【NaNa说美股】20260708又幸福了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是7月8号

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周三

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受周东局势再度升级影响

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国际油价上升

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美股震荡收市

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三大股指涨跌不一

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纳指小幅收涨

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标普微跌

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道指呢被传统周期板块拖累

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跌超1%

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从市场内部结构来看

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今天的盘面比指数看起来要弱得多

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下跌的个股数量明显多于上涨个股

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市场的赚钱效应并不好

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板块热力图红多绿少哈

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只有少数大型科技股

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还有半导体在支撑着指数

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大金融房地产

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航空航天等板块普遍承压

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市场观望情绪浓厚

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昨天美军刚刚对伊朗发动了军事打击

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以回应伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡附近船只行动

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今天在土耳其举行的北约峰会上

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川普又表示

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自己对伊朗非常不满

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双方此前的停火协议已经结束

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美军今晚可能再次狠狠打击伊朗

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消息一出呢

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美股三大股指集体低开

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纳指早盘一度跌超1%

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风险资产普遍遭到了抛售

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到了中午

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川普又换了一套相对温和的说法

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表示美国不会与伊朗爆发第二次战争

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也不会发动持久战

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只有在伊朗再次袭击船只的时候

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美国才会快速反击

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而且任何军事行动都会迅速结束

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于是呢这个市场情绪又迅速修复了

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指数一路收复失地

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类似的剧情

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这几个月已经不知道上演多少遍了色彩

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现在对于川普的发言

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已经形成了一套固定的交易模式

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就是先恐慌再观察

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最后再决定到底信不信

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也许今晚真的会打

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也许又会变成哎呀

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有人求着我别打

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所以就取消了行动

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市场早已习惯这种高频反转

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今天VIX波动率指数冲高回落哈

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盘中最高一度飙升18%

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随后呢这个随着情绪的回稳嗯

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涨幅最终收窄的只有5%

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这说明市场虽然仍会对突发消息做出短线反应

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主要还是那些量化机器人哈

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但是恐慌情绪持续的时间越来越短

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资金呢也没有出现真正意义上的踩踏

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我觉得美股市场对于美伊冲突已经脱敏了

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相比中东那边的破事

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现在真正牵动市场神经的还是AI和半导体

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之所以今天盘前反应那么大

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已经较6月的高点下跌了约23%

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进入了通常定义的技术性熊市区间

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脱离了结压力集中爆发

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所以大家就唉担心

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会不会又影响到这个美股半导体这一边

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但是今天开盘之后

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美股半导体集体回升了

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资金回流买入

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所以随着这个股价的反弹呢

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呃恐慌情绪也就逐渐消退了

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而是信心开始恢复了一些

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受到国际油价上涨影响

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美国10年七国债收益率

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今天日内一度逼近4.6%

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单凭这个收益率水平哈

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川普最后大概率还是会搭扣

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我们之前就说过嘛

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4.5%是美国经济和美股估值的承重墙

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收益率一旦持续站稳在4.5%以上

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那高估值成长股的估值压力就会迅速的增加嗯

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融资成本也会继续抬升

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市场风险偏好就会下降

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最近半导体板块持续回调

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本质上也是资金主动降低杠杆

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降低估值暴露的过程

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而不仅仅只是消息面的影响

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如果收益率继续维持高位

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无论川普最后还是否扩大军事行动

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后面都会找机会释放一些温和言论

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来安抚市场的

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比如宣布军事目标已经完成

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局势已经得到了控制等等哈

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否则的话这个债券市场带来的压力

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最终还是会反馈到股市

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费城半导体指数今天呢迎来了技术性反弹

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重新站回50日均线

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暂时获得了一口喘息的机会

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不过目前指数依然运行在所有短期均线下方

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整体仍属于反弹修复哈

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而不是重新进入强势上涨趋势

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从成交量来看

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今天上涨过程中量能呢并没有明显的放大

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说明资金更多还是逢低回补

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而不是新增资金大举进场

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只有后续能够继续放量

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并且收复月均线呃

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重新形成短期均线多头排列

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这一轮调整呢才算是真正的结束

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否则的话仍有再次回踩确认支撑的可能

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另外本周五SK海力士就要正式登陆美股啦

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可惜我录完这期视频之后

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就要出发去海岛度假一周了哈

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呃不能够和大家一起见证这个历史时刻了

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法国这几天又要高温了

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出去避暑

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下个周47月16号我回来之后就恢复更新

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这个周末的会员内容呢也暂停一期

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标普500指数

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今天最低刚好回踩50日均线附近点获得支撑

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重新收了回来

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盘中走了一个深V

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不过目前仍运行在5日均线下方

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由于最近一个月市场持续高位震荡

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均线不断缠绕

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并没有形成多头发散或者空头发散的排列

