【视野环球财经】20260625美股 MU业绩爆表，峰值预测在哪？四大科技花钱挨揍，到底还有没有王法了？

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年6月25号

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周四晚上的8.35分

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昨天啊非常的抱歉啊

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外出办事来不及赶回来做节目

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所以呢昨天在美东的08:30左右啊

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发了一个社区帖子

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通知告知大家昨天是停更一次

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不要再等了

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呃可能有不少的朋友没有收到YOUTUBE的通知推送啊

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让大家久等了呃

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以后呢如果在正常时间段

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大家没有看到发布更新的

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请大家自行前往频道的首页社区啊

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就是那个社区community那个地方的

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去看一看我有没有发这个停更通知

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或者其他的一些通知啊

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另外呢再次提醒大家

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我没有抖音小红书

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B站等平台的账号啊

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都不是我发的啊

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都属于盗版和搬运视频

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我也没有各种微信群

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电报群

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discord群啊

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请大家呢在这些平台如果看到我的账号呃

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就知道都是假的

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请大家帮忙举报啊

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谨防上当受骗

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特别是不要被拉到任何的群里去好

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那咱们讲完这个呢

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回来说行情呃

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今天四大指数啊是高开低走啊

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纳指100呢

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今天高开了差不多是2%左右

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盘中最低是下探到-0.6啊

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最终呢是收涨0.75%

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看到纳指这个走势啊

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啊让我想起来跟韩国队有点像啊

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就是韩国队世界杯他不是三场比赛吗

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首场获胜

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随后是两连败呃

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韩国股市呢现在也还在高位拉锯啊

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所以希望那两只韩国的存储股得站稳了啊

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千万不要步了韩国队的后尘

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好昨天呢美光的强劲财报啊

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是提振了市场对于内存股的乐观情绪

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所以昨天的美光是大幅上涨呃

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但与此同时呢

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实际上市场对于超大规模数据中心支出的

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这个担忧的讨论也是越来越多

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美光今天呢是有一个冲高回落啊

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后面的到尾盘的时候

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下午又被拉起来啊

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所以总体上收涨的比较多啊

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但是呢还是在前面的高点附近遇到的压力

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稍后呢会讲到关于美光的财报

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以及截止到今天为止

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美光的业绩预期的峰值会出现在什么时候啊

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这是截止到今天的数据

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等会给大家看一下

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不过呢今天的标普500啊

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我们还是要说一下上涨的个股数量还挺多的

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上涨的数量达到了305只

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只有198只下跌

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另外呢标普今天的等权重指数表现不错

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还涨了0.6%

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这个就表明了一件事儿啊

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就是市场呢实际上他并没有说集体在杀跌啊

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没有全面的撤退

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它只是在调仓换股

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至少今天是这样

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那么至于它是真调仓换方向了

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还是为了防御6月底的大波动

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这个咱们得7月初第一个星期过完之后

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也就是机构和系统资金重新配置之后

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咱们才能看到真正的方向或者叫真相

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前几天呢咱们说过

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6月底到7月初

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这两个星期市场会比较的酱油且混乱

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那现在呢咱们正处于这个时期啊

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所以呢大家有时候看到这个行情上窜下跳

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然后呢表现的乱七八糟的

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稍微的你把这个时间把握一下

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这个时间段他就是这样的好

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另外呢

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我待会儿先把几个经济数据给大家做一个更新

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然后呢会把美光的财报给大家分析一下

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包括峰值

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包括大家最近骂的比较多的对吧

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骂得比较狠的四大科技哎

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今天呢还加了一个是吧

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苹果呢也跟着一块往下跳了水

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等会儿呢把这个股票也都讲一讲

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以及我对于这四大科技啊

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这个后面的一个看法啊

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包括有一些乐观的看法

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我自己的

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因为我是微软是最大的一个持仓

