【Couch Investor】华尔街目标价560美元，市盈率新低，何时买入？

1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,250
大家好，欢迎回到另一个被低估或未被充分认识的视频

2
00:00:04,250 --> 00:00:05,929
我们将讨论微软公司

3
00:00:05,929 --> 00:00:06,450
在这期视频中

4
00:00:06,450 --> 00:00:08,669
我们谈论了很多关于Meta和谷歌的内容

5
00:00:08,669 --> 00:00:09,050
顺便说一句

6
00:00:09,050 --> 00:00:10,630
Meta今日上涨了4.7%

7
00:00:10,630 --> 00:00:11,330
涨幅达7%

8
00:00:11,330 --> 00:00:12,050
Muse Park

9
00:00:12,050 --> 00:00:13,509
One Point One发布了

10
00:00:13,509 --> 00:00:15,769
扎克伯格又开始发推特了

11
00:00:15,769 --> 00:00:17,809
看来一切顺利

12
00:00:17,809 --> 00:00:19,170
仍然严重被低估

13
00:00:19,170 --> 00:00:24,210
不过微软也是这类公司之一，虽然

14
00:00:24,210 --> 00:00:26,449
它处于高位是理所当然的

15
00:00:26,449 --> 00:00:27,390
但另一方面

16
00:00:27,390 --> 00:00:32,060
从股价表现来看并不出色

17
00:00:32,060 --> 00:00:33,020
而且

18
00:00:33,020 --> 00:00:34,659
这并非高价股

19
00:00:34,659 --> 00:00:36,649
仍然盈利能力强劲

20
00:00:36,649 --> 00:00:39,609
那么微软到底发生了什么

21
00:00:39,609 --> 00:00:41,969
我们先看看今日的热力图

22
00:00:41,969 --> 00:00:47,460
如您所见，Meta呈现亮绿色，股价631美元

23
00:00:47,460 --> 00:00:50,518
这是该股的关键价位

24
00:00:50,518 --> 00:00:52,268
但观察微软

25
00:00:52,268 --> 00:00:52,948
微软

26
00:00:52,948 --> 00:00:53,469
是一家市值2.86万亿美元的公司

27
00:00:53,469 --> 00:00:57,348
当前交易价约384美元

28
00:00:57,348 --> 00:01:03,189
如果我们查看过去五年的股价走势

29
00:01:03,189 --> 00:01:05,579
股价上涨了38.2%

30
00:01:05,579 --> 00:01:07,579
目前正经历回调

31
00:01:07,579 --> 00:01:08,780
过去12个月的数据

32
00:01:08,780 --> 00:01:12,810
大约回调了2.9%

33
00:01:12,810 --> 00:01:16,329
过去12个月下跌2.3%

34
00:01:16,329 --> 00:01:19,370
但较峰值已下跌2.9%

35
00:01:19,370 --> 00:01:21,849
不久前曾下跌3.5%

36
00:01:21,849 --> 00:01:23,290
不久之前

37
00:01:23,290 --> 00:01:26,950
微软到底怎么了

38
00:01:26,950 --> 00:01:29,349
现在是否值得买入

39
00:01:29,349 --> 00:01:32,540
这是否又是被低估到不可忽视的标的

40
00:01:32,540 --> 00:01:36,019
市场是否关注了错误的方向

41
00:01:36,019 --> 00:01:39,280
市场是否只关注Anthropic

42
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,140
SpaceX或AI领域

43
00:01:41,140 --> 00:01:42,719
OpenAI等

44
00:01:42,719 --> 00:01:43,739
等等

45
00:01:43,739 --> 00:01:47,010
而不关注微软这类公司

46
00:01:47,010 --> 00:01:49,930
Meta、亚马逊当然

47
00:01:49,930 --> 00:01:53,989
亚马逊比微软更昂贵

48
00:01:53,989 --> 00:01:56,750
但仍是优质公司

49
00:01:56,750 --> 00:01:58,269
甚至英伟达也是如此

50
00:01:58,269 --> 00:01:59,709
英伟达确实

51
00:01:59,709 --> 00:02:02,250
它的价值高达四千九百亿美元

52
00:02:02,250 --> 00:02:03,390
仍上涨二十四点

53
00:02:03,390 --> 00:02:05,099
过去一年增长百分之三

54
00:02:05,099 --> 00:02:06,299
下跌百分之十四

55
00:02:06,299 --> 00:02:07,719
这就是当前的回撤幅度

56
00:02:07,719 --> 00:02:10,069
但它仍是交易状况良好的公司

57
00:02:10,069 --> 00:02:11,150
市盈率三十一点

58
00:02:11,150 --> 00:02:11,990
当前交易市盈率

59
00:02:11,990 --> 00:02:16,719
但市销率仅为二十倍，市净率零点五

60
00:02:16,719 --> 00:02:17,810
我的意思是

61
00:02:17,810 --> 00:02:23,650
看到市场上某些公司备受青睐

62
00:02:23,650 --> 00:02:26,079
并享有超高溢价

63
00:02:26,079 --> 00:02:27,038
而其他公司

64
00:02:27,038 --> 00:02:31,629
这些通常仍是表现极佳的企业

65
00:02:31,629 --> 00:02:34,750
现在却未获太多关注

66