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所以呢

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均线系统目前发出的这些趋势信号并不明确哈

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参考意义不大

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在这种均线粘合阶段

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今天涨上去

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明天又跌回来

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不能够过度的去解读这个单日的涨跌

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QQ今天虽然低开高走

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日K线收出一根小阳线

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担任行在跌破的三角形外侧下行

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风险暂时还没有完全的解除

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后面仍需要继续观察

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是否能够重新站回到这个三角形内部

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纳斯达克综合指数

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这边的日线走势与QQ呢略有不同

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目前正在上升趋势中的下降三角形里面运行

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多空双方不断的拉锯

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通常来说

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这种形态最后会按照原来的趋势向上突破

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大多数情况下

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指数会在三角形内部走完五次震荡后

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向上突破边线

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目前指数已经在走第五段整理了

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如果后面再次打到下影线哈

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呃对于激进投资者来说是左侧买点

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虽然价格比较好

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但是呢有风险嗯

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因为向下跌破的概率虽然很小哈

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但是也存在这种可能性

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并不是没有更安全的

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右侧买点是等指数回踩确认支撑之后再拉起来

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向上突破了

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然后再跟进嗯

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毕竟这个下降三角形呢它属于弱势整理形态嗯

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一旦这个向下跌破了

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获利盘和止损盘往往会形成共振哈

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短时间内这个跌幅就会迅速的进一步扩大

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英伟达今天终于硬气了一回

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股价逆势上涨

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重新突破了200美元关

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同时占上了月均线

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结束了此前连续十个交易日的震荡走势

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所以今天全靠它来撑大盘

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0.618

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黄金分割线和这个200日均线双重支撑呢

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死死的守住了多头的底裤哈

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这也是今天能够率先反弹的重要基础

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同时股价突破200美元之后呃

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就部分程序化交易

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还有趋势

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资金呢重新开始回流

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也带动了这个成交量有所改善

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消息面上

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根据the information援引知情人士消息

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阿里巴巴字节跳动和deep seek等集团

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购买有限数量的英伟达H200芯片

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以缓解因为AI芯片需求激增导致短缺

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但是呢总量预计不足20万克

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不到几在此前申请数量的一半

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但至少这意味着中国市场的需求仍然存在

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为市场呢重新打开了一些想象空间

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而且这个利好的发布时间点哈

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也确实十分的巧妙

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就在英伟达美股一哥的位置

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再次受到苹果强势挑战的时候

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这英伟达终于迎来了新的催化剂

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前几天这两家公司市值差距已经缩小到呃

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只有2000亿美元了

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而去年呢8月份双方的差距还高达大约1.3

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7万亿美元哈

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过去一年资金从单纯压住英伟达这个龙头

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逐渐扩散到整个AI产业链

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越来越多资金开始配置更广泛的半导体赛道

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而英伟达呢反而成为了机构调仓再平衡

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的重要资金来源

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就是俗称那个提款机呀

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嗯或者血包

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不过呢

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这两天英伟达的整个半导体普遍调整背景下哈

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却展现出了异常的强的这个韧性

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无论是资金重新避险回流空头财报前集中回补

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还是估值已经跌出了吸引力

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嗯目前这个英伟达远期市盈率只有18倍

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甚至低于标普500的20倍

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也低于纳值100的23倍

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比大盘还便宜

217
00:09:31,730 --> 00:09:34,649
这反正不管以上哪个原因

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00:09:34,649 --> 00:09:37,029
都说明下方的承接嗯

219
00:09:37,029 --> 00:09:39,480
资金依然相当的积极

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接下来真正决定走势的还是财报以及AI

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资本开支指引行那些四大客户

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四个巨头

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meta谷歌

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微软和那个亚马逊

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看他们是不是继续烧钱买显卡

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希望这次还能够不仅仅是技术反弹

227
00:09:57,259 --> 00:10:01,250
而是真正的演变成新一轮的上涨行情了

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00:10:01,250 --> 00:10:03,289
博通股价今年也表现不错

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股价呢跳空高开

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并且一路维持强势

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此前一直在月均线下走低

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今天借助消息刺激

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00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:12,578
成功站上了月均线

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00:10:12,578 --> 00:10:15,499
资金重新流入算力硬件板块

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00:10:15,499 --> 00:10:18,339
成交量呢也较前几日明显放大

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00:10:18,339 --> 00:10:21,158
说明机构对消息面的认可度较高

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消息面上

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这个苹果宣布与博通达成了一项

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为期多年的战略合作协议

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预计采购规模将会超过300亿美元

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根据协议补充

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将为苹果定制设计

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并且生产专用硅芯片以及先进无线连接组件

244
00:10:38,820 --> 00:10:42,100
嗯这个推动超过150亿美

245
00:10:42,100 --> 00:10:44,059
芯片在美国本土制造

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对于市场而言

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这不仅意味着苹果继续加强供应链本土化

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也进一步强化了博通未来几年

249
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AI网络基础设施和无线嗯

250
00:10:55,230 --> 00:10:58,029
这个连接业务的成长预期

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自从space x上市后

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整个太空板块的炒作热度呢反而降温了

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主力高位出货之后哈

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就任由他们的股价自由落体

255
00:11:08,980 --> 00:11:12,179
小月亮LUNI的管理层也很精啊

256
00:11:12,179 --> 00:11:13,740
在行情最火的时候

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00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:15,440
连续融资增发