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还有如果发生了坏的事情

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悲观的看法又是什么

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平常的时候好像我没有集中的讲啊

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今天我一次性等会把它给大家做个结论啊

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直接告诉大家

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那么最坏会发生什么好呃

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那么首先我把今天的几个重要经济数据

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和大家过一下

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首先是今天的5月的PCE

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5月的PC1的环比是增长了0.4%

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这个是和4月份持平

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低于预期的0.5

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同比增幅呢是4.1%

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高于预期的4%和前值的3.8%

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另外呢核心PC是环比增长了0.3%啊

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这个是符合预期的

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但是高于前值的0.2

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那么核心的同比呢是来到了呃

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核心的同比呢是这个这个这个4%呃

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呃这个啊等会儿我看看啊

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哦这里啊这里啊看岔行了

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核心的这个同比呢是3.4%啊

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这个是高于预期啊

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和高于前值和预期相符啊

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这个是呃PCE的数据

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另外呢还有一个是GDP的数据啊

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GDP的一季度的这个数据的终值是出来了呃

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上调至2.1%

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高于预期和前值的1.6%

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这里边要提一下

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其中74%的增长都归功于人工智能

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所以GDP也快等于人工智能了啊

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另外呢

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实际消费者支出增长率

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是意外下调至0.5%

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低于预期和此前的1.4%

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那么核心个人消费支出的评减指数是上涨

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0.3%

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符合预期

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好还有一个是截止到呃

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6月20号当周的初请失业

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那么这个人数呢是22.7万呃

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降到了21.5万

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低于预期的22.5万

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超出预测范围的下限

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持续申请失业救济的人数呢是从181万

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上升到了182.1万

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这个是高于预期的180万呃

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整个的就业市场其实依旧是保持稳定

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那么美联储在整个失业率上

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暂时找不到太多的话题啊

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他们还是得更多的去看通胀

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还有一个呢是今天啊关于在美国的大型银行

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通过了美联储的压力测试之后呢

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开始集体回馈股东呃

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比如有大幅提高股息的啊

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也有加码准备回购的啊

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所以说啊

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美国这几个大银行还是相当不错的对吧

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自己吃肉的同时也让股民喝上肉汤

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但是呢有吃上肉的

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他也有挨揍的

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咱们看一下谁在挨揍

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最近的这四大科技啊

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说实话啊

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包括超大规模的数据中心

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不仅花了钱还挨揍啊

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包括像甲骨文

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对不对

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你说这天底下到底还有没有王法了

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另外呢你包括像苹果

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它本身呢它是没有参加AI的军备竞赛

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没有在AI上投入那么多的资本支出

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之前的股价一直都挺好的

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对不对

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你看别人在跌的时候

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它一直自己在涨

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缓慢的往上推推推也不怎么动

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而且波动非常非常的缓慢

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结果呢现在也跟着吃了瓜烙

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那么为了应对内存暴涨带来的成本压力啊

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它是宣布上调了多个产品的价格

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股价是罕见地出现了较大的波动

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下跌6.1%

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另外呢在苹果宣布调价后的几个小时

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微软也是发布公告说

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由于关键零部件成本的持续上涨啊

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就是那个内存嘛对吧

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他说的含含糊糊的

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消费者未来购买XBOX游戏主机的时候呢

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将不得不支付更高的价格

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所以微软也跌了3%

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还有就是超大规模

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数据中心的支出压力是越来越大

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给大家看一张图表

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这张图表

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你看我们下面红色下跌的

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就是那些花钱搞数据中心的

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就是在付账单的

