【Financial Education】Tom Lee：标普8000点，夏季回调就在眼前！

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这市场真有意思

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确实是个有趣的市场

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我们有一些股票深受投资者喜爱

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他们赚的钱远超预期

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还有一些股票每天让人提心吊胆

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就像

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这股票今天又崩盘了

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这股票今天又崩了对吧

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这市场真是令人着迷

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没错

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我有很多股票要分析

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今天需要重点讨论的

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我看到今年剩余时间的最佳赚钱机会

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未来几年

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我们将在视频中详细探讨

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期待分享我的观点和见解

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好的，来看看Micron

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显然这只股票大幅上涨

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吉姆·莱文塔尔今日以历史新高买入该股

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这很有趣

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这个视频值得回应

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我期待深入讨论科技股行情

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这是一个值得探讨的话题

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在历史高点买入股票

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这对我来说很难理解

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我实在难以接受这种操作

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但这是一个必须讨论的议题

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我们得好好聊聊这个

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我期待回应这个观点

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接下来我要回应这个

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我们看到美国经济正在转折

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这是重大声明

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好的，最后这个

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你们一定会喜欢汤姆·李的这个

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我们来自CBC

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就在几小时前

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我在YouTube上找不到这个片段

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视频平台也搜不到

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我们来听听看

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嗯

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收盘前

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他在播客中分析市场未来走势

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以及所有机会和见解

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他还预测了明年市场走向

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整体预测很重大

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好的

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感谢大家一如既往的支持

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有一点

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在开始前我需要大家配合一件事

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因为我们有很多事情需要完成

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我只需要你点个赞

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这就是我需要的一切

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感谢你一如既往地陪伴我

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另外请务必订阅频道

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现在这个频道有多少订阅者了

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一百四十万

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可能差不多这样

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感谢每一位在此陪伴的你们

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好的

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顺便说一句

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私密群即将关闭新成员加入

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你有

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呃

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还剩不到四十八小时申请加入

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如果四十八小时后观看此视频

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当你点击那个链接时

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会进入等待列表直到我们重新开放

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不过

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新成员加入正在关闭一段时间

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如果你想提前加入抢先体验

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就在下方置顶评论

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好的

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今天让我们聊聊一些股票

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我们开始讨论

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让我们聊点积极的

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然后谈谈那些持续暴跌的股票

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接着讨论今年剩余时间的最大机会

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以及未来几年

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好的

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关注AMD和微芯科技

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我说

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这些股票仍在持续上涨

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当然

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美光科技表现强劲

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赢家

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今天收获颇丰

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英伟达大涨

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这些内存芯片股短期内仍在飙升

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没错

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呃

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美光科技涨幅近16%，AMD涨超2.5%

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毫无消息驱动

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对吧

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这完全得益于美光当前的积极态势

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以及内存芯片股

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这些股票几乎吸干了整个股市的风头

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没错

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它们正在吸干股市的热度

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简直难以置信

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因此我们正在

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我们现在正处于一个奇怪的时期

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没错因为这个问题

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问题是

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内存芯片价格正在飙升至疯狂程度

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没错

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内存价格正在变得极其疯狂

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这给未来几年的整体AI产业带来巨大风险

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之所以会发生这种情况是因为内存价格现在飙升至难以置信的高位

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此刻我要这样向你解释

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你知道在拉斯维加斯

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我们有很多非常受欢迎的

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无限畅吃的寿司店

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没错

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所有这些

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无限畅吃的寿司店通常收费在30到40美元之间

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当你去那里

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你可以随意点取想要的寿司

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假设米饭价格保持不变

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但假设所有鱼类价格突然翻四倍

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因此所有无限畅吃寿司店将开始收取

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当你去那里时可能收费150到250美元

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猜猜会发生什么

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突然会有很多人不再对无限畅吃寿司感兴趣

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没错这就是我们正在经历的现象

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因为内存价格飙升至疯狂程度

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这会推高所有产品的价格

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突然你会

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这不会一夜之间发生

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但会随着时间推移

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会逐渐削弱市场产品的需求

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毕竟最终你无法负担得起

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因此我们已经听到苹果公司

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可能在下一代iPhone上涨价200美元

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这不是小数目

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这确实显著

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谁能知道他们是否需要进一步大幅提价

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现在可能涨到200美元

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但未来可能涨到400美元

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没错然后你会听说

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这会让英伟达芯片更昂贵

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也会让AMD芯片更昂贵

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没错任何使用内存的设备

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这实际上是市场面临的一个更大风险

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目前市场尚未意识到

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但目前市场

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只关注其积极面

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天啊

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这些公司赚得盆满钵满

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简直令人惊叹啊这些内存芯片公司

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三星

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SK海力士和美光

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现在在这个时间节点，看起来它们

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你知道的

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全球市值前十中就有三家

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这太惊人了

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就是三家内存芯片公司

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这就是一种现象

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短期走势我有更深入的看法关于微盘股票

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你知道的

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我的观点是关于微盘在这些内存芯片股上

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把它们全部整合起来

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好的

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我的观点是关于这些股票

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它们今年都将见顶

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就当前股价而言

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就盈利情况来看

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就股价表现而言

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今年都将见顶

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随后将经历一到两年的

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大概

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我称之为震荡阶段

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股价上下波动

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没有明显趋势

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之后将进入大幅下行周期

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但这需要时间来验证

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所以啊

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这就是我认为会发生的情况

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呃

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你知道的

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我长期研究这些标准化内存芯片公司的趋势

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很长时间以来

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而总会有人反对

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当周期处于高峰时

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这次不同寻常

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但最终从未真正不同

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因此我认为现在正在重复同样的现象

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没错

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人们会说这次不一样

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同时他们还会展望三年后的未来

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利润率将大幅低于今年水平

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没错，这是一个需要观察的游戏

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这些周期需要数年时间

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上行周期持续数年

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震荡周期持续数年

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然后下行周期同样持续数年

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因此需理解这些周期通常在2-5年之间

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好的

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这大致涵盖了AMD部分

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你知道我之前讨论过这个

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我不知道有多少人听说过这件事

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但就我看来，AMD股价何时见顶

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我实际认为AMD股价将在2027年见顶

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他们的盈利峰值可能要到2029或2030年

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就这个特定的芯片周期而言

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我们现在正处于其中

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但就股价走势而言

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我认为会在27年达到峰值

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我们将开始出现震撼季度财报

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美光现在已经出现两个震撼财报

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还没出现过真正亮眼的表现

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来自AMD

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我认为首个震撼财报将在下一季度到来

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他们可能会在大约一个月后公布

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一个月半后

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这将是第一个

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之后还会再有一个

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因此AMD股价大概率在27年见顶

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而我觉得这些内存芯片股都在26年见顶

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现在我们来谈谈现在

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这是房间里的大象

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看看这只股票现在

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89美元

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疲软程度相当明显

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Meta仍在持续疲软

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消费类股票目前疲软

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耐克、欧莱雅

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Netflix仍在持续疲软

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说说Netflix

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Netflix会不会跌到69美元

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这只股票前面有个6

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简直疯狂

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这只股票现在下跌了

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不知道是否已跌去50%

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从Netflix历史高点算起

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但已接近这个水平

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没错

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看看这只股票

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我想展示给你们看

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00:07:48,060 --> 00:07:49,240
看看这只股票

240
00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:50,990
让我调出这个

241
00:07:50,990 --> 00:07:51,550
呃

242
00:07:51,550 --> 00:07:52,790
苹果股价极度疲软

243
00:07:52,790 --> 00:07:53,149
现在

244
00:07:53,149 --> 00:07:55,569
苹果下跌6%以上

245
00:07:55,569 --> 00:07:56,889
这太惊人了

246
00:07:56,889 --> 00:07:58,329
但看看Palantir

247
00:07:58,329 --> 00:07:59,730
天啊

248
00:07:59,730 --> 00:08:03,500
Palantir股价107美元

249
00:08:03,500 --> 00:08:04,899
它一路飙升

250
00:08:04,899 --> 00:08:07,339
帕兰蒂尔发生了什么

251
00:08:07,339 --> 00:08:11,158
我说这股票简直弱得惊人

252
00:08:11,158 --> 00:08:12,999
几乎令人震惊地疲软

253
00:08:12,999 --> 00:08:14,678
而且我意思是

254
00:08:14,678 --> 00:08:16,180
太惨烈了

255
00:08:16,180 --> 00:08:17,639
在帕兰蒂尔的估值方面

256
00:08:17,639 --> 00:08:18,360
你知道的

257
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:19,720
如果你看多帕兰蒂尔

258
00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:20,800
好消息是英镑

259
00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,879
估值正在迅速下降

260
00:08:23,879 --> 00:08:26,139
看看帕兰蒂尔的情况

261
00:08:26,139 --> 00:08:26,839
好的

262
00:08:26,839 --> 00:08:29,980
这只四股现在跌至七十多

263
00:08:29,980 --> 00:08:30,819
这可能看起来很高

264
00:08:30,819 --> 00:08:32,080
如果你关注这只股票

265
00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,979
但需记住四股曾一度两百多

266
00:08:35,979 --> 00:08:37,899
甚至三百多

267
00:08:37,899 --> 00:08:40,639
现在四股已跌至三十多

268
00:08:40,639 --> 00:08:42,000
所以你知道的

269
00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:43,179
增长速度极为惊人

270
00:08:43,179 --> 00:08:46,600
今年预期营收增长75%

271
00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:47,799
这是个惊人数字

272
00:08:47,799 --> 00:08:48,379
没错

273
00:08:48,379 --> 00:08:49,220
但呃

274
00:08:49,220 --> 00:08:50,759
我说这些股票

275
00:08:50,759 --> 00:08:52,019
它们根本停不下来

276
00:08:52,019 --> 00:08:52,779
你知道的

277
00:08:52,779 --> 00:08:56,789
任何SaaS领域的股票都难逃厄运

278
00:08:56,789 --> 00:08:59,009
这个空间里没有任何例外

279
00:08:59,009 --> 00:09:00,839
现在正是残酷的时期

280
00:09:02,190 --> 00:09:03,669
帕兰蒂尔也被归类其中

281
00:09:03,669 --> 00:09:05,110
这就是现状

282
00:09:05,110 --> 00:09:06,850
帕兰蒂尔现报107

283
00:09:06,850 --> 00:09:08,549
若突破百元

284
00:09:08,549 --> 00:09:11,629
我认为将出现大量买入压力

285
00:09:11,629 --> 00:09:12,669
但前提是突破百元

286
00:09:12,669 --> 00:09:13,629
但老天

287
00:09:13,629 --> 00:09:14,990
你看这只股票多弱

288
00:09:14,990 --> 00:09:15,970
毫无支撑力

289
00:09:15,970 --> 00:09:17,669
帕兰蒂尔的问题在于

290
00:09:17,669 --> 00:09:18,230
其实不是

291
00:09:18,230 --> 00:09:19,090
你知道的

292
00:09:19,090 --> 00:09:20,190
数据表现优异

293
00:09:20,190 --> 00:09:21,070
我们都很清楚这一点

294
00:09:21,070 --> 00:09:24,549
但股票也需要热度和炒作

295
00:09:24,549 --> 00:09:28,458
而目前缺乏这种氛围

296
00:09:28,458 --> 00:09:32,549
所有人都关注内存芯片股和AMD

297
00:09:32,549 --> 00:09:34,370
这就是现状

298
00:09:34,370 --> 00:09:38,830
因此帕兰蒂尔已成昨日黄花

299
00:09:38,830 --> 00:09:39,730
此时此刻

300
00:09:39,730 --> 00:09:41,000
就在帕兰蒂尔

301
00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,440
你将看到收入增长放缓

302
00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:44,360
就在那里

303
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:44,720
你知道的

304
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,399
目前正处于峰值阶段

305
00:09:46,399 --> 00:09:48,068
然后开始逐渐减少

306
00:09:50,019 --> 00:09:50,938
AMD

307
00:09:50,938 --> 00:09:51,418
呃

308
00:09:51,418 --> 00:09:56,000
未来一到两年将进入收入增长加速期

309
00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,080
显然内存芯片股也是如此

310
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:02,029
所以这就是市场所有热情所在

311
00:10:02,029 --> 00:10:04,029
这就是市场所有人气所在

312
00:10:04,029 --> 00:10:06,059
如果你不是AMD

313
00:10:06,059 --> 00:10:08,109
也不是内存芯片股

314
00:10:08,548 --> 00:10:10,129
他们只是看着你

315
00:10:10,129 --> 00:10:11,068
呃

316
00:10:11,068 --> 00:10:12,028
我们不需要你

317
00:10:12,028 --> 00:10:12,769
是的

318
00:10:12,769 --> 00:10:13,720
真恶心

319
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,700
这就是目前的现状

320
00:10:15,700 --> 00:10:18,409
目前还有一些股票有动量

321
00:10:18,409 --> 00:10:21,009
但并非AMD或内存芯片股

322
00:10:21,009 --> 00:10:22,690
但数量稀少且分散

323
00:10:22,690 --> 00:10:25,190
但以CAKE这只股票为例

324
00:10:25,190 --> 00:10:26,350
以ELF这只股票为例

325
00:10:26,350 --> 00:10:29,029
这些股票整体表现非常强劲

326
00:10:29,029 --> 00:10:29,950
对于这些股票

327
00:10:29,950 --> 00:10:31,799
这很好

328
00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:32,080
我说

329
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,259
CAKE每天都在创出新高

330
00:10:34,259 --> 00:10:35,399
确实存在

331
00:10:35,399 --> 00:10:37,179
CAKE有大买家

332
00:10:37,179 --> 00:10:38,820
CAKE有大买家

333
00:10:38,820 --> 00:10:39,779
我不知道是谁

334
00:10:39,779 --> 00:10:40,659
我一直这么说

335
00:10:40,659 --> 00:10:41,720
关于CAKE股票

336
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,759
这只股票动量过盛

337
00:10:43,759 --> 00:10:44,779
日复一日

338
00:10:44,779 --> 00:10:48,399
股票连续新高接新高

339
00:10:48,399 --> 00:10:49,440
基本面数据也不错

340
00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:49,840
从CAKE来看

341
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,360
但并非特别非凡

342
00:10:52,519 --> 00:10:55,860
其他消费股表现糟糕

343
00:10:55,860 --> 00:10:58,379
目前没什么令人兴奋的

344
00:10:58,379 --> 00:11:01,659
CASTOCK有持续的大买家

345
00:11:01,659 --> 00:11:04,049
但名字不是杰里米·法维

346
00:11:04,049 --> 00:11:06,950
过去几年我一直大量买入CAKE

347
00:11:06,950 --> 00:11:11,210
但现在我要开始减少CAKE的买入

348
00:11:11,210 --> 00:11:12,159
嗯

349
00:11:12,159 --> 00:11:15,240
还有一些我认为更好的投资机会

350
00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,519
今年剩余时间股市中最好的投资机会是什么

