新手投资，从哪里开始学习

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很多新手问我投资到底应该从哪里开始学

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有人问怎么看财报

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有人问怎么管理仓位

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也有人问K线

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均线支撑位

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压力位

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期权量化交易到底哪个最重要

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我的答案是这些都重要

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但都不是第一步

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真正的第一步是

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先搞清楚你到底想通过什么方式从市场赚钱

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投资不是一个单一技能

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而是一套赚钱系统

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不同的人用不同的方法赚钱

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不同的方法需要学习完全不同的知识

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不同的知识又对应完全不同的风险

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如果你没有先想清楚赚钱方法

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就会今天学财报

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明天学K线

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后天学期权

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看起来很努力

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最后却没有系统

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所以今天这期视频不先讲怎么看财报

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也不先讲怎么控制仓位

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我们先讲一个更底层的问题

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普通人进入股市主要有哪几种赚钱方式

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我把它简单分成三类

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赚时代发展的大事

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赚别人恐惧的保险费

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参与短期波动的概率游戏

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这三种方式没有绝对的好坏

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但他们适合的人完全不同

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选错了路线

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再努力也可能事倍功半

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选对了路线

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后面再学财报

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仓位技术分析

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期权和量化才会真正有方向

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第一种方法是赚时代发展的大势

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这也是我认为

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最适合大多数普通人的长期投资方法

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它的核心不是预测明天涨还是跌

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也不是猜下周哪只股票会暴涨

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而是判断未来几年甚至十几年

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社会资源会流向哪里

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股市最重要的功能之一就是进行资源配置

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资金会不断寻找更高效率

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更高回报

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更大增长空间的方向

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一个时代真正重要的产业往往会吸引资本人才

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政策

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技术和用户不断涌入

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比如过去的移动互联网

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新能源车

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半导体

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云计算以及现在的人工智能

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你如果能看懂这种产业大势

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就不需要每天盯着股价波动

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真正要做的是在重要产业刚进入爆发期时

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找到其中最核心

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最稀缺

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最有竞争力的环节

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长期投资最重要的能力

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不是看一家公司今天涨了多少

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而是看他是不是站在时代的主航道上

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很多人以为长期持有很简单

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其实一点都不简单

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因为一只股票上涨100%

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200%

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中间一定会经历很多次回调

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横盘利空和质疑

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如果你只是因为别人推荐而买入

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你拿不住

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如果你只是因为股价涨了而追进去

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你也拿不住

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真正能拿住的人

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往往不是因为胆子大

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而是因为他理解背后的产业逻辑

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想通过时代大势赚钱

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新手最应该学的不是K线

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而是宏观经济和产业发展

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你至少要学会回答几个问题

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未来几年社会最大的变化是什么

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这个变化会创造哪些新需求

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产业链里最稀缺的环节是什么

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谁掌握了最关键的资源

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这里有一个非常重要的概念

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叫产业瓶颈

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很多人研究产业

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只研究哪个行业最火

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但真正赚钱的人

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往往研究的是这个行业最缺什么

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因为一个产业爆发时

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钱不会平均流向每一个环节

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他会流向最稀缺

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最难替代

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最有定价权的地方

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一个新产业起来

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最赚钱的不一定是最靠近消费者的公司

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也可能是上游提供关键设备

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关键材料

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关键芯片

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关键基础设施的公司

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需求爆发以后

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谁卡住瓶颈

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谁就可能拥有更强的议价能力

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以AI为例

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很多人一开始只关注应用

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但真正推动AI发展的底层可能包括算力芯片

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数据中心

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电力供应

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网络设备

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存储散热模型平台和行业应用

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风口不一定只在最热闹的地方

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而是在最稀缺

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最难替代的位置

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所以我说财报不是第一步

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财报很重要

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但它是验证工具

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不是起点

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你先要有产业判断

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然后再用财报去验证

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这家公司是不是真的吃到了红利

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收入有没有增长

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毛利率有没有改善

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现金流有没有跟上

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订单和客户有没有增加

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如果产业逻辑很美好

