【UNRIVALED INVESTING】美光财报：暴跌50%预警！美光为何是周期陷阱？

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镁光科技股价发布惊人财报

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股价大幅上涨

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我正在重仓押注其已进入泡沫区间

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这并不令人意外

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让我们回顾一下

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我是丹尼尔

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欢迎观看《无与伦比投资》

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分析镁光财报

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你可以看到惊人增长

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从去年90亿美元销售额到最新季度410亿美元

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利润从10亿美元激增至

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90亿到280亿美元

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这是巨大爆发

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接下来继续关注

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管理层对下一季度的展望

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预计销售额达500亿美元

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持续加速增长

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持续指数级扩张

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预计每股收益约3.1美元

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大致在2.5美元左右

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本季度自由现金流300亿美元

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他们开始加大投入

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在业务上的投资力度

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以扩大产能并整体来看镁光

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许多投资者会说 wow

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这就是

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这就是股价大涨的原因

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几年前他们身处产能过剩行业

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当时还在烧自由现金流

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几年后

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预计明年自由现金流超1000亿美元

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有分析认为可能接近1500亿美元

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镁光自由现金流发生巨大波动

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自由现金流

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导致投资者认为

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是的

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估值应相应提升

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这就是镁光股价上涨约15%的原因

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今日股价

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在财报发布后

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我前几天刚做了一期视频

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指出其可能处于泡沫中

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股价已上涨约

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自视频发布以来上涨13%

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本期视频旨在重申

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我的观点并重仓看多

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从当前水平大幅回调

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在你做出

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你知道像这样的案例吗

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这就是我认为某些事物应该衰退的原因

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你应该首先理解

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为什么大家都热爱这只股票

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现在让我们结合美光科技的情况回顾看涨论点

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显然这些数据令人瞩目

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你可以看到盈利能力

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你知道的

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几年前还处于巨额烧钱阶段

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预计明年自由现金流将超百亿美元

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因此看涨论点的核心是需求远超

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整个行业的生产能力

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他们将持续多年获得强劲且积极的自由现金流

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这凸显了高带宽内存

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这种高度专业化的产品满足AI需求

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这里的需求增长正在加速

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他们正在讨论HBM技术

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可寻址市场在2028年已达百亿美元规模

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他们预测将提前至2027年

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这甚至超出预期

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他们正签订越来越多的战略客户协议

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这些是不可取消的买断协议

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这些客户最终

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需要美光的

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内存来运行

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你知道的

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他们的数据中心

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他们已承诺投入22亿美元

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他们提前支付现金以确保

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看

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我们希望未来能获得您的内存

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获取所需的比特资源

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目前当你审视这些

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你知道的

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战略协议

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目前覆盖约20%的DRAM比特或动态随机存取存储器

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以及约三分之一的NAND比特

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这并非业务主体

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但他们预计这些协议将覆盖公司营收的半数

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未来可能更多

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这是投资者关注的核心看涨逻辑

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这已不再是普通商品生产商

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这是一家深度参与行业变革的公司

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现在将基于多年协议

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提供明确的营收和盈利预期

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这正是支撑最初论点的最后环节

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如果你有需求

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你知道的

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远超供给能力

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那么需要多久才能恢复供给

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这就是管理层所说的

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我们短期内可能看不到大量新建产能

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或许要到2028年日历年后

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即便如此，美光也不认为供应能追上需求

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这将是数年高吸引力的

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自由现金流

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增长潜力期

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这是我经常收到的常见质疑

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看看当前股价

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每股约1200美元

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约141美元

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4万亿美元市值

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他们看到自由现金流

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明年可能在1000亿到1500亿美元之间

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丹尼尔这难道不显得非常便宜吗