351
00:11:19,519 --> 00:11:20,519
就像明年年底

352
00:11:20,519 --> 00:11:22,210
就我个人观点

353
00:11:22,490 --> 00:11:24,909
艾尔夫艾尔是最优机会

354
00:11:24,909 --> 00:11:26,529
我认为今年剩余时间的市场

355
00:11:26,529 --> 00:11:28,068
以及未来几年

356
00:11:28,068 --> 00:11:31,109
而它从低点已上涨三十余%

357
00:11:31,109 --> 00:11:33,009
没错它刚刚

358
00:11:33,009 --> 00:11:34,450
我们大约三周前讨论过

359
00:11:34,450 --> 00:11:37,149
此时此刻它已从低点上涨三十余%

360
00:11:37,149 --> 00:11:38,279
嗯

361
00:11:38,279 --> 00:11:39,080
最好聊聊

362
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:40,480
我认为将持续看到动能

363
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,000
随着年内数据公布

364
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:43,000
并上调业绩指引

365
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,029
以及我认为将发生的各种事情

366
00:11:45,029 --> 00:11:46,940
正如健康领域总是如此

367
00:11:46,940 --> 00:11:50,139
随后长期利润率将更受信心

368
00:11:50,139 --> 00:11:51,039
随着一年进展

369
00:11:51,039 --> 00:11:52,419
长期每股收益

370
00:11:52,419 --> 00:11:53,220
在电话会议中

371
00:11:53,220 --> 00:11:55,599
我认为评论将更积极

372
00:11:55,599 --> 00:11:58,559
而该股票将见动能

373
00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,860
随后该股票将长期涨至两百以上

374
00:12:00,860 --> 00:12:05,059
因此我短期长期都很看好

375
00:12:05,059 --> 00:12:06,360
作为长期投资者

376
00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,960
若短期股价不佳也没关系

377
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,720
毕竟并非世界末日

378
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:13,379
只要长期趋势

379
00:12:13,379 --> 00:12:14,340
品牌发展方向

380
00:12:14,340 --> 00:12:15,159
营收增长情况

381
00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:16,240
每股收益走向

382
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:17,340
利润率变化

383
00:12:17,340 --> 00:12:18,460
只要这些保持不变

384
00:12:18,460 --> 00:12:20,419
这就是我所相信的

385
00:12:20,419 --> 00:12:20,860
没错

386
00:12:20,860 --> 00:12:21,480
嗯

387
00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:22,440
我们没问题

388
00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:23,659
美国运通

389
00:12:23,659 --> 00:12:25,120
因此这类股票

390
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,000
那些表现疲软的股票

391
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:27,539
正如我说的

392
00:12:27,539 --> 00:12:29,279
Netflix 现在极其疲软

393
00:12:29,279 --> 00:12:31,659
目前Netflix处于

394
00:12:31,659 --> 00:12:32,620
看看这个

395
00:12:32,620 --> 00:12:36,340
Netflix 的表现相当惊人

396
00:12:36,340 --> 00:12:38,340
看看这个

397
00:12:39,340 --> 00:12:40,940
Netflix 跌至41.9美元

398
00:12:42,059 --> 00:12:45,740
天啊Netflix

399
00:12:45,740 --> 00:12:46,960
这很引人注目

400
00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:48,320
这真的很有吸引力

401
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:49,379
没错啊

402
00:12:49,379 --> 00:12:51,039
我今天在我的前任页面发布了这个

403
00:12:51,039 --> 00:12:53,940
你没在X上关注我，却用X，还想在那里关注我

404
00:12:53,940 --> 00:12:56,200
链接将在描述区域显示

405
00:12:56,200 --> 00:13:00,440
置顶评论是加入我的私密群组，就在我们关闭新成员加入前

406
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,590
但我的前任页面已链接在下方描述区域

407
00:13:03,590 --> 00:13:04,110
好的

408
00:13:04,110 --> 00:13:05,649
这就是我发布的帖子

409
00:13:05,649 --> 00:13:05,950
我说

410
00:13:05,950 --> 00:13:07,240
Meta和亚马逊股票

411
00:13:07,245 --> 00:13:09,320
未来我们会有很多乐趣

412
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:10,720
但短期内不会

413
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,519
这是两只股票

414
00:13:12,519 --> 00:13:16,039
接下来十二到十八个月大量买入，存入文件柜

415
00:13:16,039 --> 00:13:16,639
没错，这就是方法

416
00:13:16,639 --> 00:13:17,899
如果你持有亚马逊股票

417
00:13:17,899 --> 00:13:19,470
这些股票会经历这些阶段

418
00:13:19,470 --> 00:13:21,429
你知道是一年或数年周期

419
00:13:21,429 --> 00:13:25,090
可以称为调整期或下行周期

420
00:13:25,090 --> 00:13:26,769
然后继续增持这些股份

421
00:13:26,769 --> 00:13:27,909
存入文件柜

422
00:13:27,909 --> 00:13:30,330
因为突然在十二到二十四个月内

423
00:13:30,330 --> 00:13:33,090
Meta和亚马逊的走势

424
00:13:33,090 --> 00:13:35,009
过去我见过无数次

425
00:13:35,009 --> 00:13:36,509
你知道十五二十年间

426
00:13:36,509 --> 00:13:40,210
这些股票的涨幅简直惊人

427
00:13:40,210 --> 00:13:41,350
但会迅速发生

428
00:13:41,350 --> 00:13:43,980
会像死钱一样

429
00:13:43,980 --> 00:13:45,320
比如一年两年

430
00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:46,980
三年或亏损

431
00:13:46,980 --> 00:13:48,980
然后它们会经历调整

432
00:13:48,980 --> 00:13:51,500
接下来十八个月暴涨

433
00:13:51,500 --> 00:13:52,860
你会觉得发生了什么

434
00:13:52,860 --> 00:13:53,899
Meta怎么就翻倍了

435
00:13:53,899 --> 00:13:55,360
直接翻倍甚至三倍四倍

436
00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:56,929
亚马逊也是如此

437
00:13:56,929 --> 00:13:59,289
我认为只需大量持有

438
00:13:59,289 --> 00:14:00,809
这是两家长期优质公司

439
00:14:00,809 --> 00:14:02,330
接下来十二到十八个月大量买入

440
00:14:02,330 --> 00:14:03,849
我对Netflix也是同样的看法

441
00:14:03,849 --> 00:14:07,749
应该在年底前强势上涨至两百以上

442
00:14:07,749 --> 00:14:10,669
Celsius应在三个月内抓住势头

443
00:14:10,669 --> 00:14:13,830
然后进入狂奔模式一到两年后稍作调整

444
00:14:13,830 --> 00:14:15,029
这就是我对Celsius的看法

445
00:14:15,029 --> 00:14:17,850
届时CRM可能突破一百

446
00:14:17,850 --> 00:14:20,570
现在应为2027或2029年做好准备

447
00:14:20,570 --> 00:14:22,389
你知道这是关键一年

448
00:14:22,389 --> 00:14:26,629
这些SaaS公司正迎来最大悲观预期

449
00:14:26,629 --> 00:14:29,629
明年开始并展望未来几年

450
00:14:29,629 --> 00:14:32,759
我认为人们理解这些公司面临的温和机遇

451
00:14:32,759 --> 00:14:34,279
然后他们会评估估值

452
00:14:34,279 --> 00:14:34,960
他们会说

453
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:35,259
好的

454
00:14:35,259 --> 00:14:36,519
这个估值相当有吸引力

455
00:14:36,519 --> 00:14:39,399
这些公司的机遇相当有吸引力

456
00:14:39,399 --> 00:14:40,690
你知道的

457
00:14:40,690 --> 00:14:41,149
是的

458
00:14:41,149 --> 00:14:44,669
这就是我对这家公司的看法，它最终会复苏

459
00:14:44,669 --> 00:14:46,809
这可能出现在下半年

460
00:14:46,809 --> 00:14:52,009
或者2027年消费股会逐步回升

461
00:14:52,009 --> 00:14:53,750
随着下半年的到来

462
00:14:53,750 --> 00:14:56,730
顺便说一下关于SaaS股票的情况

463
00:14:56,730 --> 00:15:00,100
我认为另一个担忧是Anthropic公司

464
00:15:00,100 --> 00:15:01,980
预计将在未来几个月上市

465
00:15:01,980 --> 00:15:03,740
然后是OpenAI公司

466
00:15:03,740 --> 00:15:09,179
因此人们可能会担心关注Anthropic

467
00:15:09,179 --> 00:15:11,360
而OpenAI建议买入这些股票

468
00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,629
因为可以直接使用这些公司的产品

469
00:15:13,629 --> 00:15:14,789
这些公司的产品

470
00:15:14,789 --> 00:15:15,889
这值得商榷

471
00:15:15,889 --> 00:15:17,289
但可能会成为讨论焦点

472
00:15:17,289 --> 00:15:19,940
因此人们可能会投资这些股票

473
00:15:19,940 --> 00:15:20,960
而不是Palantir

474
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:21,940
而不是Salesforce

475
00:15:21,940 --> 00:15:23,000
而不是ServiceNow

476
00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:24,100
对吧

477
00:15:24,100 --> 00:15:27,220
但这些股票目前处于巨大恐慌阶段

478
00:15:27,220 --> 00:15:28,419
现在正经历飓风般的动荡

479
00:15:28,419 --> 00:15:30,039
当前充斥着恐惧和悲观

480
00:15:30,039 --> 00:15:31,039
以及负面情绪

481
00:15:31,039 --> 00:15:32,860
没有人愿意买入

482
00:15:32,860 --> 00:15:33,919
这些情况就是这样

483
00:15:33,919 --> 00:15:35,720
并且大量抛售正在进行

484
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:36,100
你知道的

485
00:15:36,100 --> 00:15:38,490
人们多年来被动持有这些股票

486
00:15:38,490 --> 00:15:41,169
现在正经历大规模抛售

487
00:15:41,169 --> 00:15:41,450
对吧

488
00:15:42,529 --> 00:15:44,940
消费股会逐步回升

489
00:15:44,940 --> 00:15:46,620
下半年将持续发展

490
00:15:46,620 --> 00:15:49,940
2027和2028年消费板块将强劲反弹

491
00:15:49,940 --> 00:15:51,600
像耐克这样的股票

492
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:52,820
美国运通将成为赢家

493
00:15:52,820 --> 00:15:53,059
赢家

494
00:15:53,059 --> 00:15:53,840
鸡肉晚餐

495
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,039
因此这些可能成为黑马

496
00:15:56,039 --> 00:15:57,360
这就是我的个人观点

497
00:15:57,360 --> 00:15:57,850
对吧

498
00:15:57,850 --> 00:15:58,269
嗯

499
00:15:58,269 --> 00:16:00,730
这些消费股多年来表现糟糕

500
00:16:00,730 --> 00:16:01,169
像

501
00:16:01,169 --> 00:16:02,450
就像整体趋势一样

502
00:16:02,450 --> 00:16:02,610
没错

503
00:16:02,610 --> 00:16:04,330
他们这里那里有过不同波动

504
00:16:04,330 --> 00:16:04,610
但啊

505
00:16:04,610 --> 00:16:05,629
这是整体趋势

506
00:16:05,629 --> 00:16:07,210
这些股票表现糟糕

507
00:16:07,210 --> 00:16:09,580
所以我认为

508
00:16:09,580 --> 00:16:13,159
我相信消费股在未来几年将惊人反弹

509
00:16:13,159 --> 00:16:16,379
这些股票将迎来最佳时期

510
00:16:16,379 --> 00:16:17,100
他们已经经历过

511
00:16:17,100 --> 00:16:20,149
以及过去十年到十五年

512
00:16:20,149 --> 00:16:21,970
这就是我的看法

513
00:16:21,970 --> 00:16:24,250
如果看看像

514
00:16:24,250 --> 00:16:27,174
我本人重点投资什么

515
00:16:28,129 --> 00:16:30,110
我告诉你具体是什么

516
00:16:30,110 --> 00:16:31,669
大量消费类股票

517
00:16:31,669 --> 00:16:33,990
就是很多消费类股票

518
00:16:33,990 --> 00:16:35,830
你知道我一直在买入耐克

519
00:16:35,830 --> 00:16:36,710
大量买入

520
00:16:36,710 --> 00:16:38,220
大量美国运通

521
00:16:38,220 --> 00:16:40,100
甚至Revolve

522
00:16:40,100 --> 00:16:41,940
我最近才开始更多买入

523
00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:42,740
在加大投入方面

524
00:16:42,740 --> 00:16:43,639
我的买入操作

525
00:16:43,639 --> 00:16:45,730
而其中一笔买入并不多

526
00:16:45,730 --> 00:16:46,309
呃

527
00:16:46,309 --> 00:16:48,240
对我来说暂时

528
00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:50,139
我还漏了什么吗

529
00:16:50,139 --> 00:16:51,559
Elf elf on a shelf

530
00:16:51,559 --> 00:16:52,740
这也是消费类品牌

531
00:16:52,740 --> 00:16:53,480
A Celsius

532
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:54,480
可以加入这个

533
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:55,919
或许一个消费类品牌

534
00:16:55,919 --> 00:16:56,799
也可能开始说

535
00:16:56,799 --> 00:16:57,840
这是必需消费品

536
00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:58,580
有待商榷

537
00:16:58,580 --> 00:16:59,009
没错

538
00:16:59,009 --> 00:17:02,429
我不认为应该归为必需消费品

539
00:17:02,429 --> 00:17:04,609
不过长期可能属于这个领域

540
00:17:04,609 --> 00:17:05,130
但确实

541
00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:05,809
许多股票

542
00:17:05,809 --> 00:17:07,670
我重仓投资消费类

543
00:17:07,670 --> 00:17:08,430
呃

544
00:17:08,430 --> 00:17:10,049
消费类品牌已经很多了

545
00:17:10,049 --> 00:17:11,809
我们来看一些视频

546
00:17:11,809 --> 00:17:13,289
我期待分析这些内容

547
00:17:13,289 --> 00:17:16,209
然后我们将进入汤姆·李的片段讨论他的观点

548
00:17:16,209 --> 00:17:19,048
他针对多个主题发表了重要观点

549
00:17:19,048 --> 00:17:20,269
包括市场未来走向

550
00:17:20,269 --> 00:17:20,888
这不错

551
00:17:20,888 --> 00:17:23,250
显然对于这只股票

552
00:17:23,250 --> 00:17:24,210
这会很有趣

553
00:17:24,210 --> 00:17:25,450
我迫不及待要反应这些

554
00:17:25,450 --> 00:17:28,269
但这种价格走势真的很有趣

555
00:17:28,269 --> 00:17:31,039
今天这些其他股票也在猜测

556
00:17:31,039 --> 00:17:31,980
就是你制造的

557
00:17:31,980 --> 00:17:32,259
我是说

558