00:02:34,750 --> 00:02:38,050
这可能是因为这个原因

67
00:02:38,050 --> 00:02:39,680
如果我们看资本支出

68
00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:40,740
资本支出增长

69
00:02:40,740 --> 00:02:43,340
这是微软过去十二个月的数据

70
00:02:43,340 --> 00:02:46,550
你可以清楚看到过去五年的变化

71
00:02:46,550 --> 00:02:51,689
从约二十点六亿美元增至九十一点二亿美元

72
00:02:51,689 --> 00:02:54,349
肯定将突破一百亿美元

73
00:02:54,349 --> 00:02:58,449
下个季度再次刷新十二个月数据

74
00:02:58,449 --> 00:02:58,930
好的

75
00:02:58,930 --> 00:03:01,090
我们了解资本支出领域

76
00:03:01,090 --> 00:03:04,189
我们早已听过千百次

77
00:03:04,189 --> 00:03:05,740
但在微软

78
00:03:05,740 --> 00:03:07,379
不同于许多公司

79
00:03:07,379 --> 00:03:11,930
微软仍在大量产生自由现金流

80
00:03:11,930 --> 00:03:13,889
过去十二个月的数据

81
00:03:13,889 --> 00:03:17,439
自由现金流超七十亿美元

82
00:03:17,439 --> 00:03:20,039
我们也看到谷歌的自由现金流

83
00:03:20,039 --> 00:03:22,129
不会出现负值

84
00:03:22,129 --> 00:03:26,310
这正是当前的巨大竞争优势

85
00:03:26,310 --> 00:03:33,449
因为如果变现能力不如预期

86
00:03:33,449 --> 00:03:34,009
好的

87
00:03:34,009 --> 00:03:37,990
那些不盈利的可能将倒闭

88
00:03:37,990 --> 00:03:40,310
但那些拥有巨额现金的公司

89
00:03:40,310 --> 00:03:42,389
且持续产生巨额现金流

90
00:03:42,389 --> 00:03:43,310
嗯

91
00:03:43,310 --> 00:03:45,469
他们可以四处收购

92
00:03:45,469 --> 00:03:45,629
哦

93
00:03:45,629 --> 00:03:46,550
我喜欢这家公司

94
00:03:46,550 --> 00:03:47,530
我喜欢该产品

95
00:03:47,530 --> 00:03:48,509
我喜欢这个功能

96
00:03:48,509 --> 00:03:49,270
我要买下它

97
00:03:49,270 --> 00:03:50,340
我要整合它

98
00:03:50,340 --> 00:03:53,340
我的生态系统将越来越好

99
00:03:54,419 --> 00:03:56,150
所以再次

100
00:03:56,830 --> 00:03:58,590
市场这里的问题是什么

101
00:03:58,590 --> 00:04:00,490
在尝试回答之前

102
00:04:00,490 --> 00:04:02,789
从纯粹的技术分析角度来看

103
00:04:02,789 --> 00:04:03,729
你可以在这里看到

104
00:04:03,729 --> 00:04:05,169
这是周线图

105
00:04:05,169 --> 00:04:06,169
六月份的时候

106
00:04:06,169 --> 00:04:06,870
六月初

107
00:04:06,870 --> 00:04:10,629
试图突破周线50日线未果

108
00:04:10,629 --> 00:04:14,830
遭遇强劲阻力一路回落至200日线下方

109
00:04:14,830 --> 00:04:15,009
另外

110
00:04:15,009 --> 00:04:15,610
顺便说一句

111
00:04:15,610 --> 00:04:18,709
如果你现在查看日线图

112
00:04:18,709 --> 00:04:19,629
如你所见

113
00:04:19,629 --> 00:04:21,430
我们处于无人区

114
00:04:21,430 --> 00:04:26,689
日线图在六月初处于200日均线

115
00:04:26,689 --> 00:04:27,529
在周线图上

116
00:04:27,529 --> 00:04:28,589
则是50日线

117
00:04:28,589 --> 00:04:30,689
这些是关键区域

118
00:04:30,689 --> 00:04:32,329
现在出现反弹

119
00:04:32,329 --> 00:04:33,370
我们稍有进展

120
00:04:33,370 --> 00:04:34,389
仍处无人区

121
00:04:34,389 --> 00:04:36,490
如果我是赌徒

122
00:04:36,490 --> 00:04:41,329
我会认为下个财报将是上涨起点

123
00:04:41,329 --> 00:04:43,379
因为它将再次证明

124
00:04:43,379 --> 00:04:44,980
Copilot采用情况

125
00:04:44,980 --> 00:04:46,399
Azure增长态势

126
00:04:46,399 --> 00:04:48,920
再详细谈谈

127
00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:50,660
保持模型中立

128
00:04:50,660 --> 00:04:53,839
这将是未来趋势

129
00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,339
目前市场认为

130
00:04:56,339 --> 00:04:58,839
资本支出增速超过营收增长

131
00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,180
2026年计划投入约1900亿美元