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那么绿色大涨的是少量的卖零件的

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目前的美国的大型科技股啊

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正面临着自2022年4月以来

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最糟糕的一个月

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也是有史以来第三糟糕的一个月

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那么有个特别恰当的比喻啊

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最近说说这个甲方和乙方

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天天几百人焦头烂额地聚在一起开大会啊

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怎么搞创新

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就是死活不挣钱

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反而呢是楼下卖煎饼的丙方挣了钱

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其实那个说归说

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笑归笑啊

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咱们今天呢我看到纽约时报的一篇报道

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说是OpenAI

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现在倾向于将IPO推迟到明年诶

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这个是什么意思呢

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呃这个就意味着啊

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他们的承销顾问可能认为

221
00:09:56,869 --> 00:09:59,950
今年不再是个好时机了

222
00:09:59,950 --> 00:10:04,000
虽然现在他们的主承销机构啊没有确定是谁啊

223
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,940
但无患无外乎就那几个大投行嘛对吧

224
00:10:06,940 --> 00:10:08,440
无非要么就是高盛啊

225
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,279
要么就是ms嘛对吧

226
00:10:10,279 --> 00:10:12,159
投行你说他们有钱不挣

227
00:10:12,159 --> 00:10:14,740
是他们慈眉善目了吗

228
00:10:14,740 --> 00:10:15,700
不是吗

229
00:10:15,700 --> 00:10:18,159
很显然是他们谨慎了啊

230
00:10:18,159 --> 00:10:22,279
所以这也是一个有趣的信号好那说到这呢

231
00:10:22,279 --> 00:10:24,080
既然内存股暴涨对吧

232
00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:25,039
业绩爆棚

233
00:10:25,039 --> 00:10:28,759
咱们看一看美光的这份业绩

234
00:10:30,639 --> 00:10:33,559
美光的是第三财季的财报

235
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,200
营收是414.6亿

236
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,828
超过预期的356.9亿

237
00:10:40,828 --> 00:10:43,208
调整后的每股收益是25.11美元

238
00:10:43,208 --> 00:10:45,720
超过市场预期的20.49

239
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,480
调整后的毛利率是84.9%

240
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,740
高于去年同期的39%

241
00:10:50,740 --> 00:10:53,779
也高于预期的81.9%

242
00:10:53,779 --> 00:10:56,269
前瞻给的非常好

243
00:10:56,269 --> 00:11:00,669
预计四季度调整后的营收是490~510E

244
00:11:00,669 --> 00:11:03,519
高于之前预期的432.4亿

245
00:11:03,519 --> 00:11:07,320
预计调整后的每股收益是30~32美元

246
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,909
高于之前预期的25.31

247
00:11:09,909 --> 00:11:13,269
预计调整后的毛利率是86%

248
00:11:13,269 --> 00:11:16,068
高于预期的83.6%

249
00:11:16,068 --> 00:11:21,428
所以当季财报和前瞻是全面超过预期

250
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:23,159
公司表示说呢

251
00:11:23,159 --> 00:11:25,049
一个已经与数据中心

252
00:11:25,049 --> 00:11:28,149
消费品和汽车市场领域的客户

253
00:11:28,149 --> 00:11:32,490
一共完成了16项供应链协议SSCA

254
00:11:32,490 --> 00:11:34,710
那么这些SSCA协议

255
00:11:34,710 --> 00:11:37,730
将加速我们业务模式的转型

256
00:11:37,730 --> 00:11:40,850
加强在技术和创新方面的合作

257
00:11:40,850 --> 00:11:44,879
并为客户提供合同规定的供应保障

258
00:11:44,879 --> 00:11:47,379
我们签署的16份HCA协议中呢

259
00:11:47,379 --> 00:11:50,200
有14份在剩余协议期限内

260
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,099
按合同规定的最低价格计算

261
00:11:53,099 --> 00:11:56,158
累计收入约1000亿美元

262
00:11:56,158 --> 00:12:00,568
那么这个SSCA协议里边包含什么呢

263
00:12:00,568 --> 00:12:04,590
通常包含了就是照付不议条款

264
00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:06,769
价格下限条款

265
00:12:06,769 --> 00:12:12,269
还有多年承销的销量销量的这个承诺呃

266
00:12:12,269 --> 00:12:14,490
那我们换个角度给大家理解就就知道了

267
00:12:14,490 --> 00:12:17,399
就是买他产品的客户

268
00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:23,470
实际上是卖出了内存产品的看跌期权

269
00:12:23,470 --> 00:12:26,549
因为它有一个价格下限嘛啊

270
00:12:26,549 --> 00:12:29,549
所以他是卖出了看跌期权

271
00:12:29,549 --> 00:12:31,850
那么至于买不买看涨期权

272
00:12:31,850 --> 00:12:33,090
那是未来

273
00:12:33,090 --> 00:12:36,730
如果比方说资本支出继续大幅增长啊

274
00:12:36,730 --> 00:12:38,669
继续大家愿意割肉啊

275
00:12:38,669 --> 00:12:40,110
为内存对吧

276
00:12:40,110 --> 00:12:42,409
大家那些大科技股继续愿意这么干

277
00:12:42,409 --> 00:12:44,429
那他还可以继续的上调

278
00:12:44,429 --> 00:12:45,669
那它价格还可以

279
00:12:45,669 --> 00:12:47,460
需求还可以继续的暴增啊

280
00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:48,820
至于买不买看涨期权

281
00:12:48,820 --> 00:12:49,899
那是后面的事啊

282
00:12:49,899 --> 00:12:52,500
内容要根据每个季度的资本支出来看

283
00:12:52,500 --> 00:12:56,179
但是呢有一个保底就是价格下限

284
00:12:56,179 --> 00:12:58,899
这个当然对于美国来的自由现金流来讲

285
00:12:58,899 --> 00:12:59,700
肯定是很好的

286
00:12:59,700 --> 00:13:03,139
因为它有一个相当于最低的一个价格保障嘛

287
00:13:03,139 --> 00:13:04,940
好那么说到这儿

288
00:13:04,940 --> 00:13:05,940
这是下限

289
00:13:05,940 --> 00:13:09,279
那么镁光的上限有没有呢

290
00:13:09,279 --> 00:13:12,840
他的上限是月球还是火星对吧

291
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:14,000
还是冥王星

292
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:14,740
海王星呢

293
00:13:14,740 --> 00:13:18,480
我们看一下市场目前的判断

294
00:13:19,779 --> 00:13:21,340
等会会讲这些股票啊

295
00:13:21,340 --> 00:13:22,100
大家别着急

296
00:13:22,100 --> 00:13:24,580
我先把美光的财报讲完

297
00:13:28,659 --> 00:13:31,200
首先给大家还是要说一下

298
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:35,269
由于它的EPS在大幅变化啊

299
00:13:35,269 --> 00:13:37,049
不光是不光是在财报之后

300
00:13:37,049 --> 00:13:40,750
甚至在财报期中它也在大幅变化啊

301
00:13:40,750 --> 00:13:42,250
我自己监测的数据库

302
00:13:42,250 --> 00:13:46,328
其实我已经没有办法给大家去进行估值的测算

303
00:13:46,328 --> 00:13:50,129
因为价格动不动就是十二十%的调整啊

304
00:13:50,129 --> 00:13:50,928
上调的也有

305
00:13:50,928 --> 00:13:51,769
下调的也有

306
00:13:51,769 --> 00:13:53,600
所以它是一个剧烈变化

307
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,120
所以我这里给大家

308
00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:59,750
截止到今天6月25号的市场共识

309
00:13:59,750 --> 00:14:01,919
预期的EPS的情况

310
00:14:01,919 --> 00:14:05,480
目前美光的财年大家记好是8月份

311
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,610
财年26年8月份截止是一个财年

312
00:14:08,610 --> 00:14:11,839
27年8月份截止是一个财年

313
00:14:11,839 --> 00:14:15,879
截止到今天市场的共识预期认为

314
00:14:15,879 --> 00:14:18,149
根据现在的资本支出的判断

315
00:14:18,149 --> 00:14:24,409
27年8月它的共识EPS在121左右

316
00:14:24,409 --> 00:14:27,539
是它的峰值预测年啊

317
00:14:27,539 --> 00:14:30,360
请记住是基于当前的资本支出的情况

318
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:34,210
以及对明年潜在的资本支出的增长的考量