00:17:32,259 --> 00:17:34,819
这是持续轮动

559
00:17:34,819 --> 00:17:36,380
这一点毫无疑问

560
00:17:37,380 --> 00:17:40,388
但如果你以为美光科技只会

561
00:17:40,388 --> 00:17:41,169
你知道的

562
00:17:41,169 --> 00:17:43,169
重新启动整个

563
00:17:43,169 --> 00:17:43,828
哦

564
00:17:43,828 --> 00:17:45,989
美光科技昨天发生了最看涨的事情

565
00:17:45,989 --> 00:17:48,059
顺便说在财报发布前

566
00:17:48,059 --> 00:17:50,259
我现在在打篮球

567
00:17:50,259 --> 00:17:52,140
我戴着耳机呢

568
00:17:52,140 --> 00:17:55,180
听着昨天收盘铃

569
00:17:55,180 --> 00:18:00,460
对啊他们有三位华尔街分析师

570
00:18:00,980 --> 00:18:04,369
斯科特问了三位华尔街人士

571
00:18:04,369 --> 00:18:07,009
我认为美光科技财报后股价会上涨或下跌

572
00:18:08,210 --> 00:18:12,880
猜猜三位华尔街分析师怎么说

573
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,779
三位都预测美光科技股价下跌

574
00:18:15,779 --> 00:18:19,630
我说显然我不做短期操作

575
00:18:19,630 --> 00:18:22,679
但当时真想买些美光看涨期权

576
00:18:22,679 --> 00:18:25,479
或者当天投入一百万美元押注美光

577
00:18:25,479 --> 00:18:26,118
之类的事情

578
00:18:26,118 --> 00:18:27,538
我可以赚一笔快钱

579
00:18:27,538 --> 00:18:31,670
嗯快速赚个十五六千美元

580
00:18:31,670 --> 00:18:34,440
但我不会玩这种短期交易

581
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,960
但一听到三位华尔街交易员都说

582
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:39,759
要下跌

583
00:18:39,759 --> 00:18:41,319
我觉得会涨

584
00:18:41,319 --> 00:18:42,759
财报后股价会上涨

585
00:18:42,759 --> 00:18:43,059
他们说

586
00:18:43,059 --> 00:18:43,720
天啊

587
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:44,480
果然如此

588
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:44,909
兄弟

589
00:18:44,909 --> 00:18:47,528
每当华尔街意见一致时

590
00:18:47,528 --> 00:18:50,489
往往另一方最终胜出

591
00:18:50,489 --> 00:18:52,339
凭借他们亮眼的季度表现

592
00:18:52,339 --> 00:18:53,819
今天没发生

593
00:18:53,819 --> 00:18:54,779
我不认同

594
00:18:55,940 --> 00:18:56,140
好吧

595
00:18:56,140 --> 00:18:57,589
看看这些超涨股

596
00:18:57,589 --> 00:18:59,950
这不是我们经历的AI行情

597
00:18:59,950 --> 00:19:02,029
AI行情不是超涨股

598
00:19:02,029 --> 00:19:06,319
超涨股是推动行情的消费群体

599
00:19:06,319 --> 00:19:08,660
今天的AI行情表现非常出色

600
00:19:08,660 --> 00:19:09,900
标普五百指数前十名中的八家

601
00:19:09,900 --> 00:19:15,410
今日五百只大盘股全部是AI基建的重要组成部分

602
00:19:15,410 --> 00:19:16,049
它们只是没有

603
00:19:16,049 --> 00:19:16,329
是的

604
00:19:16,329 --> 00:19:16,789
没错

605
00:19:16,789 --> 00:19:17,210
呃

606
00:19:17,210 --> 00:19:18,930
乔什说得完全正确

607
00:19:18,930 --> 00:19:22,500
而我认为斯科特在这方面错了

608
00:19:22,500 --> 00:19:24,299
我完全站在乔什这边

609
00:19:24,299 --> 00:19:27,980
当我们谈论AI交易时

610
00:19:27,980 --> 00:19:29,380
这具体指什么

611
00:19:30,660 --> 00:19:31,500
就是美光科技

612
00:19:31,500 --> 00:19:32,759
是存储芯片公司

613
00:19:32,759 --> 00:19:35,339
还有AMD、英伟达

614
00:19:35,339 --> 00:19:36,779
但英伟达已经玩过了

615
00:19:36,779 --> 00:19:37,059
没错

616
00:19:37,059 --> 00:19:39,160
现在开始享受红利的公司

617
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:40,619
这就是AI交易

618
00:19:40,619 --> 00:19:42,779
还有Meta、谷歌

619
00:19:42,779 --> 00:19:45,660
但Meta、谷歌、亚马逊、微软

620
00:19:45,660 --> 00:19:47,549
它们不属于AI交易

621
00:19:47,869 --> 00:19:50,289
长期可能被视为AI交易

622
00:19:50,289 --> 00:19:55,019
但我们尚未看到这些公司从AI中获益足够多

623
00:19:55,019 --> 00:19:55,240
哦

624
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:56,160
这才是AI交易

625
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,859
如果看到这些公司的营收和每股收益

626
00:19:59,859 --> 00:20:01,589
飙升至疯狂程度

627
00:20:01,950 --> 00:20:03,049
那时我们再讨论

628
00:20:03,049 --> 00:20:04,869
但目前还没看到这种情况

629
00:20:04,869 --> 00:20:09,440
这些公司确实从AI中获得了一些好处

630
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,140
但还不够显著

631
00:20:11,140 --> 00:20:11,779
天啊

632
00:20:11,779 --> 00:20:17,409
他们的业务正因AI发生根本性变革，比如AMD、英伟达

633
00:20:17,409 --> 00:20:19,088
美光、闪迪

634
00:20:19,088 --> 00:20:23,568
所有这些公司基本面已被AI交易改变

635
00:20:23,568 --> 00:20:25,680
这就是关键区别

636
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:26,279
来自Meta

637
00:20:26,279 --> 00:20:26,880
来自亚马逊

638
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:27,240
来自谷歌

639
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:27,920
来自微软

640
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:28,519
来自特斯拉

641
00:20:28,519 --> 00:20:31,059
来自这些其他公司巨额投入

642
00:20:31,059 --> 00:20:33,059
没错，然后还有Anthropic、OpenAI

643
00:20:33,059 --> 00:20:33,950
AI相关

644
00:20:33,950 --> 00:20:34,750
可以提出这个观点

645
00:20:34,750 --> 00:20:36,170
但这些是私有公司

646
00:20:36,170 --> 00:20:36,869
目前而言

647
00:20:36,869 --> 00:20:37,789
即使如此

648
00:20:37,789 --> 00:20:38,190
也无法

649
00:20:38,190 --> 00:20:38,670
你知道的

650
00:20:38,670 --> 00:20:39,470
看看这个

651
00:20:39,470 --> 00:20:40,769
从人工智能交易的角度来看

652
00:20:40,769 --> 00:20:44,450
在这些股票中真正受益的只有AMD和我的微芯片

653
00:20:44,450 --> 00:20:45,369
超大规模数据中心

654
00:20:45,369 --> 00:20:47,569
这就是市场今年以来的表现

655
00:20:47,569 --> 00:20:49,769
甚至不算新消息看看

656
00:20:49,769 --> 00:20:51,138
看看我们今天的股票

657
00:20:51,138 --> 00:20:53,058
康宁科技

658
00:20:53,058 --> 00:20:54,239
应用材料

659
00:20:54,239 --> 00:20:55,358
泰瑞达

660
00:20:55,358 --> 00:20:56,318
卡特彼勒

661
00:20:56,318 --> 00:20:58,500
西部数据位列前十

662
00:20:58,500 --> 00:21:00,839
DRAM ETF今日上涨9%

663
00:21:00,839 --> 00:21:02,799
指数今日上涨2%

664
00:21:02,799 --> 00:21:03,720
我向你们保证

665
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:07,099
工业领域的领头羊都是人工智能相关

666
00:21:07,099 --> 00:21:07,960
基础设施板块

667
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:08,859
卡特彼勒

668
00:21:08,859 --> 00:21:10,180
今日涨幅达1%

669
00:21:10,180 --> 00:21:11,190
嗯

670
00:21:11,190 --> 00:21:13,069
还有其他上涨领域

671
00:21:13,069 --> 00:21:14,529
XBI表现良好

672
00:21:14,529 --> 00:21:15,829
住宅建筑板块表现强劲

673
00:21:15,829 --> 00:21:19,190
卡特彼勒股价突破千美元

674
00:21:19,190 --> 00:21:20,869
天啊

675
00:21:20,869 --> 00:21:21,430
现在

676
00:21:21,430 --> 00:21:22,430
女士们先生们

677
00:21:22,430 --> 00:21:26,089
当时机来临我必须明确说明

678
00:21:26,089 --> 00:21:30,970
如果你甚至想做空某个标的

679
00:21:30,970 --> 00:21:33,009
好的假设你需要对冲投资组合

680
00:21:33,009 --> 00:21:34,960
假设你看空市场

681
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,359
如果你想寻找做空标的

682
00:21:39,049 --> 00:21:42,289
卡特彼勒比其他股票更适合做空

683
00:21:42,289 --> 00:21:45,009
假设我认为几乎所有情况

684
00:21:45,009 --> 00:21:47,529
原因在于像卡特彼勒这样的公司

685
00:21:47,529 --> 00:21:51,710
交易基于基本面而基本面才是关键

686
00:21:51,710 --> 00:21:54,069
当人工智能交易降温时

687
00:21:54,069 --> 00:21:55,230
数据中心建设进程

688
00:21:55,230 --> 00:21:56,069
所有这些开始启动

689
00:21:56,069 --> 00:21:57,299
这些开始启动

690
00:21:57,299 --> 00:22:00,539
那时卡特彼勒将遭受重创

691
00:22:00,539 --> 00:22:03,680
而且这会在财报恶化之前发生

692
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,199
所以需要理解这可能还未到来

693
00:22:08,199 --> 00:22:14,199
但终将有我可能也会做空卡特彼勒

694
00:22:14,199 --> 00:22:15,650
我不知道何时发生

695
00:22:15,650 --> 00:22:16,730
但终会到来

696
00:22:16,730 --> 00:22:17,369
我喜欢

697
00:22:17,369 --> 00:22:21,609
我喜欢做空基本面驱动的股票

698
00:22:21,609 --> 00:22:24,210
因为这些逻辑切实可行

699
00:22:24,450 --> 00:22:24,970
你知道的

700
00:22:24,970 --> 00:22:28,730
当我做空特斯拉并成功获利了结时

701
00:22:28,730 --> 00:22:29,849
这确实很难

702
00:22:29,849 --> 00:22:31,849
因为特斯拉不依赖基本面

703
00:22:31,849 --> 00:22:33,799
它完全由市场情绪驱动

704
00:22:33,799 --> 00:22:37,519
因此必须精准把握情绪周期的时机

705
00:22:37,519 --> 00:22:39,200
同样适用于像SpaceX这样的公司

706
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:39,279
比如

707
00:22:39,279 --> 00:22:40,359
如果你在考虑SpaceX

708
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,029
做空其股票

709
00:22:42,029 --> 00:22:44,289
必须在确定时机时果断行动

710
00:22:44,289 --> 00:22:46,349
此时市场情绪会非常低迷

711
00:22:46,349 --> 00:22:48,130
因为它们不遵循基本面逻辑

712
00:22:48,130 --> 00:22:49,549
卡特彼勒则完全基于基本面

713
00:22:49,549 --> 00:22:52,699
这使得做空该股票要容易得多

714
00:22:52,699 --> 00:22:56,378
当你认为基本面故事即将见顶时

715
00:22:56,378 --> 00:22:59,959
并在未来6-12个月内转向下行

716
00:22:59,959 --> 00:23:02,779
因为股价会显著下跌

717
00:23:02,779 --> 00:23:06,259
需要评估市盈率、市净率等指标

718
00:23:06,259 --> 00:23:08,130
以及市销率等估值参数

719
00:23:08,130 --> 00:23:09,130
而像

720
00:23:09,130 --> 00:23:11,690
并使用自由现金流折现模型

721
00:23:11,690 --> 00:23:13,009
特斯拉、SpaceX

722
00:23:13,009 --> 00:23:14,769
它们不需要依赖任何中心化逻辑

723
00:23:14,769 --> 00:23:15,589
这很有趣

724
00:23:15,589 --> 00:23:16,150
嗯

725
00:23:16,150 --> 00:23:18,009
运输板块今日上涨2%

726
00:23:18,009 --> 00:23:22,900
但AI资本支出板块今年已吞噬了市场

727
00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:24,940
这对超大规模科技公司不利

728
00:23:24,940 --> 00:23:28,299
它们正成为AI设备的主要采购方

729
00:23:28,299 --> 00:23:30,960
却无法从股东那里获得回报

730
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,230
事实上

731
00:23:36,390 --> 00:23:37,730
截至今年

732
00:23:37,730 --> 00:23:41,730
这是我很久以来首次能这么说

733
00:23:41,730 --> 00:23:43,730
这些股票总体呈负贡献

734
00:23:43,730 --> 00:23:45,470
尤其是Meta和微软

735
00:23:45,470 --> 00:23:45,890
是的

736
00:23:45,890 --> 00:23:49,009
在指数中权重巨大且年内表现惨淡

737
00:23:49,009 --> 00:23:53,380
AI趋势正全面爆发

738
00:23:53,380 --> 00:23:56,750
美光科技的表现更是昨日的翻版

739
00:23:56,750 --> 00:24:00,410
但缺乏买单的公司参与

740
00:24:00,410 --> 00:24:00,829
好的

741
00:24:00,829 --> 00:24:01,769
嗯

742
00:24:01,769 --> 00:24:03,329
市场你要扪心自问

743
00:24:03,329 --> 00:24:05,730
现在市场在告诉你什么

744
00:24:05,730 --> 00:24:10,849
市场认为Meta、微软这类股票

745
00:24:10,849 --> 00:24:12,430
这些类型股票

746
00:24:12,430 --> 00:24:15,950
基本在说你们是泡沫

747
00:24:15,950 --> 00:24:17,490
他们相信你们是泡沫

748
00:24:17,490 --> 00:24:18,529
他们相信这些

749
00:24:18,529 --> 00:24:22,849
这些公司就像足球队一样，疯狂挥霍所有资金

750
00:24:22,849 --> 00:24:26,440
这对其他公司来说倒是挺好的

751
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,420
你知道它们获利巨大

752
00:24:28,420 --> 00:24:31,950
但他们认为扎克伯格完全不懂在做什么

753
00:24:31,950 --> 00:24:32,529
他正在做什么

754
00:24:32,529 --> 00:24:34,549
这完全是事实

755
00:24:34,549 --> 00:24:37,220
他们认为微软已经迷失方向了

756
00:24:37,220 --> 00:24:39,380
微软也被归入SaaS领域

757
00:24:39,380 --> 00:24:41,819
关于这一点有很多负面看法，就像好吧

758
00:24:41,819 --> 00:24:44,259
它们疯狂支出加上SaaS

759
00:24:44,259 --> 00:24:47,859
他们认为亚马逊就像醉汉般挥霍

760
00:24:47,859 --> 00:24:49,200
他们根本不知道自己在做什么

761
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,619
这就是市场在告诉你的现状

762
00:24:50,619 --> 00:24:51,940
但这并不意味着真实

763
00:24:51,940 --> 00:24:55,009
毕竟市场持续犯错

764
00:24:55,009 --> 00:24:57,450
但短期内这就是市场在说

765
00:24:57,450 --> 00:24:59,329
短期内这就是大资金在说

766
00:24:59,329 --> 00:25:00,630
我们不看好你们

767
00:25:00,630 --> 00:25:01,930
现在不是你们的机会

768
00:25:01,930 --> 00:25:02,970
我们拭目以待

769
00:25:02,970 --> 00:25:03,549
你知道的

770
00:25:03,549 --> 00:25:04,950
我们拭目以待，这确实

771
00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:07,390
这是一场需要数年时间展开的博弈