132
00:05:02,180 --> 00:05:03,720
超过AWS

133
00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:05,459
全年总营收

134
00:05:05,459 --> 00:05:08,459
AWS仍是最大营收来源

135
00:05:08,459 --> 00:05:11,810
Copilot规模化采用尚未验证

136
00:05:11,810 --> 00:05:13,990
约200万付费席位对比

137
00:05:13,990 --> 00:05:17,290
微软商业版4.5亿用户

138
00:05:17,290 --> 00:05:18,620
365天活跃用户

139
00:05:18,620 --> 00:05:20,360
转化率偏低

140
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,480
OpenAI依赖风险

141
00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:22,879
40

142
00:05:22,879 --> 00:05:24,399
微软5%股权

143
00:05:24,399 --> 00:05:25,949
602

144
00:05:25,949 --> 00:05:30,529
与单一客户关联70亿美元 backlog

145
00:05:30,769 --> 00:05:31,269
好的

146
00:05:31,269 --> 00:05:32,949
但我们已看到微软

147
00:05:32,949 --> 00:05:36,769
试图摆脱OpenAI依赖

148
00:05:36,769 --> 00:05:37,610
此外还有

149
00:05:37,610 --> 00:05:39,509
我认为这不是大问题

150
00:05:39,509 --> 00:05:41,550
Xbox业务重组

151
00:05:41,550 --> 00:05:43,629
我认为结构调整是必要的

152
00:05:43,629 --> 00:05:46,850
还有索尼丑闻中的诚实性

153
00:05:46,850 --> 00:05:47,129
没错

154
00:05:47,129 --> 00:05:48,850
我们都是物理硬盘

155
00:05:48,850 --> 00:05:49,959
没什么意义

156
00:05:49,959 --> 00:05:52,579
我认为这里对Xbox来说是个巨大机会

157
00:05:52,579 --> 00:05:55,279
我这辈子从来没用过Xbox

158
00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:56,459
我是索尼的人

159
00:05:56,459 --> 00:05:59,230
但若索尼要坑我们

160
00:06:00,470 --> 00:06:02,509
或许是时候转移了

161
00:06:02,509 --> 00:06:04,279
所以让我们

162
00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,379
试着理解市场为何看错

163
00:06:08,379 --> 00:06:09,379
微软是

164
00:06:09,379 --> 00:06:12,269
当然仍被视为软件巨头

165
00:06:12,269 --> 00:06:12,629
没错

166
00:06:12,629 --> 00:06:15,519
是全球最大的软件玩家

167
00:06:15,519 --> 00:06:16,759
但微软是

168
00:06:16,759 --> 00:06:17,439
正如我们所说

169
00:06:17,439 --> 00:06:19,399
微软是无机型

170
00:06:19,399 --> 00:06:21,319
转向按使用量

171
00:06:21,319 --> 00:06:22,180
基于用量定价

172
00:06:22,180 --> 00:06:24,639
深度嵌入企业工作流程

173
00:06:24,639 --> 00:06:26,920
竞争对手难以复制

174
00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,389
你会明白这为何合理

175
00:06:30,389 --> 00:06:32,149
我们之前讨论过

176
00:06:32,149 --> 00:06:34,410
但我很乐意重复

177
00:06:34,410 --> 00:06:34,889
然后

178
00:06:34,889 --> 00:06:36,649
关于Copilots

179
00:06:36,649 --> 00:06:41,449
Copilot席位从1500万增至超2000万

180
00:06:41,449 --> 00:06:43,959
同比激增250%

181
00:06:43,959 --> 00:06:46,279
每周使用匹配Outlook

182
00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,759
Adella称其成为日常习惯

183
00:06:48,759 --> 00:06:49,850
当然

184
00:06:50,089 --> 00:06:50,850
就我个人而言

185
00:06:50,850 --> 00:06:53,629
你知道我键盘上的这个小键

186
00:06:53,629 --> 00:06:55,009
就是Copilot

187
00:06:55,009 --> 00:06:56,310
我从不用

188
00:06:56,310 --> 00:06:58,350
但和我交谈的人

189
00:06:58,350 --> 00:06:59,629
在大公司工作

190
00:06:59,629 --> 00:07:01,189
大型科技企业

191
00:07:01,189 --> 00:07:03,930
他们都必须使用Copilots

192
00:07:03,930 --> 00:07:05,829
所以我想是的

193
00:07:05,829 --> 00:07:10,918
必须进入企业才能在AI领域赚大钱

194
00:07:10,918 --> 00:07:11,918
至于AI

195
00:07:11,918 --> 00:07:14,798
分析营收增速达370亿美元

196
00:07:14,798 --> 00:07:16,038
同比增长120

197
00:07:16,038 --> 00:07:18,290
活动营收年增3%

198
00:07:18,290 --> 00:07:23,509
业务流程营收创1350亿美元历史新高

199
00:07:23,509 --> 00:07:24,910
按滚动十二个月计算

200
00:07:24,910 --> 00:07:27,600
年复合增长14%

201
00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,519
至于这1900亿美元的资本支出

202
