BV1vdML6bEkB · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:00,420 大家好 2 00:00:00,420 --> 00:00:03,819 我是老李美股首席金牌技师 3 00:00:03,819 --> 00:00:05,019 熟悉的环境 4 00:00:05,019 --> 00:00:05,980 熟悉的味道 5 00:00:05,980 --> 00:00:07,679 欢迎大家回来 6 00:00:07,679 --> 00:00:09,779 今天呢咱们西瓜到位 7 00:00:09,779 --> 00:00:11,500 我的绿色战袍到位 8 00:00:11,500 --> 00:00:13,960 颜值跟发型呢也到位 9 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,280 心灵马杀鸡正式回归 10 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:18,679 我的上一期视频啊 11 00:00:18,679 --> 00:00:22,410 是一个月之前6月8号发的啊 12 00:00:22,410 --> 00:00:24,370 今天呢正好是7月8号 13 00:00:24,370 --> 00:00:25,649 一个月的时间里面 14 00:00:25,649 --> 00:00:27,920 大家过得怎么样呢 15 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:32,098 今天这期视频我会呃跟大家首先来看 16 00:00:32,098 --> 00:00:33,798 在这一个月期间 17 00:00:33,798 --> 00:00:36,359 我账户都发生了哪些变化 18 00:00:36,359 --> 00:00:40,299 我减仓以及加仓了哪些股票 19 00:00:40,299 --> 00:00:44,609 同时呢我会对最近啊这这个美股的行情啊 20 00:00:44,609 --> 00:00:47,819 来做一波啊分析跟解读 21 00:00:47,819 --> 00:00:50,459 那么现在呢也已经来到了7月份 22 00:00:50,459 --> 00:00:53,698 2026的下半年已经正式开启 23 00:00:53,698 --> 00:00:57,539 那接下来这股市啊啊会何去何从呢 24 00:00:57,539 --> 00:01:03,479 我会对这个啊接下来这个股市美股的走势啊 25 00:01:03,479 --> 00:01:06,859 啊做一波大致的分析跟推演 26 00:01:06,859 --> 00:01:09,439 我录这个视频现在还在盘中 27 00:01:09,439 --> 00:01:11,219 股市呢还在波动 28 00:01:11,219 --> 00:01:12,760 那截至目前来看呢 29 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,900 美股三大指数都是红的啊 30 00:01:15,900 --> 00:01:17,700 那么我账户呢啊 31 00:01:17,700 --> 00:01:22,420 截至目前是下跌了1300多美金啊 32 00:01:22,420 --> 00:01:27,260 当前的账户总资产是在31万2900多 33 00:01:27,260 --> 00:01:30,590 我一个月之前发最后一期视频的时候 34 00:01:30,590 --> 00:01:32,430 那个时候我记得我的账户啊 35 00:01:32,430 --> 00:01:34,620 也是在哎31万多啊 36 00:01:34,620 --> 00:01:35,680 31万多 37 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,799 那现在呢还是31万多 38 00:01:37,799 --> 00:01:39,209 其实我这个账户啊 39 00:01:39,209 --> 00:01:41,609 在过去的这一个月的时间里面 40 00:01:41,609 --> 00:01:44,900 整体的变化啊不是很大 41 00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:48,560 这里显示的是我在过去这一个月的时间里 42 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:51,480 这个账户所有的交易记录啊 43 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,439 啊那么在过去这一个月呢 44 00:01:53,439 --> 00:01:57,319 我是啊卖出减仓了十股啊 45 00:01:57,319 --> 00:01:58,400 AAMD啊 46 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,930 卖出的价格呢是583 47 00:02:00,930 --> 00:02:05,129 然后加仓了一共是十股的微软啊 48 00:02:05,129 --> 00:02:08,909 啊额买入的价格呢啊分别在这个位置啊 49 00:02:08,909 --> 00:02:09,590 都有显示 50 00:02:09,590 --> 00:02:11,669 我就不跟大家去一一去读了 51 00:02:11,669 --> 00:02:17,509 然后呢还额加仓了五股的这个甲骨文啊 52 00:02:17,509 --> 00:02:20,449 还加仓了20股的奈飞 53 00:02:20,449 --> 00:02:24,819 减仓AMD呢就是按照我之前的原计划去执行 54 00:02:24,819 --> 00:02:26,300 我在之前的视频里呢 55 00:02:26,300 --> 00:02:30,849 也跟大家啊通知了我的这个AAMD的减仓计划 56 00:02:30,849 --> 00:02:32,490 那么到现在为止呢 57 00:02:32,490 --> 00:02:34,889 我还有80股的AAMD啊 58 00:02:34,889 --> 00:02:38,039 最初啊啊老观众应该知道我的这个AAMD啊 59 00:02:38,039 --> 00:02:39,180 是120股 60 00:02:39,180 --> 00:02:41,039 