772
00:25:07,390 --> 00:25:09,950
这不是短期现象

773
00:25:09,950 --> 00:25:12,490
显然这是合理的评估

774
00:25:12,490 --> 00:25:18,549
我认为有人认为这是AI交易的关键时刻

775
00:25:18,549 --> 00:25:20,589
对整个AI领域来说

776
00:25:20,589 --> 00:25:21,490
因为巨型科技股近期走势强劲

777
00:25:21,490 --> 00:25:24,329
对的，纳斯达克早盘曾强劲上涨

778
00:25:24,329 --> 00:25:31,420
但因各种原因已全部消退

779
00:25:31,420 --> 00:25:34,950
说到Sandisk，它正在崛起

780
00:25:34,950 --> 00:25:38,269
Josh观点中的关键参与者

781
00:25:38,269 --> 00:25:41,910
Steph

782
00:25:41,910 --> 00:25:43,130
没错，这里正是观察强势股票的好地方

783
00:25:43,250 --> 00:25:48,329
尤其是从Micron脱离后

784
00:25:48,329 --> 00:25:49,630
工业公司绝对是最大赢家

785
00:25:49,630 --> 00:25:53,190
我曾提到食品产业链

786
00:25:53,190 --> 00:25:54,910
或者讨论Jensen Wong的五层蛋糕模型

787
00:25:54,910 --> 00:25:58,589
道理相同

788
00:25:58,589 --> 00:25:59,609
超大规模云服务商今年将投入800亿美元

789
00:25:59,609 --> 00:26:03,009
它们在资本支出方面

790
00:26:03,009 --> 00:26:04,369
并将明年增至1.6万亿美元

791
00:26:04,369 --> 00:26:06,809
这不会很快结束

792
00:26:06,809 --> 00:26:08,900
因此要持有数据中心建设公司

793
00:26:08,900 --> 00:26:13,039
我们知道数据中心建设需三年时间，单座100亿瓦特工厂需40亿美元

794
00:26:13,039 --> 00:26:18,740
数据中心内部涉及大量投入

795
00:26:18,740 --> 00:26:21,259
这些正是赢家

796
00:26:21,259 --> 00:26:22,619
我们讨论过电网

797
00:26:22,779 --> 00:26:24,500
以及需要升级的老旧电网

798
00:26:24,500 --> 00:26:27,089
这些都需要更新改造

799
00:26:27,089 --> 00:26:29,049
然后当然你还需要电力

800
00:26:29,049 --> 00:26:31,450
而我们显然电力不足

801
00:26:31,450 --> 00:26:33,980
微米公司昨天说的那件事

802
00:26:33,980 --> 00:26:35,059
我确定乔拥有这些股票

803
00:26:35,059 --> 00:26:36,660
所以我确定你会经历这个过程

804
00:26:36,660 --> 00:26:39,819
但他们宣布了十四项战略客户协议

805
00:26:39,819 --> 00:26:43,220
确保了一百亿美元的合同收入

806
00:26:43,220 --> 00:26:45,000
获得两亿美元现金

807
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,140
只是为了确保产能

808
00:26:47,140 --> 00:26:50,220
他们已售罄至至少2027年

809
00:26:50,220 --> 00:26:52,659
这将持续很长时间

810
00:26:52,659 --> 00:26:54,439
G eva nova量子服务

811
00:26:54,439 --> 00:26:56,058
颠覆了所有这些名称

812
00:26:56,058 --> 00:26:58,640
我们讨论了三年到四年

813
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,160
但重点是要坚持他们

814
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,940
因为积压订单从未如此庞大

815
00:27:03,940 --> 00:27:07,400
我平均覆盖工业领域三十年

816
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,299
积压订单持续增长

817
00:27:09,299 --> 00:27:10,079
和五

818
00:27:10,079 --> 00:27:12,319
同比增长百分之十每个季度

819
00:27:12,319 --> 00:27:16,099
平均积压增长达35%至40%

820
00:27:16,099 --> 00:27:17,519
而且只会越来越高

821
00:27:17,519 --> 00:27:19,000
我再说最后一点

822
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,559
因为这非常强大且双关语量子服务

823
00:27:22,559 --> 00:27:27,059
他们的总可寻址市场从9600亿美元

824
00:27:27,059 --> 00:27:29,529
到2030年增至两

825
00:27:29,529 --> 00:27:32,950
四万亿美元是保守的管理团队

826
00:27:32,950 --> 00:27:35,819
他们70%客户是公用事业公司

827
00:27:35,819 --> 00:27:37,180
因此他们受益

828
00:27:37,180 --> 00:27:38,950
其他公司也是如此

829
00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:41,650
但请听管理层怎么说

830
00:27:41,650 --> 00:27:43,480
你不必听我们的任何话

831
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,119
但我们已长期投资这一主题

832
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,119
我将继续超配这一领域

833
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,279
所以昨天

834
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:55,460
因此积压订单非常令人兴奋

835
00:27:55,460 --> 00:27:59,180
当这些公司的积压订单不断上升时

836
00:27:59,180 --> 00:28:00,880
这非常令人兴奋

837
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,380
但我要提醒大家

838
00:28:02,380 --> 00:28:02,740
人们

839
00:28:02,740 --> 00:28:06,279
我首次投资的公司曾大幅增长

840
00:28:06,279 --> 00:28:09,890
积压订单巨大的公司是特里尼蒂工业

841
00:28:09,890 --> 00:28:12,289
当时的股票代码是T N

842
00:28:12,289 --> 00:28:13,970
不知道它是否仍是上市公司

843
00:28:13,970 --> 00:28:15,130
但特里尼蒂工业

844
00:28:15,130 --> 00:28:15,650
我应该

845
00:28:15,650 --> 00:28:16,240
查一下

846
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:17,079
让我们查一下

847
00:28:17,079 --> 00:28:18,319
看看是否仍是上市公司

848
00:28:18,319 --> 00:28:20,079
我已经很久没跟踪这家公司了

849
00:28:20,079 --> 00:28:21,220
让我们把这个家伙拉上来

850
00:28:21,220 --> 00:28:22,920
这还是这个回合吗

851
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:23,960
我们看看有多大

852
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:24,859
如今

853
00:28:24,859 --> 00:28:27,140
市值达28亿美元的市场

854
00:28:27,140 --> 00:28:29,720
所以三一工业公司加上我拥有的这家公司

855
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:35,779
我想我是从2010年或2011年开始买入股票的

856
00:28:35,779 --> 00:28:37,779
我甚至将其建成了重要仓位

857
00:28:37,779 --> 00:28:40,259
这支股票为我带来了巨大收益

858
00:28:40,259 --> 00:28:41,400
在接下来的几年里

859
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,539
在三一工业赚取了巨额利润

860
00:28:43,539 --> 00:28:47,160
这是我早期的重大成功之一

861
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:48,299
没错

862
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,319
当我提到重大成功时

863
00:28:51,319 --> 00:28:54,140
我说的是赚了几千美元的股票

864
00:28:54,140 --> 00:28:55,960
或许甚至赚到了五位数

865
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:56,599
我当时就说

866
00:28:56,599 --> 00:28:58,059
天啊太震撼了

867
00:28:58,059 --> 00:28:59,700
这堪称巨大成功

868
00:28:59,700 --> 00:29:00,220
并不是说

869
00:29:00,220 --> 00:29:02,259
赚了100美元或200美元

870
00:29:02,259 --> 00:29:03,420
我简直不敢相信

871
00:29:03,420 --> 00:29:05,119
这才是真正的巨额收益

872
00:29:05,119 --> 00:29:06,680
这对我意义重大

873
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,039
三一工业

874
00:29:08,039 --> 00:29:08,579
真实

875
00:29:08,579 --> 00:29:08,960
呃

876
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,839
他们生产真正汽车，而且当时北达科他州油气开采热潮

877
00:29:12,839 --> 00:29:14,299
在北达科他州疯狂进行

878
00:29:14,299 --> 00:29:14,940
然后情况是

879
00:29:14,940 --> 00:29:15,200
明白了

880
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,160
你们在开采大量石油和天然气

881
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:17,960
如何运输这些资源

882
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:19,480
在没有管道的地方

883
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,740
只能选择铁路运输

884
00:29:22,740 --> 00:29:25,920
没错，我开始大量买入三一工业公司股票

885
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,720
他们积累了庞大订单 backlog

886
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,359
没错，当时只有两家公司

887
00:29:29,359 --> 00:29:30,640
他们是行业巨头

888
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:31,460
然后还有另一家

889
00:29:31,460 --> 00:29:32,539
存在竞争对手

890
00:29:32,539 --> 00:29:34,420
他们叫绿岭工业

891
00:29:34,420 --> 00:29:35,400
或者其他类似名称

892
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,940
我认为这支股票表现不错

893
00:29:37,940 --> 00:29:39,359
或许卡尔·伊钦买了这只

894
00:29:39,359 --> 00:29:39,839
不过暂且不提

895
00:29:39,839 --> 00:29:41,220
这是另一个故事

896
00:29:41,220 --> 00:29:42,839
但故事的核心是

897
00:29:42,839 --> 00:29:44,039
他们积累了庞大订单 backlog

898
00:29:44,039 --> 00:29:45,369
非常令人兴奋

899
00:29:46,459 --> 00:29:48,499
当积压订单达到顶峰时

900
00:29:48,499 --> 00:29:51,019
正是股价开始下跌的时候

901
00:29:51,019 --> 00:29:51,900
之后不久

902
00:29:51,900 --> 00:29:53,819
我当时已经在这个时候抛售了股票

903
00:29:53,819 --> 00:29:55,140
因为我赚了大钱

904
00:29:55,140 --> 00:29:56,420
我没有在顶点卖出

905
00:29:56,420 --> 00:29:59,130
我抛售后股价反而继续上涨

906
00:29:59,130 --> 00:30:01,730
但当他们仍有大量积压订单时

907
00:30:01,730 --> 00:30:03,250
股价开始下跌

908
00:30:03,250 --> 00:30:05,369
这就是这类公司的常态

909
00:30:05,369 --> 00:30:07,990
它们会在积压订单峰值前就开始下跌

910
00:30:07,990 --> 00:30:10,390
不一定等到积压订单达到顶峰

911
00:30:10,390 --> 00:30:13,179
人们会提前察觉到这一点

912
00:30:13,179 --> 00:30:15,398
然后他们就已经行动了，会员们

913
00:30:15,398 --> 00:30:16,138
你知道的

914
00:30:16,138 --> 00:30:16,999
积压订单

915
00:30:16,999 --> 00:30:17,558
订单承诺

916
00:30:17,558 --> 00:30:19,279
这些可能被取消

917
00:30:19,279 --> 00:30:20,880
有时需要支付费用

918
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:21,839
有时则不需要

919
00:30:21,839 --> 00:30:24,640
所以我经常听到很多人谈论

920
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:24,799
哦

921
00:30:24,799 --> 00:30:26,519
这家公司有 blah blah

922
00:30:26,519 --> 00:30:26,880
blah

923
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,039
订单承诺数量

924
00:30:29,039 --> 00:30:29,599
我心想

925
00:30:29,599 --> 00:30:29,839
好吧

926
00:30:29,839 --> 00:30:30,440
这是承诺

927
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:30,920
但这不是

928
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:31,640
并不一定意味着

929
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:32,650
这是合同

930
00:30:32,650 --> 00:30:35,029
如果有人取消这笔交易

931
00:30:35,029 --> 00:30:38,609
在很多情况下他们并不一定需要承担责任

932
00:30:38,609 --> 00:30:40,519
所以当需求放缓时

933
00:30:40,519 --> 00:30:43,380
积压订单可能会迅速减少

934
00:30:43,380 --> 00:30:44,220
同时我也想到

935
00:30:44,220 --> 00:30:44,480
哦

936
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:48,720
我们实际拥有的积压订单并没有想象中那么令人兴奋

937
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:49,539
说实话

938
00:30:49,539 --> 00:30:51,079
如果你看看房地产开发商

939
00:30:51,079 --> 00:30:52,180
你知道七

940
00:30:52,180 --> 00:30:53,240
哦六

941
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,799
我确定他们当时积压订单很多

942
00:30:55,799 --> 00:30:56,200
我确定

943
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,569
如果我们回顾所有房地产开发商的积压订单数据