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因为目前估值其实已处于

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假设前10倍市盈率

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自由现金流

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且增长极快

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我们将进一步探讨这种动态

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这是否真的被低估太多

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考虑到这些

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这种强劲需求

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巨大的 upside 潜力

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你知道的

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这就是我的看法

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许多投资者

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正锁定当前收益

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但他们难以预判未来趋势

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与当下相比

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稍提韦恩·格雷茨基名言

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首先需明确这不是财务建议

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这只是我对局势的看法

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有可能

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我可能看错美光

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我对局势并无明确立场

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你知道的

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我更关注周期性较弱的公司

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长期复利型企业

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顺便推荐Unrivaled投资

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迈克尔·G

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付费会员近日写道

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能与你合作非常愉快

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你绝对是实至名归

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亨利·W 所写

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我感到非常幸运

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第一本书读的是彼得·林奇的《战胜华尔街》

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而你是首位在线价值投资导师

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我找到的

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只要持续运营Unraveled服务

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我将成为终身订阅用户

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如果你在寻找有说服力的想法

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快来查看

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无与伦比的投资策略

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我也有一个独家月度视频

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我在里面分享我的顶级观点

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同时我会实时更新投资组合

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这

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你知道这是发送给无与伦比投资订阅用户的

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如果你感兴趣

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去看看吧

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无与伦比投资

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此外今年夏天

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我将提供部分教育课程

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年度订阅用户关注美光科技时

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你知道这里的情况

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管理层

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他们明确说明

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真正推动销售的因素

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他们提到DRAM约占76%

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DRAM约占其营收76%

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并实现惊人增长

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同比增长343%

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但需区分增长是来自销量还是涨价

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他们讨论了芯片出货量

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芯片出货量仅增长个位数

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而价格环比上涨约60%

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所以在分析时

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他们提到环比数据

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这一指标增长了67%

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管理层正在说明

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同样的情况适用于NAND业务

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你看到的

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这是一家宣称

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这太棒了

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全球对我们的存储产品需求巨大

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人们需要存储需求激增

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需求出现显著跃升

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我们仅能小幅增加供应

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约2-5%的个位数增长

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大约在2-5%之间

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其余增长来自提价

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这就是我理解的瓶颈

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在我看来

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天啊

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我们需要这个

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而我们只能

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仅小幅增加供应

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他们告诉你几乎所有环比增长来自涨价

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这是一个极其重要的数据点

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那么也看看正在发生的事情

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他们按业务板块进行拆分

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你可以看到是的

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显然来自其核心数据中心业务的需求

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而来自其云存储业务的需求正在呈指数级增长

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其数据中心业务同比增长了十倍

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从15亿美元增至115亿美元

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但你看移动业务和汽车业务

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它们也在以数倍速度增长

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从30亿美元增至115亿美元的汽车业务从11%到46%

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需求方面

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我认为这些市场并未呈现指数级增长

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这是供应短缺和价格飙升的动态

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这也是美光科技的风险核心

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有人会说等等

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最终供应可能会跟上

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可能不会到2027年

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可能不会到2028年

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但最终新产能会上线

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现在被你们抬高的这些客户

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他们不会忘记

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这包括哪些公司呢

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这包括苹果公司，其股价今日下跌约5-6%

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在宣布消息后

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是的

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我们必须得

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你知道的

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大幅涨价

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我们的价格将在部分iPad和Max机型上调10-20-30%