那么分批减仓了啊 61 00:02:41,039 --> 00:02:41,750 好几次 62 00:02:41,750 --> 00:02:45,539 现在呢咱们最后还剩下80股的AMD啊 63 00:02:45,539 --> 00:02:46,139 就这样啊 64 00:02:46,139 --> 00:02:47,319 减仓完了之后 65 00:02:47,319 --> 00:02:50,080 咱们把AMD的仓位已经砍了13了 66 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:54,539 这个AMD呢在我整个账户里面还是第一大的仓位 67 00:02:54,539 --> 00:02:57,979 减仓的原因呢主要还是就两点啊 68 00:02:57,979 --> 00:02:59,620 一是仓位控制 69 00:02:59,620 --> 00:03:01,259 二呢是估值 70 00:03:01,259 --> 00:03:02,259 大家也知道啊 71 00:03:02,259 --> 00:03:05,900 最近这个半导体芯片板块跟这个存储板块啊 72 00:03:05,900 --> 00:03:08,120 它的啊波动是非常大的 73 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,960 上上下下经常是跟这种坐过山车一样 74 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,000 坐电梯一样 75 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:12,800 一会儿上去 76 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:13,819 一会下来 77 00:03:13,819 --> 00:03:17,030 如果啊你账户里的半导体芯片股 78 00:03:17,030 --> 00:03:19,310 或者是存储的这类股票啊 79 00:03:19,310 --> 00:03:21,210 仓位太大太多的话 80 00:03:21,210 --> 00:03:25,060 那么你的这个小心脏呢就很容易受不了啊 81 00:03:25,060 --> 00:03:28,819 就可能会忍受不了这种啊疯狂的波动 82 00:03:28,819 --> 00:03:31,060 那么在这种疯狂的波动情况下呢 83 00:03:31,060 --> 00:03:32,539 你仓位还很大 84 00:03:32,539 --> 00:03:35,280 就可能会导致你去做一些骚操作 85 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,180 所以我的第一个啊目的呢 86 00:03:37,180 --> 00:03:41,080 就是把啊这个AMD的仓位先给降下来 87 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,889 这样子呢我会呃才能更好的去呃持有 88 00:03:44,889 --> 00:03:48,090 我剩下的这部分这个AAMD的仓位 89 00:03:48,090 --> 00:03:50,580 从最初的120股AAMD 90 00:03:50,580 --> 00:03:53,379 减到了现在剩下的这80股 91 00:03:53,379 --> 00:03:56,539 那么我在AAMD这支股票上的这个成本啊 92 00:03:56,539 --> 00:03:58,580 就已经全部拿回来了 93 00:03:58,580 --> 00:04:01,680 也就是说现在剩余的这80股AAMD啊 94 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,539 就是纯盈利在跑啊 95 00:04:03,539 --> 00:04:06,000 也就是说AAMD哪怕股价跌到零 96 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,889 我在AAMD这支股票上呢也不可能赔钱了 97 00:04:09,889 --> 00:04:11,250 减仓的第二个原因呢 98 00:04:11,250 --> 00:04:12,969 就是我刚才说到的估值 99 00:04:12,969 --> 00:04:14,509 那么从估值上来看 100 00:04:14,509 --> 00:04:19,399 AMD当前它的估值倍数啊已经是非常高了啊 101 00:04:19,399 --> 00:04:22,480 目前呢AAMD它的trailing p e是172 102 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,418 forward p e呢是73 103 00:04:24,418 --> 00:04:27,278 除了对AAMD进行了减仓之外呢 104 00:04:27,278 --> 00:04:29,119 在过去一个月的时间里 105 00:04:29,119 --> 00:04:31,810 我加仓了微软这支股票 106 00:04:31,810 --> 00:04:35,310 这个啊也是按照我的原计划去进行加仓 107 00:04:35,310 --> 00:04:36,689 在之前的视频里呢 108 00:04:36,689 --> 00:04:39,639 我也跟大家啊做过这个通知 109 00:04:39,639 --> 00:04:43,560 那么微软呢我一共是分了三次啊进行加仓 110 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,399 刚才的这个所有交易记录呢 111 00:04:45,399 --> 00:04:47,220 都跟大家啊亮出来了 112 00:04:47,220 --> 00:04:50,310 那微软呢我是从之前的40股 113 00:04:50,310 --> 00:04:52,490 加到了现在的50股啊 114 00:04:52,490 --> 00:04:53,750 在上一期视频里面 115 00:04:53,750 --> 00:04:54,589 我也跟大家说 116 00:04:54,589 --> 00:04:58,670 我微软呢呃设定的目标仓位就是50股啊 117 00:04:58,670 --> 00:04:59,949 加到50股之后 118 00:04:59,949 --> 00:05:01,649 我就啊停手了 119 00:05:01,649 --> 00:05:04,548 那么微软这支股票呢啊短期之内啊 120 00:05:04,548 --> 00:05:09,689 我就没有啊任何的啊这个操作计划了 121 00:05:09,689 --> 00:05:10,970 就是这50股啊 122 00:05:10,970 --> 00:05:14,350 我会去继续啊啊持有 123 00:05:14,350 --> 00:05:15,670 除了微软之外呢 124 00:05:15,670 --> 00:05:19,430 我还对甲骨文这支股票啊进行了少量的加仓 125 00:05:19,430 --> 00:05:23,279 从之前的40股加到了现在的45股 126 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,319 在过去这一个月的时间里呢 127 00:05:25,319 --> 00:05:28,500 甲骨文这支股票可以说是非常的惨烈啊 128 00:05:28,500 --> 00:05:30,689 啊股价一路下杀 129 00:05:30,689 --> 00:05:34,850 这个主要原因呢是他在6月10号的时候啊 130 00:05:34,850 --> 00:05:36,689 发了财报业绩 131 00:05:36,689 --> 00:05:41,379 那么这份财报业绩啊就是成绩还是不错的啊 132 00:05:41,379 --> 00:05:41,860 盈利啊 133 00:05:41,860 --> 00:05:42,500 EPS啊 134 00:05:42,500 --> 00:05:43,759 各项指标都不错 135 00:05:43,759 --> 00:05:45,639 但是呢在这次财报上 136 00:05:45,639 --> 00:05:51,579 公司呢啊又宣布了这个呃进一步加大啊 137 00:05:51,579 --> 00:05:53,410 AI资本支出啊 138 00:05:53,410 --> 00:05:55,529 就是他这个宣公布出来的 139 00:05:55,529 --> 00:05:57,290 AI资本支出的这个数字啊 140 00:05:57,290 --> 00:05:59,408 是远高于华尔街预期的 141 00:05:59,408 --> 00:06:00,848 那这一项一公布呢 142 00:06:00,848 --> 00:06:03,048 又撞到华尔街的这个枪口上了 143 00:06:03,048 --> 00:06:06,860 那大家知道我之前之前视频里也跟大家经常说 144 00:06:06,860 --> 00:06:11,339 这个华尔街目前啊是对这个AI资本支出这件事 145 00:06:11,339 --> 00:06:12,399 非常的敏感 146 00:06:12,399 --> 00:06:15,040 你只要提到啊要加大AI资本支出 147 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,899 那么就要对你的股价呢进行打压 148 00:06:17,899 --> 00:06:19,699 但是呢这件事儿啊 149 00:06:19,699 --> 00:06:24,079 这个啊他的长对这些科技大厂的长期影响呢 150 00:06:24,079 --> 00:06:26,079 我在之前的视频视频里面 151 00:06:26,079 --> 00:06:29,639 也跟大家做过详细的分析跟论述啊 152 00:06:29,639 --> 00:06:33,720 就是如果说这件这个AI增大AI资本支出这件事 153 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,740 对这些科技大厂都是长期利空的话 154 00:06:36,740 --> 00:06:39,899 那为什么这些啊所有的这些科技巨头 155 00:06:39,899 --> 00:06:42,089 科技大厂都在啊 156 00:06:42,089 --> 00:06:44,170 嗯每个季度都在宣布 157 00:06:44,170 --> 00:06:47,319 要进进一步的去加大AI资本支出呢 158 00:06:47,319 --> 00:06:49,360 所以说甲骨文这支股票啊 159 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:53,949 短期之内股价可能还会啊继续承压 160 00:06:53,949 --> 00:06:55,629 但是长期来看呢 161 00:06:55,629 --> 00:06:59,629 啊我认为啊啊股价是能够啊反弹的 162 00:06:59,629 --> 00:07:02,329 就是说能够慢慢啊涨上来的 163 00:07:02,329 --> 00:07:05,509 那我在啊前一阵子也是对甲骨文啊 164 00:07:05,509 --> 00:07:08,209 先进行了一个少量的加仓啊 165 00:07:08,209 --> 00:07:09,519 先加了五股 166 00:07:09,519 --> 00:07:10,660 那么接下来呢 167 00:07:10,660 --> 00:07:13,800 现在这个甲骨文在我整个账户里的仓位啊 168 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,199 还非常的小啊 169 00:07:15,199 --> 00:07:18,959 大家看这个仓位占比只有2% 170 00:07:18,959 --> 00:07:21,160 那么接下来在下方这条线 171 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,300 也就是135以下 172 00:07:23,300 --> 00:07:27,920 我会对我的甲骨文股票呢去啊继续进行加仓 173 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,259 还有一只加仓的股票呢就是奈飞 174 00:07:30,259 --> 00:07:32,759 奈飞我加仓了20股啊 175 00:07:32,759 --> 00:07:35,720 从之前的50股加到了现在的70股 176 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:36,000 呃 177 