944
00:31:00,569 --> 00:31:02,849
比如2026年底

945
00:31:02,849 --> 00:31:05,309
他们的积压订单肯定非常庞大

946
00:31:05,309 --> 00:31:07,279
快进时间

947
00:31:07,279 --> 00:31:08,200
两三年后

948
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,809
看看他们的积压订单如何

949
00:31:10,809 --> 00:31:11,910
需求彻底消失

950
00:31:11,910 --> 00:31:15,410
突然你就知道那个你以为很令人兴奋的积压订单

951
00:31:15,410 --> 00:31:18,509
其实并不那么令人兴奋 所以不要假设

952
00:31:18,509 --> 00:31:18,809
哦

953
00:31:18,809 --> 00:31:21,710
这家公司有五十亿美元的积压订单

954
00:31:21,710 --> 00:31:23,539
我说它们确实不错

955
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:25,539
但这不是运作方式

956
00:31:25,539 --> 00:31:25,960
好的

957
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,200
所以需要保持这一点

958
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:28,700
可能在这个项目上不太适用

959
00:31:28,700 --> 00:31:30,599
但顺便说一句

960
00:31:30,599 --> 00:31:32,730
希望大家喜欢这些高层主题

961
00:31:32,730 --> 00:31:34,569
深入视频三分钟

962
00:31:34,569 --> 00:31:36,190
感谢大家的到来

963
00:31:36,190 --> 00:31:36,609
不像

964
00:31:36,609 --> 00:31:37,750
你知道这很深入

965
00:31:37,750 --> 00:31:37,970
像

966
00:31:37,970 --> 00:31:38,450
这就是

967
00:31:38,450 --> 00:31:39,049
你知道的

968
00:31:39,049 --> 00:31:39,569
真材实料

969
00:31:39,569 --> 00:31:40,529
天啊

970
00:31:40,529 --> 00:31:42,509
尤其是在收盘时

971
00:31:42,509 --> 00:31:45,699
在财报发布前的讨论中

972
00:31:45,699 --> 00:31:47,219
还有谁在谈论这个

973
00:31:47,219 --> 00:31:50,499
还有谁会讲十六年前的三一工业故事

974
00:31:50,499 --> 00:31:51,378
十五年前

975
00:31:51,378 --> 00:31:51,858
你知道的

976
00:31:51,858 --> 00:31:53,598
以及最终结果如何

977
00:31:53,598 --> 00:31:53,919
像

978
00:31:53,919 --> 00:31:54,509
你知道的

979
00:31:54,509 --> 00:31:55,569
喂兄弟

980
00:31:55,569 --> 00:31:56,349
你根本得不到这个

981
00:31:56,349 --> 00:31:56,789
别处都找不到

982
00:31:56,789 --> 00:31:59,559
真正围绕美光科技展开

983
00:31:59,559 --> 00:32:06,099
传统上这些业务高度周期性

984
00:32:06,099 --> 00:32:07,269
芯片没错

985
00:32:07,269 --> 00:32:10,569
而这次确实与以往不同

986
00:32:10,569 --> 00:32:14,490
这在美光科技期间让投资者犹豫

987
00:32:14,490 --> 00:32:17,549
今天你可以提出论点

988
00:32:17,549 --> 00:32:20,990
美光财报显示并非如此

989
00:32:20,990 --> 00:32:22,509
事实上这次不同

990
00:32:22,509 --> 00:32:30,329
这更是一个关于这类芯片的长期趋势

991
00:32:30,329 --> 00:32:32,670
投资者已经如何

992
00:32:32,670 --> 00:32:33,349
稳住别慌

993
00:32:33,349 --> 00:32:34,730
稍作停顿

994
00:32:34,730 --> 00:32:37,638
这次并无不同

995
00:32:37,638 --> 00:32:40,898
现在还太早预测盈利峰值

996
00:32:40,898 --> 00:32:41,739
或类似情况

997
00:32:41,739 --> 00:32:43,259
我们在讨论什么

998
00:32:43,259 --> 00:32:45,259
这次不会不同

999
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,799
这次的结果会和之前所有情况一样顺利

1000
00:32:47,799 --> 00:32:49,759
这可是更大的事情啊对吧

1001
00:32:49,759 --> 00:32:52,420
今年到明年收入将疯狂增长

1002
00:32:52,420 --> 00:32:54,319
接下来你会经历周期峰值

1003
00:32:54,319 --> 00:32:55,119
峰值利润率

1004
00:32:55,119 --> 00:32:55,920
峰值每股收益

1005
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:56,359
所有这些情况

1006
00:32:56,359 --> 00:32:59,210
然后又要经历新一轮行业周期

1007
00:32:59,490 --> 00:33:01,329
这个信号不会有不同

1008
00:33:01,329 --> 00:33:02,529
唯一的问题是

1009
00:33:02,529 --> 00:33:03,329
如果你试图

1010
00:33:03,329 --> 00:33:04,869
现在就是最佳时机

1011
00:33:04,869 --> 00:33:05,250
你的

1012
00:33:05,250 --> 00:33:05,930
你的时机

1013
00:33:05,930 --> 00:33:07,049
偏离时机

1014
00:33:07,049 --> 00:33:08,400
完全错过时机

1015
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:09,839
理清思路

1016
00:33:09,839 --> 00:33:11,319
他们历史了解的内容

1017
00:33:11,319 --> 00:33:12,079
事实确实如此

1018
00:33:12,079 --> 00:33:14,559
与当前情况对比

1019
00:33:14,559 --> 00:33:19,140
这个公司的市盈率并不特别高

1020
00:33:19,140 --> 00:33:20,579
因为它确实不高

1021
00:33:20,579 --> 00:33:22,990
从历史角度看

1022
00:33:22,990 --> 00:33:27,309
或许可以说它略显昂贵

1023
00:33:27,309 --> 00:33:30,809
但这对我来说打开了大门

1024
00:33:30,809 --> 00:33:32,170
接近十倍

1025
00:33:32,170 --> 00:33:35,549
彻底开启'这次不同'的讨论

1026
00:33:35,549 --> 00:33:37,250
就内存技术而言

1027
00:33:37,250 --> 00:33:38,789
绝对感觉如此

1028
00:33:38,789 --> 00:33:41,930
我认为昨天发生了范式转变

1029
00:33:41,930 --> 00:33:46,440
我认为有根本性验证表明

1030
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:51,710
这不是美光的周期性商品时刻

1031
00:33:51,710 --> 00:33:53,470
这是更强大的力量

1032
00:33:53,470 --> 00:33:54,990
这是长期趋势

1033
00:33:54,990 --> 00:33:58,710
不应单纯视为商品

1034
00:33:58,710 --> 00:34:02,430
这是不可替代的资源

1035
00:34:02,430 --> 00:34:04,450
稍作思考区别

1036
00:34:04,450 --> 00:34:11,480
AI加速器的速度所需不可替代资源

1037
00:34:11,519 --> 00:34:16,358
缺少内存组件将无法运行

1038
00:34:16,358 --> 00:34:18,659
如果想想商品属性

1039
00:34:18,659 --> 00:34:19,998
我昨天就提到过

1040
00:34:19,998 --> 00:34:21,458
好的我来分享

1041
00:34:21,458 --> 00:34:22,858
我犯的错误

1042
00:34:23,190 --> 00:34:24,969
如果想想商品属性

1043
00:34:24,969 --> 00:34:25,570
存在

1044
00:34:25,570 --> 00:34:27,070
存在弹性

1045
00:34:27,070 --> 00:34:29,039
与价格相关

1046
00:34:29,039 --> 00:34:31,320
油价上涨时

1047
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,079
最终需求会如何变化

1048
00:34:33,079 --> 00:34:33,760
人们常说

1049
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:34,199
好的

1050
00:34:34,199 --> 00:34:35,619
我打算少开车了

1051
00:34:35,619 --> 00:34:37,840
存在价格弹性

1052
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,019
面对不可替代的资源

1053
00:34:41,019 --> 00:34:42,119
不存在

1054
00:34:42,119 --> 00:34:46,940
并且具备签署十六项战略客户协议的能力

1055
00:34:46,940 --> 00:34:50,849
前往二零二九年以锁定定价

1056
00:34:50,849 --> 00:34:52,239
你的收入

1057
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,318
这是一种非常强大的力量

1058
00:34:54,318 --> 00:34:56,219
这就是范式转变

1059
00:34:56,219 --> 00:34:57,998
但你昨天提前于预期

1060
00:34:57,998 --> 00:34:59,909
你会发起新头寸

1061
00:34:59,909 --> 00:35:02,710
如果认为股价可能下跌

1062
00:35:03,869 --> 00:35:05,510
我觉得你

1063
00:35:05,510 --> 00:35:06,409
你知道的

1064
00:35:06,409 --> 00:35:09,949
或许正逐渐深入井中

1065
00:35:09,949 --> 00:35:11,610
现在我们必须小心这个东西

1066
00:35:11,610 --> 00:35:13,800
鉴于那个家伙

1067
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,360
我刚才听到什么

1068
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:17,960
你在翻我的不

1069
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,699
兄弟听我说

1070
00:35:19,699 --> 00:35:22,750
这就像商业一号

1071
00:35:22,750 --> 00:35:24,110
零一经济学一

1072
00:35:24,110 --> 00:35:24,550
零一

1073
00:35:24,550 --> 00:35:26,050
我们在讨论供需关系

1074
00:35:26,050 --> 00:35:28,389
兄弟听我说

1075
00:35:28,909 --> 00:35:32,030
如果你说所有东西价格必须大幅上涨

1076
00:35:32,030 --> 00:35:32,690
因为内存

1077
00:35:32,690 --> 00:35:36,869
外界需求会自然发生什么变化

1078
00:35:36,869 --> 00:35:38,284
会下降

1079
00:35:39,059 --> 00:35:43,659
如果苹果要在新一代iPhone上涨价两百美元

1080
00:35:43,659 --> 00:35:47,239
假设这不是像某些全新一代那样

1081
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:47,699
天啊

1082
00:35:47,699 --> 00:35:48,780
我对这款新iPhone

1083
00:35:48,780 --> 00:35:49,340
假设是

1084
00:35:49,340 --> 00:35:49,760
你知道的

1085
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,880
与以往所有iPhone一样令人兴奋

1086
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,500
你觉得苹果还能卖出同样多iPhone

1087
00:35:54,500 --> 00:35:57,699
当然不会 因为如果他们

1088
00:35:57,699 --> 00:36:00,380
如果他们认为只能卖出这么多iPhone

1089
00:36:00,380 --> 00:36:03,420
他们本已提价两百美元

1090
00:36:04,250 --> 00:36:08,309
苹果会尽可能提高价格

1091
00:36:08,309 --> 00:36:09,750
同时仍保持大量需求

1092
00:36:09,750 --> 00:36:10,090
对吧

1093
00:36:11,170 --> 00:36:12,639
这就是他们会做的

1094
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,579
如果苹果能轻松卖出同样多iPhone

1095
00:36:16,579 --> 00:36:18,199
价格可提高两百美元

1096
00:36:18,199 --> 00:36:21,849
他们早已这样做了 并多赚两百

1097
00:36:21,849 --> 00:36:24,389
如果苹果能将iPhone定价一万美元

1098
00:36:24,389 --> 00:36:25,969
他们会直接定一万

1099
00:36:25,969 --> 00:36:28,650
因为猜猜他们能赚更多钱

1100
00:36:28,650 --> 00:36:33,688
因此他们已经在按现实价格收费以维持高需求

1101
00:36:33,688 --> 00:36:36,268
所以如果价格突然要大幅上涨

1102
00:36:36,268 --> 00:36:37,369
他们负担不起

1103
00:36:37,369 --> 00:36:37,849
就像不是这样

1104
00:36:37,849 --> 00:36:39,668
能购买新iPhone的人会更少

1105
00:36:39,668 --> 00:36:42,690
道理就跟这些芯片一样

1106
00:36:42,690 --> 00:36:45,309
AMD芯片价格将急剧上涨

1107
00:36:45,309 --> 00:36:47,800
还有英伟达芯片等等数据中心

1108
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,460
Meta也无法大量采购

1109
00:36:50,460 --> 00:36:51,559
亚马逊同样如此

1110
00:36:51,559 --> 00:36:52,559
微软也是如此

1111
00:36:52,559 --> 00:36:55,179
这些公司已用尽预算

1112
00:36:55,179 --> 00:36:57,068
道理就这么简单

1113
00:36:57,429 --> 00:36:58,349
所以这就像

1114
00:36:58,349 --> 00:36:59,469
这就是经济学

1115
00:36:59,469 --> 00:36:59,708
一

1116
00:36:59,708 --> 00:37:00,429
零一先生

1117
00:37:00,429 --> 00:37:00,849
商业

1118
00:37:00,849 --> 00:37:01,068
一

1119
00:37:01,068 --> 00:37:02,489
零一快点快点

1120
00:37:02,489 --> 00:37:03,768
我们在这里讨论什么

1121
00:37:03,768 --> 00:37:04,389
所以

1122
00:37:04,389 --> 00:37:04,809
是的

1123
00:37:04,809 --> 00:37:05,188
猜

1124
00:37:05,188 --> 00:37:07,418
以什么名义涨价

1125
00:37:07,418 --> 00:37:08,179
但再次

1126
00:37:08,179 --> 00:37:10,079
我认为我昨天已阐明观点

1127
00:37:10,079 --> 00:37:13,039
对我来说最大的信号

1128
00:37:13,039 --> 00:37:18,570
进入这次印刷品前与美光无关

1129
00:37:18,570 --> 00:37:21,219
但与其相关

1130
00:37:21,219 --> 00:37:23,179
苹果提高价格

1131
00:37:23,179 --> 00:37:25,210
一周前的报道

1132
00:37:25,210 --> 00:37:29,750
表明蒂姆·库克别无选择

1133
00:37:29,750 --> 00:37:31,489
是的但要涨价

1134
00:37:31,489 --> 00:37:34,429
因他们看到内存变化

1135
00:37:34,429 --> 00:37:36,190
该新闻的定价影响

1136
00:37:36,190 --> 00:37:36,849
你说得对

1137
00:37:36,849 --> 00:37:38,510
所以看吧

1138
00:37:38,510 --> 00:37:38,989
我观察

1139
00:37:38,989 --> 00:37:40,070
这不是个好信号吗

1140
00:37:40,070 --> 00:37:43,619
你以为他们会提价

1141
00:37:43,619 --> 00:37:45,500
你昨天说得很对

1142
00:37:45,500 --> 00:37:48,420
而今天仍在强调相同观点

1143
00:37:48,420 --> 00:37:49,559
这是正确的

1144
00:37:49,559 --> 00:37:51,840
我昨日从风险回报角度分析

1145
00:37:52,199 --> 00:37:54,719
从风险回报角度

1146
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,068
我不喜欢这个布局

1147
00:37:56,068 --> 00:37:57,389
我不喜欢这个布局

1148
00:37:57,389 --> 00:38:02,469
我不喜欢价格远离均线的技术形态

1149
00:38:02,469 --> 00:38:03,989
它上涨了多少

1150
00:38:03,989 --> 00:38:10,309
我建议没有持有它的观众不要今天匆忙买入

1151
00:38:10,309 --> 00:38:12,630
今天我要对这些观众说

1152
00:38:12,630 --> 00:38:14,070
我看看你的左边

1153
00:38:14,070 --> 00:38:15,010
正如你在这里看到的

1154
00:38:15,010 --> 00:38:15,369
这里展示的是

1155
00:38:15,369 --> 00:38:18,719
这就是我设计策略的方法

1156
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,318
我会买入两笔五个百分点

1157
00:38:21,318 --> 00:38:22,818
假设你要买入一百股

1158
00:38:22,818 --> 00:38:25,039
我本周某个时间买入两笔五股

1159
00:38:25,039 --> 00:38:27,239
在市场下方离场

1160
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:30,670
我会挂单买入五十股以9.50美元