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我们从未见过

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如此大幅的价格上涨

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如此快速几乎前所未有

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所以他们说是的

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这个行业显然

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组织混乱

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通常

235
00:09:54,429 --> 00:09:57,169
不想这样损害客户利益

236
00:09:57,169 --> 00:10:00,330
这实际上是在说

237
00:10:00,330 --> 00:10:01,769
这就是恶意涨价

238
00:10:01,769 --> 00:10:03,690
因为存在供应短缺

239
00:10:03,690 --> 00:10:06,980
这就是纯粹的瓶颈定价动态

240
00:10:06,980 --> 00:10:10,279
理解需求旺盛而供应仅小幅增长时会发生什么

241
00:10:10,279 --> 00:10:12,529
供应仅小幅增长

242
00:10:12,529 --> 00:10:14,590
最终客户会说

243
00:10:14,590 --> 00:10:15,149
等等怎么回事

244
00:10:15,149 --> 00:10:16,629
我们该如何改变行为

245
00:10:16,629 --> 00:10:18,129
这是其中一种可能

246
00:10:18,129 --> 00:10:19,570
另一种可能是更多

247
00:10:19,570 --> 00:10:22,700
产能上线后，苹果说看

248
00:10:22,700 --> 00:10:25,620
我们正竭尽全力寻找解决方案

249
00:10:25,620 --> 00:10:25,980
现在

250
00:10:25,980 --> 00:10:27,279
他们在做存储器营销吗

251
00:10:27,279 --> 00:10:30,350
这是你需要思考的重要数据点

252
00:10:30,350 --> 00:10:32,590
这让我想起巴菲特

253
00:10:32,590 --> 00:10:35,450
谈到伯克希尔哈撒韦纺织产品

254
00:10:35,450 --> 00:10:35,909
你知道的

255
00:10:35,909 --> 00:10:38,350
之前只是夹克衬里

256
00:10:39,370 --> 00:10:39,769
你知道的

257
00:10:39,769 --> 00:10:44,590
他最终要退出纺织业的原因

258
00:10:44,590 --> 00:10:47,289
是因为没人买夹克

259
00:10:47,289 --> 00:10:48,129
他们说

260
00:10:48,129 --> 00:10:48,370
哦

261
00:10:48,370 --> 00:10:51,879
我要伯克希尔哈撒韦的衬里

262
00:10:51,879 --> 00:10:53,960
这只是组件输入

263
00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,889
这是夹克的成本部分

264
00:10:56,889 --> 00:11:01,289
这也是你需要思考这个视频的原因

265
00:11:01,289 --> 00:11:03,669
当人们购买新iMac时

266
00:11:03,669 --> 00:11:04,879
人们在购买

267
00:11:04,879 --> 00:11:05,960
你知道的iPhone

268
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:08,710
他们不会说

269
00:11:08,710 --> 00:11:11,330
这内存是micron的吗 不

270
00:11:11,330 --> 00:11:11,850
他们只是说

271
00:11:11,850 --> 00:11:12,429
总价是多少

272
00:11:12,429 --> 00:11:13,919
内存总量是多少

273
00:11:13,919 --> 00:11:14,740
内存容量是多少

274
00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:15,759
告诉我

275
00:11:15,759 --> 00:11:17,299
告诉我规格参数

276
00:11:17,299 --> 00:11:17,679
真的吗

277
00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:18,580
他们不关心

278
00:11:18,580 --> 00:11:19,759
内存来自micron吗

279
00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:21,210
内存来自SK海力士吗

280
00:11:21,210 --> 00:11:21,990
他们不关心

281
00:11:21,990 --> 00:11:23,849
这只是成本输入

282
00:11:23,849 --> 00:11:26,208
品牌是苹果

283
00:11:26,208 --> 00:11:28,629
苹果有权提价

284
00:11:28,629 --> 00:11:29,940
长期来看

285
00:11:29,940 --> 00:11:33,399
这种根本关系未变

286
00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:35,639
这是一家大宗商品公司

287
00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:38,980
他们通过战略协议边际调整

288
00:11:38,980 --> 00:11:41,360
但从根本上说五年后

289
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,639
很难断言

290
00:11:43,639 --> 00:11:47,679
这不会恢复之前的毛利率

291
00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,599
他们目前毛利率约86%

292
00:11:51,599 --> 00:11:54,639
这家公司曾有过负毛利率

293
00:11:54,639 --> 00:11:57,818
每年烧掉50亿美元自由现金流

294
00:11:57,818 --> 00:12:00,818
需认识到这种动态

295
00:12:00,818 --> 00:12:02,979
本质上是大宗商品产品

296
00:12:02,979 --> 00:12:03,979
人们不会说

297
00:12:03,979 --> 00:12:04,399
哦

298
00:12:04,399 --> 00:12:08,230
我更倾向micron而非其他

299
00:12:08,230 --> 00:12:08,730
你知道吗

300
00:12:08,730 --> 00:12:11,090
内存供应商通常

301
00:12:11,580 --> 00:12:14,750
至少在你选购苹果产品时

302
00:12:14,990 --> 00:12:16,970
另一个需要考虑的关键因素

303
00:12:16,970 --> 00:12:17,669
你知道的

304
00:12:17,669 --> 00:12:22,039
人们都在谈论这些战略客户协议啊

305
00:12:22,039 --> 00:12:23,600
这是业务的根本性转变

306
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:24,220
所以管理层

307
00:12:24,220 --> 00:12:24,480
表示

308
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:24,639
是的

309
00:12:24,639 --> 00:12:26,120
这些都是五年期协议

310
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:27,200
所以说到日历

311
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:27,360
两

312
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,080
二十六到三十

313
00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:33,740
他们预计约半数营收将来自这些SCA

314
00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:39,519
这些战略协议目前占比约20%