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,449 这个奈飞呢在我整个投资组合里的仓位啊 178 00:07:39,449 --> 00:07:41,860 现在也是啊非常的小 179 00:07:41,860 --> 00:07:44,920 仓位占比呢啊是还不到2% 180 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:46,399 只有1.7% 181 00:07:46,399 --> 00:07:47,240 这支股票呢 182 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,800 也是按照我之前的原计划去进行加仓 183 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,790 因为在呃上次的视频里面 184 00:07:53,790 --> 00:07:55,069 我跟大家通知啊 185 00:07:55,069 --> 00:07:57,490 我说呃奈飞啊 186 00:07:57,490 --> 00:08:00,230 如果是跌到75以下 187 00:08:00,230 --> 00:08:02,649 我会先进行一次加仓啊 188 00:08:02,649 --> 00:08:06,220 那我好在前一阵子呢在这个73的附近啊 189 00:08:06,220 --> 00:08:08,350 先加仓了一次奈飞 190 00:08:08,350 --> 00:08:11,230 那么接下来呢奈飞再加仓的话啊 191 00:08:11,230 --> 00:08:12,430 我会在这条线 192 00:08:12,430 --> 00:08:15,709 也就是下方这个支撑位70以下啊 193 00:08:15,709 --> 00:08:17,728 其实以下会对啊 194 00:08:17,728 --> 00:08:21,389 我的这个奈飞股票呢再进一步的去进行加仓啊 195 00:08:21,389 --> 00:08:22,589 有任何操作的话 196 00:08:22,589 --> 00:08:25,430 也会在视频当中及时通知大家 197 00:08:25,430 --> 00:08:27,029 说完了我的账户之后呢 198 00:08:27,029 --> 00:08:30,389 接下来咱们来聊聊当前的股市行情 199 00:08:30,389 --> 00:08:31,990 从技术面上来看呢 200 00:08:31,990 --> 00:08:36,759 道指啊目前的技术形态是啊非常不错的 201 00:08:36,759 --> 00:08:38,879 整个趋势都是向上的 202 00:08:38,879 --> 00:08:42,129 在一个上升的啊这个通道当中 203 00:08:42,129 --> 00:08:44,610 但是纳指呢就没那么美丽了 204 00:08:44,610 --> 00:08:48,059 大家看纳指的这个呃技术形态啊 205 00:08:48,059 --> 00:08:52,019 最近这段时间呢呃呈现出了这种就是高点 206 00:08:52,019 --> 00:08:54,379 也就是说咱们所谓的这个波峰啊 207 00:08:54,379 --> 00:08:57,779 是我不断的在下降 208 00:08:57,779 --> 00:09:00,679 就是每一次的高点呢在不断变低 209 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,840 接下来很可能会继续按照这样一种态势去走啊 210 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:08,850 那就是大概率会走出这样一个啊曲线 211 00:09:08,850 --> 00:09:11,500 或者是叫形态吧 212 00:09:11,500 --> 00:09:15,740 那么下方啊纳指在下方有一个比较强的支撑位 213 00:09:15,740 --> 00:09:17,499 是在这条黄线 214 00:09:17,499 --> 00:09:19,938 也就是2万5000点啊 215 00:09:19,938 --> 00:09:23,320 这个支撑位还是比较强劲的啊 216 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:24,840 就是说只要钠酯啊 217 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:29,049 它按照啊这个每一次的高点还是更低啊 218 00:09:29,049 --> 00:09:30,250 继续往下走的话 219 00:09:30,250 --> 00:09:33,169 只要不跌破2万5000点的支撑位啊 220 00:09:33,169 --> 00:09:34,009 都还好 221 00:09:34,009 --> 00:09:35,830 但如果一旦跌破的话 222 00:09:35,830 --> 00:09:38,389 那么可能接下来就去直接啊 223 00:09:38,389 --> 00:09:40,799 再往下去下探呃 224 00:09:40,799 --> 00:09:43,879 下面的这个2万4000点的支撑位 225 00:09:43,879 --> 00:09:44,519 当然了 226 00:09:44,519 --> 00:09:48,259 我们最希望看到的一种情况就是纳指啊啊 227 00:09:48,259 --> 00:09:49,739 不跌破呃 228 00:09:49,739 --> 00:09:51,578 2万5000点这个支撑位 229 00:09:51,578 --> 00:09:55,080 然后呢啊他继续按照刚才我说的这种啊 230 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,629 每一次的高点更低的这种态势去走也没有问题 231 00:09:58,629 --> 00:10:00,070 只要不跌破2万5 232 00:10:00,070 --> 00:10:03,710 然后它总有一天会向上反弹 233 00:10:03,710 --> 00:10:07,440 突破之前的这种这个区间这种形态 234 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:09,100 那么就可能接下来啊 235 