1161
00:38:30,670 --> 00:38:32,929
再买入两笔五股以7.50美元

1162
00:38:32,929 --> 00:38:35,059
如果你无法获得这七十五股

1163
00:38:35,059 --> 00:38:36,460
至少你参与了其中

1164
00:38:36,460 --> 00:38:37,480
你必须明白

1165
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,280
有投资者持有这只股票

1166
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:40,489
从一百美元价位

1167
00:38:40,489 --> 00:38:42,849
两人以两百美元买入了这只股票

1168
00:38:42,849 --> 00:38:46,889
我知道现实中有人将其作为最大投资

1169
00:38:46,889 --> 00:38:49,969
他们实际上早在之前就持有

1170
00:38:49,969 --> 00:38:51,409
在一百美元价位买入了股票

1171
00:38:51,409 --> 00:38:51,869
是的

1172
00:38:51,869 --> 00:38:53,429
我得到223

1173
00:38:53,429 --> 00:38:56,250
很难讨论单日波动

1174
00:38:56,250 --> 00:38:58,449
我昨天这样做是错误的

1175
00:38:58,449 --> 00:38:59,789
但这一点非常明确

1176
00:38:59,789 --> 00:39:01,710
这是一次根本性转变

1177
00:39:01,710 --> 00:39:04,909
他们实际上在自行控制定价

1178
00:39:04,909 --> 00:39:05,849
因为他们拥有

1179
00:39:05,849 --> 00:39:07,599
我还会用这两个词

1180
00:39:07,599 --> 00:39:09,280
不可替代的资源

1181
00:39:11,559 --> 00:39:14,070
这实际上符合多个条件

1182
00:39:14,070 --> 00:39:15,289
好的因为我参与其中

1183
00:39:15,289 --> 00:39:16,909
今天我已启动投资

1184
00:39:16,909 --> 00:39:17,909
不是大仓位

1185
00:39:17,909 --> 00:39:18,230
乔

1186
00:39:18,230 --> 00:39:18,489
因为

1187
00:39:18,489 --> 00:39:19,449
显然正如你所说

1188
00:39:19,449 --> 00:39:21,148
它已经上涨了很多

1189
00:39:21,148 --> 00:39:24,489
但我会接受你提出的另一面观点

1190
00:39:24,489 --> 00:39:25,909
并非为了挑衅

1191
00:39:25,909 --> 00:39:28,659
但因为我相信这是周期性行业

1192
00:39:28,659 --> 00:39:31,280
关键在于当前所处周期阶段

1193
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,119
最坏情况我们仍处于中期

1194
00:39:34,119 --> 00:39:37,199
未来某个时间会有替代品出现

1195
00:39:37,199 --> 00:39:38,159
供应量将回升

1196
00:39:38,159 --> 00:39:39,940
但这不会很快发生

1197
00:39:39,940 --> 00:39:41,559
至于估值倍数

1198
00:39:41,559 --> 00:39:42,099
呃斯科特

1199
00:39:42,099 --> 00:39:43,380
我认为你说的是九次

1200
00:39:43,380 --> 00:39:43,760
随便吧

1201
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:44,539
再加上十

1202
00:39:44,539 --> 00:39:44,920
是的

1203
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:45,340
好的

1204
00:39:48,300 --> 00:39:51,440
当前的盈利预测将大幅提高

1205
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,360
从他们提供的指引中可以看出

1206
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:53,880
斯蒂芬妮

1207
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,289
指出了战略客户协议

1208
00:39:56,289 --> 00:39:58,630
这再次延长了这一周期

1209
00:39:58,630 --> 00:39:59,730
这是一家

1210
00:39:59,730 --> 00:40:00,809
当盈利数据公布时

1211
00:40:00,809 --> 00:40:03,760
大概会交易在七倍四倍盈利水平

1212
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,179
所以如果你像我这样的价值投资者

1213
00:40:06,179 --> 00:40:10,039
这完全符合标准，我甚至不用深入分析

1214
00:40:10,039 --> 00:40:10,739
你知道的

1215
00:40:10,739 --> 00:40:13,239
护城河是窄还是宽的竞争

1216
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:13,519
是的

1217
00:40:13,519 --> 00:40:17,139
或摩托竞争是否影响其地位

1218
00:40:17,139 --> 00:40:20,000
美光的空头论点不在于竞争

1219
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:21,289
因为你知道的

1220
00:40:21,289 --> 00:40:21,610
等等

1221
00:40:21,610 --> 00:40:23,510
我想就这一点强调重要观点

1222
00:40:23,510 --> 00:40:25,949
何时买入美光这样的股票最好

1223
00:40:25,949 --> 00:40:28,179
周期性公司会赢

1224
00:40:28,179 --> 00:40:31,380
买入美光这类股票的最佳时机和胜利

1225
00:40:31,380 --> 00:40:34,059
这不是买入美光的好时机

1226
00:40:34,059 --> 00:40:35,280
现在

1227
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,570
美光的前向市盈率很低

1228
00:40:37,570 --> 00:40:38,469
P股没错

1229
00:40:38,469 --> 00:40:40,130
可以争论其低的程度

1230
00:40:40,130 --> 00:40:40,750
因为说实话

1231
00:40:40,750 --> 00:40:43,449
现在的数据表现得非常高

1232
00:40:43,449 --> 00:40:43,750
比如

1233
00:40:43,750 --> 00:40:44,869
就像一个

1234
00:40:47,010 --> 00:40:49,489
你知道股价可能在七倍左右

1235
00:40:49,489 --> 00:40:50,449
当前市盈率四倍

1236
00:40:50,449 --> 00:40:51,969
或六倍、八倍之类

1237
00:40:51,969 --> 00:40:52,730
值得商榷

1238
00:40:52,730 --> 00:40:53,329
没错但

1239
00:40:53,329 --> 00:40:55,219
现在的数据简直惊人

1240
00:40:55,219 --> 00:40:57,420
并且会持续如此

1241
00:40:57,420 --> 00:40:57,840
没错

1242
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:03,940
现在美光的市盈率低得离谱

1243
00:41:03,940 --> 00:41:04,639
没错

1244
00:41:04,639 --> 00:41:06,630
即使股价上涨时

1245
00:41:06,630 --> 00:41:07,349
现在

1246
00:41:07,349 --> 00:41:13,309
买入美光的最佳时机是前向市盈率

1247
00:41:13,309 --> 00:41:14,590
市盈率实际极高

1248
00:41:14,590 --> 00:41:17,769
所以当你看到像美光科技这样的股票交易在一百美元左右

1249
00:41:17,769 --> 00:41:19,230
市盈率或两百美元

1250
00:41:19,230 --> 00:41:20,849
或者你知道五十美元

1251
00:41:20,849 --> 00:41:21,840
类似这样的价位

1252
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:26,960
这其实是一个买入美光科技股票的好时机

1253
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:27,500
好的

1254
00:41:27,500 --> 00:41:30,690
对于像美光这样的股票来说，最危险的买入时机

1255
00:41:30,690 --> 00:41:34,409
这同样适用于可以买入油气股票

1256
00:41:34,409 --> 00:41:35,550
这类股票中的任何一种

1257
00:41:35,550 --> 00:41:38,349
最危险的时刻是市盈率极低的时候

1258
00:41:38,349 --> 00:41:40,239
当市盈率很低时

1259
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,039
这就是你遇到麻烦的时候

1260
00:41:42,039 --> 00:41:46,920
因为你知道这意味着它们的每股收益可能已见顶

1261
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:47,760
利润率达到峰值

1262
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:48,849
所有这些情况

1263
00:41:48,849 --> 00:41:51,030
当股票的市盈率异常高时

1264
00:41:51,030 --> 00:41:54,269
这意味着它们刚刚经历了残酷的下行周期

1265
00:41:54,269 --> 00:41:56,860
而市场很可能转向相反方向

1266
00:41:56,860 --> 00:41:58,360
因为它不会永远下跌

1267
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,579
所以这点需要记住

1268
00:42:00,579 --> 00:42:03,820
他们将面临一个尚未进入该市场的竞争对手

1269
00:42:03,820 --> 00:42:05,539
出现并崛起

1270
00:42:05,539 --> 00:42:07,619
供应量增加

1271
00:42:07,619 --> 00:42:08,440
这就是唯一的

1272
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:09,599
这也是我要提到的

1273
00:42:09,599 --> 00:42:15,539
我们的DRAM供应短缺上涨了60%，NAND上涨了80%

1274
00:42:15,539 --> 00:42:17,980
这就是苹果必须提价的原因

1275
00:42:17,980 --> 00:42:19,559
如果苹果必须提价

1276
00:42:19,559 --> 00:42:20,539
其他所有人

1277
00:42:20,539 --> 00:42:21,780
但我会

1278
00:42:21,780 --> 00:42:22,980
这就是为什么

1279
00:42:22,980 --> 00:42:26,320
为什么所有大型科技股今天都在下跌

1280
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:29,469
因为美光的上涨带来了巨大压力

1281
00:42:29,469 --> 00:42:29,730
现在

1282
00:42:29,730 --> 00:42:31,130
这对苹果来说更为紧迫

1283
00:42:31,130 --> 00:42:33,630
比其他超大规模公司更严重

1284
00:42:33,630 --> 00:42:36,489
但我确实认为它们下跌是有原因的

1285
00:42:36,489 --> 00:42:37,610
我认为作为整体

1286
00:42:37,610 --> 00:42:38,789
我认为这始终具有挑战性

1287
00:42:38,789 --> 00:42:41,960
当公司处于投资周期时持有它们

1288
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,059
因为你无法获得运营杠杆效应

1289
00:42:44,059 --> 00:42:45,300
无法获得盈利增长

1290
00:42:45,300 --> 00:42:46,119
你所能

1291
00:42:46,119 --> 00:42:47,780
最终我们会

1292
00:42:47,780 --> 00:42:49,460
我知道我知道我们有第二个乔什

1293
00:42:49,460 --> 00:42:50,760
但最终我们会

1294
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:51,260
还有安迪

1295
00:42:51,260 --> 00:42:52,739
杰西已经多次说过

1296
00:42:52,739 --> 00:42:54,320
所有这些CEO都这么说

1297
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:55,670
他们必须投入

1298
00:42:55,670 --> 00:42:59,269
但因此你不会获得利润率扩张

1299
00:42:59,269 --> 00:43:01,449
另一方面

1300
00:43:01,449 --> 00:43:03,489
看看美光科技，看看他们的

1301
00:43:03,489 --> 00:43:05,010
他们的利润率如何

1302
00:43:05,010 --> 00:43:06,349
因为他们有这个价格

1303
00:43:06,349 --> 00:43:08,110
我完全同意你们所说的一切

1304
00:43:08,110 --> 00:43:10,539
但我要在此重申

1305
00:43:10,539 --> 00:43:13,059
最终我不确定

1306
00:43:13,059 --> 00:43:17,920
是结束周期还是引发下行

1307
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:22,809
最终美光是通过提价实现这一切的

1308
00:43:22,809 --> 00:43:24,250
而非提高销量

1309
00:43:24,250 --> 00:43:25,070
正如你所说

1310
00:43:25,070 --> 00:43:25,809
ASP（平均销售价格）

1311
00:43:25,809 --> 00:43:27,530
我手头没有上涨的数据

1312
00:43:27,530 --> 00:43:30,230
没有人能通过提高销量替代

1313
00:43:30,230 --> 00:43:31,590
因为这就是现状

1314
00:43:31,590 --> 00:43:32,369
然而

1315
00:43:32,369 --> 00:43:39,840
当定价能力变得极端时，使用该产品的客户

1316
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,019
会找到替代方案并坚持

1317
00:43:43,019 --> 00:43:45,309
我们在深度硅周期时曾经历过

1318
00:43:45,309 --> 00:43:47,150
突然发现

1319
00:43:47,150 --> 00:43:48,110
哦等等

1320
00:43:48,110 --> 00:43:51,449
实际上会出现能更快完成的竞品

1321
00:43:51,449 --> 00:43:53,230
更便宜的技术是否存在

1322
00:43:53,230 --> 00:43:54,849
他们是不是在作弊

1323
00:43:54,849 --> 00:43:56,389
或许在窃取技术

1324
00:43:56,389 --> 00:43:58,670
但无论如何

1325
00:43:58,670 --> 00:44:00,750
这才是最终影响我的因素

1326
00:44:00,750 --> 00:44:03,050
我不认为这会在本季度发生

1327
00:44:03,050 --> 00:44:04,329
现在这是一个关键点

1328
00:44:04,329 --> 00:44:05,510
市值三千亿美元的公司

1329
00:44:05,510 --> 00:44:07,608
是全国第九大股票

1330
00:44:07,608 --> 00:44:08,708
比礼来公司更大

1331
00:44:08,708 --> 00:44:09,329
伯克希尔

1332
00:44:09,329 --> 00:44:09,889
哈撒韦

1333
00:44:09,889 --> 00:44:10,568
沃尔玛

1334
00:44:10,568 --> 00:44:10,969
J.P.

1335
00:44:10,969 --> 00:44:11,489
摩根

1336
00:44:11,489 --> 00:44:13,048
AMD和万事达

1337
00:44:13,048 --> 00:44:14,708
他们完成了整个过程

1338
00:44:14,708 --> 00:44:17,719
他们完全依靠提价完成

1339
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:19,480
肯定有极限

1340
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:24,639
客户最终会找到替代方案减少内存使用