00:07:30,519 --> 00:07:32,350
这是个没错的事情

203
00:07:32,350 --> 00:07:34,649
这正在全面展开

204
00:07:34,649 --> 00:07:37,709
我们还不清楚真实的回报率是多少

205
00:07:37,709 --> 00:07:39,740
我们可以填上这个数字

206
00:07:39,740 --> 00:07:43,300
但我们可以看到一个商业RPO

207
00:07:43,300 --> 00:07:45,480
金额达6270亿美元

208
00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,879
同比激增99%

209
00:07:47,879 --> 00:07:50,819
显然需求非常旺盛

210
00:07:50,819 --> 00:07:53,019
其次运营利润率

211
00:07:53,019 --> 00:07:57,759
本季度或上季度达到了46.8%的历史最高点

212
00:07:57,759 --> 00:08:00,560
相比五年前的41.6%显著增长

213
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,980
核心业务盈利能力达到前所未有的水平

214
00:08:02,980 --> 00:08:05,529
即使在此次扩展过程中

215
00:08:05,529 --> 00:08:07,889
然后提出最关键的问题

216
00:08:07,889 --> 00:08:08,129
没错

217
00:08:08,129 --> 00:08:10,250
对OpenAI的依赖程度

218
00:08:10,250 --> 00:08:15,870
Azure非OpenAI部分仍同比增长28%

219
00:08:15,870 --> 00:08:19,350
Azure整体上季度增长40%

220
00:08:19,350 --> 00:08:23,509
显然存在OpenAI之外的增长

221
00:08:23,509 --> 00:08:25,230
我们已经亲眼目睹了这一切

222
00:08:25,230 --> 00:08:26,209
靠近并进入热带区域

223
00:08:26,209 --> 00:08:27,110
越来越多了

224
00:08:27,110 --> 00:08:29,949
我们也知道他们希望OpenAI上市

225
00:08:29,949 --> 00:08:31,209
所以是的

226
00:08:31,209 --> 00:08:32,970
他们或许可以退出部分仓位

227
00:08:32,970 --> 00:08:35,409
他们可以套现，随你叫什么

228
00:08:35,409 --> 00:08:35,789
然后

229
00:08:35,789 --> 00:08:36,470
最近

230
00:08:36,470 --> 00:08:40,049
有一份报告显示微软已经开始更换

231
00:08:40,049 --> 00:08:46,179
OpenAI和其内部AI栈中使用的熵模型

232
00:08:46,179 --> 00:08:49,120
积极减少对单一供应商的依赖

233
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,059
当然，如果他们觉得在内部进行这是可行的

234
00:08:52,059 --> 00:08:56,200
这意味着内部的AI模型表现相当出色

235
00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,700
否则我不认为他们会做出这样的调整

236
00:08:59,700 --> 00:09:04,500
接下来探讨转向低成本AI为何利好微软

237
00:09:04,500 --> 00:09:06,519
因此你拥有AI实验室

238
00:09:06,519 --> 00:09:08,179
然后还有Azure微软

239
00:09:08,179 --> 00:09:10,980
因此AI实验室构建的模型利润空间被压缩

240
00:09:10,980 --> 00:09:13,320
随着工作负载转向更便宜的开源模型

241
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:14,220
对的

242
00:09:14,220 --> 00:09:16,389
这些就是令人恐惧的头条新闻

243
00:09:16,389 --> 00:09:18,210
然后还有微软Azure

244
00:09:18,210 --> 00:09:19,169
他们掌控着道路

245
00:09:19,169 --> 00:09:21,549
他们收取相同的基础设施利润率

246
00:09:21,549 --> 00:09:24,019
无论运行哪个模型

247
00:09:24,019 --> 00:09:28,299
因此企业正从始终使用最佳模型转向路由策略

248
00:09:28,299 --> 00:09:29,980
简单任务用廉价模型

249
00:09:29,980 --> 00:09:32,440
复杂任务用前沿模型

250
00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,600
你从Meta那里听到了这个

251
00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,120
你正在从微软听到这些信息

252
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:36,559
天啊

253
00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,460
我们已经从帕兰蒂尔听到这个很久了

254
00:09:39,460 --> 00:09:40,279
很长时间

255
00:09:40,279 --> 00:09:43,139
这并没有减少总的人工智能使用量

256
00:09:43,139 --> 00:09:44,450
它反而激增了

257
00:09:44,450 --> 00:09:48,690
更便宜的token意味着企业可以循环运行代理

258
00:09:48,690 --> 00:09:50,009
阅读整个代码库

259
00:09:50,009 --> 00:09:53,429
完成之前过于昂贵的任务

260
00:09:53,429 --> 00:09:57,480
如果我们看看这里的微软token用量

261
00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,500
超过一百万亿token

262
00:09:59,500 --> 00:10:01,960
微软在一个季度内处理了

263
00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,320
同比增长五倍

264
00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:10,700
超过三百家晶圆厂客户今年预计每个将处理万亿级token以上