00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:11,929 这个股市啊会形成一定的反转 236 00:10:11,929 --> 00:10:13,769 我们再来看标普百指数 237 00:10:13,769 --> 00:10:16,389 标普500指数的技术形态呢啊 238 00:10:16,389 --> 00:10:18,929 比纳指呢稍微要好一些 239 00:10:18,929 --> 00:10:22,470 它呈现的是一个这种每一次的高点呢啊 240 00:10:22,470 --> 00:10:24,320 在逐渐呃下降 241 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,639 但是每一次的低点也就是低谷啊 242 00:10:27,639 --> 00:10:31,500 在啊不断升高的这样一种呃形态 243 00:10:31,500 --> 00:10:34,039 那么照这样去一直走下去呢 244 00:10:34,039 --> 00:10:36,519 这个区间会变得越来越窄啊 245 00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:40,100 那么总有一天呢啊当它窄到一定程度的时候 246 00:10:40,100 --> 00:10:44,120 这个啊呃肯定会形成突破 247 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,759 跳出这样一个三角形的区间 248 00:10:46,759 --> 00:10:50,460 然后呢啊股指会再次选择方向 249 00:10:50,460 --> 00:10:51,840 最近在美股当中啊 250 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,580 有几个比较特别的现象啊 251 00:10:54,580 --> 00:10:57,190 希望大家呢能够引起注意 252 00:10:57,190 --> 00:10:59,690 那第一个现象呢就是啊 253 00:10:59,690 --> 00:11:05,350 半导体芯片板块跟存储板块的这个额波动啊 254 00:11:05,350 --> 00:11:06,860 非常的剧烈 255 00:11:06,860 --> 00:11:08,179 我不否认啊 256 00:11:08,179 --> 00:11:10,120 这个半导体板块呃 257 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:14,000 和这个存储板块是咱们这个AI发展的呃 258 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:15,860 未来这个呃观点呢 259 00:11:15,860 --> 00:11:20,139 我在之前的视频当中也跟大家啊详细的阐述过 260 00:11:20,139 --> 00:11:23,360 也就是说未来现在都在大力发展AI吗 261 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:25,679 AI的发展这个是离不开啊 262 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,519 芯片跟这个存储的啊 263 00:11:27,519 --> 00:11:29,639 这两项呢一个是提供这个 264 00:11:29,639 --> 00:11:31,159 一个是算力啊 265 00:11:31,159 --> 00:11:32,500 一个是存储啊 266 00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:34,659 都是AI发展的基石 267 00:11:34,659 --> 00:11:36,639 也就是说长期来看啊 268 00:11:36,639 --> 00:11:41,429 啊这是这个半导体芯片板块跟存储板块儿呃 269 00:11:41,429 --> 00:11:43,029 都是很在未来啊 270 00:11:43,029 --> 00:11:44,470 都是很有发展潜力的 271 00:11:44,470 --> 00:11:48,669 但是现在咱当前这种美股行情啊之下呢 272 00:11:48,669 --> 00:11:49,669 有一个现象 273 00:11:49,669 --> 00:11:51,870 就是这两个板块的波动啊 274 00:11:51,870 --> 00:11:53,529 太剧烈了啊 275 00:11:53,529 --> 00:11:55,610 经常是跟坐过山车似的 276 00:11:55,610 --> 00:11:57,350 这个电梯一上一下的 277 00:11:57,350 --> 00:12:01,500 搞得咱们这种小心脏呢呃就容易受不了 278 00:12:01,500 --> 00:12:05,480 那么应对在呃这种呃情况的一个很好的办法 279 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,580 就是做好啊仓位管理跟仓位控制 280 00:12:08,580 --> 00:12:10,320 这也是为什么我在啊 281 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,220 最近一直在呃逐步分批的去减仓 282 00:12:14,220 --> 00:12:17,370 我AMD股票的这样一个原因 283 00:12:17,370 --> 00:12:20,789 因为呢你即便是对这两个板块啊 284 00:12:20,789 --> 00:12:23,740 芯片板块或者是存储板块长期看好啊 285 00:12:23,740 --> 00:12:25,740 你买入布局的一些股票啊 286 00:12:25,740 --> 00:12:27,500 或者说EETF啊 287 00:12:27,500 --> 00:12:29,799 你长期打算长期去持有 288 00:12:29,799 --> 00:12:32,460 但是呢如果你仓位控制不好的话 289 00:12:32,460 --> 00:12:34,259 你的仓位搞得很大 290 00:12:34,259 --> 00:12:35,789 或者买了股票啊 291 00:12:35,789 --> 00:12:36,509 