319
00:14:34,210 --> 00:14:36,350
今年不是7000多亿吗

320
00:14:36,350 --> 00:14:38,568
明年不是提升到9500亿

321
00:14:38,568 --> 00:14:41,568
当然有的说能够到1.4万亿啊

322
00:14:41,568 --> 00:14:43,048
但那个时候比较小的一个概率

323
00:14:43,048 --> 00:14:44,409
有的说到1.1万亿

324
00:14:44,409 --> 00:14:47,509
但共识大概是在9000亿到1.1万亿左右

325
00:14:47,509 --> 00:14:48,629
这是明年的啊

326
00:14:48,629 --> 00:14:50,049
已经这这个27年8月

327
00:14:50,049 --> 00:14:52,828
已经考虑了明年的资本支出的增长情况

328
00:14:52,828 --> 00:14:56,629
峰值预测出现在27年8月

329
00:14:56,629 --> 00:14:58,779
也就是在一年之后

330
00:14:58,779 --> 00:15:02,860
市场呢通常前瞻6~12个月炒作股价

331
00:15:02,860 --> 00:15:04,149
请大家记得啊

332
00:15:04,149 --> 00:15:06,289
那么到28年的8月

333
00:15:06,289 --> 00:15:07,669
市场的判断是

334
00:15:07,669 --> 00:15:11,970
它的业绩应该是在27年8月的基础上微涨

335
00:15:11,970 --> 00:15:14,470
或者是小幅下降

336
00:15:14,750 --> 00:15:16,950
当然这里边我要提示一下

337
00:15:16,950 --> 00:15:19,450
通常有3年以上的预测

338
00:15:19,450 --> 00:15:22,169
远期的预测都不太准

339
00:15:22,169 --> 00:15:25,909
所以最有效的就是看一年啊

340
00:15:25,909 --> 00:15:27,549
只看前瞻一年

341
00:15:27,549 --> 00:15:28,929
因为他是最灵敏的嘛

342
00:15:28,929 --> 00:15:29,789
变化最快的

343
00:15:29,789 --> 00:15:33,649
所以27年8月这个是当前的峰值预测

344
00:15:33,649 --> 00:15:33,950
好吧

345
00:15:33,950 --> 00:15:35,110
这地方给大家说一下

346
00:15:35,110 --> 00:15:37,389
免得大家可能不知道是不是这个东西

347
00:15:37,389 --> 00:15:39,559
到底它能够怎么涨

348
00:15:39,559 --> 00:15:41,700
它的业绩到底能怎么好啊

349
00:15:41,700 --> 00:15:43,360
这个就是现在的情况

350
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,179
剩下的就看资本支出了啊

351
00:15:45,179 --> 00:15:46,940
几大科技公司到底是愿意增加

352
00:15:46,940 --> 00:15:49,059
还是会放缓增速啊

353
00:15:49,059 --> 00:15:54,328
这是相当于花钱的这个人他要考虑的问题

354
00:15:54,328 --> 00:15:56,469
好这个是镁光的情况啊

355
00:15:56,469 --> 00:15:58,668
那么从它的基本面上

356
00:15:58,668 --> 00:15:59,969
我只能提供这么多

357
00:15:59,969 --> 00:16:02,028
其他的估值就没有办法提供了啊

358
00:16:02,028 --> 00:16:03,559
原因刚才讲了好

359
00:16:03,559 --> 00:16:05,379
另外呢从技术面上来看呢

360
00:16:05,379 --> 00:16:08,059
现在的情况就是上方也没有压力嘛

361
00:16:08,059 --> 00:16:09,830
因为是一个高位

362
00:16:09,830 --> 00:16:12,629
然后下方最近的支撑在1085

363
00:16:12,629 --> 00:16:15,789
1000~1020这个区啊

364
00:16:15,789 --> 00:16:18,078
之前给大家展示过这个没有变啊

365
00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:20,019
好这个是镁光

366
00:16:20,019 --> 00:16:22,759
那么讲完了镁光之后呢

367
00:16:22,759 --> 00:16:27,078
我想说一下几个大的科技公司的走势

368
00:16:29,519 --> 00:16:32,519
苹果呢之前上方做了小的头部之后啊

369
00:16:32,519 --> 00:16:35,679
现在回撤到强支撑量265~281

370
00:16:35,679 --> 00:16:36,860
现在不是市价275吗

371
00:16:36,860 --> 00:16:38,279
已经回到了强支撑位置啊

372
00:16:38,279 --> 00:16:40,549
这个问题呢暂时就缓解很多了

373
00:16:40,549 --> 00:16:43,269
估值也回到一年以内的合理水平了

374
00:16:43,269 --> 00:16:44,639
就不像之前那么高估了

375
00:16:44,639 --> 00:16:47,379
所以呢如果你仍旧有看好苹果的

376
00:16:47,379 --> 00:16:50,279
记得去自己找下方的止跌形态啊

377
00:16:50,279 --> 00:16:51,850
强支撑位置的止跌形态

378
00:16:51,850 --> 00:16:55,840
当然越接近前瞻估值的中下限越好

379
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,179
越接近235以下越好啊

380
00:16:58,179 --> 00:16:58,820
188到两次

381
00:16:58,820 --> 00:16:59,580
235越好

382
00:16:59,580 --> 00:17:00,299
越往上呢

383
00:17:00,299 --> 00:17:02,929
你的潜在的上行空间就被限制住了

384
00:17:02,929 --> 00:17:05,009
好这是苹果

385
00:17:06,679 --> 00:17:09,719
谷歌的情况呢就相对简单一些啊

386
00:17:09,719 --> 00:17:11,078
他们311325

387
00:17:11,078 --> 00:17:14,640
这个地方今天最低的地方才去到335啊