1341
00:44:24,639 --> 00:44:25,860
当这种情况发生时

1342
00:44:25,860 --> 00:44:27,440
这就是现状

1343
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:27,920
是的

1344
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:29,039
他百分之百正确

1345
00:44:29,039 --> 00:44:30,670
这意味着有多种可能结局

1346
00:44:30,670 --> 00:44:32,769
我不知道是否有时间深入讨论

1347
00:44:32,769 --> 00:44:34,030
因为我正在尝试

1348
00:44:34,030 --> 00:44:36,000
我必须把这段视频控制在一小时以内

1349
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:37,400
那我们就先听汤姆·李的观点

1350
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:38,780
然后看看我们目前的情况如何

1351
00:44:38,780 --> 00:44:39,400
关注真相

1352
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:40,079
社会安息

1353
00:44:40,079 --> 00:44:40,719
谢谢安息

1354
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:41,329
闲聊

1355
00:44:41,329 --> 00:44:42,170
现在介绍我们的专家团

1356
00:44:42,170 --> 00:44:44,570
有我们节目九点档和CNBC的特约嘉宾

1357
00:44:44,570 --> 00:44:45,719
有趣睿智的汤姆·李

1358
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:46,320
新锐观点

1359
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,360
财富的卡梅隆·道森欢迎你们两位

1360
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:48,800
先请汤米

1361
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:50,039
我本来打算从别处开始

1362
00:44:50,039 --> 00:44:52,139
但鉴于安梅的报道

1363
00:44:52,139 --> 00:44:57,150
又一次提醒我们中东局势仍在持续

1364
00:44:57,150 --> 00:44:59,170
伊朗远未结束

1365
00:44:59,329 --> 00:45:01,210
我同意这可能

1366
00:45:01,210 --> 00:45:05,349
显然这表明油价可能短期内大幅下跌

1367
00:45:05,349 --> 00:45:11,650
但有趣的是油价涨幅远不及预期

1368
00:45:11,650 --> 00:45:14,030
所以可能超跌了

1369
00:45:14,030 --> 00:45:18,380
从结构上看这场战争

1370
00:45:18,380 --> 00:45:20,019
对美国来说问题反而更小

1371
00:45:20,019 --> 00:45:20,820
股市

1372
00:45:20,820 --> 00:45:21,400
是的

1373
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,980
是否仍然影响较小

1374
00:45:22,980 --> 00:45:27,139
有没有一个临界点让我们认为已达成协议

1375
00:45:27,139 --> 00:45:30,059
却又要再向前一步

1376
00:45:30,059 --> 00:45:30,900
两步退后

1377
00:45:30,900 --> 00:45:31,179
没错

1378
00:45:31,179 --> 00:45:36,059
需要关注的指标是美国汽油价格

1379
00:45:36,059 --> 00:45:39,519
因为这是消费者支付的终端价格

1380
00:45:39,519 --> 00:45:43,360
这可能影响家庭消费预测

1381
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:43,960
当然

1382
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,440
分析师一直可以忽略这个问题

1383
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:49,460
因为高油价被AI话题掩盖

1384
00:45:49,460 --> 00:45:53,099
但如果油价持续高位

1385
00:45:53,099 --> 00:45:57,300
我们可能开始讨论下调GDP预测

1386
00:45:57,300 --> 00:45:59,900
因为它侵蚀了消费支出

1387
00:45:59,900 --> 00:46:02,659
很多人希望汽油价格下跌

1388
00:46:02,659 --> 00:46:05,099
能让消费支出重新回升

1389
00:46:05,099 --> 00:46:08,809
但实际工资仍为负数

1390
00:46:08,809 --> 00:46:10,449
如果油价保持高位

1391
00:46:10,449 --> 00:46:11,659
通胀仍居高不下

1392
00:46:11,659 --> 00:46:12,719
实际工资为负

1393
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:14,300
这暗示增长可能放缓

1394
00:46:14,300 --> 00:46:16,860
让我们回到原本要讨论的话题

1395
00:46:16,860 --> 00:46:18,139
你今天上调了目标价

1396
00:46:18,139 --> 00:46:19,139
不是在标普指数上吗

1397
00:46:19,139 --> 00:46:20,260
我们做到了八千点

1398
00:46:20,260 --> 00:46:21,019
是的

1399
00:46:21,019 --> 00:46:23,820
为什么它真的是番茄酱

1400
00:46:23,820 --> 00:46:26,159
你知道年初我们有七千七百

1401
00:46:26,159 --> 00:46:29,349
但标普2027年收益是三百五十

1402
00:46:29,349 --> 00:46:31,050
我们现在达到四百

1403
00:46:31,050 --> 00:46:33,829
我们用较低倍数计算到八千

1404
00:46:33,829 --> 00:46:34,289
当你说到

1405
00:46:34,289 --> 00:46:35,250
我们现在是四百

1406
00:46:35,250 --> 00:46:35,849
这正是你

1407
00:46:35,849 --> 00:46:36,190
是的

1408
00:46:36,190 --> 00:46:37,550
这是趣味策略收益

1409
00:46:37,550 --> 00:46:40,190
共识预期大致相同

1410
00:46:40,190 --> 00:46:40,989
三百五十

1411
00:46:40,989 --> 00:46:42,949
三百五十二左右

1412
00:46:42,949 --> 00:46:44,469
我们正在纳入共识

1413
00:46:44,469 --> 00:46:46,210
三百五十二到四百

1414
00:46:46,210 --> 00:46:47,030
抱歉

1415
00:46:47,030 --> 00:46:49,750
之前是三百五十二现在三百九十八

1416
00:46:49,750 --> 00:46:50,519
所以我们

1417
00:46:50,519 --> 00:46:52,920
与共识基本一致

1418
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:57,000
但今年末我们应用二十倍市盈率

1419
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:58,639
从而达到八千

1420
00:46:58,639 --> 00:47:00,329
通过收益实现

1421
00:47:00,329 --> 00:47:00,889
并非

1422
00:47:00,889 --> 00:47:02,530
尚未扩大倍数

1423
00:47:02,530 --> 00:47:03,190
没错

1424
00:47:03,190 --> 00:47:05,849
倍数我认为本应扩大

1425
00:47:05,849 --> 00:47:07,360
因为我们经历了太多黑天鹅事件

1426
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,840
但当前等权重反而低于五年前

1427
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:10,800
这样就能达成目标

1428
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:14,400
因为市场内部似乎在争夺什么

1429
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,639
我们正经历从巨型企业股的轮动

1430
00:47:16,639 --> 00:47:18,159
正如我刚和

1431
00:47:18,159 --> 00:47:18,920
丹·伊夫斯

1432
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:20,380
这里到底发生了什么

1433
00:47:20,380 --> 00:47:20,820
嗯

1434
00:47:20,820 --> 00:47:22,219
我认为到本页结尾

1435
00:47:22,219 --> 00:47:23,099
我们

1436
00:47:23,099 --> 00:47:23,619
我们

1437
00:47:23,619 --> 00:47:26,260
近期面临大量动荡

1438
00:47:26,260 --> 00:47:27,159
因为我们有通胀

1439
00:47:27,159 --> 00:47:29,400
今日的PC数据提示我们

1440
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:30,179
可能这个数字

1441
00:47:30,179 --> 00:47:31,599
通胀峰值水平

1442
00:47:31,599 --> 00:47:33,239
但依然很高

1443
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,340
还有战争和短缺问题

1444
00:47:36,340 --> 00:47:38,380
当然还有美联储

1445
00:47:38,380 --> 00:47:40,619
市场将测试新美联储政策

1446
00:47:40,619 --> 00:47:42,210
尤其是新政策出台时

1447
00:47:42,210 --> 00:47:46,210
同时这些大规模IPO锁定期结束

1448
00:47:46,210 --> 00:47:48,599
所以我认为市场需要消化很多信息

1449
00:47:48,599 --> 00:47:51,860
但到年底我们将看到二零二七年的情况

1450
00:47:51,860 --> 00:47:53,719
这其中很多是周年纪念事件

1451
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:54,170
而且

1452
00:47:54,170 --> 00:47:55,210
而且我认为

1453
00:47:55,210 --> 00:47:58,170
这将是本世纪最大的牛市启动

1454
00:47:58,170 --> 00:47:58,670
哇

1455
00:47:58,670 --> 00:47:59,030
好的

1456
00:47:59,030 --> 00:48:00,789
哇哦

1457
00:48:00,789 --> 00:48:04,670
在本世纪最大牛市中的一次重要表态

1458
00:48:05,190 --> 00:48:05,630
好的

1459
00:48:05,630 --> 00:48:08,269
关于锁定期这点很重要

1460
00:48:08,269 --> 00:48:09,150
他提到的内容

1461
00:48:09,150 --> 00:48:12,309
没错，我们具体说的就是房间里的皮带

1462
00:48:12,309 --> 00:48:13,519
SpaceX对吧

1463
00:48:15,650 --> 00:48:20,610
未来几个月SpaceX会有大量股份解禁

1464
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:25,639
人们会卖出这些股份

1465
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,059
短期内可能对SpaceX不利

1466
00:48:29,059 --> 00:48:30,980
在接下来的6到12个月内

1467
00:48:30,980 --> 00:48:34,949
但这些资金会流向其他地方

1468
00:48:34,949 --> 00:48:35,690
如果你要卖出

1469
00:48:35,690 --> 00:48:36,570
你不会只是

1470
00:48:36,570 --> 00:48:37,750
你会怎么处理这笔钱

1471
00:48:37,750 --> 00:48:38,230
你知道的

1472
00:48:38,230 --> 00:48:42,360
假设你在SpaceX有持仓

1473
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:46,619
比如某基金持有SpaceX价值两亿美元的股份

1474
00:48:46,619 --> 00:48:48,780
他们打算兑现一半利润

1475
00:48:48,780 --> 00:48:51,760
所以要卖出一亿美元的SpaceX股票

1476
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:52,159
好的

1477
00:48:52,159 --> 00:48:53,659
这对SpaceX股票不利

1478
00:48:53,659 --> 00:48:58,670
但一亿美元资金会流向其他地方

1479
00:48:58,670 --> 00:49:00,820
可能流入Meta股票

1480
00:49:00,820 --> 00:49:02,219
可能流入亚马逊股票

1481
00:49:02,219 --> 00:49:04,750
可能投资到其他领域

1482
00:49:04,750 --> 00:49:05,989
也许他们会购买

1483
00:49:05,989 --> 00:49:07,789
我不知道会用这笔钱买很多国债

1484
00:49:07,789 --> 00:49:10,090
购买国债就像处理这些资金

1485
00:49:10,090 --> 00:49:12,050
然后乘以

1486
00:49:12,050 --> 00:49:13,530
现在很多人

1487
00:49:13,530 --> 00:49:14,929
有些人不会卖出

1488
00:49:14,929 --> 00:49:15,889
他们会

1489
00:49:15,889 --> 00:49:17,778
我只

1490
00:49:18,018 --> 00:49:20,559
你知道我打算长期持有SpaceX

1491
00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:21,418
所以我们不会卖出

1492
00:49:21,418 --> 00:49:21,998
好的

1493
00:49:21,998 --> 00:49:25,458
但未来6到12个月内会有大量内部人和其他人

1494
00:49:25,458 --> 00:49:27,938
会卖出股份

1495
00:49:27,938 --> 00:49:30,358
这些资金将流入市场其他部分

1496
00:49:30,358 --> 00:49:33,289
这就是需要留意的地方

1497
00:49:33,289 --> 00:49:35,730
没错，我认为应该考虑这一点

1498
00:49:35,730 --> 00:49:37,369
虽然我们已经到了七十三点五的比例

1499
00:49:37,369 --> 00:49:38,449
我们现在就定在这里吧

1500
00:49:38,449 --> 00:49:39,010
顺便说一句

1501
00:49:39,010 --> 00:49:40,750
当人类中心主义公司上市时

1502
00:49:40,750 --> 00:49:42,409
当OpenAI上市时

1503
00:49:42,409 --> 00:49:45,530
你知道那些公司都会经历锁定期

1504
00:49:45,530 --> 00:49:46,449
但这并不是

1505
00:49:46,449 --> 00:49:48,829
我说这未必是这些股票的最佳选择

1506
00:49:48,829 --> 00:49:49,809
在那个特定时期

1507
00:49:49,809 --> 00:49:51,750
但这将释放大量资金

1508
00:49:51,750 --> 00:49:54,260
这些资金将流向其他地方

1509
00:49:54,260 --> 00:49:56,699
你一直在强调

1510
00:49:56,699 --> 00:49:58,460
即使你已经将估值提升到八千点

1511
00:49:58,460 --> 00:50:02,418
你预计今年夏季会出现大幅回调

1512
00:50:02,418 --> 00:50:06,498
是的，随后将迎来强劲反弹重返八千点

1513
00:50:06,498 --> 00:50:07,349
我说

1514
00:50:07,349 --> 00:50:09,150
你必须要有强劲反弹

1515
00:50:09,150 --> 00:50:11,989
无论你如何谈论达到八千点

1516
00:50:11,989 --> 00:50:15,730
如果你真的预期出现大幅修正

1517
00:50:15,730 --> 00:50:17,559
当你在这里时

1518
00:50:17,559 --> 00:50:18,539
没错

1519
00:50:18,539 --> 00:50:19,199
所以斯科特

1520
00:50:19,199 --> 00:50:19,400
是的

1521
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:20,559
我认为会出现回撤

1522
00:50:20,559 --> 00:50:20,880
你知道的

1523
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,659
当前保证金债务已增长55%

1524
00:50:23,659 --> 00:50:24,579
同比而言

1525
00:50:24,579 --> 00:50:28,329
这是近75年来第五高水平

1526
00:50:28,329 --> 00:50:32,389
这通常与调整投机行为相关

1527
00:50:32,389 --> 00:50:35,358
因此我认为这是第四个回撤原因

1528
00:50:35,358 --> 00:50:38,759
但我认为明年将出现大幅反弹的原因在于

1529
00:50:38,759 --> 00:50:44,010
丹提到的超大规模企业将变现其构建成果

1530
00:50:44,010 --> 00:50:48,420
这将为使用AI的美国人创造繁荣

1531
00:50:48,420 --> 00:50:48,719
我认为

1532
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:51,639
这将真正带来实际的通缩

1533
00:50:51,639 --> 00:50:52,559
并伴随大量增长

1534
00:50:52,559 --> 00:50:55,929
这也是我们年底有望突破八千点的原因

1535
00:50:57,250 --> 00:50:58,769
希望他们能正确变现

1536
00:50:58,769 --> 00:51:00,489
市场目前并不认同这一点

1537
00:51:00,489 --> 00:51:04,480
最令人震惊的事实是罗素2000指数今年表现超越

1538
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,469
标普500指数27个百分点

1539
00:51:07,469 --> 00:51:09,750
而我们看到的最被低估的现象

1540
00:51:09,750 --> 00:51:11,829
来自标普500的估值

1541
00:51:11,829 --> 00:51:14,840
市场今日下跌三成

1542
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,239
相比去年十月峰值

1543
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:21,820
因为标普500市盈率从35倍降至25倍

1544
00:51:21,820 --> 00:51:24,800
市场实际上在回避

1545
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:25,219
啊

1546
00:51:25,219 --> 00:51:28,510
这些公司自由现金流的崩溃

1547
00:51:28,510 --> 00:51:31,550
自由现金流下降70%至100%

1548
00:51:31,550 --> 00:51:33,429
加上还有，我觉得同意汤姆的观点

1549
00:51:33,429 --> 00:51:36,429
这完全取决于你是否打算商业化

1550
00:51:36,429 --> 00:51:39,699
你看到运营收入大幅增长的拐点了吗

1551
00:51:39,699 --> 00:51:41,079
如果你看不到这一点

1552
00:51:41,079 --> 00:51:43,860
这可能对未来的盈利构成问题

1553
00:51:43,860 --> 00:51:46,769
听起来你怀疑我们会这样

1554
00:51:47,989 --> 00:51:48,909
我哪有资格评判

1555
00:51:48,909 --> 00:51:50,509
当这些投资开始见效时

1556
00:51:50,509 --> 00:51:53,148
我们至今还没看到明显证据

1557
00:51:53,148 --> 00:51:59,139
我认为明年可能出现亚马逊和谷歌盈利下滑的情况

1558
00:51:59,139 --> 00:52:00,699
这要追溯到第一季度

1559
00:52:00,699 --> 00:52:02,679
他们获得了一笔巨额一次性收益

1560
00:52:02,679 --> 00:52:04,599
在资产重估过程中

1561
00:52:04,599 --> 00:52:06,000
在他们的Anthropic持股方面

1562
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,340
这占了运营收入的一半

1563
00:52:08,340 --> 00:52:10,599
本季度可能还会出现类似收益

1564
00:52:10,599 --> 00:52:12,420
但可能延续到第三季度

1565
00:52:12,420 --> 00:52:15,800
未来可能出现持续稳定的运营增长

1566
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:18,179
但报告中的每股收益实际下降

1567
00:52:18,179 --> 00:52:20,840
你对八千点位的看法如何

1568
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:22,239
我认为完全有可能

1569
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:26,139
当前的上升趋势确实值得重视

1570
00:52:26,139 --> 00:52:30,659
盈利仍处于上升趋势应属正常

1571
00:52:30,659 --> 00:52:35,059
今年以来前瞻盈利修正已上涨18%

1572
00:52:35,059 --> 00:52:37,188
要达到八千点

1573
00:52:37,188 --> 00:52:39,028
这一趋势必须持续

1574
00:52:39,028 --> 00:52:42,730
需看到盈利预期持续上行

1575
00:52:42,730 --> 00:52:43,650
第三季度

1576
00:52:43,650 --> 00:52:44,610
第二季度财报

1577
00:52:44,610 --> 00:52:46,170
季报季将在三周后开启

1578
00:52:46,170 --> 00:52:47,469
标准更高了

1579
00:52:47,469 --> 00:52:48,929
针对22年

1580
00:52:48,929 --> 00:52:49,449
开始吧

1581
00:52:49,449 --> 00:52:49,849
宝贝

1582
00:52:49,849 --> 00:52:50,690
三周时间

1583
00:52:50,690 --> 00:52:52,309
新一轮财报季即将来临

1584
00:52:52,309 --> 00:52:52,909
开始吧

1585
00:52:52,909 --> 00:52:53,650
我充满期待

1586
00:52:53,650 --> 00:52:55,099
我真兴奋啊

1587
00:52:55,099 --> 00:52:56,300
太刺激了

1588
00:52:56,300 --> 00:52:57,800
我们喜欢这种刺激

1589
00:52:57,800 --> 00:52:58,480
我喜欢

1590
00:52:58,480 --> 00:52:58,760
我喜欢

1591
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:00,480
当焦点在盈利上时

1592
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:01,539
这让我特别开心

1593
00:53:01,539 --> 00:53:02,500
你知道的

1594
00:53:02,500 --> 00:53:04,059
当关注其他方面时

1595
00:53:04,059 --> 00:53:04,599
你知道的

1596
00:53:04,599 --> 00:53:05,519
地缘政治

1597
00:53:05,519 --> 00:53:07,829
以及这个国家发生的事

1598
00:53:07,829 --> 00:53:10,630
政治家们到底在做什么啊

1599
00:53:10,630 --> 00:53:12,030
当我们谈论收益时

1600
00:53:14,230 --> 00:53:15,050
现在谈论收益

1601
00:53:15,050 --> 00:53:17,289
我们在讨论季度百分比增长

1602
00:53:17,289 --> 00:53:18,230
针对第二季度

1603
00:53:18,230 --> 00:53:19,510
我们进入第一季度时

1604
00:53:19,510 --> 00:53:20,489
预期增长9%

1605
00:53:20,489 --> 00:53:21,349
我们实现了双9%

1606
00:53:21,349 --> 00:53:22,539
我们必须给予肯定

1607
00:53:22,539 --> 00:53:23,480
标杆已经提升

1608
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:26,360
这不是巨盘股回调的核心信息

1609
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:30,920
我们已达到对这些公司支出的峰值容忍度

