BV1s5TQ6gEYT · 美股搬运工1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,159 投资不是赌博 2 00:00:01,159 --> 00:00:03,180 而是一场有准备的突击 3 00:00:03,180 --> 00:00:04,950 我是福哥家人们 4 00:00:04,950 --> 00:00:07,710 那上周呢不少加盟啊 5 00:00:07,710 --> 00:00:10,550 看到了美股的一个集体下跌啊 6 00:00:10,550 --> 00:00:11,919 很多人就慌了啊 7 00:00:11,919 --> 00:00:13,119 疑问根源啊 8 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,599 传世mate出租闲置算力啊 9 00:00:15,599 --> 00:00:17,859 这条消息影响到了市场 10 00:00:17,859 --> 00:00:20,480 家人们就问到福哥在交友圈当中啊 11 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:22,039 是不是AI算力过剩 12 00:00:22,039 --> 00:00:24,260 MEA都开始卖算力的啊 13 00:00:24,260 --> 00:00:25,420 是不是没机会了 14 00:00:25,420 --> 00:00:27,359 存储芯片还有机会吗 15 00:00:27,359 --> 00:00:29,539 镁光闪迪要不要直接割肉 16 00:00:29,539 --> 00:00:32,619 那福哥跟大家讲一讲这次的这个下跌啊 17 00:00:32,619 --> 00:00:34,259 纯粹是一个情绪 18 00:00:34,259 --> 00:00:35,020 一个错杀 19 00:00:35,020 --> 00:00:36,799 meta买卖算力啊 20 00:00:36,799 --> 00:00:39,439 根本不会影响存储的基本面 21 00:00:39,439 --> 00:00:45,049 那下周网存储板块啊会迎来一个估值修复啊 22 00:00:45,049 --> 00:00:45,729 大家放心啊 23 00:00:45,729 --> 00:00:46,770 符合给他定心丸 24 00:00:46,770 --> 00:00:48,710 接下来就拆解一下这个原因 25 00:00:48,710 --> 00:00:51,880 首先啊这个mate的算利利空啊 26 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,020 其实是完全被误读了啊 27 00:00:54,020 --> 00:00:58,119 mate出租的是老旧闲置的GPU集群的 28 00:00:58,119 --> 00:01:00,259 这个算力都是上一代的啊 29 00:01:00,259 --> 00:01:04,239 H100H200就是英伟达的低端芯片 30 00:01:04,239 --> 00:01:06,480 最新的GB200卢比 31 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,670 mate都还是自己用 32 00:01:08,670 --> 00:01:14,170 所以mate高端算力采购是一一分预算都没减少 33 00:01:14,170 --> 00:01:17,700 它资本开支26年是1450亿美元 34 00:01:17,700 --> 00:01:19,560 而且初中算利大家知道吗 35 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:20,719 不是算力过剩 36 00:01:20,719 --> 00:01:24,799 只是盘活这些低端的这些芯片集群的 37 00:01:24,799 --> 00:01:28,000 这些限制的产能因为大模型训练啊 38 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:29,239 负载忽高忽低 39 00:01:29,239 --> 00:01:32,079 旧卡平时利用率不到50%啊 40 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:34,680 对外出租多了一个比现金流啊 41 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,680 大家可能都误以为这个mate租算力啊 42 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,899 就不会卖这个服务器不用存储了啊 43 00:01:40,899 --> 00:01:44,459 恰恰相反算利租类生意越火爆 44 00:01:44,459 --> 00:01:46,478 服务器配套大家知道啊 45 00:01:46,478 --> 00:01:49,859 HBA还有这个闪迪的企业级的SSD 46 00:01:49,859 --> 00:01:51,060 它消耗越大 47 00:01:51,060 --> 00:01:55,250 租赁业务反而增量带动这个存储的需求 48 00:01:55,250 --> 00:01:57,450 所以本次的美光啊 49 00:01:57,450 --> 00:01:58,849 闪迪的大跌啊 50 00:01:58,849 --> 00:02:02,260 只是一个高位资金的一个见消息洗盘啊 51 00:02:02,260 --> 00:02:04,480 纯粹是一个情绪踩踏啊 52 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,640 行业供需涨价周期没有任何变化 53 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,758 那我相信呢经过这周的释放以后 54 00:02:10,758 --> 00:02:11,899 那啥周呢 55 00:02:11,899 --> 00:02:15,139 特别存储会有一个快速的一个估值修复啊 56 00:02:15,139 --> 00:02:18,020 首先我们先看看美光它的技术面啊 57 00:02:18,020 --> 00:02:20,039 中长线啊也是一个上升浪 58 00:02:20,039 --> 00:02:22,539 那么经过上周的调整以后啊 