乱七八糟 292 00:12:36,509 --> 00:12:38,889 各种这两个板块的股票很多的话 293 00:12:38,889 --> 00:12:42,159 那么你在这在这种剧烈的波动中啊 294 00:12:42,159 --> 00:12:43,539 咱们毕竟是人啊 295 00:12:43,539 --> 00:12:44,320 咱不是机器 296 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:45,019 也不是AI 297 00:12:45,019 --> 00:12:47,470 你的这个心脏呢就容易受不了 298 00:12:47,470 --> 00:12:49,149 心态就容易乱 299 00:12:49,149 --> 00:12:50,269 那么一乱呢 300 00:12:50,269 --> 00:12:52,830 你可能就本来你是打算长期持有的 301 00:12:52,830 --> 00:12:54,159 进行长期布局的 302 00:12:54,159 --> 00:12:56,600 可能就拿不住这个股票了啊 303 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:57,399 这仓位一大 304 00:12:57,399 --> 00:12:58,759 你受不了这个波动啊 305 00:12:58,759 --> 00:12:59,639 你拿不住了 306 00:12:59,639 --> 00:13:02,940 你可能就被这个啊波动啊给震出去了 307 00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:05,860 那不是跟你一开始的初衷就事与愿违了嘛 308 00:13:05,860 --> 00:13:06,980 就是南辕北辙了 309 00:13:06,980 --> 00:13:09,100 一开始你是打算进行长期布局 310 00:13:09,100 --> 00:13:10,559 咱们都是长期看好的 311 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:12,179 所以呢啊总而言之 312 00:13:12,179 --> 00:13:14,700 就是说这两个板块呢 313 00:13:14,700 --> 00:13:17,100 芯片板块跟这个存储板块 314 00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:19,379 是非常值得去长期布局的 315 00:13:19,379 --> 00:13:20,679 但是布局的同时 316 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,279 我希望大家呢一定控制好仓位啊 317 00:13:23,279 --> 00:13:26,259 把这个仓位呢控制到一个你可以啊 318 00:13:26,259 --> 00:13:29,399 接受能够管住你的呃心态 319 00:13:29,399 --> 00:13:30,320 管住你的手 320 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:31,259 能呃 321 00:13:31,259 --> 00:13:34,940 呃稳稳当当的去把这部分仓位给拿住的 322 00:13:34,940 --> 00:13:37,149 这样一个这个仓位水平 323 00:13:37,149 --> 00:13:38,870 第二个比较特殊的现象呢 324 00:13:38,870 --> 00:13:40,590 就是当前咱这个美股啊 325 00:13:40,590 --> 00:13:43,500 出现了一种这种翘翘板的行情 326 00:13:43,500 --> 00:13:44,399 大家发现没有 327 00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:48,399 就是我刚才提到的啊啊芯片跟存储板块啊 328 00:13:48,399 --> 00:13:49,799 经常暴涨暴跌 329 00:13:49,799 --> 00:13:53,769 但是芯片跟存储板块暴涨暴跌的同时呢 330 00:13:53,769 --> 00:13:55,690 其他有一些弱势板块 331 00:13:55,690 --> 00:13:56,850 比如说软件板块 332 00:13:56,850 --> 00:13:59,220 或者是其他一些弱势板块或者股票啊 333 00:13:59,220 --> 00:14:02,500 在芯片和存储猛涨的时候啊 334 00:14:02,500 --> 00:14:04,029 它们呢可能就下跌 335 00:14:04,029 --> 00:14:07,669 在芯片跟这个存储板块啊下跌的时候 336 00:14:07,669 --> 00:14:09,669 它们反而可能是上涨的 337 00:14:09,669 --> 00:14:12,490 就是这种这两个这个呃 338 00:14:12,490 --> 00:14:15,110 强势板块跟这个弱势板块之间 339 00:14:15,110 --> 00:14:17,289 存在着这样一种跷跷板行情 340 00:14:17,289 --> 00:14:22,129 就是它不是一种啊呃一起涨一起跌的这种现象 341 00:14:22,129 --> 00:14:25,110 就是是这种跷跷板此消彼长的啊 342 00:14:25,110 --> 00:14:28,450 这样一种比较算是特殊的一种现象吧 343 00:14:28,450 --> 00:14:29,909 我觉得这种现象啊 344 00:14:29,909 --> 00:14:33,240 在咱当前这个美股呃行情之下 345 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:37,100 可能还会继续存在一定的这个时间啊 346 00:14:37,100 --> 00:14:41,190 希望呢大家呃这方面也能呃引起注意 347 00:14:41,190 --> 00:14:43,769 接下来呢我对2026下半年 348 00:14:43,769 --> 00:14:47,629 美股的走势做一波简单的展望 349 00:14:47,629 --> 00:14:49,769 2026年呢已经过半 350 00:14:49,769 --> 00:14:51,990 在2026的上半年 