1610
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,800
是的，我认为这是调整

1611
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:33,818
你知道这

1612
00:53:33,818 --> 00:53:36,179
他们从轻资产转向重资产

1613
00:53:36,179 --> 00:53:38,298
就像他们增重了很多

1614
00:53:38,298 --> 00:53:40,679
我们正在怀疑它们是否仍有吸引力

1615
00:53:40,679 --> 00:53:42,699
但汤姆·李

1616
00:53:42,699 --> 00:53:43,918
别不尊重人

1617
00:53:43,918 --> 00:53:48,318
听着，每位使用AI创收的用户

1618
00:53:48,318 --> 00:53:51,639
都会更愿意为服务付费

1619
00:53:51,639 --> 00:53:53,619
因此我认为存在变现可能

1620
00:53:53,619 --> 00:53:55,119
我们现在才开始看到效果

1621
00:53:55,119 --> 00:53:55,980
等两秒钟

1622
00:53:55,980 --> 00:53:57,579
因为我想深入金融板块

1623
00:53:57,579 --> 00:53:58,940
今天表现相当不错

1624
00:53:58,940 --> 00:54:00,699
这段时间表现优异

1625
00:54:00,699 --> 00:54:01,579
摩根士丹利

1626
00:54:01,579 --> 00:54:03,300
新任CEO G晋升前台

1627
00:54:03,300 --> 00:54:04,559
但莱斯莉·皮克

1628
00:54:04,559 --> 00:54:05,900
凯尔·金融

1629
00:54:05,900 --> 00:54:06,460
是的

1630
00:54:06,460 --> 00:54:06,840
哦

1631
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:07,880
我们是否看好它们

1632
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:10,900
这是少数实现正收益的板块

1633
00:54:10,900 --> 00:54:12,739
今年除科技外的修正数据

1634
00:54:12,739 --> 00:54:15,820
行业布局异常轻盈

1635
00:54:15,820 --> 00:54:21,000
德意志银行指出金融板块仓位低于十分位

1636
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,159
无人在此布局

1637
00:54:22,159 --> 00:54:23,719
你看到修正数据上调

1638
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:24,039
现在

1639
00:54:24,039 --> 00:54:25,500
分化现象显著

1640
00:54:25,500 --> 00:54:27,219
银行表现优异

1641
00:54:27,219 --> 00:54:29,980
但资产管理公司仍疲软

1642
00:54:29,980 --> 00:54:33,599
黑石和蓝湾等创历史新低

1643
00:54:33,599 --> 00:54:34,219
等等

1644
00:54:34,219 --> 00:54:37,119
部分私有信贷担忧仍存

1645
00:54:37,119 --> 00:54:39,460
必须谨慎选择标的

1646
00:54:39,460 --> 00:54:43,150
银行和投行仍是优选

1647
00:54:43,150 --> 00:54:44,269
让我和你谈谈

1648
00:54:44,269 --> 00:54:46,010
加密货币在我放手之前

1649
00:54:46,010 --> 00:54:48,690
比特币从高点已腰斩

1650
00:54:48,690 --> 00:54:49,150
是啊

1651
00:54:49,150 --> 00:54:50,380
这坏了

1652
00:54:50,380 --> 00:54:51,179
你还在吗

1653
00:54:52,420 --> 00:54:55,300
你怎么今天依然如此看涨

1654
00:54:55,300 --> 00:54:57,460
你还有十个钉子吗

1655
00:54:57,460 --> 00:54:57,619
这

1656
00:54:57,619 --> 00:54:58,059
并非如此

1657
00:54:58,059 --> 00:54:59,099
这会带来改变

1658
00:54:59,099 --> 00:54:59,420
嗯

1659
00:54:59,420 --> 00:55:01,139
我得开始穿橙色衣服

1660
00:55:01,139 --> 00:55:02,909
对啊嗯

1661
00:55:04,050 --> 00:55:04,510
啊

1662
00:55:04,510 --> 00:55:05,889
汤姆十年前

1663
00:55:05,889 --> 00:55:07,210
当我们首次报道比特币时

1664
00:55:07,210 --> 00:55:08,929
建议配置1%的仓位

1665
00:55:13,778 --> 00:55:16,059
加密货币才是更相关的故事

1666
00:55:16,059 --> 00:55:16,639
昨天

1667
00:55:16,639 --> 00:55:19,858
我在纽约数字资产峰会ICE

1668
00:55:19,858 --> 00:55:23,869
各大银行正采用代币化和加密基础设施

1669
00:55:23,869 --> 00:55:26,550
以更新银行的老旧技术栈

1670
00:55:26,550 --> 00:55:28,510
这对他们的未来至关重要

1671
00:55:28,510 --> 00:55:31,489
我们了解许多AI公司

1672
00:55:31,489 --> 00:55:34,550
工程师周末研究加密技术

1673
00:55:34,550 --> 00:55:36,989
因为他们知道未来要管理

1674
00:55:36,989 --> 00:55:37,690
AI代理

1675
00:55:37,690 --> 00:55:39,599
这些可能比我们更富有

1676
00:55:39,599 --> 00:55:42,659
需通过去中心化系统保持主权

1677
00:55:42,659 --> 00:55:47,719
加密仍是AI与金融的未来核心

1678
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:51,260
这可能是汤姆最重大预测

1679
00:55:51,260 --> 00:55:53,880
他之前也提出过一些观点

1680
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:56,119
AI代理可能比我们更富有

1681
00:55:58,590 --> 00:56:00,250
我这辈子从未听过

1682
00:56:00,250 --> 00:56:02,550
有人发表此评论

1683
00:56:02,550 --> 00:56:04,110
但有人必须说

1684
00:56:04,110 --> 00:56:05,679
必须有人首提此观点，汤姆·李

1685
00:56:05,679 --> 00:56:08,019
但这个故事曾受阻

1686
00:56:08,019 --> 00:56:10,840
因AI与记忆更吸引人

1687
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,190
毫无疑问

1688
00:56:13,349 --> 00:56:16,530
今日比特币如同千美元时

1689
00:56:16,530 --> 00:56:17,630
被误解

1690
00:56:18,630 --> 00:56:22,639
尤其是以太坊等合约平台

1691
00:56:22,639 --> 00:56:24,480
为何持续被误解

1692
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:25,679
如果倡导者

1693
00:56:25,679 --> 00:56:27,079
像你继续出现

1694
00:56:27,079 --> 00:56:30,869
向人们解释为何如此看涨

1695
00:56:30,869 --> 00:56:32,269
如果发生...

1696
00:56:32,269 --> 00:56:32,769
我是说

1697
00:56:37,978 --> 00:56:41,429
零售市场已经不再对此感兴趣了

1698
00:56:41,429 --> 00:56:45,530
他们更关注spacex、openai、anthropic和micron等公司

1699
00:56:45,530 --> 00:56:48,369
还不知道未来还会出现什么新事物

1700
00:56:48,369 --> 00:56:48,750
嗯

1701
00:56:48,750 --> 00:56:49,309
这确实啊

1702
00:56:49,309 --> 00:56:50,550
你提出了一个非常重要的观点

1703
00:56:50,550 --> 00:56:51,789
今天的年轻人

1704
00:56:51,789 --> 00:56:54,889
未来将通过应用程序进行银行操作

1705
00:56:54,889 --> 00:56:56,469
他们将会进行股票交易

1706
00:56:56,469 --> 00:56:58,639
正如罗宾所指出的

1707
00:56:58,639 --> 00:57:00,420
你将在加密货币平台上进行交易

1708
00:57:00,420 --> 00:57:01,659
这是一只代币化股票

1709
00:57:01,659 --> 00:57:02,039
我的意思是

1710
00:57:02,039 --> 00:57:04,300
看看周末的原油交易发生了什么

1711
00:57:04,300 --> 00:57:06,320
这一切都使用了加密货币基础设施

1712
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,239
加密货币有点难以理解

1713
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,420
人们也不愿处理钱包问题

1714
00:57:11,420 --> 00:57:15,460
但年轻一代作为下一代用户是主要采用者

1715
00:57:15,460 --> 00:57:16,480
他们现在处于什么位置

1716
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:17,239
不过

1717
00:57:17,239 --> 00:57:17,679
好吧

1718
00:57:17,679 --> 00:57:18,860
他们并不富裕

1719
00:57:18,860 --> 00:57:21,239
我完全同意你的观点

1720
00:57:21,239 --> 00:57:22,460
存在FOMO（错失恐惧症）

1721
00:57:22,460 --> 00:57:25,510
因为购买内存股更容易

1722
00:57:25,510 --> 00:57:27,789
但毫无疑问

1723
00:57:27,789 --> 00:57:28,690
在十二个月后

1724
00:57:28,690 --> 00:57:32,179
我们将称加密货币是AI的下游故事

1725
00:57:32,179 --> 00:57:35,528
就像内存股在2024年成为过去式

1726
00:57:35,528 --> 00:57:36,588
在2025年

1727
00:57:36,588 --> 00:57:38,028
没错他们曾陷入困境

1728
00:57:38,028 --> 00:57:41,079
他们毫无进展而2026年发生了什么

1729
00:57:41,079 --> 00:57:42,998
它们突然暴涨是有原因的

1730
00:57:42,998 --> 00:57:50,900
尽管我们正处于AI和基础设施的历史建设期

1731
00:57:50,900 --> 00:57:51,820
你说得对

1732
00:57:51,820 --> 00:57:53,858
那个转折点在哪里

1733
00:57:53,858 --> 00:57:55,139
如果你愿意的话斯科特

1734
00:57:55,139 --> 00:57:56,639
其实正在发生

1735
00:57:56,639 --> 00:57:57,378
例如

1736
00:57:57,378 --> 00:58:00,760
贝莱德正在代币化几乎所有资产

1737
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,750
几乎所有资产都将建立在加密货币基础设施上

1738
00:58:03,750 --> 00:58:05,050
这更高效

1739
00:58:05,050 --> 00:58:06,369
提供最终确认

1740
00:58:06,369 --> 00:58:08,150
并实现全天候交易

1741
00:58:08,150 --> 00:58:09,650
这就是所谓的可组合性

1742
00:58:09,650 --> 00:58:12,730
正在将金融资产转化为软件

1743
00:58:12,730 --> 00:58:13,429
这正在发生

1744
00:58:13,429 --> 00:58:14,909
不过

1745
00:58:14,909 --> 00:58:17,010
这是一个缓慢积累然后突然爆发的过程

1746
00:58:17,010 --> 00:58:19,409
对我来说已经过去了二十六年

1747
00:58:19,409 --> 00:58:20,690
这里遭遇了重大挫折

1748
00:58:20,690 --> 00:58:21,389
这令人失望

1749
00:58:21,389 --> 00:58:23,610
但对我来说根本性进展仍在

1750
00:58:23,610 --> 00:58:24,130
好的汤姆

1751
00:58:24,130 --> 00:58:24,610
谢谢

1752
00:58:24,610 --> 00:58:25,130
非常感谢

1753
00:58:25,130 --> 00:58:25,610
谢谢卡梅隆

1754
00:58:25,610 --> 00:58:26,489
我们很快联系你们

1755
00:58:26,489 --> 00:58:26,980
我的意思是

1756
00:58:26,980 --> 00:58:28,139
简单来说就是

1757
00:58:28,139 --> 00:58:29,699
关于比特币以太坊

1758
00:58:29,699 --> 00:58:30,179
这类事物

1759
00:58:30,179 --> 00:58:30,460
它们并不

1760
00:58:30,460 --> 00:58:31,699
它们不基于基本面

1761
00:58:31,699 --> 00:58:32,519
它们处于

1762
00:58:32,519 --> 00:58:34,539
当市场情绪积极时

1763
00:58:34,539 --> 00:58:36,659
当看到价格动量时

1764
00:58:36,659 --> 00:58:38,559
你会获得更多积极情绪

1765
00:58:38,559 --> 00:58:40,590
然后更多人变得积极

1766
00:58:40,590 --> 00:58:41,769
然后买入买入再买入

1767
00:58:41,769 --> 00:58:42,989
就像一场狂热

1768
00:58:42,989 --> 00:58:44,090
对吧嗯

1769
00:58:44,090 --> 00:58:44,630
你知道的

1770
00:58:44,630 --> 00:58:45,849
它们从未基于基本面

1771
00:58:45,849 --> 00:58:46,869
现在仍然如此

1772
00:58:46,869 --> 00:58:49,269
关于市场走势有很多观点

1773
00:58:49,269 --> 00:58:53,110
专注于未来几年想持有的个股

1774
00:58:53,110 --> 00:58:54,610
构建优质投资组合

1775
00:58:54,610 --> 00:58:56,920
Gbd一二三宝贝

1776
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:57,639
呃

1777
00:58:57,639 --> 00:58:58,320
你知道的

1778
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:00,789
短期就是短期

1779
00:59:00,789 --> 00:59:01,110
好的

1780
00:59:01,110 --> 00:59:01,510
好的

1781
00:59:01,510 --> 00:59:01,670
各位

1782
00:59:01,670 --> 00:59:03,909
想要获取所有我的优质课程大纲

1783
00:59:03,909 --> 00:59:05,710
想要加入我的私人Discord聊天群

1784
00:59:05,710 --> 00:59:08,199
想要获取独家每周视频

1785
00:59:08,199 --> 00:59:08,780
看我的操作

1786
00:59:08,780 --> 00:59:10,699
我打造的优质投资组合等

1787
00:59:10,699 --> 00:59:13,599
今天下方置顶评论可见

1788
00:59:13,599 --> 00:59:14,139
呃

1789
00:59:14,139 --> 00:59:15,278
我们只剩不到四

1790
00:59:15,278 --> 00:59:18,840
还剩八小时申请加入

1791
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:19,159
好的

1792
00:59:19,159 --> 00:59:19,559
好的

1793
00:59:19,559 --> 00:59:19,800
各位

1794
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:21,480
衷心祝福大家，祝您有美好的一天

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