258
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,220
把市场情绪呢利用到了极致

259
00:11:18,220 --> 00:11:21,500
结果从5月28号高点开始哈

260
00:11:21,500 --> 00:11:24,620
这个股价已经累计回撤了约66%

261
00:11:24,620 --> 00:11:26,350
但还是太高了

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00:11:26,350 --> 00:11:29,570
咱们不能只看它从高位跌下来跌了多少

263
00:11:29,570 --> 00:11:33,179
你还得看他前面是从什么位置涨上去的

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00:11:33,179 --> 00:11:36,080
如果未来能够跌回到八九块美元

265
00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,299
我才会重新考虑进场啊

266
00:11:38,299 --> 00:11:42,519
美国人对于太空一直都有一种特殊的情怀

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00:11:42,519 --> 00:11:45,179
不知道是不是因为他们第一批登月的

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00:11:45,179 --> 00:11:47,279
所以呢每隔一年半载

269
00:11:47,279 --> 00:11:51,600
或者遇到美联储重新开启流动性宽松的时候

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就大水漫灌的时候哈

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太空板块总会重新被资金炒作议论

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00:11:58,049 --> 00:11:59,919
但在重新炒作之前

273
00:11:59,919 --> 00:12:01,879
必然是暴力挤泡沫

274
00:12:01,879 --> 00:12:03,899
这个挤到让人绝望的

275
00:12:03,899 --> 00:12:07,759
还有曾经红极一时的planet labs

276
00:12:07,759 --> 00:12:10,059
股价如今呢也同样腰斩了

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00:12:10,059 --> 00:12:12,970
这些太空概念股的走势高度一致

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00:12:12,970 --> 00:12:17,870
几乎是同一批风险资金在背后这个轮动操作

279
00:12:17,870 --> 00:12:19,190
行情启动的时候呢

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00:12:19,190 --> 00:12:20,870
一起疯狂拉升

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见顶之后呢

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又几乎在同一时间开始反转向下

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00:12:25,409 --> 00:12:28,889
说明整个板块更多还是情绪驱动

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而不是基本面驱动

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谁说美股市场没有专家

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00:12:32,610 --> 00:12:33,429
没有阻力

287
00:12:33,429 --> 00:12:35,208
当然有了A股

288
00:12:35,208 --> 00:12:36,249
那才是小弟

289
00:12:36,249 --> 00:12:38,009
华尔街才是爷爷好吧

290
00:12:38,009 --> 00:12:39,969
A股那个那么变态

291
00:12:39,969 --> 00:12:41,350
都是学的华尔街

292
00:12:41,350 --> 00:12:43,629
今天日韩股市走弱

293
00:12:43,629 --> 00:12:45,549
港股的却全面爆发

294
00:12:45,549 --> 00:12:47,850
阿里巴巴大涨了11%

295
00:12:47,850 --> 00:12:50,570
其实昨天我就看到一篇机构报告了

296
00:12:50,570 --> 00:12:54,940
说最近两天随着除半导体板块出现了调整

297
00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:58,068
那个日韩美国半导体全都调整

298
00:12:58,068 --> 00:13:01,109
部分中国资金可能就会选择互利了结

299
00:13:01,109 --> 00:13:02,869
AI硬件重新回流

300
00:13:02,869 --> 00:13:07,070
此前跌幅较大的中国呃互联网龙头

301
00:13:07,070 --> 00:13:07,929
比如阿里巴巴

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00:13:07,929 --> 00:13:08,570
京东

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00:13:08,570 --> 00:13:09,839
腾讯等等

304
00:13:09,839 --> 00:13:12,119
当时我就扫了一眼哈

305
00:13:12,119 --> 00:13:13,458
没有太放在心上

306
00:13:15,719 --> 00:13:17,580
那美股都看不过来了

307
00:13:17,580 --> 00:13:20,779
这几天尤其紧盯着美观科技

308
00:13:20,779 --> 00:13:24,100
中概股一般只有偶尔手痒的时候哈

309
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才会快进快出的玩一把

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00:13:26,019 --> 00:13:28,230
再加上马上就要出去度假了

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00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:30,350
没有办法旅行途中盯盘

312
00:13:30,350 --> 00:13:31,429
所以干脆就没买

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00:13:31,429 --> 00:13:33,720
结果今天阿里直接爆拉了

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00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:34,639
哎呀没办法

315
00:13:34,639 --> 00:13:36,460
又一次华丽丽的错过了

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00:13:36,460 --> 00:13:40,149
就这中概可能真的与我就无缘了

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行今天我们就说到这里

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那我们下周四见

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