315
00:12:39,519 --> 00:12:41,720
我认为有必要反思这一点

316
00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,539
所以你看这个大数字

317
00:12:43,539 --> 00:12:45,519
看基于这些协议

318
00:12:45,519 --> 00:12:47,309
我们已签署十六份

319
00:12:47,509 --> 00:12:50,289
累计营收以最低价格计算

320
00:12:50,289 --> 00:12:52,370
这将改变他们的盈利能力

321
00:12:52,370 --> 00:12:54,950
未来几年不会出现现金消耗

322
00:12:54,950 --> 00:12:56,629
由于这些新协议

323
00:12:56,629 --> 00:12:59,529
合同中设定了最低价格

324
00:12:59,529 --> 00:13:05,809
预计剩余合同期内将获得1000亿美元

325
00:13:05,809 --> 00:13:10,909
之所以强调1000亿美元的重要性在于

326
00:13:10,909 --> 00:13:16,950
他们目前指引本季度销售额约500亿美元

327
00:13:16,950 --> 00:13:18,190
按年化计算

328
00:13:18,190 --> 00:13:23,500
相当于年销售额约2000亿美元

329
00:13:23,500 --> 00:13:23,740
现在

330
00:13:23,740 --> 00:13:26,269
这将是巨大的增长

331
00:13:26,269 --> 00:13:27,190
但需注意

332
00:13:27,190 --> 00:13:28,830
即使在峰值环境中

333
00:13:28,830 --> 00:13:34,809
他们仅锁定五年1000亿美元合同

334
00:13:34,809 --> 00:13:38,450
即每年约200亿美元

335
00:13:38,909 --> 00:13:45,350
与预期的2000亿美元相比

336
00:13:45,350 --> 00:13:49,710
这显示已承诺金额

337
00:13:49,710 --> 00:13:52,330
远不足以让人认为

338
00:13:52,330 --> 00:13:52,870
哦

339
00:13:52,870 --> 00:13:56,710
这将永远保持超高利润率

340
00:13:56,710 --> 00:13:59,129
在我看来有很大可能

341
00:13:59,129 --> 00:14:01,470
我认为可能

342
00:14:01,470 --> 00:14:09,570
我认为有超过50%几率该公司五年后毛利率低于50%

343
00:14:09,570 --> 00:14:12,840
由于可能新增的供应量

344
00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:13,259
是的

345
00:14:13,259 --> 00:14:14,679
需求将呈指数级增长

346
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,318
大家普遍预期如此

347
00:14:16,318 --> 00:14:18,479
或许模型会相应调整

348
00:14:18,479 --> 00:14:19,899
他们不需要那么多内存

349
00:14:19,899 --> 00:14:22,188
谁知道有些人可能会说

350
00:14:22,188 --> 00:14:22,528
丹尼尔

351
00:14:22,528 --> 00:14:22,928
你知道的

352
00:14:22,928 --> 00:14:24,028
你根本不知道自己在说什么

353
00:14:24,028 --> 00:14:25,928
需求只会呈指数级增长

354
00:14:25,928 --> 00:14:27,210
这可能没错

355
00:14:27,210 --> 00:14:30,929
但人类历史与资源稀缺性

356
00:14:30,929 --> 00:14:31,450
你知道的

357
00:14:31,450 --> 00:14:31,669
这些

358
00:14:31,669 --> 00:14:36,889
这些瓶颈案例通常涉及资本周期

359
00:14:36,889 --> 00:14:40,629
通常会出现大量产能扩张

360
00:14:40,629 --> 00:14:43,908
然后会发生什么 你看到价格下跌

361
00:14:43,908 --> 00:14:45,568
看到利润率被压缩

362
00:14:45,568 --> 00:14:49,700
从多维度来看这是普遍现象

363
00:14:49,700 --> 00:14:52,440
投资者需要考虑另一个角度

364
00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:53,559
尤其是对于微芯科技

365
00:14:53,559 --> 00:14:54,799
牛市需要思考

366
00:14:54,799 --> 00:14:56,269
等等等等

367
00:14:56,269 --> 00:14:58,929
你有微软

368
00:14:58,929 --> 00:14:59,409
亚马逊

369
00:14:59,409 --> 00:14:59,950
谷歌

370
00:14:59,950 --> 00:15:01,230
Meta戴尔

371
00:15:01,230 --> 00:15:02,009
OpenAI

372
00:15:02,009 --> 00:15:02,970
Anthropic

373
00:15:02,970 --> 00:15:08,049
它们都在确保现金流流向微芯

374
00:15:08,049 --> 00:15:09,169
他们必须确保拥有

375
00:15:09,169 --> 00:15:09,750
你知道的

376
00:15:09,750 --> 00:15:10,730
甲骨文

377
00:15:10,730 --> 00:15:12,850
你可以继续列举更多公司

378
00:15:12,850 --> 00:15:14,220
英伟达

379