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但公司财报长期没有兑现

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那就说明你的判断可能错了

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或者这家公司并不是产业链里最受益的环节

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长期投资不是靠信仰硬扛

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而是用产业逻辑建立假设

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再用财报和经营数据不断验证

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假设方法一的完整学习路线是先学宏观

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再学产业

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再学公司

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最后才学估值和仓位

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宏观解决的是钱会不会变多

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产业解决的是钱会往哪里流

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公司解决的是谁能把机会变成收入和利润

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估值解决的是现在买贵不贵

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这类方法最适合上班族

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创业者

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长期主义者以及想实现fire的人

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因为你没有时间每天盯盘

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长期复利和资产配置比短期刺激更重要

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你不一定要成为经济学家

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但你要愿意花时间理解

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这个世界正在发生什么变化

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他不适合急着暴富的人

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如果你希望一个月翻倍

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或者每天都想看到收益

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这条路会让你很痛苦

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因为大趋势投资经常需要等待

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甚至需要在别人质疑的时候坚持

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没有理解的持有不叫长期投资

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只是被动套牢

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第二种方法是赚别人恐惧的钱

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我把它称为卖保险

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在金融市场里

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期权卖方本质上就像保险公司

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别人担心下跌

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愿意花钱买

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保护别人担心踏空

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愿意花钱买上涨机会

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卖方收取权利金

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同时承担相应风险

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比如你认为某只股票下方有强支撑

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不太可能跌破某个价格

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你可以卖出较低行全价的put

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只要到期时股价没有跌破那个价格

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或者跌幅没有超过你的安全边际

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你就可能赚取权利金

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再比如你手里持有一只股票

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认为短期上涨空间有限

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你可以卖出背对靠

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用一部分上方上涨空间换取一笔权利金

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这类策略的核心不是预测暴涨暴跌

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而是判断市场在某个时间段内

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大概率不会突破某个区间

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所以卖保险的人最应该学习的是支撑位

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压力位

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期权定价波动率

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希腊字母保证金管理和GX

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你要理解自己卖出去的不是一张彩票

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而是一份风险合同

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GX就是gamma exposure

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也就是gamma敞口

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它可以帮助你观察期权市场里

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做市商的对冲压力集中在哪里

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从而辅助理解潜在支撑

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潜在阻力和波动分界

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但GX不是水晶球

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他不能保证某个点位一定撑住

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也不能保证某个压力位一定突破不了

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期权

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卖方最容易犯的错误

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就是把高胜率误解成低风险

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卖期权经常会出现一种体验

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连续很多次赚钱

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每次赚一点看起来非常稳定

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但真正的风险在于一次极端行情

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可能吃掉前面很多次的收益

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所以卖保险的核心能力不是进攻

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而是防守

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你要知道自己最坏情况下会亏多少

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要知道什么时候止损

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要知道保证金会不会突然上升

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要知道如果价格快速击穿支撑位

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自己是移仓对冲还是认赔

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想走这条路

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第一步学期权基础

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弄懂call和put是什么

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买方和卖方分别在赌什么

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行权价和到期日如何影响风险收益

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第二步学时间价值

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因为卖方赚的很多时候不是方向的钱

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而是时间流逝的钱

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第三步学希腊字母delta告诉你方向暴露有多大

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gamma告诉你价格变化时

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风险会变化的多快

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theta告诉你时间价值如何衰减

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VEGA告诉你波动率变化会如何影响期权价格

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第四步学策略

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新手不要一上来就裸卖期权

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更不要高杠杆

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卖期权比较适合入门的是现金担保

229
00:09:36,759 --> 00:09:38,259
卖铺和备兑卖

230
00:09:38,259 --> 00:09:42,450
靠你本来愿意以某个价格买入才考虑卖put

231
00:09:42,450 --> 00:09:47,049
你本来愿意在某个价格卖出才考虑被对扣

232
00:09:47,490 --> 00:09:49,330
第五步学风控

233
00:09:49,330 --> 00:09:53,068
每一次开仓前都要问自己三个问题

234
00:09:53,068 --> 00:09:54,708
如果判断错了

235
00:09:54,708 --> 00:09:56,489
我最多亏多少

236
00:09:56,489 --> 00:09:58,869
如果市场暴跌或暴涨

237
00:09:58,869 --> 00:10:01,110
我有没有足够保证金

238
00:10:01,110 --> 00:10:02,830
如果出现黑天鹅

239
00:10:02,830 --> 00:10:04,649
我是止损减仓

240
00:10:04,649 --> 00:10:07,539
移仓还是对冲

241
00:10:07,860 --> 00:10:08,620
卖保险

242
00:10:08,620 --> 00:10:12,340
这条路适合有一定本金愿意学习规则

243
00:10:12,340 --> 00:10:14,789
能够严格控制风险的人

244
00:10:14,789 --> 00:10:18,259
它尤其适合已经有长期持仓的人

245
00:10:18,259 --> 00:10:20,779
比如你长期看好某个资产

246
00:10:20,779 --> 00:10:23,840
但希望在震荡期增加一点现金流

247
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,759
那么期权可以成为增强收益的工具

248
00:10:28,110 --> 00:10:30,470
但他不适合满仓梭哈的人

249
00:10:30,470 --> 00:10:32,129
不适合情绪化的人

250
00:10:32,129 --> 00:10:34,070
更不适合只看到收租

251
00:10:34,070 --> 00:10:36,210
看不到爆仓风险的人

252
00:10:36,210 --> 00:10:39,309
如果一个人连正股波动都承受不了

253
00:10:39,309 --> 00:10:41,490
却想通过卖期权赚钱

254
00:10:41,490 --> 00:10:42,590
那很危险

255
00:10:42,590 --> 00:10:46,909
因为期权的非线性风险比股票更复杂

256
00:10:47,369 --> 00:10:50,568
第三种方法我称为概率交易

257
00:10:50,568 --> 00:10:52,109
有人可能会说

258
00:10:52,109 --> 00:10:54,059
这不就是赌博吗

259
00:10:54,059 --> 00:10:55,620
从某种意义上说

260
00:10:55,620 --> 00:10:58,909
短线交易确实很接近概率游戏

261
00:10:58,909 --> 00:11:01,769
你不是靠企业长期成长赚钱

262
00:11:01,769 --> 00:11:04,240
也不是靠收取权利金赚钱

263
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:08,840
而是在短期价格波动中寻找可重复的优势