388
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,599
才到这个支撑位置就打住了啊

389
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:18,759
这个地方是100日均附近

390
00:17:18,759 --> 00:17:21,519
所以他的情况我这里也给大家标着对吧

391
00:17:21,519 --> 00:17:23,599
基金基金长线长线的位置都写着呢啊

392
00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:25,078
看看你自己怎么做选择

393
00:17:25,078 --> 00:17:28,019
谷歌的情况在四大科技里边算比较好的

394
00:17:28,019 --> 00:17:28,299
呃

395
00:17:28,299 --> 00:17:30,559
之前375破位走弱之后呢

396
00:17:30,559 --> 00:17:32,220
这个因为我也不想减仓了

397
00:17:32,220 --> 00:17:32,819
当时讲过啊

398
00:17:32,819 --> 00:17:37,029
我说这个波动包括当时的space x的上市呃

399
00:17:37,029 --> 00:17:38,990
后来热了几天

400
00:17:38,990 --> 00:17:41,349
然后价格呢最近几天是在横盘

401
00:17:41,349 --> 00:17:43,400
所以他的表现呢一般

402
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:44,720
那么这种表现呢

403
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:46,960
我个人呢也没有什么觉得遗憾啊

404
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,559
因为他到这里我不会我去想

405
00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:50,880
它还会跌特别多啊

406
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,740
因为谷歌的状况相对会比较的稳定一点

407
00:17:54,740 --> 00:17:56,460
而且从前瞻估值的价格看

408
00:17:56,460 --> 00:17:57,779
他的340多的价格

409
00:17:57,779 --> 00:17:59,759
已经回到了中位数的下方吧

410
00:17:59,759 --> 00:18:02,279
27年财年的并不是一个很贵的价格

411
00:18:02,279 --> 00:18:04,000
所以再跌也跌不了太多啊

412
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,519
所以31~325了不得了

413
00:18:05,519 --> 00:18:06,599
就这个就这个位置啊

414
00:18:06,599 --> 00:18:08,769
这都是别人上车的地方好

415
00:18:08,769 --> 00:18:10,609
这是谷歌好

416
00:18:10,609 --> 00:18:11,769
亚马逊

417
00:18:13,019 --> 00:18:16,180
亚马逊我也给大家标识过相关的位置啊

418
00:18:16,180 --> 00:18:17,420
这都是比较不错的

419
00:18:17,420 --> 00:18:18,700
基于前瞻估值的

420
00:18:18,700 --> 00:18:21,670
因为他27年前的估值的下限是219

421
00:18:21,670 --> 00:18:23,049
现在是227

422
00:18:23,049 --> 00:18:23,829
快接近了

423
00:18:23,829 --> 00:18:25,990
那也是属于逐渐的止跌以后

424
00:18:25,990 --> 00:18:27,390
就会有人上车的位置啊

425
00:18:27,390 --> 00:18:28,750
所以呢他的情况也差

426
00:18:28,750 --> 00:18:29,269
也差不多

427
00:18:29,269 --> 00:18:30,910
也不会太糟糕

428
00:18:32,299 --> 00:18:35,299
好大家骂的比较多的微软好

429
00:18:35,299 --> 00:18:39,349
微软的价格呢是这个360是跌破了啊

430
00:18:39,349 --> 00:18:40,789
360在今天破位

431
00:18:40,789 --> 00:18:41,710
今天一个跳空下来

432
00:18:41,710 --> 00:18:42,470
大家看到没有

433
00:18:42,470 --> 00:18:44,470
今天跳空下来以后直接收盘

434
00:18:44,470 --> 00:18:45,549
收到了352

435
00:18:45,549 --> 00:18:47,109
又到了下一个强制征

436
00:18:47,109 --> 00:18:48,069
还没摸到啊

437
00:18:48,069 --> 00:18:48,769
还没摸到

438
00:18:48,769 --> 00:18:50,430
但是下方有连续的几个啊

439
00:18:50,430 --> 00:18:52,109
我把这几个都给大家连续标起来的

440
00:18:52,109 --> 00:18:53,609
都是并列的呃

441
00:18:53,609 --> 00:18:56,170
这个问题就就是就这么就是一个

442
00:18:56,170 --> 00:18:57,990
这个因为破位之后进入一个震荡吧

443
00:18:57,990 --> 00:19:01,579
想让它短时间内大涨的概率不太大啊

444
00:19:01,579 --> 00:19:04,240
等会我会说到关于这四大科技怎么去看

445
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:05,500
你怎么去想的问题

446
00:19:05,500 --> 00:19:05,940
好吧

447
00:19:05,940 --> 00:19:08,059
我等会集集中一起说啊

448
00:19:08,059 --> 00:19:08,859
仍旧啊

449
00:19:08,859 --> 00:19:11,460
我认为下方仍旧是布局的地方

450
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:13,000
好meta

451
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,440
metal的情况呢是4824540进入了这个位置