00:15:14,220 --> 00:15:16,179
他们都想说

380
00:15:16,179 --> 00:15:18,309
我们需要在这里保持内存供应

381
00:15:18,309 --> 00:15:19,269
其中部分原因是

382
00:15:19,269 --> 00:15:19,990
你知道的

383
00:15:19,990 --> 00:15:20,669
关乎存亡

384
00:15:20,669 --> 00:15:21,789
我们必须拥有这个

385
00:15:21,789 --> 00:15:23,139
否则可能引发问题

386
00:15:23,139 --> 00:15:23,720
如果你是苹果

387
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:24,259
你会说

388
00:15:24,259 --> 00:15:25,879
没有内存就卖不出产品

389
00:15:25,879 --> 00:15:29,019
这对业务至关重要

390
00:15:33,899 --> 00:15:35,820
当审视这种动态时

391
00:15:35,820 --> 00:15:37,220
你可能会想

392
00:15:38,419 --> 00:15:44,700
这家供应商本季度价格暴涨60%

393
00:15:44,700 --> 00:15:50,339
我们真的需要继续增加内存需求吗

394
00:15:50,339 --> 00:15:53,879
是否有人会突然想到

395
00:15:53,879 --> 00:15:56,659
投资回报率已无意义

396
00:15:56,659 --> 00:15:57,539
此时此刻

397
00:15:57,539 --> 00:15:59,299
是否存在价格临界点

398
00:15:59,299 --> 00:16:01,919
内存价格会涨到这个程度

399
00:16:01,919 --> 00:16:03,320
你知道呈指数级增长

400
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,809
你开始看到需求影响

401
00:16:06,809 --> 00:16:08,450
需求开始出现的地方

402
00:16:08,450 --> 00:16:10,049
你知道会稍微放缓

403
00:16:10,049 --> 00:16:10,889
我不知道

404
00:16:10,889 --> 00:16:17,239
但商品的历史表明，当价格飙升时

405
00:16:17,239 --> 00:16:19,419
正如你现在看到的

406
00:16:19,659 --> 00:16:20,899
人们通常会说

407
00:16:20,899 --> 00:16:21,139
好的

408
00:16:21,139 --> 00:16:21,559
嗯

409
00:16:21,559 --> 00:16:22,740
我们是否推迟

410
00:16:22,740 --> 00:16:24,259
我们能否找到替代品

411
00:16:24,259 --> 00:16:25,860
会发生什么

412
00:16:26,509 --> 00:16:27,729
值得思考的问题

413
00:16:27,729 --> 00:16:28,749
拭目以待

414
00:16:28,749 --> 00:16:30,589
当我谈到闪速（Flash）

415
00:16:30,589 --> 00:16:31,668
我的免费使用

416
00:16:31,668 --> 00:16:33,379
AI助手

417
00:16:33,379 --> 00:16:34,700
你甚至可以自己查看

418
00:16:34,700 --> 00:16:36,500
它会分析全球任何股票

419
00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:37,320
演示

420
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:37,820
播客

421
00:16:37,820 --> 00:16:38,620
无论你想了解什么

422
00:16:38,620 --> 00:16:40,339
在了解一家公司时

423
00:16:40,339 --> 00:16:41,639
它对美光科技的看法

424
00:16:41,639 --> 00:16:45,600
基于对其最新财报的分析同样悲观

425
00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:46,340
说啊

426
00:16:46,340 --> 00:16:50,480
这在基准情景下可能有50%以上的下行空间

427
00:16:54,539 --> 00:16:57,519
假设存在某种长期AI超级周期

428
00:16:57,519 --> 00:17:00,208
你可以在下方链接查看完整报告

429
00:17:00,208 --> 00:17:05,509
如果你想阅读最前沿AI模型对美光科技的看法

430
00:17:05,509 --> 00:17:07,138
就在闪速（Flash）

431
00:17:07,138 --> 00:17:16,890
我认为投资者应反思的最后一点是如何评估周期性公司

432
00:17:17,308 --> 00:17:19,509
彼得·林奇曾谈到这一点

433
00:17:19,509 --> 00:17:21,868
对于不熟悉的人来说

434
00:17:21,868 --> 00:17:23,909
他是著名且非常成功的

435
00:17:23,909 --> 00:17:24,980
呃

436
00:17:24,980 --> 00:17:28,200
在我看来，他是价值成长型投资者

437
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,779
或GARP投资者拥有卓越业绩

438
00:17:32,819 --> 00:17:36,589
他对周期性股票的评论

439
00:17:36,589 --> 00:17:39,289
我认为对投资者很有帮助

440
00:17:39,289 --> 00:17:42,829
通常人们会关注周期性股票

441
00:17:42,829 --> 00:17:46,240
看到市盈率较低

442