265
00:10:10,700 --> 00:10:17,839
人工智能推理成本每单位能力下降的估算速率约为每年十倍

266
00:10:17,839 --> 00:10:23,158
典型超大规模基础设施运营利润率约为3.5%至30%

267
00:10:23,158 --> 00:10:25,360
八个百分点的粘性

268
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,379
无论运行哪个模型

269
00:10:28,379 --> 00:10:33,360
因此更便宜的token历史上并未减少超大规模云收入

270
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,399
反而意味着总使用量大幅增加

271
00:10:36,399 --> 00:10:42,389
每token价格下降与总支出增长可以同时发生

272
00:10:42,389 --> 00:10:45,570
然后我们转向Azure AI Foundry

273
00:10:45,570 --> 00:10:46,629
编排层

274
00:10:46,629 --> 00:10:47,070
是的

275
00:10:47,070 --> 00:10:50,309
与皮埃罗做的事情非常相似

276
00:10:50,309 --> 00:10:51,470
Azure AI Foundry

277
00:10:51,470 --> 00:10:53,629
让企业运行任何模型

278
00:10:53,629 --> 00:10:58,289
OpenAI和微软自有模型通过统一管理层实现安全

279
00:10:58,289 --> 00:11:02,019
内置重要合规和计费功能

280
00:11:02,019 --> 00:11:03,419
然后是核心优势

281
00:11:03,419 --> 00:11:07,700
尤其是这些超大规模公司的主要优势在于模型切换

282
00:11:07,700 --> 00:11:10,509
我们知道切换云服务商

283
00:11:10,509 --> 00:11:10,929
是的

284
00:11:10,929 --> 00:11:12,629
确实有人会这么做

285
00:11:12,629 --> 00:11:19,169
但大多数大公司还是使用三到两家

286
00:11:19,169 --> 00:11:21,210
但市场上只有三家

287
00:11:21,210 --> 00:11:24,409
你不会每天切换云服务

288
00:11:24,409 --> 00:11:25,429
例如

289
00:11:25,429 --> 00:11:26,330
亚马逊AWS

290
00:11:26,330 --> 00:11:27,870
他们拥有亚马逊Bedrock

291
00:11:27,870 --> 00:11:29,629
已经展现出这一模式

292
00:11:29,629 --> 00:11:32,549
实现数十亿美元的年度化营收增长

293
00:11:32,549 --> 00:11:39,190
客户支出季度环比增长60%覆盖超十万个客户

294
00:11:39,190 --> 00:11:42,629
Azure Foundry基于相同逻辑构建

295
00:11:42,629 --> 00:11:44,769
实际上我们

296
00:11:44,769 --> 00:11:47,789
我认为昨天看到一份报告

297
00:11:47,789 --> 00:11:51,470
称Meta可能对云计算做同样的事

298
00:11:51,470 --> 00:11:51,889
现在

299
00:11:51,889 --> 00:11:55,240
综上所述股票是否真的便宜呢

300
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,539
如果我们看估值倍数

301
00:11:57,539 --> 00:11:59,568
我们稍后会分析DCF模型

302
00:11:59,568 --> 00:12:02,149
我们观察十二个月市盈率前值

303
00:12:02,149 --> 00:12:08,139
我们可以看到十二个月市盈率比五年均值低30%

304
00:12:08,139 --> 00:12:11,480
前向131%的市销率

305
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,820
比市销率均值低15%

306
00:12:14,820 --> 00:12:15,259
二

307
00:12:15,259 --> 00:12:16,860
比均值低4%

308
00:12:16,860 --> 00:12:19,259
然后第四季度EBITDA的贝塔值为3

309
00:12:19,259 --> 00:12:21,779
现在比均值低7%

310
00:12:21,779 --> 00:12:23,710
当然之前你可能会说是啊

311
00:12:23,710 --> 00:12:23,870