452
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,859
同样也是密集的强支撑区域

453
00:19:19,859 --> 00:19:20,380
好吧

454
00:19:20,380 --> 00:19:21,019
其实几个地方

455
00:19:21,019 --> 00:19:23,140
你看这几个四大科技差不多位置

456
00:19:23,140 --> 00:19:23,640
对不对

457
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:24,920
差别不大啊

458
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:30,919
英伟达英伟达又回到了之前大家布局的地方

459
00:19:30,919 --> 00:19:33,359
涨上去又跌下来

460
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,500
明显还是价格不贵啊

461
00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:36,799
还是价格不贵

462
00:19:36,799 --> 00:19:38,000
市值太高

463
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,000
最大的缺点市值太高

464
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,920
需要的拉动的钱太多了

465
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,459
现在市场呢都喜欢玩这种推得快的啊

466
00:19:45,459 --> 00:19:47,058
越慢的越没人玩是吧

467
00:19:47,058 --> 00:19:48,459
这个市场的这个结构呢

468
00:19:48,459 --> 00:19:52,970
是有一些有一些这个喜欢大波动好他的情况

469
00:19:52,970 --> 00:19:54,109
那也不做多说了吧

470
00:19:54,109 --> 00:19:55,529
其实没什么太大变化对吧

471
00:19:55,529 --> 00:19:57,690
只是说涨了跌了一个点两个点

472
00:19:57,690 --> 00:20:01,700
大家觉得这个好不好看的问题啊

473
00:20:01,700 --> 00:20:04,660
这几个呢我给大家先是给大家看一下位置

474
00:20:04,660 --> 00:20:05,200
对不对

475
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:06,180
看完之后呢

476
00:20:06,180 --> 00:20:08,539
我想把它们做个总结啊

477
00:20:08,539 --> 00:20:10,319
合到一起说

478
00:20:10,319 --> 00:20:12,920
我叫我说一个什么样的结论呢

479
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:22,828
就是如果啊你是压住AI成功这四大科技

480
00:20:22,828 --> 00:20:24,548
谷歌亚马逊

481
00:20:24,548 --> 00:20:26,169
微软meta

482
00:20:26,169 --> 00:20:28,309
你是绕不开的

483
00:20:28,309 --> 00:20:32,250
因为他们是最大的支出方

484
00:20:32,250 --> 00:20:34,109
最大的付钱的人

485
00:20:34,109 --> 00:20:35,450
他们为什么付钱

486
00:20:35,450 --> 00:20:38,710
因为他们付钱在压住AI行业

487
00:20:38,710 --> 00:20:40,839
AI货币化的成功

488
00:20:40,839 --> 00:20:43,640
他们用了自己所有的自由现金流

489
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:45,849
包括已经用上了借债

490
00:20:45,849 --> 00:20:48,930
甚至多年没有股权增发的

491
00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:50,750
都开始股权增发

492
00:20:50,750 --> 00:20:53,940
他们已经破釜沉舟了

493
00:20:54,180 --> 00:20:57,579
所以他们在压AI的成功

494
00:20:57,579 --> 00:20:59,559
如果你要压AI的成功

495
00:20:59,559 --> 00:21:01,599
你是绕不开他们的

496
00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:05,859
他们是整个AI成功基础设施往上的最顶端