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,140
这可能正是关键点

443
00:17:49,140 --> 00:17:51,900
我引用林奇的观点，当达到这一点时

444
00:17:51,900 --> 00:17:55,019
当你看到低市盈率

445
00:17:55,019 --> 00:17:56,979
或低自由现金流倍数

446
00:17:58,058 --> 00:18:03,028
这正是最危险且最具迷惑性的时候

447
00:18:03,028 --> 00:18:08,150
因为你说这不是便宜吗 看这个低倍数

448
00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:14,660
但这就是盈利部分开始承压前的时刻

449
00:18:14,660 --> 00:18:15,599
比如说

450
00:18:15,599 --> 00:18:22,359
Micron的毛利率会从86%降至40%

451
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,720
周期性行业的最佳投资时机

452
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:26,440
如果你要这么做的话

453
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,880
我个人不喜欢投资周期性行业

454
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:29,680
这根本就不是我的游戏

455
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,500
我本人更倾向于

456
00:18:31,500 --> 00:18:35,880
投资那些我相信能持续增长的公司

457
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,199
拥有我真正欣赏的管理团队

458
00:18:38,199 --> 00:18:41,358
你知道这是他们毕生的事业

459
00:18:41,358 --> 00:18:41,898
或者

460
00:18:41,898 --> 00:18:44,960
这是他们建立这个组织的骄傲

461
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:51,240
考虑周期性行业的机会再次出现

462
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:52,559
这不是原创观点

463
00:18:52,559 --> 00:18:54,779
这也曾在《资本回报》中被讨论

464
00:18:54,779 --> 00:18:59,888
当资本正在撤离该行业时

465
00:18:59,888 --> 00:19:02,148
存在巨大的现金消耗

466
00:19:02,148 --> 00:19:03,509
然后人们会说

467
00:19:03,509 --> 00:19:04,189
天啊

468
00:19:04,189 --> 00:19:08,200
我要以低于账面价值的价格买入

469
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:09,839
这不是你在这里看到的情况

470
00:19:09,839 --> 00:19:10,940
你在这里看到的是

471
00:19:10,940 --> 00:19:13,299
人们在进行外推预测

472
00:19:13,740 --> 00:19:16,638
可能的峰值盈利水平

473
00:19:17,078 --> 00:19:17,598
你知道的

474
00:19:17,598 --> 00:19:18,778
或许盈利会

475
00:19:18,778 --> 00:19:20,278
你知道达到两百亿美元

476
00:19:21,318 --> 00:19:25,859
两百亿与一千四百亿美元市值对比

477
00:19:25,859 --> 00:19:28,339
人们会说丹尼尔斯这不超值吗

478
00:19:28,339 --> 00:19:29,000
再次强调

479
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,190
你需要内化这个模型

480
00:19:31,190 --> 00:19:38,000
即该业务长期稳定的自由现金流是多少

481
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:42,809
我认为不会达到每年两百亿

482
00:19:42,809 --> 00:19:43,450
我不

483
00:19:43,450 --> 00:19:47,470
年百亿美元都算惊喜

484
00:19:47,470 --> 00:19:51,640
这正是Micron将面临的根本挑战

485
00:19:56,049 --> 00:20:00,898
有很大可能创造可观的自由现金流

486
00:20:00,898 --> 00:20:04,519
我认为大家都知道趋势已转变

487
00:20:04,519 --> 00:20:07,400
问题是第五到十年

488
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,359
自由现金流会如何表现

489
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:10,949
这才是我质疑的

490
00:20:10,949 --> 00:20:13,509
那些巨微科技的粉丝们说

491
00:20:13,509 --> 00:20:13,848
丹尼尔斯

492
00:20:13,848 --> 00:20:15,729
你在视频里太疯狂了

493
00:20:15,729 --> 00:20:18,839
我很想听听你的评论

494
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,440
你知道你认为的

495
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:29,009
Micron五年到十年的自由现金流实际如何