好的

312
00:12:23,870 --> 00:12:26,710
但之前可能处于溢价状态

313
00:12:26,710 --> 00:12:27,830
我会说你知道吗

314
00:12:27,830 --> 00:12:28,289
好的

315
00:12:28,289 --> 00:12:28,899
正确

316
00:12:28,899 --> 00:12:31,960
但目前如果看这些数据整体

317
00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,970
我认为没有处于溢价状态

318
00:12:35,970 --> 00:12:36,210
现在

319
00:12:36,210 --> 00:12:41,690
当然整体来看唯一昂贵的指标是

320
00:12:41,690 --> 00:12:43,169
明显偏高的指标是

321
00:12:43,169 --> 00:12:44,929
当然自由现金流指标

322
00:12:44,929 --> 00:12:48,068
这符合大幅增加资本支出的情况

323
00:12:48,068 --> 00:12:51,649
自由现金流倍数正在下降

324
00:12:51,649 --> 00:12:53,349
我们已观察到整体趋势

325
00:12:53,349 --> 00:12:59,879
但公司仍每年产生大量自由现金流

326
00:12:59,879 --> 00:13:01,759
关于DCF分析

327
00:13:01,759 --> 00:13:02,200
嗯

328
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:02,840
我们有乐观情景

329
00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:04,929
基准情景和悲观情景

330
00:13:04,929 --> 00:13:05,889
正如你们所知

331
00:13:05,889 --> 00:13:09,769
这些资料可在谷歌云端免费获取

332
00:13:09,769 --> 00:13:13,000
与其他DCF模型一同提供

333
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:13,460
因此

334
00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:15,529
根据我的假设

335
00:13:15,529 --> 00:13:20,269
微软的加权内在价值约为508美元

336
00:13:20,269 --> 00:13:21,649
较当前价格有32.5%的上行空间

337
00:13:21,649 --> 00:13:24,360
基点518美元

338
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,840
乐观情景671美元

339
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,259
悲观情景326美元

340
00:13:29,259 --> 00:13:31,500
较当前价格低约15%

341
00:13:31,500 --> 00:13:35,879
这些基于未来十年营收增长假设

342
00:13:35,879 --> 00:13:40,179
这是十年内的利润率假设

343
00:13:40,179 --> 00:13:42,200
同样适用于未来十年

344
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:43,690
你可以自行调整这些数值

345
00:13:43,690 --> 00:13:45,649
当然

346
00:13:45,649 --> 00:13:46,809
自行分析

347
00:13:46,809 --> 00:13:47,789
构建自己的模型

348
00:13:47,789 --> 00:13:49,529
这样才能合理

349
00:13:49,529 --> 00:13:50,250
这样才能

350
00:13:50,250 --> 00:13:53,330
当然得出这些结论

351
00:13:53,330 --> 00:13:58,220
到第十年时收入将达到约九百零七亿美元

352
00:13:58,220 --> 00:14:00,440
在基准情景下的牛市情况

353
00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:04,580
熊市情景下为九百七十六亿美元

354
00:14:04,580 --> 00:14:08,320
企业自由现金流为七百七十五亿美元

355
00:14:11,009 --> 00:14:14,070
牛市情景下为四百二十四五亿美元

356
00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:18,919
基准情景下为三百六十二亿美元