264
00:11:09,350 --> 00:11:13,629
真正的交易者和普通赌徒最大的区别在于

265
00:11:13,629 --> 00:11:15,110
赌徒靠感觉

266
00:11:15,110 --> 00:11:15,789
交易者

267
00:11:15,789 --> 00:11:16,779
靠系统

268
00:11:16,779 --> 00:11:20,240
赌徒想的是这一把我一定要赢

269
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:21,679
交易者想的是

270
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:23,899
只要长期期望值为正

271
00:11:23,899 --> 00:11:26,720
单次输赢并不重要

272
00:11:27,039 --> 00:11:28,799
如果你要走这条路

273
00:11:28,799 --> 00:11:31,779
最重要的不是学一个神奇指标

274
00:11:31,779 --> 00:11:34,690
而是建立一套完整的交易系统

275
00:11:34,690 --> 00:11:38,210
一个交易系统至少包括入场条件

276
00:11:38,210 --> 00:11:39,389
出场条件

277
00:11:39,389 --> 00:11:40,509
仓位规则

278
00:11:40,509 --> 00:11:43,570
风险控制和复盘机制

279
00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:45,200
入场条件

280
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:46,720
回答你为什么买

281
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,669
是突破买入还是回调买入

282
00:11:49,669 --> 00:11:50,669
出场条件

283
00:11:50,669 --> 00:11:51,929
回答你什么时候卖

284
00:11:51,929 --> 00:11:55,070
是跌破均线卖还是达到目标收益

285
00:11:55,070 --> 00:11:56,519
卖仓位规则

286
00:11:56,519 --> 00:11:58,399
回答你每次投入多少

287
00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:02,080
连续亏损时是否降低仓位

288
00:12:02,490 --> 00:12:03,450
风险控制

289
00:12:03,450 --> 00:12:05,769
回答单笔交易最多亏多少

290
00:12:05,769 --> 00:12:07,470
一天最多亏多少

291
00:12:07,470 --> 00:12:08,129
一个月

292
00:12:08,129 --> 00:12:11,370
最大回撤超过多少就停止交易

293
00:12:11,370 --> 00:12:15,730
复盘机制回答每一笔交易是不是符合系统亏损

294
00:12:15,730 --> 00:12:19,330
是系统失效还是你没有执行纪律

295
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,899
很多人学习技术分析

296
00:12:21,899 --> 00:12:25,350
最大的问题是把它当成预测工具

297
00:12:25,350 --> 00:12:27,289
他们希望通过一个形态

298
00:12:27,289 --> 00:12:28,289
一个指标

299
00:12:28,289 --> 00:12:32,039
一条均线预测未来一定会发生什么

300
00:12:32,039 --> 00:12:36,179
但技术分析真正有价值的地方不是让你算命

301
00:12:36,179 --> 00:12:39,080
而是帮助你建立交易规则

302
00:12:39,649 --> 00:12:42,590
量化交易者会说我不相信感觉

303
00:12:42,590 --> 00:12:44,379
我只相信样本

304
00:12:44,379 --> 00:12:47,340
一个策略必须经过历史数据测试

305
00:12:47,340 --> 00:12:48,639
样本外测试

306
00:12:48,639 --> 00:12:49,679
实盘验证

307
00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,919
还要考虑手续费滑点

308
00:12:51,919 --> 00:12:54,429
最大回撤和策略失效

309
00:12:54,429 --> 00:12:56,269
不要问这一次会不会赢

310
00:12:56,269 --> 00:12:57,429
要问100次

311
00:12:57,429 --> 00:12:58,570
1000次之后

312
00:12:58,570 --> 00:13:01,350
整体是否有正期望

313
00:13:01,809 --> 00:13:06,220
新手最容易犯的错误是把短期盈利当成能力

314
00:13:06,220 --> 00:13:08,539
连续三次追涨都赚钱

315
00:13:08,539 --> 00:13:11,370
就以为自己找到了财富密码

316
00:13:11,370 --> 00:13:13,570