496
00:20:29,009 --> 00:20:34,089
认识到这可能更偏向周期性公司

497
00:20:34,089 --> 00:20:35,369
你现在正在看到

498
00:20:35,369 --> 00:20:37,190
此刻你正看着它，就像在说嘿

499
00:20:37,190 --> 00:20:39,309
价格需求仍然存在

500
00:20:39,309 --> 00:20:43,839
供应仅小幅增长，但价格呈指数级上涨

501
00:20:43,839 --> 00:20:45,200
你知道你能

502
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,440
即使你想开玩笑

503
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,240
甚至可以说

504
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,220
以最前沿的AI模型为例

505
00:20:50,220 --> 00:20:51,079
是什么在驱动

506
00:20:51,079 --> 00:20:51,819
这一切

507
00:20:51,819 --> 00:20:52,619
说吧

508
00:20:52,619 --> 00:20:59,609
你认为Micron未来十年的累计自由现金流是多少

509
00:20:59,609 --> 00:21:01,009
我惊讶于看到

510
00:21:01,009 --> 00:21:02,069
你的答案

511
00:21:02,069 --> 00:21:04,289
仅使用最先进的AI模型

512
00:21:04,289 --> 00:21:05,369
所以你知道

513
00:21:05,369 --> 00:21:08,450
使用Opus四点八版本

514
00:21:08,450 --> 00:21:10,910
你知道ChatGPT五五

515
00:21:10,910 --> 00:21:12,839
如果你能获取

516
00:21:12,839 --> 00:21:14,640
让大多数人能

517
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:15,640
已被限制

518
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,380
但我的观点是即使使用这些模型

519
00:21:18,380 --> 00:21:19,140
你知道

520
00:21:19,140 --> 00:21:20,640
不要使用那些

521
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:21,299
你知道

522
00:21:21,299 --> 00:21:23,039
在俳句中你会得到一些

523
00:21:23,039 --> 00:21:23,460
你知道

524
00:21:23,460 --> 00:21:24,059
疯狂的

525
00:21:24,059 --> 00:21:26,640
这将达到万亿亿美元

526
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,769
你提问

527
00:21:28,769 --> 00:21:29,970
我认为你会

528
00:21:29,970 --> 00:21:30,670
哦好的

529
00:21:30,670 --> 00:21:33,650
即使是AI模型也无法预见

530
00:21:33,650 --> 00:21:37,519
极有可能你正在生成

531
00:21:37,519 --> 00:21:40,789
假设未来十年自由现金流达一万亿

532
00:21:40,789 --> 00:21:44,170
我认为最前沿的AI模型会同意

533
00:21:44,170 --> 00:21:44,679
是的

534
00:21:44,679 --> 00:21:46,199
你将经历一两年

535
00:21:46,199 --> 00:21:47,398
更接近一百亿

536
00:21:47,398 --> 00:21:48,618
或许两百亿

537
00:21:48,618 --> 00:21:52,199
但之后有很大可能面临压力

538
00:21:52,199 --> 00:21:56,690
因为a他们投资扩产的供应量

539
00:21:56,690 --> 00:21:58,920
以及b价格下行风险

540
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,500
你知道价格可能承压

541
00:22:00,500 --> 00:22:04,720
或c其他供应商加入

542
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:05,819
这些是担忧点

543
00:22:05,819 --> 00:22:08,359
希望这段视频对你有帮助

544
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:08,759
如果是的话

545
00:22:08,759 --> 00:22:10,299
请务必点个赞

546
00:22:10,299 --> 00:22:11,420
点击订阅按钮

547
00:22:11,420 --> 00:22:12,539
非常感谢您的观看

548
00:22:12,539 --> 00:22:14,619
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