59 00:02:22,539 --> 00:02:26,250 已约在950900前期有支撑 60 00:02:26,250 --> 00:02:28,629 结尾以后会突破1000 61 00:02:28,629 --> 00:02:32,229 那有机会冲击前高1200100站稳 62 00:02:32,229 --> 00:02:35,400 那有机会继续冲击这个1680啊 63 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:36,620 也是没问题的哈 64 00:02:36,620 --> 00:02:38,879 1680大家知道是瑞银啊 65 00:02:38,879 --> 00:02:41,719 给到美光的它的一个目标价啊 66 00:02:41,719 --> 00:02:42,840 这是美光了啊 67 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:44,500 而我们的那个讲闪迪 68 00:02:44,500 --> 00:02:46,180 闪迪其实跟美光哈 69 00:02:46,180 --> 00:02:47,840 其实我觉得差不多啊 70 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:52,909 美光呢也是上半年啊涨幅最大的在美股当中啊 71 00:02:52,909 --> 00:02:54,639 上半年它涨了七倍多啊 72 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,039 上周也是经历了一个大幅调整 73 00:02:57,039 --> 00:02:58,500 大家也可以关注闪迪 74 00:02:58,500 --> 00:03:02,639 前期的1600~1700啊 75 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:04,479 这个前期的一个支撑啊 76 00:03:04,479 --> 00:03:05,280 那企稳以后 77 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:09,439 那么闪迪会有机会继续冲击两千两千赞 78 00:03:09,439 --> 00:03:12,719 我以后会继续冲击前高2600 79 00:03:12,719 --> 00:03:15,199 因为2600呢也刚好是瑞银 80 00:03:15,199 --> 00:03:18,300 各大投行给到闪迪的一个目标价啊 81 00:03:18,300 --> 00:03:22,479 存存储的它的周期啊没有结束啊 82 00:03:22,479 --> 00:03:23,879 东亚你像韩国 83 00:03:23,879 --> 00:03:24,819 那像三星 84 00:03:24,819 --> 00:03:27,659 像SK海力士都在扩产 85 00:03:27,659 --> 00:03:28,900 那说明真的是缺 86 00:03:28,900 --> 00:03:32,180 现在存储缺口是到了2020欧八 87 00:03:32,180 --> 00:03:35,819 这轮的AI的存储的指数级的需求啊 88 00:03:35,819 --> 00:03:37,099 比我们想象的要大 89 00:03:37,099 --> 00:03:38,379 比我们想象的要久 90 00:03:38,379 --> 00:03:38,939 大家知道啊 91 00:03:38,939 --> 00:03:40,199 单台AI服务器 92 00:03:40,199 --> 00:03:43,699 存储消耗量是传统服务器的8~10倍 93 00:03:43,699 --> 00:03:48,740 那么训练要镁光的HBN高带宽内存推理啊 94 00:03:48,740 --> 00:03:53,560 需要海量的企业级的闪迪的SSD 95 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:55,939 就在我们全球的云创上当了 96 00:03:55,939 --> 00:03:56,840 MEA也好 97 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:57,789 微软也好 98 00:03:57,789 --> 00:03:58,650 谷歌也好 99 00:03:58,650 --> 00:03:59,669 亚马逊也好啊 100 00:03:59,669 --> 00:04:04,150 都是三到5年长期锁定它的存储的 101 00:04:04,150 --> 00:04:05,330 这些产能的啊 102 00:04:05,330 --> 00:04:07,370 大家啊就不用担心啊 103 00:04:07,370 --> 00:04:09,289 像美光它最新的财报 104 00:04:09,289 --> 00:04:11,030 那也是毛利率啊 105 00:04:11,030 --> 00:04:14,210 是突破了84% 106 00:04:14,210 --> 00:04:16,189 卖100块钱赚八十四 107 00:04:16,189 --> 00:04:17,310 英伟达都做不到 108 00:04:17,310 --> 00:04:17,829 对不对 109 00:04:17,829 --> 00:04:20,759 说明真的是共不应求啊 110 00:04:20,759 --> 00:04:24,720 这是福哥的一些看见看好存储赛道的同学们 111 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:25,699 可以封闭布局 112 00:04:25,699 --> 00:04:30,079 如果大家想知道更准确的布局时机和点位的 113 00:04:30,079 --> 00:04:30,519 家人们 114 00:04:30,519 --> 00:04:32,959 大家可以点赞关注福哥的频道啊 115 00:04:32,959 --> 00:04:34,819 峰哥会在副歌的啊 116 00:04:34,819 --> 00:04:39,959 交流圈实时的分享AI存储相关的潜力牛股的啊 117 00:04:39,959 --> 00:04:40,660 盘前策略 118 00:04:40,660 --> 00:04:44,220 还有盘前的实施的一个点位样大引在先机
评论采集失败
采集完成，该视频无弹幕