结果第四次重仓追进去

317
00:13:13,570 --> 00:13:17,470
直接被套在高点或者回测很好看

318
00:13:17,470 --> 00:13:22,830
实盘却因为滑点手续费和情绪执行而变形

319
00:13:23,330 --> 00:13:26,029
交易这条路看起来门槛最低

320
00:13:26,029 --> 00:13:27,889
实际上要求最高

321
00:13:27,889 --> 00:13:31,269
因为他要求你同时具备数据能力

322
00:13:31,269 --> 00:13:32,070
执行力

323
00:13:32,070 --> 00:13:35,190
情绪控制能力和风险管理能力

324
00:13:35,190 --> 00:13:36,830
该止损时不止损

325
00:13:36,830 --> 00:13:38,190
该空仓时手痒

326
00:13:38,190 --> 00:13:39,629
该轻仓时重仓

327
00:13:39,629 --> 00:13:42,990
这些才是交易者真正的敌人

328
00:13:43,460 --> 00:13:45,720
这条路适合喜欢数据

329
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,559
能接受长期训练

330
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:48,639
纪律性强

331
00:13:48,639 --> 00:13:51,710
愿意从小资金开始不断复盘的人

332
00:13:51,710 --> 00:13:54,990
但他不适合大多数情绪化的新手

333
00:13:54,990 --> 00:13:58,110
如果你买入后每5分钟就看一次价格

334
00:13:58,110 --> 00:14:00,509
连续亏损后想加倍下注

335
00:14:00,509 --> 00:14:03,509
那交易就会真的变成赌博

336
00:14:04,149 --> 00:14:05,750
讲完三种方法

337
00:14:05,750 --> 00:14:06,970
很多人会问

338
00:14:06,970 --> 00:14:09,129
那我到底应该选哪一种

339
00:14:09,129 --> 00:14:12,139
我的建议是先看你的目标

340
00:14:12,139 --> 00:14:14,679
如果目标是长期财富增长

341
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,679
优先选择时代大势

342
00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,000
如果目标是fire核心

343
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,519
也应该是时代大势

344
00:14:20,519 --> 00:14:23,240
在适当结合卖保险

345
00:14:23,590 --> 00:14:26,809
如果目标是每个月增加一点现金流

346
00:14:26,809 --> 00:14:28,269
可以研究卖保险

347
00:14:28,269 --> 00:14:30,799
但一定要先学风险管理

348
00:14:30,799 --> 00:14:33,440
如果目标是挑战短线交易

349
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,220
才去研究概率交易

350
00:14:35,220 --> 00:14:40,240
而且必须从小资金模拟盘和严格复盘开始

351
00:14:40,570 --> 00:14:42,679
对大多数普通人来说

352
00:14:42,679 --> 00:14:45,779
最合理的路径不是一上来学期权

353
00:14:45,779 --> 00:14:47,799
也不是一上来做短线

354
00:14:47,799 --> 00:14:50,659
而是先建立长期投资框架

355
00:14:50,659 --> 00:14:53,259
先学会判断什么是好资产

356
00:14:53,259 --> 00:14:54,200
好行业

357
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:55,080
好公司

358
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:56,639
等有了长期仓位

359
00:14:56,639 --> 00:14:59,659
再考虑用期权增强收益

360
00:15:00,139 --> 00:15:03,740
普通人的学习顺序应该是先学投资

361
00:15:03,740 --> 00:15:04,919
再学期权

362
00:15:04,919 --> 00:15:06,828
最后再学交易

363
00:15:06,828 --> 00:15:08,428
先赚时代的钱

364
00:15:08,428 --> 00:15:10,328
再考虑赚波动的钱

365
00:15:10,328 --> 00:15:13,068
最后才尝试赚概率的钱

366
00:15:13,068 --> 00:15:15,369
这不是因为技术分析没用

367
00:15:15,369 --> 00:15:17,109
也不是因为期权不好

368
00:15:17,109 --> 00:15:20,989
而是因为他们对新手的要求更高