497
00:21:06,750 --> 00:21:11,730
如果你认为AI最终无法实现货币化

498
00:21:11,730 --> 00:21:14,210
只是一个炒作的周期

499
00:21:14,210 --> 00:21:17,329
最终无法证明能成功是泡沫

500
00:21:17,329 --> 00:21:20,369
请尽早离开啊

501
00:21:20,369 --> 00:21:21,730
就这些四大科技

502
00:21:21,730 --> 00:21:23,730
包括相关的半导体

503
00:21:23,730 --> 00:21:26,369
你赚到钱的请尽早离开

504
00:21:26,369 --> 00:21:28,289
如果你认为这是泡沫啊

505
00:21:28,609 --> 00:21:30,569
我个人是个什么预判呢

506
00:21:30,569 --> 00:21:32,900
如果AI厂家啊

507
00:21:32,900 --> 00:21:35,799
这几家他们是从2024年开始

508
00:21:35,799 --> 00:21:38,299
已经是大量投入

509
00:21:38,299 --> 00:21:41,209
到现在已经2026年了

510
00:21:41,209 --> 00:21:43,500
接近3年时间了

511
00:21:43,500 --> 00:21:48,638
如果最终被政委会发生什么会发生

512
00:21:48,638 --> 00:21:51,098
美国GDP好不了

513
00:21:51,098 --> 00:21:52,378
刚才给大家看了一下

514
00:21:52,378 --> 00:21:54,089
关于一季度的GDP

515
00:21:54,089 --> 00:21:59,400
74%是由AI贡献的投资贡献的

516
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,940
所以他们如果被证伪

517
00:22:01,940 --> 00:22:04,200
美国GDP好不了

518
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,619
那么美股也好不了

519
00:22:07,619 --> 00:22:11,309
再往后是股灾也跑不了

520
00:22:11,309 --> 00:22:13,730
还有一个更重要的问题

521
00:22:13,730 --> 00:22:17,890
现在全球范围内的大量的AI的循环信贷

522
00:22:17,890 --> 00:22:22,049
债务融资牵扯到方方面面

523
00:22:22,049 --> 00:22:24,170
从信贷机构

524
00:22:24,170 --> 00:22:27,400
金融银行私募

525
00:22:27,759 --> 00:22:30,079
如果AI被证伪

526
00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:33,640
金融危机也跑不了

527
00:22:33,919 --> 00:22:37,959
那个时候你看到的就不是2022年

528
00:22:37,959 --> 00:22:39,759
市场的下跌了

529
00:22:39,759 --> 00:22:45,220
而是2000年互联网泡沫甚至更糟

530
00:22:45,220 --> 00:22:46,480
大家要记得

531
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,819
2000年的全球债务水平

532
00:22:48,819 --> 00:22:51,859
可没有2006年这么高

533
00:22:51,859 --> 00:22:55,220
无论是国家的信用主体的债务

534
00:22:55,220 --> 00:22:57,539
还是私营企业的债务

535
00:22:57,539 --> 00:23:00,319
和现在那都不是一个级别的

536
00:23:00,319 --> 00:23:03,700
所以这是我要告诉大家一件事情啊

537
00:23:03,700 --> 00:23:07,680
好那说一说我现在看到的情况

538
00:23:08,589 --> 00:23:10,930
目前我所追踪的数据啊

539
00:23:10,930 --> 00:23:12,430
其实我们在公共视频里面

540
00:23:12,430 --> 00:23:14,599
我并没有完整给大家展示过

541
00:23:14,599 --> 00:23:17,880
但是我在会员第281期

542
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,259
做过非常详细的数据的分析

543
00:23:21,259 --> 00:23:24,299
四大科技的AI的货币化

544
00:23:25,460 --> 00:23:28,039
其实呢正在路上

545
00:23:28,039 --> 00:23:30,099
尽管这个速度确实不理想

546
00:23:30,099 --> 00:23:31,059
实话实说啊

547
00:23:31,059 --> 00:23:32,660
进程是有滞后的

548
00:23:32,660 --> 00:23:35,150
但它正在发生

549
00:23:35,430 --> 00:23:41,099
至少呢在我持有的大的最大的这个持仓微软上

550
00:23:41,099 --> 00:23:45,130
我认为他成功的概率是比较大的

551
00:23:45,130 --> 00:23:46,730
因为他是在其中

552
00:23:46,730 --> 00:23:50,490
最有可能最快的恢复自由现金流的公司

553
00:23:50,490 --> 00:23:51,990
四大科技里面啊

554
00:23:51,990 --> 00:23:57,329
所以这也是我重仓微软的其中的一个理由

555
00:23:57,650 --> 00:24:02,190
当然如果AI革命最终证伪了

556
00:24:02,190 --> 00:24:04,410
我当然也会付出代价对吧

557
00:24:04,410 --> 00:24:06,529
为错误的判断买单嘛

558
00:24:06,529 --> 00:24:08,369
不过呢大家请放心啊

559
00:24:08,369 --> 00:24:09,849
如果真的到了那天

560
00:24:09,849 --> 00:24:11,469
我看到了一些信号

561
00:24:11,469 --> 00:24:12,588
真的到了

562
00:24:12,588 --> 00:24:15,299
我认为AI要证伪的时候

563
00:24:15,299 --> 00:24:16,839
要逃跑的时候

564
00:24:16,839 --> 00:24:19,160
我会提前告知大家的啊

565
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,769
所以呢现阶段大家呢你就需要一点自行判断啊

566
00:24:23,769 --> 00:24:25,169
因为我的判断我已经告诉你了

567
00:24:25,169 --> 00:24:27,788
我认为会大概率会成功

568
00:24:27,788 --> 00:24:29,409
那么你的判断是什么

569
00:24:29,409 --> 00:24:31,099
你要买的是什么

570
00:24:31,099 --> 00:24:33,380
你需要为你的判断买单

571
00:24:33,380 --> 00:24:35,279
如果你认为有问题

572
00:24:35,279 --> 00:24:37,660
那你就不要继续持有了

573
00:24:37,660 --> 00:24:38,240
好不好

574
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:42,059
所以呢这是有一些关于后面可能半年时间

575
00:24:42,059 --> 00:24:45,740
市场呢有一些变化会发生的嗯

576
00:24:45,740 --> 00:24:47,160
那么微软这支股票呢

577
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:52,730
我再给他半年时间来验证它的AI货币化

