呢

334
00:15:25,529 --> 00:15:28,740
统一试用366天锁定期呃

335
00:15:28,740 --> 00:15:32,089
就需要等到明年的6月才能够解除限售

336
00:15:32,089 --> 00:15:32,989
综合来看

337
00:15:32,989 --> 00:15:34,989
今年7月底开始

338
00:15:34,989 --> 00:15:38,480
SPACEX可流通股份的将会明显的增加

339
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:42,730
那短期供给压力可能会对股价形成一定的压制

340
00:15:42,730 --> 00:15:45,649
而马斯克本人超长的锁定期呢

341
00:15:45,649 --> 00:15:48,269
又在一定程度上缓解了市场

342
00:15:48,269 --> 00:15:50,919
对于创始人大规模检测担忧

343
00:15:51,500 --> 00:15:56,078
这股票这家公司很想象力空间的确很大

344
00:15:56,078 --> 00:15:57,499
在他所处的赛道中呢

345
00:15:57,499 --> 00:15:59,240
那也是遥遥领先

346
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,940
但是目前仍然是一只高估值

347
00:16:01,940 --> 00:16:04,440
高波动的热门交易品种哈

348
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:05,480
和特斯拉一样

349
00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:08,139
他就是华尔街2号赌场嘛

350
00:16:08,139 --> 00:16:10,360
行今天我们就说到这里吧

351
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,820
那明天就等三星的财报

352
00:16:13,820 --> 00:16:16,860
引爆整个韩国以及美股市场

353
00:16:16,860 --> 00:16:17,700
当然是好的

354
00:16:17,700 --> 00:16:18,740
那个引爆呃

355
00:16:18,740 --> 00:16:20,899
我们明天见拜拜

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