357
00:14:18,919 --> 00:14:20,659
所有数据均在第十年

358
00:14:20,659 --> 00:14:21,980
这让你觉得合理吗

359
00:14:21,980 --> 00:14:23,139
这让你觉得不合理吗

360
00:14:23,139 --> 00:14:23,840
这取决于你

361
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:25,960
这就是做这类练习的原因

362
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:27,870
你可以自行编造故事

363
00:14:27,870 --> 00:14:31,509
当然你可以编造所有数字来匹配目标

364
00:14:31,509 --> 00:14:32,970
以符合你想要的数字和叙事

365
00:14:32,970 --> 00:14:34,590
但故事必须合理

366
00:14:34,590 --> 00:14:35,509
但你不能说

367
00:14:35,509 --> 00:14:35,789
哦

368
00:14:35,789 --> 00:14:38,870
接下来十年每年增长四十个百分点

369
00:14:38,870 --> 00:14:40,919
现在这似乎不太合理

370
00:14:40,919 --> 00:14:42,139
对我来说非常清楚

371
00:14:42,139 --> 00:14:44,480
微软明显被低估

372
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:45,980
我不是唯一这么认为的人

373
00:14:45,980 --> 00:14:50,399
显然分析师也认为这是被低估的股票

374
00:14:50,399 --> 00:14:54,379
当前十二个月共识目标价为五百六十美元

375
00:14:54,379 --> 00:14:55,779
即上涨

376
00:14:55,779 --> 00:14:59,120
从当前价位看有六个百分点的上涨空间

377
00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:00,720
现在你可能会问自己

378
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:01,100
好的

379
00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:04,559
那为什么你不买入这只股票呢

380
00:15:04,559 --> 00:15:05,679
这是个好问题

381
00:15:05,679 --> 00:15:07,980
如果我有大量现金

382
00:15:07,980 --> 00:15:11,580
如果我投资组合中已有足够持仓

383
00:15:11,580 --> 00:15:14,299
或者你可以将其加入退休投资组合

384
00:15:14,299 --> 00:15:14,480
不过

385
00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:15,480
正如我之前所说

386
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,360
我可能更倾向于选择英伟达而非微软

387
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,659
但谁知道可能会改变

388
00:15:21,659 --> 00:15:23,240
但对我来说目前

389
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:24,580
如果我持有它

390
00:15:24,580 --> 00:15:28,399
现在可能会继续增持

391
00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:29,440
但我并不持有

392
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,279
因此现在无需开新仓

393
00:15:32,279 --> 00:15:36,549
我更倾向于继续投资Meta

394
00:15:36,549 --> 00:15:41,690
我认为Meta更易操作且更被低估

395
00:15:41,690 --> 00:15:42,429
相比微软

396
00:15:42,429 --> 00:15:44,620
但另一方面

397
00:15:44,620 --> 00:15:45,759
如果观察这家公司

398
00:15:45,759 --> 00:15:47,240
如果看当前业务状况

399
00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:48,409
如果看其增长潜力

400
00:15:48,409 --> 00:15:49,450