351 00:14:51,990 --> 00:14:53,549 标普500指数啊 352 00:14:53,549 --> 00:14:56,929 一共是上涨了9.31% 353 00:14:56,929 --> 00:14:59,690 这个已经非常接近标普500指数 354 00:14:59,690 --> 00:15:02,799 它的历史平均回报率就是10%啊 355 00:15:02,799 --> 00:15:05,440 已经非常接近10%的这个啊 356 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,139 历史平均回报率了 357 00:15:07,139 --> 00:15:10,009 那如果我们看纳指的话啊 358 00:15:10,009 --> 00:15:14,409 纳斯达克指数呢在啊2026的上半年 359 00:15:14,409 --> 00:15:17,830 已经上涨了11.31%啊 360 00:15:17,830 --> 00:15:20,639 那纳斯达克指数在过去这些年 361 00:15:20,639 --> 00:15:22,440 这个历史平均回报率呢 362 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,970 大概是每年15%左右 363 00:15:24,970 --> 00:15:26,509 如果从这个角度来看 364 00:15:26,509 --> 00:15:28,610 虽然说纳指和标普500指数 365 00:15:28,610 --> 00:15:32,789 都还没有达到他们的啊历史平均回报率 366 00:15:32,789 --> 00:15:33,950 但是呢啊 367 00:15:33,950 --> 00:15:36,529 已经是非常接近这个历史平均回报率了 368 00:15:36,529 --> 00:15:39,230 如果按照这样一个啊剧情去走的话 369 00:15:39,230 --> 00:15:41,830 上涨空间已经是不大了 370 00:15:41,830 --> 00:15:43,289 当然有些朋友会说啊 371 00:15:43,289 --> 00:15:43,789 说老李 372 00:15:43,789 --> 00:15:44,990 那去年你看啊 373 00:15:44,990 --> 00:15:48,210 这去年美股在啊2025的下半年 374 00:15:48,210 --> 00:15:49,710 就是一直在往上涨啊 375 00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:51,940 一直涨到了10月底对吧 376 00:15:51,940 --> 00:15:55,799 但是去年呢跟今年情况还是非常不一样 377 00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:58,609 我之前视频里面也跟大家具体分析过 378 00:15:58,609 --> 00:16:02,710 简单来说就是去年啊在在下半年的时候 379 00:16:02,710 --> 00:16:05,090 美联储呢还是继续降息的啊 380 00:16:05,090 --> 00:16:06,250 我记得是呃 381 00:16:06,250 --> 00:16:09,029 下半年还进行了一次25个基点的降息 382 00:16:09,029 --> 00:16:13,070 但是今年呢啊就是大家也知道这个啊 383 00:16:13,070 --> 00:16:14,870 凯文沃什上来之后啊 384 00:16:14,870 --> 00:16:16,690 啊上一次会议呃 385 00:16:16,690 --> 00:16:19,370 美联储会议公布了之后啊 386 00:16:19,370 --> 00:16:23,149 这下半年基本上是你不会再降息了啊 387 00:16:23,149 --> 00:16:24,830 甚至现在很大的概率 388 00:16:24,830 --> 00:16:28,250 可能下半年会有一次25个基点的加息 389 00:16:28,250 --> 00:16:31,059 那我一直跟大家强调啊 390 00:16:31,059 --> 00:16:34,639 这个美联储降息呢是对咱们股市非常利好的 391 00:16:34,639 --> 00:16:38,809 而反反过来加息是会对咱们的这个股市呢 392 00:16:38,809 --> 00:16:40,509 造成一定的打击的 393 00:16:40,509 --> 00:16:42,070 所以咱们步入下半年 394 00:16:42,070 --> 00:16:47,610 我们对整个美股行情啊也不能太啊过于乐观 395 00:16:47,610 --> 00:16:52,220 咱们呢要做好这种啊股市持续震荡 396 00:16:52,220 --> 00:16:56,379 或者说啊一直是这种走猴市行情的 397 00:16:56,379 --> 00:16:58,289 这样一种心理准备 398 00:16:58,289 --> 00:17:00,169 那在这样一种行情之下 399 00:17:00,169 --> 00:17:02,649 我们该如何去操作呢 400 00:17:02,649 --> 00:17:05,529 啊这是可能是朋友们最关心的一个问题啊 401 00:17:05,529 --> 00:17:08,549 其实这个问题呢咱们也是老生常谈啊 402 00:17:08,549 --> 00:17:12,269 在这种一股市横盘震荡或者是猴市啊 403 00:17:12,269 --> 00:17:15,180 上上下下上窜下跳的这种行情当中 404 00:17:15,180 --> 00:17:18,900 其实我们最好的方式就是敌动我不动啊 405 00:17:18,900 --> 00:17:21,449 也就是说我们保持好啊 406 00:17:21,449 --> 00:17:23,599 一定的啊股票持仓 407 00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:26,700 只要你手里的这个股票都是比较优质啊 408 00:17:26,700 --> 00:17:30,789 基本面良好的这些股票或者说是ETF 409 00:17:30,789 --> 00:17:35,329 然后同时呢你要呃留有额足够的现金跟子弹 410 00:17:35,329 --> 