578
00:24:52,730 --> 00:24:53,970
半年时间

579
00:24:53,970 --> 00:24:56,930
这个话呢老观众应该知道啊

580
00:24:56,930 --> 00:25:01,440
我曾经在AAMD最困难的时候说过这句话对吧

581
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,029
后来AMD还不错啊

582
00:25:04,029 --> 00:25:05,109
好额

583
00:25:05,109 --> 00:25:05,589
这个呢

584
00:25:05,589 --> 00:25:09,269
就是今天给大家带来的关于一些内容的更新啊

585
00:25:09,269 --> 00:25:11,029
因为昨天呢没给大家讲啊

586
00:25:11,029 --> 00:25:13,660
因为昨天其实要讲的内容也不多啊

587
00:25:13,660 --> 00:25:16,920
今天呢正好呢就把有一些东西给大家一口气

588
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,450
全部都补上好

589
00:25:19,450 --> 00:25:21,710
其他的我就没什么多说的了啊

590
00:25:21,710 --> 00:25:23,609
亚马逊这边追加了一笔新投资

591
00:25:23,609 --> 00:25:28,240
是到印度的那个云计算和人工智能领域

592
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,140
追加130亿美元啊

593
00:25:30,140 --> 00:25:30,980
这是亚马逊

594
00:25:30,980 --> 00:25:33,700
这个也是可能是他今天有一些股价

595
00:25:33,700 --> 00:25:35,680
更多波动的理由吧

596
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,630
毕竟现在大家一看到你们股价这样

597
00:25:39,630 --> 00:25:42,250
你们现在呢货币化速度又不够

598
00:25:42,250 --> 00:25:44,089
你还在砸钱对吧

599
00:25:44,089 --> 00:25:45,329
你这个是干嘛呢

600
00:25:45,329 --> 00:25:46,609
败家子儿呵

601
00:25:46,609 --> 00:25:48,490
其实人家是没办法投了

602
00:25:48,490 --> 00:25:50,049
两年24年投到现在

603
00:25:50,049 --> 00:25:51,609
他们如果现在放弃

604
00:25:51,609 --> 00:25:52,789
马上就放弃

605
00:25:52,789 --> 00:25:54,109
除非对手都放缓

606
00:25:54,109 --> 00:25:56,220
大家都放缓诶

607
00:25:56,220 --> 00:26:01,529
那特别是如果其中有一家先放缓资本支出

608
00:26:01,529 --> 00:26:04,009
反而获得了股价的回报

609
00:26:04,009 --> 00:26:05,569
或者了有更多的信心

610
00:26:05,569 --> 00:26:07,849
市场的乐观评价更多了

611
00:26:07,849 --> 00:26:10,009
那么其他几家有可能会陆续跟进

612
00:26:10,009 --> 00:26:12,990
但现在大家都被架在火上烤啊

613
00:26:12,990 --> 00:26:13,809
投了一半

614
00:26:13,809 --> 00:26:15,579
你告诉我不投了啊

615
00:26:15,579 --> 00:26:17,740
不行啊啊我们已经干了这么多了

616
00:26:17,740 --> 00:26:19,299
钱都花出去了

617
00:26:19,299 --> 00:26:21,140
那没办法

618
00:26:21,140 --> 00:26:22,259
那市场就是这样

619
00:26:22,259 --> 00:26:25,470
行业竞争大企业竞争在前沿领域

620
00:26:25,470 --> 00:26:27,109
你要不做别人做了

621
00:26:27,109 --> 00:26:29,089
你回头就是连汤都没得喝的

622
00:26:29,089 --> 00:26:30,349
那现在是这个样子啊

623
00:26:30,349 --> 00:26:32,929
看最后谁先挺不住呗

624
00:26:32,929 --> 00:26:35,709
好这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

625
00:26:35,709 --> 00:26:38,909
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助呢

626
00:26:38,909 --> 00:26:43,309
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发

627
00:26:43,309 --> 00:26:47,380
别忘了点赞之前讲的三个抛售的洪流

628
00:26:47,380 --> 00:26:48,759
这还没有啊

629
00:26:48,759 --> 00:26:50,940
还没有到6月底它还没有发生

630
00:26:50,940 --> 00:26:55,259
一个是养老金月末的股票的抛售

631
00:26:55,259 --> 00:26:59,299
一个是CCTA点位是在7312

632
00:26:59,299 --> 00:27:00,299
还没触发

633
00:27:00,299 --> 00:27:03,599
第三个是极高的杠杆

634
00:27:03,599 --> 00:27:07,999
这些杠杆只有在股价大幅第一次

635
00:27:07,999 --> 00:27:11,338
第二次连续跳空下跌的时候

636
00:27:11,338 --> 00:27:16,309
下杀的时候才会暴露在横盘和微涨行情下

637
00:27:16,309 --> 00:27:18,579
你看不到它们的威力

638
00:27:18,579 --> 00:27:19,200
好

639
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:20,700
那这个呢是我们之前讲过的啊

640
00:27:20,700 --> 00:27:21,799
大家如果没有看的话

641
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:25,849
把之前的视频拿出来翻一翻好

642
00:27:25,849 --> 00:27:27,029
那我们今天到这吧

643
00:27:27,029 --> 00:27:28,970
呃这个差一点就准备说

644
00:27:28,970 --> 00:27:30,480
祝大家周末愉快了

645
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,359
没有没有没有

646
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:32,079
明天还有节目啊

647
00:27:32,079 --> 00:27:32,559
明天没有

648
00:27:32,559 --> 00:27:34,519
明天明天这个不开天窗啊

649
00:27:34,519 --> 00:27:37,069
哈明天确实有节目有节目啊

650
00:27:37,069 --> 00:27:38,470
好那我们今天到这儿啊

651
00:27:38,470 --> 00:27:42,400
咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

共 19 条，按点赞数排序。

共 2 条，按视频时间排序。