它仍然在那里

401
00:15:49,450 --> 00:15:52,929
它仍然极其极其有吸引力

402
00:15:52,929 --> 00:15:55,909
就在这游戏里

403
00:15:55,909 --> 00:15:57,379
就像我们看到的元宇宙

404
00:15:57,379 --> 00:15:59,779
除非你拿出些花里胡哨的

405
00:15:59,779 --> 00:16:02,220
模型和基准并进行市场推广

406
00:16:02,220 --> 00:16:03,679
你知道从里面出来什么

407
00:16:03,679 --> 00:16:05,349
市场不会在意

408
00:16:05,349 --> 00:16:08,668
但元宇宙今天股价630美元

409
00:16:08,668 --> 00:16:14,299
元宇宙今天突然变得比上周好那么多吗？不

410
00:16:14,299 --> 00:16:19,360
他们恰好发布了Muse Spark One，人们喜欢他们的基准

411
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:20,700
市场喜欢它

412
00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:21,600
好的

413
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:26,539
但一周前我们已知新Spark在持续改进

414
00:16:26,539 --> 00:16:31,289
我们知道Meta将推出新产品和服务

415
00:16:31,289 --> 00:16:35,110
我们知道最终他们会开始收费订阅

416
00:16:35,110 --> 00:16:37,759
数百万人会支付订阅费

417
00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:39,919
我们知道他们会赚很多钱

418
00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:44,509
我们也知道核心业务已盈利颇丰

419
00:16:44,509 --> 00:16:45,669
但头条新闻

420
00:16:45,669 --> 00:16:47,129
头条新闻和市场情绪

421
00:16:47,129 --> 00:16:49,889
这就是短期推动股价的因素

422
00:16:49,889 --> 00:16:56,870
尤其是从严重低估到合理估值的转变

423
00:16:56,870 --> 00:16:59,350
这就是我们等待的Meta情况

424
00:16:59,350 --> 00:17:02,269
这也是等待微软的情况

425
00:17:02,269 --> 00:17:04,089
因为数据在那里

426
00:17:04,089 --> 00:17:05,630
所以最近几个季度

427
00:17:05,630 --> 00:17:07,450
这家公司表现不佳

428
00:17:07,450 --> 00:17:09,369
这家公司做到了一点

429
00:17:09,369 --> 00:17:10,828
还记得两个月前

430
00:17:10,828 --> 00:17:12,028
Azure增长率为

431
00:17:12,028 --> 00:17:13,328
我想是三十

432
00:17:13,328 --> 00:17:14,828
八个百分点而非三

433
00:17:14,828 --> 00:17:15,628
九个百分点

434
00:17:16,788 --> 00:17:17,628
股价下跌

435
00:17:17,628 --> 00:17:20,028
我说真的

436
00:17:20,028 --> 00:17:21,068
这太荒谬了

437
00:17:21,068 --> 00:17:21,888
或者怎样

438
00:17:21,888 --> 00:17:23,509
市场有时

439
00:17:23,509 --> 00:17:25,308
当然会非理性

440
00:17:25,308 --> 00:17:28,259
尤其是在短期对长期而言

441
00:17:28,259 --> 00:17:30,660
我不认为微软会消沉

442
00:17:30,660 --> 00:17:33,720
我认为他们也会成为巨大赢家

443
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,650
在这整个AI故事中

444
00:17:35,650 --> 00:17:36,509
你怎么看

445
00:17:36,509 --> 00:17:38,609
在下方评论区告诉我

446
00:17:38,609 --> 00:17:40,390
也查看下方所有链接

447
00:17:40,390 --> 00:17:41,960
我们下期再见

评论采集失败

采集完成，该视频无弹幕