00:17:38,150 大家看这次我减仓完AAMD之后啊 411 00:17:38,150 --> 00:17:40,579 我的现金储备又有所增加 412 00:17:40,579 --> 00:17:43,109 从之前6万多的这个现金 413 00:17:43,109 --> 00:17:45,470 现在呢达到额现金的储备 414 00:17:45,470 --> 00:17:47,829 已经达到了7万美金以上啊 415 00:17:47,829 --> 00:17:49,690 现金更加的充足了 416 00:17:49,690 --> 00:17:52,609 咱们的心里呢也是更加有底了 417 00:17:52,609 --> 00:17:54,769 保证一定股票持仓的同时 418 00:17:54,769 --> 00:17:57,549 留有足够的现金跟子弹 419 00:17:57,549 --> 00:17:59,089 做好两手准备啊 420 00:17:59,089 --> 00:17:59,809 进可攻 421 00:17:59,809 --> 00:18:00,739 退可守 422 00:18:00,739 --> 00:18:02,038 涨了喝汤啊 423 00:18:02,038 --> 00:18:03,759 跌了呢啊加仓 424 00:18:03,759 --> 00:18:04,880 那有些朋友会说了 425 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,019 说老李呢如果在这种股市横盘震荡 426 00:18:08,019 --> 00:18:10,559 上上下下的这种猴市当中啊 427 00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:13,259 那我如果去做高抛低吸 428 00:18:13,259 --> 00:18:16,740 这个呃做这种波段啊 429 00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:18,099 高买呃 430 00:18:18,099 --> 00:18:19,500 哥不是低买高卖 431 00:18:19,500 --> 00:18:21,599 那我不是赚的更多更香嘛 432 00:18:21,599 --> 00:18:26,009 但是呢这可只是咱们理想中的一个状态啊 433 00:18:26,009 --> 00:18:27,769 高抛低吸说着容易 434 00:18:27,769 --> 00:18:29,558 做起来呢很难啊 435 00:18:29,558 --> 00:18:30,959 如果你做得好啊 436 00:18:30,959 --> 00:18:34,019 你可能真的能够呃在这个呃 437 00:18:34,019 --> 00:18:36,439 呃喉市横盘震荡的过程中呢 438 00:18:36,439 --> 00:18:40,329 吃到这种啊波段的一些这个利润啊 439 00:18:40,329 --> 00:18:41,950 真的能够实现高抛低吸 440 00:18:41,950 --> 00:18:44,309 但是大多数的朋友我相信啊 441 00:18:44,309 --> 00:18:48,240 啊可能会在这个啊经常的啊频繁操作 442 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,539 或者我所谓的这种骚操骚操作当中呢 443 00:18:51,539 --> 00:18:52,920 会犯不少的错误 444 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,559 最后呢你可能会发现你自己的操作很多都是啊 445 00:18:56,559 --> 00:18:57,709 低抛呃 446 00:18:57,709 --> 00:19:00,929 高息就是说白了就是追涨杀跌 447 00:19:00,929 --> 00:19:04,299 那只会啊增加你的损失 448 00:19:04,299 --> 00:19:05,819 所以呢大道至简 449 00:19:05,819 --> 00:19:10,200 咱们就用最笨的方法做好仓位跟风险管理啊 450 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:14,470 老老实实的在这个市场当中啊继续呆着啊 451 00:19:14,470 --> 00:19:17,138 也就是我经常所说的stay in the market 452 00:19:17,138 --> 00:19:21,078 那么接下来呢我会像之前一样继续来更新视频 453 00:19:21,078 --> 00:19:22,959 给大家做心灵马杀鸡 454 00:19:22,959 --> 00:19:26,430 所以在美股投资的这条路上啊 455 00:19:26,430 --> 00:19:29,309 有老李陪伴你并不孤单 456 00:19:29,309 --> 00:19:29,789 妥了 457 00:19:29,789 --> 00:19:33,029 今天咱这期视频乱七八糟说了一大堆 458 00:19:33,029 --> 00:19:35,309 那视频能坚持看到这儿的 459 00:19:35,309 --> 00:19:38,359 相信都是老李的铁粉忠粉啊 460 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:39,099 依照惯例 461 00:19:39,099 --> 00:19:42,019 还是求各位粉丝一键三连点赞 462 00:19:42,019 --> 00:19:43,420 评论加转发 463 00:19:43,420 --> 00:19:46,779 另外抓紧时间把老李这个频道给订阅回来 464 00:19:46,779 --> 00:19:48,539 这样以后老李再发新视频 465 00:19:48,539 --> 00:19:50,109 或者是开直播的时候啊 466 00:19:50,109 --> 00:19:52,529 你都会第一时间的收到通知 467 00:19:52,529 --> 00:19:55,430 那咱们今天这场心灵马杀鸡就做到这儿 468 00:19:55,430 --> 00:19:56,730 感谢大家的收看 469 00:19:56,730 --> 00:19:58,940 让我们下期再见
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