369
00:15:21,309 --> 00:15:24,009
很多人亏钱不是因为不努力

370
00:15:24,009 --> 00:15:26,429
而是因为学习顺序错了

371
00:15:26,429 --> 00:15:27,889
还没理解产业

372
00:15:27,889 --> 00:15:29,289
就开始看K线

373
00:15:29,289 --> 00:15:32,090
还没理解风险就开始卖期权

374
00:15:32,090 --> 00:15:35,230
还没理解概率就开始做短线

375
00:15:35,230 --> 00:15:37,169
最后学了很多东西

376
00:15:37,169 --> 00:15:39,590
却没有形成系统

377
00:15:40,029 --> 00:15:41,830
如果你是完全新手

378
00:15:41,830 --> 00:15:44,129
我建议第一年不要急着赚钱

379
00:15:44,129 --> 00:15:45,750
先建立框架

380
00:15:45,750 --> 00:15:50,659
用大部分时间学习宏观产业和公司分析

381
00:15:50,659 --> 00:15:53,539
可以从指数基金行业ETF

382
00:15:53,539 --> 00:15:55,580
大型龙头公司开始研究

383
00:15:55,580 --> 00:15:59,139
不要一开始就碰高杠杆工具

384
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,109
第2年开始建立自己的观察清单

385
00:16:03,109 --> 00:16:05,788
选几个你真正看得懂的行业

386
00:16:05,788 --> 00:16:07,708
持续跟踪他们的政策

387
00:16:07,708 --> 00:16:08,708
技术变化

388
00:16:08,708 --> 00:16:09,950
竞争格局

389
00:16:09,950 --> 00:16:12,470
财报表现和估值变化

390
00:16:12,470 --> 00:16:14,830
你不需要看懂所有行业

391
00:16:14,830 --> 00:16:18,269
只需要慢慢建立自己的能力圈

392
00:16:18,669 --> 00:16:21,919
第3年再考虑更复杂的工具

393
00:16:21,919 --> 00:16:24,059
如果你已经有长期持仓

394
00:16:24,059 --> 00:16:27,850
可以小仓位学习背对call或现金担保put

395
00:16:27,850 --> 00:16:29,889
如果你对数据感兴趣

396
00:16:29,889 --> 00:16:33,309
也可以用极小资金测试交易系统

397
00:16:33,309 --> 00:16:34,950
市场永远都在

398
00:16:34,950 --> 00:16:36,210
真正重要的是

399
00:16:36,210 --> 00:16:39,350
不要在没准备好时被淘汰

400
00:16:39,740 --> 00:16:41,419
最后记住一句话

401
00:16:41,419 --> 00:16:43,639
先选路再学工具

402
00:16:43,639 --> 00:16:45,720
如果你想赚时代的钱

403
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,940
就去研究宏观产业和公司

404
00:16:48,940 --> 00:16:51,059
如果你想赚保险的钱

405
00:16:51,059 --> 00:16:54,509
就去研究期权波动率和风控

406
00:16:54,509 --> 00:16:56,610
如果你想赚交易的钱

407
00:16:56,610 --> 00:17:02,629
就去研究概率系统和执行财报仓位

408
00:17:02,629 --> 00:17:04,990
K线期权量化

409
00:17:04,990 --> 00:17:06,430
这些都很重要

410
00:17:06,430 --> 00:17:08,348
但他们只是工具

411
00:17:08,348 --> 00:17:11,130
工具本身不会让你赚钱

412
00:17:11,130 --> 00:17:14,809
真正让你赚钱的是你知道自己为什么买

413
00:17:14,809 --> 00:17:15,730
为什么卖

414
00:17:15,730 --> 00:17:17,170
赚的是什么钱

415
00:17:17,170 --> 00:17:19,849
承担的是什么风险

416
00:17:20,209 --> 00:17:24,209
本视频只用于财经教育和投资认知讨论

417
00:17:24,209 --> 00:17:26,189
不构成任何投资建议

418
00:17:26,189 --> 00:17:32,160
证券推荐理财建议或买卖邀约股票基金ETF

419
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,720
期权等金融产品都有波动和亏损风险

420
00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:37,460
请根据自身现金流

421
00:17:37,460 --> 00:17:41,740
风险承受能力和所在地法律法规独立判断

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